Ethereum Falls Below Its Bull Market Support Band

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Cryptoverse today we're going to talk About ethereum and discuss its recent Weekly close below its bull market Support band if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out intothe cryptoverse Premium at intothe cryptoverse tocom This has been a long journey we've been Discussing eth not only through the lens Of eth USD but also eth Bitcoin coin Bitcoin dominance and so on and so forth So again if you do like the content make Sure you give the video a thumbs up so We've been following eth here for a Little while especially given the Breakdown of the eth Bitcoin pair now Before we look at eth Bitcoin and how it Relates to ethusd and I'm sure most of You already know what I'm going to say Before we get to That what we're going to do first is Just go back and look at other times Where eth fell below its bullmark sport Band and we're going to look at several Different examples and then we're going To try to figure out which one is the Most fitting to the current example all Right because there's a lot of different Examples and you know some eth continue To go down and others it just bounced Right back and so first of all let's

Just take inventory on prior examples so That we know you know what we're looking At here the last time that eth felt Below its bull market support ban was Actually about 30 weeks ago or the last Time it was below the 20we estimate in 21 21 we it was about 30 weeks ago so It's been quite a while um and now we Have closed below it once Again the last time we fell below it was August of 2023 we were below the 20we Estimate a little bit before that but Remember the bull market support band is A range right it's not just the 20we Estim but it's also the 21 week EMA and As long as you're above one of them then You can argue that the asset is still Holding its bull market support band but If it's below both of them that's where You can definitively say all right it Has fallen below its bull market support Band and so when you look at this you Can see that the last time this happened Was in August of 2023 and when that Happened ethusd stayed below it for the Next nine weeks there was another Example before that though occurred in June of 2023 so kind of a similar time Frame as right now going into the summer Uh this of course occurred about one Month later than where we currently are But you can see that we had a weekly Close below the bull market support band If we zoom in right a weekly close below

The bull market support band right here And then we just got right back above it The following week those are really the Only two examples that we' even had in Years because the examples before that Of falling below the bull market support Band were essentially way back over here In April of 2022 and before that in December of 2021 so it's actually been Quite a long time now there are examples Uh in the last Market cycle where we saw Ethusd fall below the bull market Support band there's a great example Here in June of 2021 where it fell below It but then it didn't really go that Much lower before running up once again And so that is also something relevant And that was also occurred around the Same time in the year right it fell Below the bullmark sport band in June and of course we have to go back And look at the the two examples before That just so we kind of cover our bases Throughout All Phases of the market Cycle the next occurrence was uh during The pandemic crash I don't think we Should put too much weight into that Example I don't think we're going go out And say all right well there has to be a Black swine but the time before that was In July of 2019 and in that case you can See that it ended up just being a slow Bleed back to the downside that lasted For about half a year before we got

Before got back into gear so those are The examples that you can look at right You can look at 2019 where after getting Below it we hesitated there for a couple Of weeks and then went down you can look At 2020 where it was just straight below It don't really think that's the most Realistic example uh and then of course You can look at 2021 and and also late 2021 and see late 2021 it was more or less just a Systematic bleed over the next half year Kind of similar to 2019 in fact right You get below it in January and it bled Till June 2019 we got below it in in July and then it basically bled until December so about about half a year or So and so the question is where are we Now right what can we expect and again If you're only looking at its USD Valuation it might lead you to think That it's at different spots than Perhaps it actually is for instance I Think the least compelling option or Comparison is the one from 2021 the reason I think that the least Compelling option is the one from sort Of mid 2021 is because when we were Experiencing that sort of a move Remember the eth Bitcoin pair was in a Macro uptrend right it was in a macro Uptrend and so eth kept gaining on Bitcoin you see that but right now eth Bitcoin the valuation of eth against

