Ethereum: Far From Home

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about ethereum far from home if You guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and check out into the Cryptoverse premium at into the we do have several Different tiers available make sure you Check it out we also do have a free tier If you're interested let's go ahead and Jump in so we've been following ethereum For quite some time in fact the very First video on my channel is is about The ethereum Bitcoin valuation where we Identified ethereum's Bitcoin valuation As being severely undervalued when it Was at .017 now today the ethereum Bitcoin valuation since quite a bit Higher and so we will touch on that as Well but I want to first by talking About the USD evaluation and where it Currently sets so right now ethereum is Sitting just around fifteen hundred and Thirty nine dollars and you know if you Look at this most recent move to the Upside it's actually not that far away Or that dissimilar from this move we saw Back in October of 2022 so so far it has Not yet broken out of that range but I Will go back to the thing that I've Spoken about before and that is the idea Of it being far from home in the sense That a sustained Bull Run in my opinion

And I understand this does not make me a Popular person right like I don't need To be reminded but my opinion is that a Sustained bull market for ethereum Will not occur until ethereum spends Some time At home base okay and you know I Understand that we've sort of been Flirting with that level for a while but To my surprise in fact and to ethereum's Credit it has remained much more Resilient than I thought it would be if You actually look at this line I mean It's basically just stayed right out Right outside of it you know it's almost Trending just above the again the fair Value logarithmic regression line fit to Non-bubble data this idea of fitting it To areas that are not part of a manic Bubble phase but part of an apathetic The tourists are gone phase right so fit It to that phase that fit it to those Phases where you know all these people Have left because that's where you Identify you know the the the true deep Value of ethereum on its USD pair one of The things I've mentioned before is of Course there's no guarantees of anything Specifically happening I mean you guys Know my bias in the matter and it's hard To separate myself sometimes from my Bias when I when I look at this stuff But again that's why I'm saying look I Understand that the ethereum valuation

Has been remaining quite resilient on Its USD pair and you know despite that I Still do think that it is more likely Than not that eventually it's going to Go into this lower regression band Whether that means we go to it or it Comes to us of course is up for Interpretation I think it's more likely Going to eventually break to the Downside and spend some time down here But if it does come up to us it's going To take a long time for it to actually Get there if you look at say like the Fair value you know for it to actually Get up to the current price if we were To sort of estimate It would take a long time you know You're talking about another two years Or so before the fair value would get up To that level so you know while it might Be somewhat more attractive for us to Just go to the fair value I would argue It would make it would actually be a lot Less painful for us to just sort of come Down here spend some time and then blast Off again and create a new Mountain Within our ethereum mountain range so You know I'll continue to look at this From the perspective of ethereum is is Still sitting just outside of of where It of where home is for it and and just Reminding myself that ethereum typically Touches base in this area before we go On another sustained Bull Run so far we

Have been unable to to really go on a Sustainable run as much as the exciting As much as the price action might be Exciting in the grand scheme of things You know it's either been a lower high Or in this case so far Um a similar High doesn't mean we can't Break up but even again I mean even if It does that it doesn't mean that this Isn't some just big huge horse Horizontal you know consolidation rate For ultimately figuring out which way it Wants to go now the more important thing By far in my opinion is the Bitcoin Valuation of ethereum okay The reason I say that is because when You navigate crypto it's always Worthwhile to consider what is the risk That you're taking on and you know Before I get into the Bitcoin valuation And my thoughts on the Bitcoin valuation I do want to say a few Positive things because I I think during You know phases of the market like this It can be misconstrued my macro opinion Of ethereum and and where I ultimately Think it's going first of all I will say That ethereum in my opinion is Considered a blue chip like Bitcoin so I Think Bitcoin and ethereum are the Blue Chips furthermore I I think the I you Know there are no such thing as an eth Killer right they don't exist you know I Mean there's other projects and there's

Other projects that might do things uh In certain ways that you know some People might say are better but I I Still don't think any of them uh compare You know to to ethereum in terms of in Terms of where ethereum is and I'm I'm Excluding Bitcoin right so Bitcoin is Its own thing right so Bitcoin is its Own thing and then if you were to lump In ethereum with all the other all coins I would say ethereum is is you know by Far more more advanced in a lot of Different ways but also just you know Fundamentally Um is I mean so fundamentally I think It's better in a lot of different ways But the other way that I think it's it's Better Because it's you know it's still the Test of time right it's been around for A long time it's been around since 2015 And I mean I might that might not sound Like that long ago but believe it or not It is 2023 so it was eight years ago Right so it's been around almost eight Years now and and it's still the test of Time it has been at number two for a Long time and I think it's likely going To stay at number two for a long time Okay so I want to talk a little bit here About the Bitcoin valuation of ethereum And and we'll sort of we'll sort of do a A recap of what I have previously said And and you know

