ETH/BTC Outlook

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation more specifically we're going To discuss the likelihood of a potential Collapse if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out the sale on into the Cryptographs premium at into the let's go ahead and jump In so it should be of no surprise at This point uh to to most of you that my General expectation is that the ethereum Bitcoin valuation will continue to Slowly go down now it has been going Down slowly for quite some time but it Could start to accelerate as we get Further into the summer and we've talked About this a lot I've tried to do as Good of a job as I can to prepare people For what I would consider to be the most Likely outcome before we get too far Into this I do want to say that Throughout this video I will present Plenty of evidence to suggest that the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation will go down A lot Um with that said There's no such thing as a sure thing in Financial markets okay so you know I can Present all the evidence for something And it doesn't mean that it has to play Out uh so I do want to at least

Acknowledge that to the people that Would disagree with my point of view do Know that you know no even if we Disagree there's still right there's Still a chance that the evidence does Not actually you know that it doesn't Actually pan out but I do want to Explain why I still think that the the Drop of ethereum Bitcoin has been going On and will likely continue to go on now One of the things a knee-jerk reaction To have is something like this is that Well we've been talking about the Collapse for a while now right and one Of the things about the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation is it has been relatively Resilient we know that again I will Humbly point out that despite all of These moves to the upside by by the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation it should not Detract from the idea that legitimately Every single pump has just been nothing More than a lower high even this move Here topped out at around 0.07093 And then the most recent one topped out At 0.07088 so even that one's a lower high Right even that one's a lower high Compared to what came just a month or Two ago so there is this element of hey If the merge were so you know were such A great thing for the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation then why has it been putting In lower highs since September which by

The way again was a lower high when Compared to December of 2021 so I still Can't get I I can't remove myself from This obvious fact that I think a lot of People choose to ignore and that is the Fact that we have seen a series of lower Highs since late 2021. the merge did not Change anything it has not changed Anything now one might say That the narrative or sorry the Tokenomics of ethereum have changed Things I would argue they haven't changed much Of anything in terms of the ethereum Bitcoin valuation now one reaction could Be to say well Ben it's mid-2023 and it's still sitting At .07 so what gives right what gives if If if this were 2018 or 2019 it would Have already dropped well a Counterpoint To that is that there is so much excess Liquidity that has just been taking a Long time to shake out now the ethereum Bitcoin valuation has been going mostly Sideways since May of 2021. you can very Very easily see this by just overlaying A 50-week moving average and seeing in Fact that it has gone sideways Um you know here since April of 2022 I Mean obviously not Sideways from here Because it's going to take a while for The 50 week to get up there but it's Basically just been going sideways for a Long time okay

Now even though the tokenomics of Ethereum of course changed and we know That there's these deflationary aspects To it we should remind ourselves that The the Bitcoin dominance right the Bitcoin dominance it just broke the Range High and again the Bitcoin Dominance is also concerned with the Altcoin market too it's not just Ethereum it's also the stable coin Market and so the ethereum dominance Hasn't really budged yet it's still Sitting at about 20 to 21 so this excess Liquidity from this cycle has taken much Longer than it did last cycle right so Last cycle we were able to break the Range High relatively quickly this time It has taken a much longer period to Break it argue arguably because of all The excess liquidity so I think it would Be premature to celebrate the resilient Or the sustained resilience of the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation as if it Means that it won't drop at this stage There is still a likelihood a strong Likelihood That the Bitcoin dominance rally to 60 Percent will be fueled by the collapse Of the ethereum Bitcoin valuation one Thing to consider is that the last time The dominance was at this level and or Maybe slightly below was in the summer Of 22 the summer of 22. that was the Last time the dominance was at this

Level but what's interesting about that Is when it was at this level it was when The ethereum Bitcoin valuation Was all the way down here at around 0.05 So now we have the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation at 0.067 and the dominance of Bitcoin is already above where it was Last summer So my speculation is that now the Range High is broken just like it broke over Here just like it broke in 2019 as well The the the fuel for it to go higher Will largely come we're not maybe Largely it'll come from the altcoin Market too but I think a lot of it will In fact come from the devaluation of The Ether Bitcoin ratio okay so yes if you Are a bull on the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation you would clearly appoint Towards its resilience that is what you Would Point towards And that's true it has been resilient But then again there's a lot of altcoins That have been resilient and I don't Really consider ethanol but there are a Lot of altcoins that have been Relatively resilient this cycle compared To the prior cycle but we are still in a A period of QT and higher interest rates And a slowing economy And therefore I I do think that we will See a very similar outcome at the end of The day one of the things that I wanted To mention is that there's several