Bitcoin is in a macro downtrend and so Then it raises the question well if we Can learn something from eth Bitcoin and Give us insight into eth us USD when was The last time that eth Bitcoin was in a Macro downtrend right that was the the Question that you would naturally ask Right when was the last time that eth Bitcoin was in a a macro downtrend and The last time it occurred was back over Here during the last Market cycle where By the way we also went through a lot of Rate hikes and we also went through Quantitative tightening too right so you Can see that we had these rate hikes and While we had the rate hikes eth Bitcoin Was bleeding similar thing over here Right we've had all these rate hikes the FED paused and eth Bitcoin was bleeding Now you'll note back in the last cycle That eth Bitcoin broke down and bottomed Right after the First Rate cut it was After the First Rate cut right but also You will notice here that ethusd fell Below the bull market support band just Before rate cuts D and the reason why That's important is because there's a Good chance that the fed's going to cut Sometime this year I think they might Actually cut sometime this summer even Though I know it's not being currently Priced in markets so we will see about That but if you were only look at at Something like this and to even get a

Little bit more Confluence add on here Total assets held by the uh total assets Here held by the Federal Reserve so if We go to um sorry I'm looking at the Wrong thing let me add on total assets Right here and here again you can see That eth Ethusd fell below the bull market Support band just before the FED pivoted To QE you see that back in 2019 now I'm Not suggesting that the fed's going to Pivot back to QE immediately but what I Would say is that the FED did mention That they're thinking that they're They're going to be tapering Quantitative tightening starting in June Meaning they're still going to continue To reduce the size of your balance sheet But they're not going to reduce it as Aggressively okay So to me when I look at a chart like This and I say where is the fairest Comparison and what is the least fair Comparison the least fair comparison in The current setup is to say that it's Similar to Mid 2021 and honestly that's Probably a good thing right all things Considered because in mid 2021 while we Did go back up we then saw um you know Massive Fallout where tons of projects Went bankrupt right so you know while That you might not like that I'm Comparing it to that ultimately that was A very painful path to go on for both

You know for both sides for both the Bulls and the Bears because in this in This case you know we went up made Everyone bullish and then we basically Just came all the way back down so I Think that's the least fair comparison Because during that time QE was still Going on that purple line rates were Basically at zero and E Bitcoin was Going up so I think first of all we can Say all right it's not that Comparison that's the least Likely the most likely for me is 2019 Because I'm of the opinion that the FED Will likely pivot sometime in the next Few months and so if that's the case Then this is the fairest comparison to The current Setup but that doesn't mean it's the Only comparison that we should consider There does exist theoretically a Scenario where things keep holding up Okay in the economy and the FED doesn't Pivot as soon as I think they will right What if the FED doesn't pivot until next Year like some people are suggesting if That's the case then you could argue That what if we are right here in you Know sort of Summer 2023 you know Interest dies off ethusd goes down maybe It pops back above the bull market Support band but then it just Fades back Later on in the summer and we just go Nowhere for the next two to three

Quarters that or or the next one to two Quarters that is a possibility as well Again I don't think it's as compelling As the 2019 example because I actually Think that rate cuts are going to likely Start occurring this summer but if I had To say if you told me right if you just Said right now if you're from the future And you told me hey Ben this is not the 2019 comparison find the next one that Applies I would say well if it's not 2019 all over again it's probably just Some type of similar setup as to here Where it gets below it pops back up for A little bit and then bleeds back below It later on this summer and then maybe It picks back up you know later on this Year But I think I still think that 2019 is the fairest comparison and I Think it's because right of monetary Policy it has nothing to do with eth Right so eth Maxis get off my back I Actually like a theorum right I mean you Guys can say what you want I actually Like it but my views about it are not Based on whether I like it My Views are Are just based on you know the fact that I think it's going to bleed back to Bitcoin until lose her monetary policy Arrives and so I think that this is the Fairest comparison because not only in 2019 was QT going on not only were Interest rates about to be cut which

