ETH/BTC: The Coming Collapse?

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about ethereum but more Specifically we're going to talk about The Ether Bitcoin valuation and discuss The probabilities of a common collapse If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and also check out the Sale on into the crypto various premium At into the let's go Ahead and jump in before we get too far I I would like to say that this is just My opinion on the market is not meant to Be Financial advice while I do sometimes Get things right I also sometimes get Things wrong so I would not advise Anyone to necessarily take anything that I say to the bank because again they are Not going to cash it in with that said My goal is to try and provide an Unbiased view of the market as best I Can whether I achieve that or not I Guess is up for interpretation but if You go back through the history of this Channel there you'll find phases where I'm bullish on the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation phases where I'm bearish for a Reference first video you'll see on my Channel I was quite bullish on the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation we talked About timing the long-term momentum Shifts back when it was at 0.02 but when We had the merge I was quite bearish on

The ethereum Bitcoin valuation I was also quite bearish on it over here As well back in mid-2022 and we talked About the likelihood of this just being A secondary distribution phase now we've Come a long way since then Um as you can see in this video the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation was at 0.08 What I would like to draw your attention To in this video is the fact that the Bitcoin dominance was at 40 percent and Today it sits at 51 percent so this Thesis of the rest of the market Bleeding back to bitcoin has in fact Been coming true where it has not Materialized in the same way at least Not yet is in the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation now we know that ether Bitcoin Valuation has gone down as you can see In this video it was sitting at around 0.08 and you know making this video Right now it's at .0627 so it has Generally trended in the direction we Would have we would have expected since The merge if you're not familiar with This view on a secondary distribution Phase of The Ether Bitcoin value it more Or less Looks familiar in terms of Bitcoin USD Right And this is what we talked about back When we had the merge is that you know Bitcoin USD had this long distribution Phase where you had sort of one

Distribution phase that had Four Peaks Uh sort of like a brief re-accumulation Phase followed by a secondary Distribution phase that basically just Had two peaks that was the assessment That we made and then we talked about How from that point uh you know the Bitcoin USD evaluation bled for a while And then popped back up but then Ultimately we we ended up going to new Lows so in the context of that the idea Was well is ether following the same Distribution pattern on its Bitcoin pair And I would argue that it it back then I Argued that it was and I I would still Even today I would I would say you know What it still seems like that is what is Playing out it seems like what it's been Playing out and it's probably going to Be in my opinion it's the most likely Scenario to continue playing out you Essentially have your first distribution Phase You're you're sort of brief Re-accumulation window and then your Secondary distribution phase that just Had sort of a one-two punch just like we Saw with Bitcoin USD Now since the merge you know and we we Talked about this distribution phase you Can see that the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation has just been slowly bleeding Now where it becomes difficult for uh You know a lot of people and including

Myself because you know I mean it's you Have to defend these theories when you Put these theories out there and and it Maybe goes the wrong way in the short Term it can be difficult and especially On each of these lower highs by The Ether Bitcoin valuation there are a lot Of critics but I would remind people That literally every single move by Ether's Bitcoin dilation has been a Lower high since the merge so there is This idea that the changing tokenomics Of ethereum would make it immune to Bleeding back to bitcoin and I've Continued to argue that I do not think That is true And I think if it were true you would See higher ether Bitcoin valuation since The merge but the fact that it's been Putting in lower highs to me continues To sort of support my idea in my own Mind anyways that this is just a series Of lower highs it has also been a series Of lower lows right We put in a new low on The Ether Bitcoin Valuation since the merge as recently as As just you know a weakest or a week ago Or so so this thesis in my opinion Continues to play out it's just playing Out in a very slow manner okay it's Going incredibly slow but I I will say Again like just because it's going slow Doesn't mean it's not happening And we have to be we should at least be

Cognizant of that fact right just Because it's not going down you know 50 In a weekend doesn't mean that it's not Bleeding and you can see that it has Been bleeding for quite some time now One Counterpoint that someone might try To make is that well is this a wedge That should be considered bullish right That might be a Counterpoint that Someone might try to make the idea that It could actually bounce out back up This way I will argue that anything is Possible and that's why I say you should Not take this necessarily to the bank be That as it may we actually had a Somewhat similar pattern Back over here If you remember the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation was also following a very Similar pattern back over here uh in the Last cycle where it was putting in these Lower highs and slightly lower lows now It did not last as long as it has this Time but it is still it was still a very Familiar pattern right and it ended up Breaking to the downside even though a Lot of people thought it would have Broken back up Very similar pattern interestingly Enough this level here this 0.05 level Is more or less where The Ether Bitcoin Valuation bounced off of right if you Were to go look at at this bounce here You can see that's also where the

