Ethereum: Still Far From Home

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about ethereum still far from Home if you guys like the content make Sure you subscribe to the channel give The video a thumbs up and also check out Into the cryptiverse premium uh into the link is also in the Description below we have several Different tiers including a free one Make sure you check it out we put out a Weekly Newsletter in the free tier let's Go ahead and jump in so ethereum is is Of course something that we have Discussed throughout many many years at This point going all the way back to 2019 when we put out videos talking About how undervalued it was not only on Its USD pair but also in a Bitcoin pair This was back when ethereum was at you Know one or two hundred dollars this is When The Ether Bitcoin evaluation was Less than 0.02 and now we still sit at At around sixteen hundred dollars and You might say well where is this you Know not so far or not far from home Coming from Of course if you follow the channel for A while you'll know what I'm referring To and it's this belief that that I that I hold of course not that I necessarily A lot of people hold but it's sort of This idea that ethereum needs to revisit Its lower logarithmic regression trend

Line before we are realistically uh or Before before I would realistically Start to think about a bull run to to Potentially new highs so the idea is That ethereum goes on these nice runs Every once in a while but it tends to Touch base at home base in between these These bull runs and we have just been Sitting outside of this level for a long Time it it almost feels like to some Degree it feels like ethereum uh is just Sort of you know just Teasing in one sense how it sits just Outside of the lower regression trend Line Now one thing I want to draw your Attention to as we talk about what is The fair value fit to quote unquote Non-bubble data and arguably it's it's This level right here that is currently At 750 okay which you might say might Cause you to raise an eyebrow and say Well wait a second that's lower than Where we went in June and I I still am Of the opinion that ethereum could go Lower than where it went back in June One of the things I think to consider Here and we've talked about this before Is sort of your 2.0 we have a Whole video series talking about what is The crypto bottom where we talk about The total cryptocurrency market Capitalization but it might be useful to Sort of hone in on ethereum specifically

To say you know what is what is Bubble teach us Um and what can what what did people go Through back then that we can Potentially learn some lessons on today And one of those things that I think you Have to think about back during Crash is that it also corresponded to a Recession and I think this is you know The biggest thing that is being Discounted by you know by a lot of People is the idea that uh there there Will not be any sustained further move To the downside in in Risk assets just Simply because of of a certain amount of Time that's gone by but I will remind You you know there are plenty of assets And even in crypto that that can put in New lows uh even well after your primary Bear Market year you think back to 2020 We a lot of a lot of cryptocurrencies Put in new lows I don't believe ethereum Was one of them uh but it actually did Come pretty close right it was sort of Like a double bottom And and maybe a slightly higher low but Bitcoins was much a much higher low uh Than ethereums I mean ethereum almost Double bottomed here One thing that is is somewhat of an Eerie comparison and you know I I fully Understand that this is dubious Speculation at its best and I'm not Asking you guys to take this to the bank

But it is something that I came across And so I thought it might be worthwhile To share and it's actually the the Valuation of the NASDAQ compared to Ethereum and and while the market cap of Course is different and one in one case You're compared you're comparing an Index and the other case you're just Comparing ethereum but I would also Argue that ethereum is is sort of like The index for the altcoin market it's The backbone of the altcoin market if Ethereum didn't exist it's hard to even Imagine what the altcoin market would Look like and I know there are a lot of Uh cryptocurrencies that sort of have Branded themselves as the ethereum Killer but I I don't think that ethereum Is going to be relinquishing the number Two spot anytime soon but in the same Way I don't think Bitcoin is going to be Relinquishing number one spot anytime Soon we always talk about or a lot of People talk about it's been a lot of Time talking about You know when is the flipping going to Occur uh this sort of stuff but the Reality of the situation is that Bitcoin Is likely going to stay number one and Ethereum is like it going to stay number Two for quite a long period of time and While that might be a boring Outlook it Is probably going to be the most likely Outlook for at least several more years

Now getting back to the dubious Speculation that I mentioned and again I'm not asking you to take this to the Bank they're not going to cash it in and I can assure you that I'm not going to Cash it in either but if you actually Look at where ethereum peaked here it's Interesting because it peaked right Around 4 800 right if you look at the High it was around 48.67 What's interesting is is the NASDAQ During crash also peaked at the Same level and while it's a coincidence To some degree it makes comparing them Somewhat easier if you look at the high On on the NASDAQ uh back in the um back In Crash so let me let me zoom In here so if you look at at the high Here on the NASDAQ during crash If we just get the the wick High here 4816 so basically what you're looking at Is ethereum going to that 4 800 level And the NASDAQ going to the 4800 level What's more interesting is if you look At the 50-week moving average and we Talked a lot about this with regards to Bitcoin but you can see that ethereum is Following a very similar path now there Have been some levels some degrees of Divergence but one of the things you'll Notice is that the NASDAQ peaked at 4 800. the rally that took us into the 50-week SMA you might notice started Just below 1100 so this was a rally that