Seems like we're kind of knocking on That door right now but also just before Eth fell below its bullmark support B in 2019 we saw eth Bitcoin break support right right here Sorry I clicked on the wrong one right Here you see where it broke support That's what marks the top on eth bitcoin So eth Bitcoin broke support right after Eth Bitcoin broke support ethusd topped And then shortly after it fell below the Bull market support band you can see it Pretty clearly right well I'm looking at The chart I'm like all right what is he Smoking right but you guys get it I mean If you're new I know this could be Definitely confusing um But let me just you know this this Orange line right here this is interest Rates you can see that the FED were the Fed was paused and then they cut here in July just before rate Cuts ethusd topped Out when eth USD topped out it Corresponded to eth bitcoin which is This light blue line breaking below Support you see that so eth Bitcoin Broke below support ethusd topped out it Then fell to the bull market support ban And then shortly after that rate Cuts Began which is why I don't really think We necessarily have to wait until the End of the year to get the First Rate Cut I I think that obviously the fed's Talking a big talk right now but I could

See a scenario where they cut sooner Than the market is Expecting so to me this looks like the Fairest comparison now you could say but Ben they haven't cut yet right they Haven't actually cut yet they haven't Shifted over to QE so why do we assume it's 2019 what if It's what if it's like March of 2019 and Not July okay that's also a fair point And and that's why I said over here You know it could be something like this Mid 2023 esque but that's sort of the second Fair comparison I think but if I look at It like This and I don't care if I if I don't Even know about monetary policy right if We just hide that and say all right Let's forget about monetary policy for a Second just look at it through the lens Of eth Bitcoin and then you can see a Pretty clear picture eth Bitcoin durably Fell below support right here which is Where ethusd topped so this falling Below support corresponded to an ethusd Top it fell below support right here Which corresponded to an ethusd top so You can see it pretty clearly that in Both cases eth Bitcoin broke support and Then ethusd fell because then ethusd has Nowhere to hide on its Bitcoin pair as Any move by Bitcoin would likely send The eth Bitcoin pair even lower and then

People start throwing in the towel on E Bitcoin it goes into outright Capitulation this summer theoretically Eth Bitcoin bottoms out sometime later On this summer and it could be as early As next month I I'm not unsympathetic to That idea in fact my base case at this Point is that eth Bitcoin bottoms out Sometime this summer but not ethusd eth Bitcoin This here if I'm not even looking at the FED because again you know everyone says Well well you know it'll it'll do this Until the FED Cuts it's not like that The FED reacts to the markets the market Tells the FED what to do not the other Way around the fed's not telling the Market what to do the FED does not Control the animal spirits the animal Spirits will fight back until they just Physically can't anymore it's one of the Great things about the markets right is That you know people don't give up it's Sort of like a reflection of of human Nature which is a good thing to some Degree um in some cases now in other Cases people lose all their money Betting on Meme coins which is not good But This is a pretty clear example now you Might say but Ben that's only one Example right how are you going to take That to the bank they're not going to Cash it in and that'd be a fair point

But fortunately for us there's another Example there's a third example where Eth Bitcoin also broke down and guess What after it broke down shortly Thereafter eusd fell below its poll Market support ban and it actually broke Down temporarily back over here in June You see that first breakdown below that Prior support that marks the top for Ethusd so don't tell me there's only one Example there's two examples there's Also the 2016 example and then your Response could be well that was a bull Market you know 2016 was a bull market And also it was a having year right it Was a having year it was a bull market And and therefore there's no way it Can't can't be similar to the current Time right or how can or no maybe you Think you would think that 2016 was a Bull market so that's more of a fair Comparison as opposed to 2020 or 2019 And I could get on board with that idea Potentially there's a lot of really Smart people that have made the Comparison a Bitcoin USD to 2016 I still Think it's more similar to 2019 Personally but I'm not completely Unsympathetic to the idea of a 2016 Comparison but the problem for e is that Even if you make the 2016 compar From when it first took out that Wick Between the two peaks right so peak one Peak one here and then the second Peak