Ethereum Bitcoin valuation bounced over Here before going into this sort of Secondary distribution phase which ended Up being nothing more than a lower high Right like this was a lower high Compared to this one back over here just Like this was a lower high compared to This one and there was also an even Higher high back even further So I can't help but think that there is A decent probability that the thesis is Still sound it's just taking place over A long time period now one justification Or rationalization of this could be Along the lines or the idea that there's Just more excess liquidity in this Business cycle than there was in the Last one and maybe that's why it's Taking a longer period of time for this Ultimately to come to fruition to Fruition but I would still argue that it Is still happening whether you know Whether it's happening as quickly as Some people might want it to obviously Is Up For Debate but it is still happen Okay now something we talked about as Well are the monthly hikanashi candles Of The Ether Bitcoin valuation and they Actually are kind of interesting to me Because you know we've talked about this Long-term pattern of The Ether Bitcoin Valuation where you sort of get your Initial distribution Um followed by brief re-accumulation

Into your sort of your your real Distribution phase and then your Secondary distribution phase right so You have your one two three and four Arguably this was one And then this was your sort of Re-accumulation two three and four So I would argue that You know we're just sort of following This same type of pattern Just like we did last cycle right And so the argument is well you know When is this actually going to break Down and what would actually cause it to Break down if you remember one of the Things that I've said time and time Again is that during this stage of the Cycle the purpose of Bitcoin USD pumps Is to break the altcoin market down on Their Bitcoin pairs so that when Bitcoin USD dumps the altcoin market has nowhere To hide they would have lost their pivot Points in a Bitcoin USD pump because They struggle to catch a bid but then When Bitcoin rolls back over and goes Back below the 20 week SMA those all Coins have no ability no real ability at Least for the most part collectively it Doesn't mean there's not a few that I'll Perform but for the most part they have No real ability to catch a bit Um because they are much further along The risk curve and as liquidity dries up We know that that the the riskier assets

Get hit the quickest and the hardest Right we've seen this play out time and Time again so that might raise the Question in your own mind well what was It that caused The Ether Bitcoin Valuation to drop over here right like Why did it drop what broke it off of This support because for a long time we Were holding We were holding this sort of wedge as Well right and it it would have been Argued as a potential bullish pattern by Some I imagine Um but it ended up breaking to the Downside rather than the upside This breakdown of ether Bitcoin did not Initially come on a Bitcoin USD dump Although it was followed through the Bitcoin USD dump a few months later or Even just a few weeks later where it Actually started was from a Bitcoin USD Pump right it was this pump right here By Bitcoin USD That knocked The Ether Bitcoin valuation Off of its support so that then when Bitcoin USD came back down the ethereum Bitcoin valuation just simply had Nowhere to hide and you can see that the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation went down During a Bitcoin pump and it went down During a Bitcoin dump it did both and That was wherein lies the thesis of the Dominance of Bitcoin ultimately heading Higher now one interesting aspect or one

Argument about that I see people talk About with with the Bitcoin dominance is That there's no way it's going to go to 60 percent uh which has been my general View for quite a long period of time is That it should find its way you know to That 60 level before this is all said And done now it's currently sitting at 51 percent now remember in this video Over here the idea of going to sixty Percent seemed like a foreign concept to Many that was when the dominance was at 40 percent now it's at 51 and and a lot Of people are still writing this idea And trying to figure out well where is This where is the the rest of this Dominance rally going to come from I Would argue that a large part of it Could in fact come from ethereum if you Look at the ethereum dominance it's Actually around 20 percent or so right It's around 20 this is essentially these The same levels that it actually dumped At From that point that we just looked at Right when we looked back at the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation in 2018 that Wedge where did it break down from when Bitcoin USD pumped it broke down from Around these levels right I mean it was Essentially the same level almost that It that it actually broke down from I'm Not suggesting that it has to go all the Way back down here although it could but

I am suggesting that at the very least We should see it break back down to These levels now if the ethereum Dominance were to go down say 10 and it Goes back to say Bitcoin or or somewhere Else you could easily get another five Or six percent tacked onto the Bitcoin Dominance just from the ethereum Valuation alone so I would say that the The altcoin Reckoning Is likely not over until we see the Collapse of the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation now one interesting thing if You go look at ether Bitcoin It was this collapse right that sort of Marked the end right it was it was Revisiting the prior low and that was Where all coins finally started to catch A bid on their USD pairs was when Ethereum's Bitcoin valuation Revisited This Mark here And it happened approximately a year Later About a year later So the argument of course is well what If this is similar to this And perhaps all coins can finally catch A bid when the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation returns to these levels I Don't know I mean this is a this is this Is one potential idea I'm not Necessarily standing by that idea right Now because I do actually think the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation will