To remind people so so I turned bearish On the ethereum Bitcoin valuation right Here uh I felt like a genius for a few Weeks because like right after I traded The east of Bitcoin Um it sold off so I felt like a genius Right and then it just came right back Up so you know essentially we've we've Sort of been oscillating around this Range and and my ultimate opinion and it Has been for quite some time and I even Have videos on this you know at the Merge right is that the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation is sort of playing out the Same thing that the Bitcoin USD played Out back in in 2021 so you're just Having sort of like this one two Secondary top right so you have this Distribution phase over here you know The the Wyckoff distribution just like Bitcoin USD it comes down to this area Right just like Bitcoin USD in the Summer of 2021 pops back up first top Second top What does that remind you of you go take A look at at Bitcoin USD so let me go Ahead and hide the regression line and We'll pull up I'll pull up bitcoinusd Again switch this to the Daily time Frame And same idea right you have the one Two three four right the initial Sell-off and then that sort of double

Top that one-two punch uh the final Distribution and then just want to Slowly deteriorates from there Same thing for ether Bitcoin right the One two three four Wyckoff distribution Phase that first initial sell-off the One two punch to sort of finalize the Secondary distribution phase and then From there it's just been more or less a Series of mostly lower Highs but you Could you could say that this was Actually a higher high now to zoom in Here on the ethereum Bitcoin valuation Now there were a couple of trend lines I Was I was following not that they're That important but Um arguably we've you know ethereum's Bitcoin valuation has in fact broken Support now does that mean that it goes Straight down probably not right it'll It'll probably bounce around for a Little bit you can see even over here in May it bounced around for a little bit After having this initial sell-off and Then it bounced around in this area for Four weeks before ultimately breaking Down much further could it also bounce Back up and retest the trend line or or Even go even higher I don't know if my Heart can take it at this point but yeah Anything's possible Right anything's Possible but the point is is you know it Really has just been slowly moving down Over the course of you know basically

Since September the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation has been slowly moving down And I think all of these pumps are just Sort of working as a way to get people To just fomo back in only for only for It to break down once again the other Trend line that I was at least looking At was you know it was sort of following This for a little bit right sort of Bouncing off here but now it's Fallen Below and one of the things that we've Discussed on my channel of course is the Idea that the dominance of Bitcoin Remains in this phase where it's more Likely to keep going up okay and one of The things that the Bitcoin USD does When it pumps like it has been and the Dominance goes higher is it gets some of The other cryptocurrencies like ethereum Off of their support Okay so you know ethereum was on the Support on its Bitcoin pair but then When you get a very strong Bitcoin pump It can take eth off of its support Against Bitcoin and then so that when The next time Bitcoin has a correction There's nowhere for ethereum to hide Because it already fell off its support So the main level that you might look to To provide support it's no longer there Because we already fell below it now Arguably a diagonal support is is not Really much of a great support I think a Lot of people would probably agree with

That you might look more towards you Know sort of horizontal support areas so Perhaps the 0.065 area is going to be a Potential area of interest and a spot Where Bitcoin might see some short-term Relief but one of the things I want to Do Is provide some perspective on on sort Of maybe a macro outlook for the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation so one way to Potentially view this there's two ways Right I think there's two ways to really View the ethereum Bitcoin valuation that Have the most credibility okay now There's going to be a thousand different Ways you can view it but I think there's Two main credible ways to view it the First way is a more is the more Optimistic way in my well I guess you Could argue the Third Way the most Optimistic way is that this never breaks Down and this is just a consolidation Phase before breaking back up I don't Think that's the most likely outcome so I'm going to talk about the two other Most you know the most likely outcomes The more optimistic outcome for me for The ethereum Bitcoin valuation would be A path that looks something like this so Where it comes back down maybe by March To this lower range down here back down To you know 0.05 it perhaps bounces back Up in the April and May time frame Um and then and then sort of sells off

Going into the summer historically Ethereum doesn't really have great Summer returns although that's not true For every single summer and then perhaps Comes back down to this region this and Then and then perhaps building out a Strong base down here and then and then Sort of coming back up and and working Its way back up to new local highs this Would be a potential outcome that I Think has some credibility and and one Way to view this and it's not that Dissimilar from you know from say like The Ether USD pair If you think about the etherusd pair We have this logarithmic regression band Again fit to quote unquote non-bubble Data where it returns home before a new Bull market can begin Okay so let's suppose that ethereum's Bitcoin valuation is the same thing Right again is it dubious yeah but again That fits in perfectly with the content Of the channel so let's just imagine for A moment that the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation is on some you know trajectory Like this where it you know rather than Rather than being an oscillator it is a It's on a sort of like this logarithmic Regression trend line where it Occasionally returns to home base before Starting another Bull Run if that's the Case then you could see it return back Down to the point you know