That wi that low once it took out that Low that marked the ethusd top and from That level Ethusd still fell 70% even though you Could argue it was a bull market right This is one of the reasons I have Problems with people that you know we Call these things bull markets and bare Markets I mean at the end of the Day if you're going to you know if You're going to witness the % drop who Cares what you call it right you can Call it whatever you want it's it's Still a 70% drop and in the grand scheme Of things who Cares because it still went up a lot After that and actually after eth Bitcoin broke down in 2019 ethusd fell About 70% right and that does not Include the pandemic at all so you can't Even say that it's because of the Pandemic that was before the P that was By December of 2019 before the pandemic Crash even happened when the if you Include the pandemic crash eth USD Dropped about 75% from that high from where eth Bitcoin broke down so you have two clear Examples where eth Bitcoin broke down And when it broke down it marked the Local top on ethusd after it marked the Local top on ethusd then ethusd fell Below its bull market support band and In both cases after it fell below the

Bull Mark sport band eth USD then fell About another 50% right it fell 50% There after going below the bull market Support band and here it also fell about 50% after going below the bull market Support band so while it was a 70% drop From the top it was 50% from here now Again 50% from here puts eth all the way Back down at around 1,400 or so which Coincidentally as we previously pointed Out Corresponds to the lower logarithmic Regression trend line right that a $1,400 eth would get you down there it Actually 1,200 is is the current fair Value but again it's a moving Target in You know 3 months it'll be higher in six Months it'll be higher Etc so and again I know I put these videos out everyone's Going to poke fun but you have to Remember that the markets do often Repeat themselves with eth Bitcoin Breaking down and you know I I can't Help but think it's just doing the same Thing again and no one wants to believe It but I will remind you the people that Are going to be the fiercest deniers of Such an outcome have also been very Bullish on the eth Bitcoin pair since The merge right it's the same people That said the flipping was going to Happen it's the same people that said That that you know the deflationary Tokenomics was a game changer and that

The transition to proof of stake was a Game changer my argument is that none of Us know the outcome of all that stuff None of us know about the outcome of Proof of stake none of us know the Outcome of the deflation tokenomics of It because eth hasn't been given a Chance we still are existing in Tighter And Tighter monetary policy conditions So we're only going to find out the Success of all that stuff after we go Back to QE but until that time it Doesn't matter and that's why there's Sometimes a disconnect between what Feels like should happen based on all The great things happening but then what Actually happens because of monetary Policy right that's why there's often a Disconnect between what it seems like Reality should be based on the bullish Things that you read and what it Actually is is because it doesn't really Matter how great something is if people Can't put food on the table right if it Doesn't really matter if something's you Know going to be great in the Future if in the short term you're Worrying about your job and if you're Going to be laid off or not it's just an Artifact of the business cycle it's Nothing related to eth and so I I want To remind people that you know I I I I Do like ethereum and I say that knowing That even the people that a lot of the

People that are really supportive of me Right now because of my views on bitcoin Dominance they're Bitcoin Maxis and so They've actually been very supportive of Me for the last two and a half years Because I've been carrying this Bitcoin Dominance torch and they're like well Yeah look he's right but I'm also here To say guys I'm not a maxi I'm not I I Actually do find Value in if eum it's Just that you're going to you know when You when you see these Tighter and Tighter monetary policy conditions You're just going to see eth Bitcoin Bleed and that's what you're witnessing I mean eth Bitcoin is down to 0047 I I Don't really think that anything I've Said about eth Bitcoin has been Incorrect over the last couple of years It's been a slow and systematic Downtrend and every single one of these Highs was just a lower high they've all Been lower highs and it hasn't changed The only thing that has changed changed Is the USD valuation has gone up but it Only went up because Bitcoin lifted it Up not because eth was doing well or Leading the bull market You could argue That eth was leading maybe this bull Market over here because eth Bitcoin was Going up but eth has not been leading This one at all in fact the dominance of Eth just put in a new low uh you know or A low that it hasn't even hit since