Eventually break lower uh just like it Did back over here right I mean it might Come back down to this level bounce back Up and then eventually roll back over Maybe into the um into the having year But this is there's this idea that the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation should head Back to this 0.04 to 0.05 level maybe Bounce a little bit and then go to the 0.03 to 0.04 level before it can really Find a low and that has been my view for A long time and it will still continue To be my view until proven otherwise and You know I I don't exactly because People say well what's the invalidation Well How can we invalidate it when it's Playing out just all night very slow Time frame right I mean if if the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation we're just Continuing to Trend up right I mean if It were trending up like this like it Did back over here if we're training up Then perhaps I would be willing to throw In the towel on it but it's not right Like it's just been trending down in a Very similar fashion that we've seen in The past very similar patterns that We've seen in the past Furthermore one idea is that why look at The ethereum Bitcoin valuation at all Because it doesn't account for the Supply The supply is not constant right we know

That I mean you know ethereum used to be Quite inflationary now it's deflationary And it's actually this deflationary view That make a lot of people think that it Won't go down against Bitcoin but then I Say well why is it going down against Bitcoin if the tokenomics matter so much It is still going down not as quickly But it is still going down If you look at the ethereum Bitcoin Market cap ratios you get something that Looks like this and you know is it an Oscillator I don't know I mean it could Be and if it is then it could come back Down here even if it's not an oscillator Maybe it comes back down to the 0.25 Level like where it retrace that's half Of the move which is I I think you could Make a a compelling case that that could Be the the low on it but we're still in This phase where I think that whether Ethereum's Bitcoin valuation will break Higher in the next cycle or not we still Are likely to see it go down in the Short to medium term now will it go up Tomorrow or next week I don't know Oftentimes it will just to make people Um you know criticize the theory even More but then again you zoom out you Come back a few weeks later and Oftentimes it's just putting in new lows Again you know it's a lower high and a Lower low

So I expect this to continue to play out You know another way to look at this This is another interesting way to maybe Look at this is to look at month or Yearly candles right so if you were to Look at at 2018 and 2019 you know in 2018 ethereum Bitcoin had had a quite a Long Wick and then the next yearly Candle took out had a yearly close below Where this Wick was so I'm arguing that This yearly close on the ethereum Bitcoin valuation could easily be below This Wick this Wick was at .049 I'm Saying that I would not be surprised to See a yearly close by Ether Bitcoin in The 0.03 to 0.04 range And from there it might start to finally Build up build out a more sustained base Again People can think all they want but look At yearly candles right negative nine Percent last year so far it's negative 13 but if we take out if we take out the Prior low over here Like we did back over here in the Prehabbing year of 2019 then from this Level you're looking at another 21 drop Against The Ether Bitcoin on The Ether Bitcoin pair and it could easily go down To another 40 drop on The Ether Bitcoin Pair this might not sound like a Compelling case but remember in the Pre-halving year of 2019 ether USD Closed below its yearly open right I

Mean you can see here it closed at you Know at around Um 0.09 or something so it closed below Its yearly open look at The Ether Bitcoin valuation in the prehabbing year 2019. look at what ether Bitcoin did in 2019 and then look at what's doing in 2023 What an exact copy admittedly but it's Not that dissimilar either right it's Not and so I guess the argument says Well is it going to continue to follow This And there's I'd say there's a decent Chance that it does right where it Continues to go lower now from a Seasonality perspective We're in the phase where ether Bitcoin Tends to bleed we talked about this in In the prior in the prior videos on Ethereum bitcoin where I said the Last Stand could easily come in May right Where it gets this this lower high yet Again and it was a lower High I mean Again if you look at at all these Peaks Right this was a this level here was 0.7093 this one here was 0.7088 right so It technically was a lower high compared To this one as well they've all been Lower highs and I said that I think may Be going into the first or second week Of June could be the last stand for the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation before we get Into this seasonality where ether

Bitcoin tends to bleed and I said I Expect June to be read and it was I Expect July to be read and it is so far We'll see where it ends up turning out At the end of the month you can see that On average The Ether Bitcoin return in June is Negative seven point six percent what do We get in June negative 7.78 on average In July the loss of ether Bitcoin is Around four percent to the downside what Are we at so far negative one percent But on average ether Bitcoin is green in The first five months of the year and Red and the second in the seven seven Months to follow the standard deviations Are high you can get some months that Are green last July for ether Bitcoin Was green right it was we also had the Merge I think that hype led to lead to That renewed interest Um but I don't I don't see that same Renewed height today and so I would Argue that it's less likely for ether Bitcoin to go up Um you know 33 this month like it did Last year I think it's more likely that It'll follow the prehabbing years and by The way the prehabbing year 2019 saw Ether Bitcoin drop 19 in July in July A 19 drop by Bitcoin or by The Ether Bitcoin valuation in July would put it If I let me go to the monthly candle so I can actually get it from this month