Took the NASDAQ into the 50-week SMA This started it just below 1100 ethereum This rally here that took us into the 50-week SMA you can see also started Just below 1100. so in both cases what you'll see Is the NASDAQ dropping 77 before getting this rally into the 50-week SMA right we we see that clear As day dropping from around 4 800 down To this low here just below 1100 now Ethereum has played out somewhat Differently we know that ethereum Technically went lower back over here But one of the things to to measure here From this peak to this level here again Also about a 77 percent move to the Downside before you got that rally into The 50-week SMA Furthermore the 50-week SMA when the NASDAQ was rejected came in at just Around 1700 and what you'll notice During this rejection by the NASDAQ at 1700 it didn't just go up once and get Rejected It sort of came up we came back down we Had two red candles in a row we then Went back up and then got rejected and This process was a more or less a Distribution phase that took place over Arguably you know four to six weeks or So before really we had a a you know a Rejection that I think was believed by More people off of the 50-week estimate

Right but it took about four to six Weeks for that distribution phase on the NASDAQ to actually play out and what's Interesting again is when you look at Ethereum you're seeing a very similar Type of thing right it was a 77 move Down to this low at least that took us Into the 50-week SMA and just like the NASDAQ it was the 50-week SMA has been Right around that 1700 Mark you can see The ethereum went right above 1700 over Here and in fact the high that the NASDAQ put in back over here was around 1734 was the highest it went into to That 50 week SMA it'll more or less did A double top Ethereum going into the 50 week SMA the Highest it's gone was 17.45. so again I Know that comparing like an index to you Know to a specific asset like ethereum Is not is not necessarily the most sound Way to do it but it it does at least Make for very easy comparison between The tech stocks back then and ethereum Today I'm not saying they're the exact Same thing but you there's no denying That at least so far they've played out In a very similar manner furthermore What you may notice is that after Ethereum got rejected off of the 50-week Moving average at around 1700 it went Down to around 1300 okay so it went down To 1300 and then went back up to that 1500 about 1550 or so maybe a wick

Slightly higher close to that 1600 1600 Level but again from thirteen hundred up To about 15.50 what's interesting with Ethereum again and we can make these Comparisons all day long If you just sort of look at at these at These trend lines that ethereum has been Following for quite some time so if you Just sort of look at the sort of the Lower bound and the upper bound these Trend lines have you know basically been Holding support and resistance ever Since this bear Market really got Started a series of of lower Highs but Also a series of higher lows now Remember the NASDAQ went down to around 1300 before bouncing back up to 1550. if Ethereum were to find a rejection here Off the 50-week moving average and move Back down to that 1300 level or so You're essentially looking at somewhere Around this trend line right and then a Bounce back up could correspond to what The NASDAQ did right where it tried Again another go At the 50 week SMA ultimately to to just Simply get rejected and so I think you Could argue that there's some validity To this comparison especially given the Macroeconomic conditions that we're Facing the fact that the Federal Reserve Is remaining hawkish Um uh and and of course they they're More or less compelled to stay that way

Because of the the inflation that's Still you know surprising to the upside But if ethereum were to come back in to This sort of 1300 range pop back up to You know 1500 or so this could easily Play out in a very similar manner as the NASDAQ now I suppose the question that Is raised by all this is well if Ethereum peaked at 4 800 which is where The NASDAQ peaked right the NASDAQ and Ethereum essentially both peaked at Around 4 800 and so far there have been A lot of comparisons to show that there Are some similarities there are some Differences as well one of them being That ethereum put in a low over here and This was a higher low right this was a Higher low the Counterpoint of course The Counterpoint to that is to say that It's different as well still from the High going into this rally to the 50 Week both asset you know both assets Were down about 77 percent from this Level to this rally so ethereum just Capitulated a lot more during this Initial sell-off okay so where does that What what question does it raise right I Mean there's got to be a question that It raises I'm sure in everyone's mind As well if if they peaked at the same Level at 4800 and they had a rally to The 50 week that started at the same Level just below 1100 and the rejection Potential rejection by ethereum we're

Not sure yet but if the rejection Occurred at around 1700 off of the 50-week out some may then what was the Ultimate low for the NASDAQ right where Was the end of the bear market and and When could could investors back then Have finally said all right the bear Market's over and history would have Would have shown that they were right Well go take a look at the NASDAQ where Did It ultimately bottom It ultimately It's final low was around 7.95. now 795 Is interesting in in some sense because It is lower than where ethereum already Went and I I I do actually think there Is a good chance ethereum will go lower Than the June low okay at the very least I would say a double bottom but I'd say It's more likely in my in my opinion That it'll actually go lower than this Wick over here and go below the the Eight Um the 880 level So The NASDAQ bottomed at around seven Ninety five 7.95 now think about that Number for a minute 785. it's about a Hundred dollars lower than ethereum Already went and that's not to say that Ethereum will find a bottom there it Could go lower and we've talked about Potential reasons that it could go lower But one interesting thing to look at is To pull up our lower logarithmic