Summer at 2022 I mean it just keeps on Going lower and this is what we've Talked about right we've talked about This like capitulation into the summer Of eth dominance and eth Bitcoin and it Seems like it's already it seems like It's playing out so when we think about You know what is the most likely outcome For eth USD we first have to figure out what is The fairest comparison is it is it 2023 Right is it this where then it got right Back above it Is it 2021 early 2021 is it late 2021 I don't think it's this I don't Think it's this I also don't really Think it's this either or this I think The fairest comparison is Here is this one that's what I think the Fairest comparison is is 2019 after eth Bitcoin broke down or if If you prefer and again I can understand Why people would prefer the comparison To 2016 but it doesn't matter if you Compare it to 2016 the having year or if You compare it to 2019 guess what e Ethusd still dropped 70% from the high And it still dropped 50% from where it Broke below the bullmark sport band so If you're in the camp of this is the Having year it's not the preh having Year and you should not compare to 2019

Fine compare it to the having year of 2016 And tell me what happened right it still Dropped 70% maybe that's what Happens right in both cases the Drop right the the drop that occurred Starting from where eth Bitcoin broke Below its support level for the first Time eth USC dropped here for 6 months How long did it drop in in in 2019 Before before it started to go back up Look at that exactly 25 weeks about 6 Months or so where would 25 weeks put us If you go out to this top 25 weeks later That puts you In September the reason why September is Interesting is because a lot of times September not always as I as I you know Found out last year but often times September's not the best month for Crypto oh always exceptions to the rule Right don't get on my back about it Again if September is a green Month but even in 2019 you can see that after about six Months it started to go up you see that After about six months it really started To move and then we got a hard Landing With a pandemic a block Swan Right over here it was 25 weeks down and Then we just went up into the Post having Year so I think there's sort of two

Outcomes here to think about that I Think are the most likely number one Ethusd bleeds often On until September that would be a similar Outlook as 2016 having year I think it's reasonable to compare to That as well monetary policy you know Wasn't as um you know I mean rates were Still low back then so it's not I don't I don't think it's necessarily the Fairest comparison but at the same Time who am I to say that it can't be That could Be so keep this in Mind after it broke the 20we SMA ethusd Fell 50% in Which was a having year so don't tell me It can't do it in a having year I Watched it do it in 2016 my portfolio right has witnessed These draw Downs before even when I Thought that it was Impossible if you think it's 2019 the thing is is it it doesn't Matter it doesn't matter if it's 2016 or 2019 the same thing happened the only Difference the only real difference Between 2016 and 2019 was that in 2019 Just following that we ended up getting A hard Landing 2016 was a soft Landing now I know what

You're Thinking 2016 a soft Landing guys yes in 2015 and 2016 there was a lot of discussion back Then about a hard landing and a Recession it it was very frequently Discussed In fact I think in some countries they Did have negative GDP I'm pretty sure But the US did Not so you have an example where this is What a soft Landing looks Like in 2019 that was what a soft Landing look like and you still had an Inverted yield curve back then too The pandemic showed you what a hard Landing looks like but again I'm not Suggesting that you have to you know you Have to bank on that happening because It might Not but when I look at this and I say All right well the two fairest Comparisons are 2019 and 2016 the next after 2019 if you're not Looking at 2016 could be mid 2023 but Even then it just popped back above it And then eventually got back below it in Either case eth still fell 50% after eth Bitcoin broke down and you Know where it fell To you Know it went to the lower logarithmic Aggression trend Line that's where it went after eth

