ETH / BTC

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about the eth Bitcoin ratio if You guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out into the Crypt premium at into the [Music] Cryptoverse I wasn't planning on doing Another video this soon on eth bitcoin But I know that if I don't uh everyone Will say that I'm just avoiding it and Not talking about it and I've learned Through the years is that you know when You're wrong um it's best to just sort Of face it head on then pretend like it Didn't happen so if you're only here for Me to admit that I was wrong then there You have It the first thing I'd like to say with Regards to eth bitcoin is you know Anything I say at this point I know will Just be seen as as sort of coping right I I understand that it's sort of a a Position of weakness Right and so I can't really communicate Anything about my views especially if It's just not blindly bullish you know Without it just coming off as as weak And defensive so I get that um and you Know I'm I'm going to try to do this Justice and not and not just um you Know look at it from only one side but I Will say in the last several videos

There are are two things that I said First of all if you have waited two and A half years to trade your eth to Bitcoin you're far too late right Because you know I made the trades back Over here and you know I've been Spending two years convincing people That this is what's happening and then Now there's only some people just now Getting the memo so that's why I I've Gone on you know a couple of monologues Recently on how you know if you're if You're converting now you are really Late to the game and it does not make Sense to convert it into into a a a Capitulation candle right that was Number One second of All I I said that it seemed like a lot Of people were converting their eth to Altcoins at the worst possible time Right and one of the examples I gave was The soul eth valuation and I I said that You know Altcoins are oscillators at best Generally speaking and so the sole eth Valuation was getting really stretched Now there are examples where all e Valuations go above the range highs so I I don't want to completely discount that Scenario I'm sure that's where the pitch Forex would come next But I've just seen a lot I mean I've Seen a lot of altcoins do this thing

Against eth where they they put up a High and then they rally back up to that High everyone calls for that alt to flip Eth and then it just doesn't and it goes Back down so hopefully that those views Were at least helpful to to at least Keep you from converting your e into Salana at the worst possible time at the Range highs when just a few days ago it Seemed like that's what a lot of people Were were in fact Preaching now with regards to eth Bitcoin again I honestly don't know how To talk about it without it coming off As as weak and defensive I I really Don't um so I mean I'm gonna try but I You know if I was on the other side I Would be saying the same thing all right So the first thing I will say is that You know with the whole spot e eth ETF I Think a lot of people assume that I want It to be rejected when I've said many Times even in my last video the last Video that I put out just a couple of Days ago I said I actually hope it gets Approved I mean you know I'm I'm rooting For these things to be approved I just Think there does exist a scenario Although I know you know I know a lot of People wouldn't buy this and I I can't Blame them but there does exist a Scenario where even if it is approved Eth Bitcoin still doesn't immediately go Back up to to new highs right um and so

You know and again I know that's not Going to be a popular View and I don't Even NE I'm not even necessarily saying My conviction on it is is like you know Extremely high it's just something that I've said said before and I would Reiterate that there there does exist Exist a scenario where something like That were to happen I do want to go Through kind of the pattern that we saw Last time and you know I I actually put Out a video right here when I said that Eth Bitcoin could rally back up to Around 0053 to 054 and the reason why I said that was Because at the time that's where the Bull market support band was right right Now you can see that in fact we are Slightly above the bull market support Band we've seen that a lot right I mean We have seen that a lot it it happened Back over here it happened right here And there and there and there um all These moves were were back above the the The bull marks were P but they all Ultimately resulted in in lower highs And So I think you know you really need to Take out this High here for it to be More Meaningful is what I would is what I Would But I I do want to go through one Scenario here when it comes to you know

To sort of eth Bitcoin and what we saw In 2019 and and if it is going to play Out like that or if it's going to Deviate again first of all I you know I Underestimated the the spot Bitcoin ETF um you know so I I'm not going to Say that you know that that there's only One valid view right I I think that also It's hard because it's like you know I Don't really know that many people that Have been vocally bearish on the eth Bitcoin valuation for the last two and a Half years but anytime it rallies at all The pitchforks come out for me you know And and it's a frustrating position to Be in Because unless I time the bottom Exactly then you know the the pitchforks Come right and I just I want to go Through this scenario here and honestly This might be the last time because it's Either going to play out like this or It's not and if it doesn't it would be Worthwhile to to Pivot The View okay but For the last Time in case the pattern Continues e Bitcoin Had a double Peak here above the bull market support Band in December of really that the the Week started December 31st but it was January of 2019 and then it had a lower High February of 2019 to actually go look at the daily Candle so that you can see what I'm