Guiding moving averages that we can we Can look towards there is of course the Bull market support band which consists Of the 20-week SMA and the 21-week EMA You can see that really ever since January of 2023 the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation has been unable to get back Above it in a sustained way it did Briefly happen back over here it Happened back over here and then it also Occurred back here Now we talked about this we said guys it Can pop above it but if it just comes Back down the following week then it was It was a fake out right and if you zoom In here to the bulmark sportpin for the Ethereum Bitcoin evaluation you can see That it actually closed below the 20-week SMA And the 21 week EMA for that matter and So far this week has just been a Continuation of that Trend right it's Just continuing to push lower so as far As I can tell all we've seen with the Ethereum Bitcoin violation is a series Of lower Highs at least in the short Term Now I will remind you that over a longer Period of time we have seen a series of Higher lows but we've also had lower Highs from 2017. so there's this element Here of perhaps the time to consider a More likely bullish trend is somewhere Down here

And maybe it's down here that we can Then start to speculate about some type Of recovery but I still do think that This part is going to be a necessary Component whether you want to argue that The ethereum Bitcoin valuation is an Oscillator and it has to come back down Here or whether you want to argue that It'll eventually come back up this way I Think no matter what it likely has to Come back down in the short term before We figure out the ultimate trajectory of The ethereum Bitcoin valuation Another moving average that you can look Towards and this is something we spoke At length about a couple years ago Before a few years ago before the bull Market began is the 20-month SMA so if You look at the 20-month moving average You will see that once upon a time we Held support on the 20 month And we sort of broke through the 20 the Reason why it was important was because Back in early 2020 we were watching how The ethereum Bitcoin valuation kept Coming up to the 20 months but unable to Break it it finally broke it in July of 2020 back tested it and then off to the Races we got a monthly close below here But just like with the bull market Support band it was a fake out and we we Came back up right and then now we've Started to get multiple monthly closes Below the 20-month SMA right so over

Here you had a breakout and then back Test and then go now we have a break Down a back test and then potentially go Right so that is what I'm still looking At is this idea that it's likely going To turn around look at the 20-month Moving average in general I mean you can See that there's there's some elements Of ebb and flow to this thing and it Looks like it's it's potentially about To to roll back over again so I do think That's another way that we can look at The ethereum Bitcoin evaluation another Way to look at it is to go take a look At the daily candles and compare it to Bitcoin usd's distribution phase if you Go look at Bitcoin Many of you will likely remember how There was this period in 2021 where Bitcoin USD had this distribution phase In early 2021 right you have one two Three and four ethereum's Bitcoin Valuation have the same thing right you Had One two three and four and then Bitcoin Came back down right it retraced it then Went back up and got your little one-two Punch for your last and final Distribution phase before the actual Downtrend began the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation also had a very similar thing Right your little one-two punch and the Secondary distribution phase and ever Since then it has been down now with

Bitcoin remember you know just because This trend started down it wasn't you Know it wasn't clear that was going to Break this level until quite a long time Later right I mean it you know we had to wait until The summer of 22 to actually see this Break back to the downside This from this point right from this Peak here to the actual breakdown the First breakdown was about 183 days if You look at the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation from this point here it's been Already 281 days so it has been taking longer Admittedly but I would still look at This and say guys this is still A downtrend right like this is still Very much a downtrend right like Bitcoin USD had a downtrend right it wasn't Straight down it went down back up and Then collapse the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation has done all sorts of stuff Right I mean it hasn't it hasn't just Gone down in a straight in a straight Line it is Um Let me actually draw a path on here so I Can you know it's been sort of all over The place but every single time it ends Up just slowly pushing lower so I'm Thinking that it's likely going to come Back down to this range relatively soon Maybe bounce and then get the final

Collapse Um down down this way so that's what I'm Looking towards for the ethereum Bitcoin Evaluation again if you want to Um talk about you know the the amount of Time it's taking it has taken longer Than I thought it would might not happen Right it might not happen but it still Does seem to be to be the most likely Outcome and if you wanted to take the Other view and say that it's been Bullish then I would argue how can you You know how can you say that Considering that again it's just been a Series of lower highs so if it's so Bullish why is it a series of lower Highs continuing on another thing that We can look at Our monthly hikanashi candles so if you Look at the monthly High kanashi candles Of the ethereum Bitcoin valuation you Will pretty clearly see right you have You know your initial just your initial Move up and then your first distribution Phase and then your second distribution Phase right so you have your initial Move up and then your first distribution Phase and then your second distribution Phase note that after this really the Secondary distribution phase we kind of Hung around this level for a while we Had some red hikingashi candles we had Some green but then once we got to July We saw the collapse right once we got to

July now We're still kind of hanging out up in This area but I'm guessing within weeks I don't know exactly when right but Within a few weeks I think it will also Collapse in the same way Okay so you have you know you have Several different moves here and if we If we were to sort of draw a path right You have your first move two three four Five six seven eight Right So doing that again for this cycle You have one two three four five Six Seven Eight So that's sort of the path that I think It will go and it probably isn't going To bounce back up this high like if it If you know if it bounces it might do Something like that Um so drop drop as we get deeper into The summer maybe bounce back up and then And then the final the final collapse uh Could come could come a little bit later So I'm thinking it's going to look Something like that now one thing that We should remind ourselves of is of the Tokenomics because there there is this Idea of why are we looking at just the Price valuations considering that the Supply can change right So perhaps a better way to look at this