Bitcoin broke support it broke support Here it broke support here and in both Cases it fell to the lower logarithmic Regression trend line So I don't see a compelling reason why That can't happen again I really don't Now I want to talk a little bit about The short term which I always regret Because no one can predict the Short-term moves in the market now again You're going to have people that can Pretend they can do it and they will put Out bets one way or another and Sometimes they'll be right sometimes They'll be wrong but the reality is no One can predict the short-term movement In the market no one absolutely no one I've I've seen so many people try and And sometimes people go on winning Streaks for a while When someone gets hot honestly it's it's It's a sign that usually they can you Know they have a good grasp on what the Current trend is and they can ride that Trend but inevitably everyone gets Things wrong including and especially me Okay So from here um in the short term I want To talk About you know potential expectations Now if it's going to be a mid 2020 3 Then it means you know it could get Right back above the bullmark sport Bend Again I don't really think that's the

Most likely outcome um you could still See a wick above it and maybe you get Another weekly close just above it but I Do think it's sort of fading here into The Summer if you look at 2019 what you'll See is that it actually did go right Back above the bull market support band But it was only a wick right so you had Your first weekly close here below It and then it rallied back up above it But it was only a wick the weekly close Was still below the 21 we EMA you see That But what caused ethusd to stall out at The bull Mark sport Bend then and what Caused it to go back up right here it Wasn't eth it's not like it's not like Ethusd was doing anything great at the Time was just kind of going sideways do You see this week right here July 29th So what was going on with Bitcoin the Week of July 29th that is the question To ask ourselves of 2019 and the week of July 29th of 2019 Bitcoin had just Closed below its 8we SMA and then it Rallied right back above the 8we Estimate Bitcoin went up 15% and in the week that Bitcoin went up 15% ethusd went up 5 a half per. do you See what happened Bitcoin got a bounce While it was still above its bull market Support band right it was still above it

But ethusd got pinned below its bullmark Support band so it found resistance at a Spot that Bitcoin couldn't even find Resistance at because Bitcoin was still Above it it was not even at its bull Market support Band that's why Bitcoin dominance topped Out before Bitcoin fell below its bull Market support band Right Because the altcoin market had been bled Dry against Bitcoin up here so once alt Had been bled dry then bitcoin's Downturn started that lasted for about Half a year but it was only after Altcoins have been had been bled dry Before the altcoin market had been bled Dry Bitcoin was still holding above the 20we ese the reason it held above the 20we ese for all those months was Because people just kept on converting Their alts to bitcoin right that's what Caused Bitcoin to stay elevated longer Than eth and Altcoins so Ethusd went up the following Week but it was only because Bitcoin Went up and during the week of July 29th eth Bitcoin Fell by 8 and a Half% okay and that was actually just After eth Bitcoin broke down which is Pretty close to what's kind of going on

Right now Now there's no such thing as a sure Thing there's no guarantee that ethusd Even goes up this week and if it does go Up this week it's only because Bitcoin Probably went up unless you get some Type of Crazy Event um you know if There's some by by some miracle the spot ETF is approved or something that could Be some type of external event I suppose That could could at least in the short Term change things up but still over a Longer period of time I still see the Same Trend occurring of eth bleeding Back to bitcoin until loci monetary Policy arrives so we know that it went Up but then we have to ask ourselves Well why did Bitcoin go up back then was It just because eth closed below the 20we ese you see this week eth closed Below the 20we SMA the week of July 22nd the week of July 22nd was right Here and then the following week Bitcoin Went up you see that so did it do it Just because eth was below the 20we SME Or was there something else going on and There there were some different things Going on in fact monetary policy was one Of them if you look at where Bitcoin Rallied back up it actually occurred After the FED had cut rates so the FED Cut rates right here which is precisely When Bitcoin rallied back up so I don't Think Bitcoin rallied back up just