0.03.04 level for some time only to Begin another bull run where it actually Takes another stab at taking out these You know these local highs and and you Know one way to view that would be Something like this right where you have This let me delete all this stuff so we Can see this a little bit better where You might have some massive move And I mean you know if you sort of you'd Have to sort of ignore these two peaks Over here but if you were to look at it Like this Right so if you look at it like this Then you could argue that okay well There is still some room to do this to Bounce back up maybe a comeback down Here to these lower levels to bounce Around and then to maybe you know come Back up here by 2020 late 2024 or maybe Like early 2025 where you get another You know Um ethereum tsunami in in early 2025. Something like that like you know Something like we had back over here but We we build off of a stronger base right So to me that would be the more Optimistic view okay and it might it Would also potentially correspond to you Know being four years later after this Sort of September low so this September Low again is is the August September is Again it's the first video on my channel And it was where we identified the

Ethereum Bitcoin valuation as being Severely undervalued if something like That were to happen say you know this Q3 Or something it could be a a repeat of History this would be I think the the More optimistic view it's not the most Optimistic view because the most Optimistic view would just be someone That says you know you know Ben is is Wrong about about it breaking down and Perhaps it's just a consolidation phase Board breaks higher so of course the Most optimistic view is that we don't go Down and we just go straight up I don't think that's the most likely Outcome therefore I don't put a lot of a Lot of you know weight behind that idea Uh with regards to my own portfolio but Again I'm not I'm not you you can do You're free to do whatever you want this Is not Financial advice so this is what I would consider to be the more Optimistic scenario The more pessimistic scenario uh is to Is to assume that ethereum is an Oscillator against Bitcoin so an Oscillator would look something like This where it comes up to this range but It also sort of comes back down to the Bottom part of the range as well so this Is what an oscillator would look like Okay and there's plenty of all coins That look that have this pattern against Bitcoin they have they're they're an

Oscillator now some of them just bleed Over the macro scale just like a lot of All coins bleed against ethereum right Plenty of altcoins bleed against Ethereum over the macros go I even have A full dedicated video and a dedicated Page on my website for it's called does It bleed right and you can see does does This bleed against ethereum because a Lot of cryptocurrencies do but a lot of Cryptocurrencies also bleed against Bitcoin and so there's always a chance That a themed Bitcoin valuation is an Oscillator rather than on a on a slowly Rising logarithmic regression Channel Okay If you want to know my honest opinion Okay if I were just if you if you press Me and said well if you had to pick one What do you think I think my personal Opinion is that it's highly unlikely That ethereum will return to you know 0.017 like I don't think it's likely That it's going to come back down to These levels it could right I mean I I Would I would say that that is a Possibility if if things get really bad But I don't consider it to be the most Likely outcome I think the most likely Outcome is something again more like This where it is it's sort of just on This long Um logarithmic regression trend line so That each time you visit it the base is

Just a little bit higher right so Originally it was like 0.002 and then it Was at 0.008 and then it was at 0.017 And maybe the next time it'll be at like 0.035 or 0.0375 or 0.04 something like That I think that is the more likely Outcome Um than you know then then it being an Oscillator okay now that doesn't mean That ethereum is going to flip Bitcoin But I mean it it could mean that it at Least gets another another Stab it as some of these higher ether Bitcoin valuations right you know maybe Maybe we can get to point one in in 2025 Or something Um but that's my general view on on the Ethereum on the ethereum evaluation Uh you know I I know I know this opinion Has not has not made a lot of fans but Uh I I do want to just be honest about What I what I see in the market and you Know what I get things wrong sometimes Been wrong plenty of times the dominance The Bitcoin is taking is taking a lot Longer than I thought it was going to to Go up it is finally going up now I mean It's at 44 going on 45 and I think it Will likely continue running higher Um and I think that the altcoin market As a whole is likely going to continue Bleeding against Bitcoin and once you See the Bitcoin dominance like well Above 50 then you can at least have the

Discussion I think as to you know are Things going to stop bleeding against Bitcoin but until that time I still Think that that Bitcoin is is going to Continue to reign supreme for a while And um and still take valuations from The altcoin market not that I don't Really consider ethereum and altcoin but One of the things you'll notice is that A lot of a lot of all coins have just Been slowly bleeding back to bitcoin Like if you look at their their Bitcoin Pairs it's it's it's these all coins Losing a couple percent every single day Basically to bitcoin that can help fuel Bitcoin's rally and keep it more Elevated than the altcoin market during A phase right now and if Bitcoin were to Pump up tomorrow you'll likely see the Dominance go up but the other thing is If Bitcoin drops tomorrow you'll likely See the dominance go up And and I I think that's really you can See here just where the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation is it's still so high I would Argue it has so much room to to sort of Give back some gains here consolidate For a while right consolidate down here For a while and then try again after we Get out of of all these macro headwinds That we currently face so that's my Opinion on the ethereum USD evaluation And the ethereum Bitcoin valuation let Me know what you guys think in the

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