Talking About this top right there occurred on January 5th this one occurred on February 22nd so we had a two a a sort Of a a high and then a lower high All right January and February so let's Just go ahead and put that on here January February so we have January February double Peaks same thing this time right January February this was early January just Like this one was and then the second Top was late February just like this one Was right right so you have the same Setup you have the exact same setup in Terms of of when those Peaks occurred January and February and you might say why are we Looking at this you know why not look at At something else but again you know my Reasoning for looking at it like this is Because my understanding of the Cryptoverse as ignorant as it may be is Dependent on monetary policy it's the Reason I've been bullied on bitcoin Dominance for two and a half years right And when you're looking at at at at Interest rates and and seeing what Happened last Cycle we know that eth Bitcoin didn't Actually bottom until after rate Cuts Began again I'm not suggesting that this Time has to play out the same way but I

Still think it has to be a scenario Worth considering you know I mean if Last cycle all Bitcoin pairs didn't in Bottom until after it rate Cuts began There has to be a chance that that Happens this time Too and then what happened is we got a a Move back down and then we popped back Up and we actually had a move above the Bull market support bin and would you Care to guess what month that occurred In it occurred in May so you have January February and May And then so far we're seeing the same Thing Happen this May Right note that when we had this Move we had a wick above the bull market Support band but then we got back below It by the end of the Week right now we are above the bull Mark sport band right we are clear C Just like we were back over here in February and in January just like we Were in 2019 so we are above it right Now so if this is going to play out like 2019 then you would expect the eth Bitcoin valuation to get back below the 20we SMA sometime in the next couple of Weeks right kind of like kind of like it Did over here in May 2019 where it had

Some Wicks above it but it still mostly Stayed below it or in January February Where you got above it but then you you You still came back below it at least One to two weeks later so I look at this Chart and I say you know what if it's Not different one of the things where I Think I if this is to play out like this One of the things that I was looking at Was this move so I thought that that Move had already Occurred right because we already had That move up to the bullmark sport band Clearly I was wrong even if this does Play out right because now we had Another move up that's actually taken Out where we went right there so January February May January February May now the question right is Will it go back down and Bitcoin take Back over and Bitcoin dominance go back Up now one thing that happen in um you Know in 2019 if you look at date Roi of Eth you can see that it had this Spike Right here around May right around the Same time and then that's where it had a It was about a three-day spike it lasted For three days so if you look at it on The chart if you zoom in over there it Was it was let me just show you I hate Saying like oh just trust me because you Know I could be wrong it's possible I'm Not remembering correctly um but I Believe it was a three-day Spike right

So one two three three-day Spike third Day got you above the bullmark sport Band if you go look at it Today it doesn't really look exactly the Same to be completely honest because we Had sort of a a two-day move then a red Day and then this is now we're in our Second day of this current move right so The first day was about 10% the second Day was about 5% now you might say well Ben I mean that's not what 2019 was Right this is much more impressive right A 10% move then a 5% move but it's Actually not I mean it's actually more It's more underwhelming Right these moves here were 8% 11 1 12% And 11% right so 8 11 and 1/2 and 10 and 1/2 so 8 11 and 1/2 10 and 1/2 so Far this is 10 and a half and Five and if you want to take these right Here that gets you about six but it Doesn't mean I mean you you could have Another you know you could have a Certainly it could continue I'm not Suggesting that it can't but I I do Think that's an important thing to Consider now one thing that I've talked A lot about is our our our rate cuts and And how that could affect things right Now the First Rate cut isn't projected Until September and you know Once Upon a Time Coming into this year the market thought That there might be a rate cut as early