Because e had a weekly close below its 20we SM I think that Bitcoin rallied Back up because the FED cut rates it Still led to a lower high as we know but It occurred on the First Rate cut and it Was on this rate cut that led to the Quick devaluation of the eth Bitcoin Pair that was where eth Bitcoin really Started to capitulate because it was Pinned below its 20we SMA and Bitcoin Was not Bitcoin is still well above it 21 maybe not well above it but it is Still above it in fact from the current Prices Bitcoin would have to fall almost 9% just to get back to the bullmark Sport and I do think it will eventually Get back down there right but it's been A slow process and if you want to make The 2023 comparison You could argue that This still looks kind of similar to this Right but we didn't actually get this Big Bounce until we had weekly closes at the Bullmark sport band and we haven't had That yet so I still think there is a Chance here that eth USD will just Simply continue to fade into the summer Yes there's going to be some some crazy Rallies at some point but my guess is They just lead the lower highs until the Last rate Cut or at least some point where Monetary policy Shifts and it's the same thing right I

Mean the people that are going to be the Loudest about it now were also very loud Back in 2022 when I said I have a whole Video on this stuff when I said that This was just a secondary distribution Phase and ever since then it was just a Series of lower Highs but every lower High you had people thinking it wasn't a Lower high and that that was sort of the New move that was going to ultimately Lead to higher prices and this just Keeps on happening right every single One of these moves even when I warn About them ahead of time it still leads To people falling for them and thinking It's different but it's it's just been One lower high after another for for Years so I don't really anticipate that If you're a if you're really bullish on Eth right now I don't really anticipate That you're going to give my views Really any any credit or any Credence as To being potentially right because You've already made up your mind and I Do get things wrong and you could Probably point to Prior things I've been Wrong about to suggest why I could be Wrong about this but there's also been Things I've been right about like Bitcoin dominance e Bitcoin that sort of Stuff and I think one thing that we Could do better as an industry is to not Always go after the person but just kind Of like debate the idea it's easy to go

After me as a person if I say something You don't like go after the idea right If you think I'm wrong tell me why based On the idea presented don't tell me why Because of something I got wrong two Years ago right that's not we all get Things wrong that's not like a fair a Fair way to go about it say all right Well you know you're saying this about Eth Bitcoin maybe you think this time is Different because of some such reason I Would love to hear that sort of response Right tell me why that way way that'd be A much more preferred response than hey You were wrong about this thing two Years ago therefore you're wrong about This as if everyone gets things right Right which is not true no one gets Everything right and I mean even even Just a couple months ago I feel like so Many people were calling for a 100K Before the having or just after the Having um again I'm not saying that Stuff can't happen but I mean it just Goes to show you how quickly the wind Can get cut from the sales of Bitcoin After each Bitcoin breaks down and I Think a lot of people were not Anticipating it because they were just Looking at the spot ETF flows and all That stuff but history shows that when One source of liquidity is taken away When alts break down against Bitcoin Bitcoin then falters for a little

While So you can see that ethusd is below its Bull market support ban I'm not you know I'm not calling for it to go down to the Lower regression ban today or anything If history is any indication though it Could make its way there over the next Few Months especially going into the sort of The later summer months I I I think you Could make a compelling case for it to Get back down in there and guys when you Think about it when you really zoom out I mean normally when e sets a low it Retests that low at some point you know I mean it's not I mean here we didn't Quite get down there but we got pretty Close there's always going to be a Reason so I just don't really understand You know why it can't happen again I Mean if it you know if it if it happened In 2016 in a having year if it happened In 20120 in a having Year why why can't that happen in 2024 Right why not I mean the last two times That ethusd tested a prior major low was In the having year it was in Prior Having Years why why does this time have to be Different you know and that's the thing I I I feel like seen a lot of people say Well Ben saying that this time is Different I'm not it's just I feel like