It would put it All the way down at around 0.05 so near The prior low So How does ether Bitcoin break off its Support right like I mean it it lasts Cycle it took a Bitcoin pump to break it Off its support you could see the same Thing play out this time as well right I Mean if you go look at at bitcoinusd What you'll see in the pre having years Of 2011 2015 2019 and 2023 is that we Often find some type of a yearly high or A significant local high before maybe a Revisit to the lows around the Summertime June or July so in 2015 it Occurred on day 193 in 2019 it occurred On day 177 In 2011 it was on day 161 we're Currently on day 185. So Bitcoin is entering into that season Where it could roll over but it just Because it rolls over doesn't mean it Can't go up first right like it could go Up first in fact if you were to average Out just say the last two Pre having years for Bitcoin and overlay It on the chart and let's just get rid Of everything else so that we can look At a little bit closer this is where we Are right this is where it is so if Bitcoin were to make that move which I Don't know if it will or not right I'm Not I'm not really taking a side here I

Don't know if it's going to go up to 35k Or not I mean if it does that would Reach the full extension of the prior of The average of the last two years If it were to go up to 35k then I Imagine that ether Bitcoin would Decisively break down but if Bitcoin Does that then from a seasonality Perspective it could easily roll over Going into the latter part of the year And that's where ethereum Bitcoin might Not be able to catch a bid because Bitcoin goes back below its 20-week SMA Right So that I think is is what we're coming Into right now is this idea well no Matter what Bitcoin does ether's Valuation against Bitcoin is likely Going to go down if Bitcoin goes up it Breaks ether off support if Bitcoin goes Down below its 20 week estimate it could Also break ether off support look at What happened back over here right so Let's go look at bitcoinusd just a few Weeks ago remember when Bitcoin closed Below it's 20-week moving average on the Week of June 5th Overlay ether Bitcoin onto here and you Will see that it was on this week that Ether Bitcoin put in a new local up Right that's when it started to collapse So we're in this you know ethereum's Bitcoin valuation is in this predicament Where if Bitcoin pumps it likely breaks

Down And if Bitcoin dumps below the 20 week Then it likely breaks down Therefore No matter the direction of Bitcoin USD The dominance of Bitcoin You like how I work it in should go up Right Yes Crypto Twitter likes to likes to Um dunk on me anytime it gets a one or Two percent pullback but look guys I Mean this has just been going up and It's been going up for a long time It's been going up for a long time now And Sometimes after you break out you get Sort of a hesitation week where it Doesn't really do a whole lot arguably That's what we've sort of been in but I Also think that there's a case to be Made that it's likely going to continue Breaking out to the upside and I also Think that the collapse of ether Bitcoin The collapse of the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation could easily Mark the end of The altcoin Reckoning that we've been Talking about for a long time if you're Unfamiliar with the altcoin Reckoning It's the idea that all coins are getting Wrecked on their Bitcoin pairs for the Better part of two years after Bitcoin USD Peaks another way to look at Ethereum is to maybe look at total two

Which is the altcoin market plus Ethereum uh we're gonna we're gonna look At total two we're gonna subtract out Usdt and we're going to divide it by the Market cap Bitcoin and look at this It broke support already Right And from the level that it's at right Now to get back to these lows over here It would still be another 57 drop now This is not just ether this is the Entire altcoin Market Plus ethereum Minus the usdt market cap divided by the Market cap Bitcoin notice how it goes to Parity or actually no 1.5 it goes about 1 1.5 x or so it goes up a little over Parity fifty percent more but also note That when things get bad it can come Down to about one-third of the Bitcoin Market cap When I when I said parody what I'm Referring to is you take ether out and It goes to parity so take ether out of The equation the altcoin market tends to Go to parity against Bitcoin at the Peaks of bull markets but it also goes Down to about 25 percent of bitcoin's Market cap at the bottom of its bear Market And the altcoin market is still about 40 Away from that 25 valuation against Bitcoin don't say it can't happen Okay It can happen it's happened before it Can happen again