As as March or something but obviously That that did not happen if you look at At Bitcoin dominance you can see that it Has taken a pretty big hit um with that Said it is still above the bull market Support band right I mean it is and this Is one of those things where like you Know every time it gets a big move to The downside I never hear the end of it And then it continues to go out so I Look at I I look at this chart and just Think to myself like it it was never Wrong to be bullish on bitcoin dominance Um if we look at at at Monthly hiashi candles you can see that They are in still fact all green going Dating Back to December of 2022 Right so you know Bitcoin dominant still Looks how it always has right now one Thing that I wanted to talk about and It's actually what sort of led to the uh To sort of the final Drop there was an article let me see if I can find it Um do you know how like we've had some Inflationary prints recently that Haven't been that great and you have you Have some things like um like copper so Copper why is talking about copper but If you look at at uh let me find it US Inflation versus copper copper tends to Be a pretty good leading indicator of Inflation um you know if it's going up

Usually inflation follows that doesn't Mean you're going to have an entire Second wave but it you know you could Still see it remain sticky and copper Recently has just been going parabolic Right so that could keep inflation from Making the progress it needs to make for The Fed so what happens if we get Another bad inflation PRS that could lead to more rate Cuts Being priced out again in fact it was in June of 2019 if you look at this article Right here it was in June of 2019 where The um the FED said they indicate it Will cut rates but not until 2020 you see that this was published Wednesday June 2019 fed indicates it Will Cai rates but not until 2020 the reason why that's interesting Is that was in June of 2019 And if you go look at June of 2019 that Was right when eth Bitcoin finally made The final move down now we are in fact Approaching June of 2024 and I mean I Look at this chart and I'm like it's not Really different so far but I am willing To admit that it could turn into Something different if eth Bitcoin for Instance takes out this high at 006 then It's different you know and and I should Just drop the 2019 comparison um but What if what if this is what if this Little move right Here what if that move right here is

This One you know could that be the case and You know it could be right I mean it Certainly could be and there's Definitely a couple of ways it could Happen one of which is if Bitcoin goes On another rally and you know it's sort Of the idea of like well the spot ETF For eth is great and all but it's still Not here yet and if there's still money Pouring into Bitcoin then you know it Could still lead e Bitcoin to stalling Out at the station and and Bitcoin Taking over once again in fact you could Argue that liquidity from alts because They're still staying elevated is just More fuel for Bitcoin right that's one Example the other example though is that You know you could also get it on on a On a Bitcoin dump as well that's a Possibility um the the only reason I Mentioned that is Because when you look at at at this low Here set by eth Bitcoin it occurred on a Bitcoin Rally whereas as this low right here Occurred on a Bitcoin dump right so it's Slightly different right I mean this was On a Bitcoin rally this was on a Bitcoin Dump and so it's really hard to know you Know if it's going to actually follow 2019 because Bitcoin rallies or if it's Going to follow 2019 because Bitcoin Dumps I don't know the answer to that

Question honestly you know I have sort Of laid the framework for a 2019 Comparison obviously multiple times for Bitcoin USD and the the thing that I go Back to is that you know in 2019 Bitcoin you know it did this thing Where it put in a a high In in June and then a lower high in July And then a lower high or in August right So 3 months back to back to back and Ultimately that rally while it was an Impressive two week Rally by Bitcoin it still resulted in a in a Lower high and so when you look at Bitcoin today it is an impressive two-e Rally and it and it very well could Extend beyond there's a a lot of people That have provided a ton of evidence and I've even provided some of the evidence For instance some of the evidence would Be that all Bitcoin payers have still Not broken down some of the evidence Would be that eth Bitcoin is back up to 0053 so there's still fuel for Bitcoin But there does exist a scenario where You know you have yet again another Lower high just like you got over here In in 2019 where you know that lower High was actually a really impressive Two-e rally but it still resolved to to The downside again I don't know if That's going to play out or not we very Well could break through here and go on

Another move It's entirely possible I'm not going to Pretend like it can't happen right I'm Not and I don't know if if it if we have Enough juice to to to rally on through And to continue climbing um but if we Do then that would be reason enough Right there for potentially eth Bitcoin To sort of stall out for a little bit as Bitcoin takes back over um or if Bitcoin Does just put in a a lower high and come Back down remember if you look closely At the daily time frame on this right if You look at the daily time Frame um one of the things you'll notice Here is that Um sorry was so if you look at at at the Daily time frame and we overlay Bitcoin Dominance you can see that that Bitcoin Dominance really got this Spike after Bitcoin USD topped out out Of around this same level right so it Topped out at around 71 72k it hung out There for a few days and then it dumped And when it dumped that's when Bitcoin Dominance spiked right that's when it Actually spiked so you'll notice that The last time that Bitcoin USD was at This level back over here the dominance Of Bitcoin was actually at 54.3% today it's at 54 5% so it is Slightly higher at a slightly at the Same Bitcoin USD Valuation