It's it's just the the way you interpret Various things but if you look at it Ethusd in both two prior having years From the local top where eth Bitcoin Fell below support eth USD then dropped 70% and it bottomed Out in the having year after a 70% Drop so I don't for for me I'm not Saying this time is different I'm saying This is the same it's the same thing eth Bitcoin breaks and then eth USD Falls but again I would fully expect the Deens to fight me on it every step of The way and you know just like I heard On every single low or high by eth Bitcoin for the last two years as to why My Views were wrong I could easily see The same thing happening on on Ethusd where on every lower high they Say that I'm wrong and I could be wrong I could be I you I'm trying to find Reasons why it could play out Differently at this point I can't really Find any that I wholeheartedly believe In Um you know if if the FED if something Catastrophic happened and the FED had to Turn the money printer on a lot quicker Than we're thinking then maybe it could Be avoided but even in that case it's The it's the the path of the thing That's happening that causes risk assets To drop which causes the FED to Pivot so It's just hard to imagine a scenario

Where something like that doesn't Ultimately play out where it still goes Back down and and sort of rechecks in And this is something that often happens In in you know these these Cycles is Where you you know you sort of set a low And then at some point in the future you You check back in with that Low So I think it's probably going to happen Um and I just want people to be aware of It I I know that these views are are Definitely controversial but they do not Reflect my my opinion on the long-term Outcome of ethereum I do think ethereum Will be successful regardless of my Opinion on short-term price action I Just want people to be prepared for this Potential outcome because I have not Always been prepared for it and it's Better be at least prepared for it and Guys I'm not even saying like you have To take this information and do anything With your E I mean if you're if you Think it's going to go up I'm not asking You to you know know go make a a big Portfolio Decision but sometimes when you're an Investor it always makes sense to have a Little bit of cash right just in case Something like this were to play out Because you know the worst thing about Investing um especially in crypto is When you do get crashes and you have no

Money to put into it right because then You're like and because then you're very Much dependent on just going back up to Bail you out which often it does because The FED baells out everyone um over a Long enough period of time but if you Have some money sort of set aside in Case this outcome occurs that could be An appropriate response right non-f Financial advice right that's what I Would view as an appropriate Financial Um or an appropriate response to say Well you know if it does play out like History being prepared for it makes Sense if it doesn't play out then you Can it's not like you can't put that Money in something else eventually There's always something that's you know Going to go up theoretically but I just Want to make sure that these views are Clearly Comm communicated Ethusd has fallen below its bullmark Sport band and there is a risk that it It you know I mean it could certainly Flirt with it here for a couple of weeks But I I do think there's a strong risk That it could it could fall below if you Look at or it could keep going down if You look at 2016 you can see it was Staying right above it and once it got Below it it just went straight Down in 2019 once it got below it it Went back up for a couple weeks but it Was only because Bitcoin went up but I

Think Bitcoin went up because the FED Cut r rates and unfortunately the fed's Not cutting rates yet so in the short Term you know you could certainly see a Scenario where Bitcoin just continues to Fade back to its bullmark sport band Which is what it normally does after it Breaks below the 8we SMA right if I pull Up Um the uh let's pull up an 8we estimate Here so here is the 8we we're going to Go make this a little bit brighter so we Can all see it right so a lot of times After Bitcoin Falls below the 8 we and Then goes into to the bullmark sport bin Right same thing sometimes it goes below It and we're just doing the same thing Again you know I mean this is a wick I Get it but a lot of times you'll you'll Actually see weekly closes down there so Those are my views on ethusd I hope I've Done a fair job of explaining them if You disagree with me that's fine I I Think that's that's what makes it a Market right I mean that's what makes it A market it's not like we're all going To agree here but if your biggest Comeback is you know you've been wrong About something two years ago then That's not I just don't feel like that's A productive way way to to to go about This conversation I think it's more fair To say look guys I've been saying for a While that when eth Bitcoin breaks down

Ethusd could then you know could then See a larger pullback um and I mean so Far it seems like it seems like that's Happening because eth Bitcoin broke down Back in March and eth USD is already Down you know 30% Right so we'll goad and wrap it up there Thank you guys for tuning in make sure You subscribe give the video a thumbs up And again check out intothe cryptoverse Premium at intothe cryptoverse [Music]

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