Regression trend line fit to again quote Unquote non-bubble data and when you do That the fair value fit to non-level Data is currently 782. That's where home is right I mean you Could argue that that the second floor Is is all the way up at at 1100 and the Basement's all the way down at 500 but Home more or less is right around uh 782. 782 dollars So remember when we first talked about This pack over here home was at like six Hundred dollars now it's it's closer you Know to that 782 level and again you Could argue that You know there's there's some leeway in Both directions but the reason why it's Interesting is because if the NASDAQ Were to give us any insight into Ethereum's ultimate low 7.95 7.95 for Ethereum Would be let me just draw the trend line Across 75 would be somewhere around there which Is is interesting because it's actually Right around what the fair value is Right now corresponding to you know Non-bubble data again it's slightly Higher because as I said that the fair Value of ease based on this logarithmic Regression trend line is actually at 782 So it's not even hasn't even reached That point but we know that the Logarithmic congression trend line of

Course is a monotonically increasing Function so it's only a matter of time Before it would be at those levels now In the same way you can see that Ethereum can experience more room to the Downside than the fair value we've we've Gone below the fair value before so it Could theoretically happen again uh if You look back over here in in 2016 you Could say the fair value is eight Dollars but we actually went down to six Dollars You know I mean now it's essentially Just a hundred times that right instead Of eight and six it's 800 and 600 right If you look back over here you can see That the fair value was at 51 cents and We actually went down to 38 cents you Probably uh those are some numbers that Are probably somewhat hard to hear Um over here you know we were at the Fair value at 193 we still had a Capitulation down to 89 so just because You know that's where ultimately the Fair value is doesn't mean you can't go Below it and if you were to see some Type of capitulation like this play out Again uh then you could overshoot the Fair value to the downside right rather Than stopping it at 7.95 like the NASDAQ Did you could in fact go lower I mean Just like just like ethereum went lower In its initial plunge to this level Right I mean this level here was an 82

Correction okay this was an 82 Correction whereas the NASDAQ to that First main low before the rally to the 50 week that first main correction for For the NASDAQ was only about a 71 Correction and then the next one was a 77 correction and the final one was an 83 to 84 correction so if ethereum is Going to go down 83 to 84 percent that Puts it also around that fair value fit To again quote unquote non-bubble data So I would still argue that they're in My mind at least again I could be wrong I've been wrong about you know plenty of Things Um But in my mind at least there does seem Like there is somewhat you know some Compelling evidence here to suggest that Ethereum is at the very least going to Revisit those sub 1000 levels at some Point this year and in my mind likely Going to go below where it was back in June of 2022. So that's my general opinion on it Um you know the the sort of the Invalidation levels I suppose Would be a deviation from the NASDAQ and What would that look like well I think You'd have to see ethereum break above The 50-week SMA but if ethereum is Unable to to Really break above the 50-week SMA in a sustained way then how Is this not just you know 2.0

And this is a video series we've been Talking about for over a year now where We've compared Bowl to the Crypto Bowl we've compared the drawdowns In Bitcoin and the total market cap to To what the NASDAQ did and in this video We're specifically comparing the NASDAQ To ethereum and I thought it was Interesting that that you know the Actual levels more or less correspond to The same thing right like the NASDAQ at 4 800 uh the rally to the 50 weeks Started at around you know just below 1100 in both cases And so that that sort of leaves that Final question well if the top was the Same and the reality to the 50 week was The same are we going to see the same Thing occur at the 50 week sort of like A four to six weeks distribution phase Which seems like it could be playing out Followed by the final Plunge Into the Depths of the crypto verse where Hopefully we get our ethereum Accumulation phase of a lifetime videos Uh we'll have to wait and find out but Um Hopefully you you enjoyed this video uh Leave a comment down below if you if you Have any any insight into into ethereum Maybe you have something you want me to Take a closer look at but this is what I'm seeing uh this is what I I think we Need to be aware of this is the downside

Risk of course and you guys know we talk About the downside risk quite a bit just Because you know how easy it is to get Burned in crypto a lot of lessons can be Learned I think during phases like this But all it takes is a few months of a Phase like this to sort of forget all Those Lessons Learned and if something Like this were to play out once again Um you know you would you could sort of See the same uh those same lessons come Back uh very quickly if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe give The video thumbs up we dive into the Crypto various premium at into the and I'll see you guys Next time bye


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