So again you know I look at things like Eth Bitcoin And you know there's been so many of These rallies um over the last several Years and every single time like I can't Even hardly look on on Twitter because Of what people are saying and there's Never any accountability you know for Anyone else it seems like it's just uh You know sort of mocking me on on all These rallies I am willing to admit that You know that it's not like eth Bitcoin Is going to go down forever I've said Many times over last week that it would Be silly to convert your eth to bitcoin Into the capitulation candles right you Don't wait two and a half year you don't Listen to me for two and a half years Say that eth Bitcoin is going to bleed And then two and a half years later you Finally make the conversion because Here's what happens if convert here then You run the risk of maybe converting Back right here and then what happens if It plays out like 2019 and then you know You kind of fell for for that same type Of thing right you you leave eth here For Bitcoin and then you convert your Bitcoin back to eth here and then Finally it goes down that's why I say You know it's silly to do it at this Point in the game even if my my view on Eth bitcoin is correct and it does go Down to to to lower

Levels it doesn't mean that it's Necessarily worth it I mean you're You're going to take a tax hit more than Likely depending on where you live and Um you know it might not it simply might Not be worth it but I do look at sort of These patterns and and sort of think About that pattern there and then this One right here and I just wonder like You know what if it's not different and I just I don't I guess I struggle to Know like or understand like why no one Else is is looking at at sort of these Patterns in in general Um you know back over here during the During the spot ETF eth Bitcoin rallied And I said you know I said like guys This is probably just this move here and I was laughed at and then after you know You know sort of going just before the Having people were talking about the Spot ETF and I said guys what if this is Just the second wake up the second top And again I was mocked then too and then When we went here and got a rally after The having and I said guys I don't think It's bottomed at the having we're Probably going to go put in a lower low I was laughed at once again and so it's Just really frustrating because there's There's just no there's no outcome that That I actually will will feel like you Know was appreciated because there's Only two outcomes right outcome one is

It just keeps on Rallying and that's the end of it option Two is it's it's May 2019 and it just Bleeds into the summer and judging by The social risk if that happens it's not Going to matter Because no one's going to be around to Care about it anyways the social risk Today is essentially at a lower level Than it's been at since 2018 late 2018 so there's not really a scenario That's sort of a winning scenario in my View because again if it if it just Keeps on going up then it you know I Guess people get upset because I didn't You know loudly declare at the bottom And if it doesn't keep going up then no One's here no one's going to be here to Care anyways uh so I think that This is why you know if you go back and Watch the last two videos that I did This is why I said it's silly to make The conversion now because it's already Gone down so Much admittedly I think there is a Compelling case to say it could go down Again but I I'm not going to sit here And say that it you know it has to Happen or anything like that it's just Sort of a probability that look it could Be the same type of thing right where You just you know you you you see Another lower high and if it is like This then it it would probably not be

Believable for many many weeks is my Guess um if you look at this Spike over Here in May you know it it did get back Below the bull market sport band but Then it really just kind of went Sideways at right around 03 it's it's almost like the same thing It's just that like we're 0.0 you know 0.02 higher right because this this here Went down to It's actually kind of Interesting I haven't even looked at it Like this before but if you look at a Price label you see that that's like 025 and then that's 0035 and then look at it look at it here You know five years Later sorry let me get the actual um Price label so then here you have it at 0045 and 0.0054 kind of a very similar move right This is 025 to 035 this is 045 to 055 or so right So I look at it and I'm like what if It's the same thing you know but I know Not to even read the comments I know That because you know during these two Rallies over here it was brutal you know And I I honestly it was really hard uh To deal with the sort of the comments at The time but we find ourselves here once Again and so I imagine that my next Video on on E Bitcoin whenever that may Be will either it'll come after we have Resolution right it's either going to be