Um and as long as liquidity is being Drained from the system I would argue That it will continue likely to be the Most it'll it'll pro it'll be the most Likely scenario in my view okay So where I think we are is we are well I'll say where I am with this I am in You know I'm I'm in this phase where I Think that the ether Bitcoin valuation Is likely going to collapse Um I don't know exactly when it's going To occur if I had to guess I would say It's going to occur This month right but I think it started Last month I mean you know I even said That may will likely be the Last Stand For The Ether Bitcoin valuation June was Read I think July is going to be read Too arguably it started You could argue That it started back in late 2021 right I mean it's still been lower highs since That Whatever you want to call it right I Mean we've been following this forever And it feels like we're in a holding Pattern in my view until this breaks one Way or the other okay So I think people are placing their bets Now Um I'm not saying you can't find a Bullish case for it I'm just saying that I more so align with the bearish view on The ethereum Bitcoin valuation right the Fundamental idea of changing tokenomics

On ethereum to keep it from collapsing Against Bitcoin to me it does not have As much Merit because it's also Comparing it to bitcoin four years ago When I would also argue that Bitcoin has Fundamentally changed over the last four Years so there's a lot of things that You have to consider here you know a lot Of people say that their altcoin isn't Going to drop as much as it is not going To drop against Bitcoin to its lows this Cycle because their altcoin is so much Better than it was four years ago well Bitcoin's also better than it was four Years ago so you're not comparing it to A you know something that's that's Unchanging you're comparing it to an Asset that's growing in adoption every Single cycle so don't compare it to what Bitcoin was four years ago compared to What Bitcoin is today and then we'll Talk So we'll see if it plays out The receipts are there if it doesn't Play out then you know I'll I'll have to Hold my hand high and say look I was Wrong but all like all I see Month after month after month all I see Are people keep calling for the flipping When it's just been putting in lower Highs Okay if the flipping were in the process Of occurring why has the ether Bitcoin Valuation been putting in lower highs

Since the March Ask yourself that if the token on this Mattered so much why is it putting in Lower high since the merge my view the Market spoke long ago and said that that Doesn't matter what matters is liquidity And yes at some point ether will likely Outperform Bitcoin again it could start As early as this September in fact it Was last cycle where ether Bitcoin Bottomed out in September of 2019. So you could argue that if ethereum does Collapse against Bitcoin in the next Couple of months or so that could Mark That could be it for the ethereum Bitcoin evaluation and maybe it is a Higher low it could easily be a higher Low it does not have to be a Revisitation to the .01 to 0.02 level it Does not have to be that's sort of the Bullish for you but even in the bullish View which if you're not familiar with The bullish view is this idea that um That the ethereum Bitcoin valuation is Some is on some type of logarithmic Regression type Curve right where it's still trending Higher I can be a minimal to that I I can be Amenable to that that view I could Potentially agree with that view I don't know yet but the point is if This view is correct In my mind it still has to come down

Here first If this view is correct If it's incorrect then it can still come Back down here But regardless of whether you agree with The bullish view of higher lows Or the more bearish View And the the more bearish for you being It's just this was the initial Capitalization and ever since then it's Just an oscillator Right Whatever you agree with if you agree With that if you if you think one of Those two scenarios is the most likely Outcome in either scenario you still Have to go to 0.03 to 0.04 first right Whether you believe in the bullish view Of it or The bearish View Where people might disagree is a third Scenario that says that the ethereum Bitcoin valuation does not revisit these Levels and and it just continues to go Higher and flips Bitcoin I think that is An unlikely outcome One of the reasons why is when you look At The Ether Bitcoin market cap ratio we Actually got closer to flipping we Actually saw ether come closer to Flipping Bitcoin in 2018 than it did in 2022 and in fact it got a lot closer Back in 2017 than it did in 2018. so if Ether's making progress on Flipping Bitcoin then why is it putting in lower

Highs you can also view this just on the Ethereum Bitcoin chart I mean you know This is a high and then you have a lower High and then you have a lower high and Then another lower high So if ethereum is in the process of Flipping Bitcoin why is it putting in Lower highs The Optimist would say it's Putting in higher lows okay And again I can potentially get on board With that but regardless I still think It has to come back down here first And if it's down here Then we'll start then I'll then I'll Start to take look more at the the Bullish case and and I would actually Probably become a bit more neutral on it Right at that phase maybe I have a Crypto portfolio that incorporates you Know Bitcoin and ethereum as opposed to Basically just Bitcoin right because at That point you know perhaps it becomes Worth the risk in my view but at this Point I still think it's more likely to Bleed back to bitcoin just like the Altcoin market has and likely how the All coin Market will continue to do so For for at least another two or three Months anyways if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Again check out the sale on into the Crypto versus premium at into the Subscribe again and I'll

See you next time bye


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