This or it's not and if it is then I Will just say hey guys You know this is where we were in 2019 When rate Cuts Arrived maybe maybe it's not going to Die you know maybe it's just everyone Thought all these were the uh the Breakouts and they were just Premature and if I come on here in a Couple of months and talk about eth Bitcoin and this is not what happened Then so be it right and don't wait for Me I mean just look at the Chart if it takes out this High then I'm Then then I think it's worthwhile to Pivot the view and say it's not 2019 but if it's just sort of a wick up And we go back down in a few Days then maybe the 2019 comparison Isn't the worst one after all remember When you think about it again if you Look at at year-to dat Roi we saw a very Very very similar move by eth Bitcoin at Around the same point in the cycle So 2024 to 2019 right and it was it was Actually a crazy Spike I remember that Spike actually um was really impressive And I you know I started my channel in The summer of 2019 and my first video on My channel uh if I can if I can quickly Go find It um so my very first Video Once Upon a Time a long long time Ago uh it feels like forever ago

Was this video right Here so it was called timing the Long-term momentum Shifts sorry I'm trying to show it over Here on the screen Um so here ethereum timing the long-term Momentum shifts so it was four years ago But it was almost 5 years ago because This video came out I think I published This in in September of 2019 and essentially I had Seen you know this pattern I saw what Happened I saw these three spikes and I I sort of recognized that people were Falling for each and every one of them And then I made that video the oldest Video on my channel right here and That's why I said that was the that was The low right that was the timing the Longterm momentum shift was down there After I saw what happened in January February and May and I just I just wonder if it's the Same January February and May and what If everyone here is making the same Mistakes that they made over Here I also will say that obviously Markets are dynamic they change I I I Cannot sit here and pretend like the Spot ETF does not have any effect I'm Sure that it does Okay so It's not like my conviction is 100% like I'm not 100% sure it's going to play out

Like this I would say like my my Convictions are about like say 7030 right maybe about 70% 30% uh 70% Where it it just kind of keeps playing Out how we've talked about 30% where Where perhaps it it deviates and does Something else um but I I do think at This point it it's fair to say That a great reason why you don't Capitulate two and a half years into a Downtrend right this is the exact reason It doesn't mean you can't go lower it Just means that look look what happens When you do that and if you capitulated Your eth to bitcoin two and a half years After I did you know I did it up between 07 to 08 you know I mean I don't it's Easy to look at it at 054 and not be Very emotional about it right the only Reason I I I sort of Express these Emotions are not because of what I I Feel inside it's just what I see other People saying about me which is hard to Deal with um But yeah I just you know I look at this And I'm like you know what if it's what If it's the same and then I I I look at Other people and I'm like all right look There's compelling reasons why it might Not be right there are compelling Reasons why it might not be I will just Say this is the reason why you don't Capitulate two and a half years into a Downtrend it's also the same reason you

Know going back to the to the very Beginning of the video when I said you Know this is why I made the video uh the Last in my last couple of videos I've Said look this is not the spot to Convert your your your eth to salana and I I mean I literally said it like what Two days ago and now look at it look at Soul E look at the soul e valuation I Mean it's just a huge rejection up here Off of the top of the Range so you know you really do have to Be careful when you you know when you Make emotional decisions based on you Know thinking that this altcoin is going To flip ethereum or something just Because it's been outperforming for a Couple years or something or a year and A half a lot of times these altcoins are Oscillators against Eve and so to make The conversion at the range High is a very is emotional thing you Know you don't you don't trade your eth For Salana at every point where it's been Rejected at in the past it doesn't I Mean that's what I would say it doesn't Mean that it can't take it out there are Examples where all eth pairs do deviate Above the range highs like I'm there are Examples of that I could probably find You know 10 easily it's just That is it worth the risk to convert Your eth to

Salana at the same spot it was rejected At in late 2021 and March of 2024 I don't think So and this is why right I mean you get These major moves to the downside and Then you have a lot of people that Converted their their eth to salana at The top And then maybe they spend the next two Years wondering if it's ever going to Get back to that Level so you know you have to be really Careful about about those sorts of Things but I think we'll go ahead and Wrap it up thank you guys for tuning in Um and I I mean I I I get the sentiment I get the comments uh say what you want To say but I'll see you guys see you Guys next time bye

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