Would be the ratio of the ethereum Market cap divided by the Bitcoin market Cap and this goes back to the idea that You'll see many people talk about and That's the idea of the flipping but I will say you know I mean if the Ethereum ethereum hasn't really made any Progress on that in fact the ethereum Bitcoin market cap valuations were Actually uh higher in 2018 than they Really ever came during this most recent Cycle so if anything I think you could Argue that there hasn't been any Progress by the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation to to Earth by ethereum to Flip Bitcoin from one cycle to another Now of course there's been there's been Progress since you know 2019 but I'm not Comparing it to 2019. right we're Comparing it to over here one gotcha Moment that I see a lot of people say is Things like well you know this has been Going up since 2019 and you know how can You call it Bears I I would like to Remind you again right that I was very Bullish on it throughout this entire Phase okay it wasn't really until over Here then I finally said hey it's it's You know it should likely bleed back Down and it slowly has been right it Very very slowly has been especially After after after we had the merge rally Finalized so I will remind you that just Because you're bearish on something you

Know over here doesn't mean that you've Always been bearish on it it just means That you know it's a market markets Change and you should be allowed to Change your mind The other thing to look at here is that This is potentially an oscillator and You know we don't really have the data On this go on this chart at least going Back to 2015 but even sure you can Imagine it was it was probably a lot Further it was a lot much further down Than this but you can imagine that it's Sort of like an oscillator at you know As a potential outcome I'm not saying That it has to go all the way back down To these levels but it still would make Me think that even if it doesn't go back All the way down here it could come you Know it could retrace half of this move Um so I'm so I'm still looking for for That to to play out okay the other thing I wanted to mention is if you look at Monthly candles for the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation we talked about this before we Mentioned it many times in May is that Normally once you get into June going Through the rest of the year the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation tends to Bleed meaning not every single month but A lot of the months in the pre-halving Year of 2019 you'll note that in June July and August we had double digit Losses every single month

Okay we then had sort of like a a brief Break in September and then we still Continued to go down in October and December Not more or less smart a double bottom For the ethereum Bitcoin valuation so I Still think that a majority of the rest Of the year for the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation will in fact be read now the Standard deviations on this of course Are large so you can see definitely There are some green months in the back Half of the year the back seven months But on average the first five months of The year tend to be green for the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation in the last Seven ten to be read and just visually Looking at this right I mean you can Look and see over here it's a lot more Green over here there's a lot more red So from a seasonality perspective I Think we're entering into unfavorable Times for the ethereum Bitcoin valuation And I would argue that and as I said Last month I think that you know the Really The Last Stand will probably be In May and then starting in June we Should start to see the you know a Larger correction take place so far it's Only down about two and a half percent But I do think that that could Accelerate Um as we as we continue to push forward Through the month and as we continue to

Push forward through the year The other thing that I wanted to mention Is that normally you know when Bitcoin Closes below its 20-week moving average From weekly close below the 20-week Moving average to weekly close above the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation tends to Underperform so if we can pull up a Chart here Um so this is the chart I need to make My videos smaller so that you can see it All so we're going to put me up there And normally what this chart shows is Like from when it when Bitcoin breaks Down to when it breaks up what happens And so you can see that in 2016 when Bitcoin broke when Bitcoin broke down To when it broke up Bitcoin above the 20 week Bitcoin had Gone up four percent ethereum had Dropped 10 percent Right so this is a period here where Bitcoin went below the 20 week and Bitcoin outperformed you can see that in February of 2018 breakdown until breakup In March Bitcoin went up 40 percent Um ethereum only went up five and a half Okay Uh March of there's several here because There was a lot like you know just back To back to back but Um there is March of 2018 till July of 2018. Bitcoin went down 14 ethereum went Down 35

Breakdown in August of 2018 to March 2019 Bitcoin went down 43.5 ethereum Went down 67 percent breakdown September 2019 until breakup of January 2020 Bitcoin went up four percent ethereum Went down four percent Breakdown March of 2020 until breakup in May Bitcoin went up 11 ethereum only went up Five percent so what you're seeing is That every time Bitcoin breaks below it Until It Breaks back above it Bitcoin Tends to outperform ethereum right here Plus one to minus seven and a half here It was so so break down here was Negative 5.3 for Bitcoin negative 21.8 For Eve here it was negative 50.4 for Bitcoin negative 51 for each I mean it was mostly equal but still Technically ethereum lost more November 2022 until January 2023 What do we see plus 28 for Bitcoin plus 27 for ethereum technically well it's More or less equal technically Bitcoin Had the lead So what this shows is that 10 out of 10 or sorry Nine out of nine times nine out of nine Times that Bitcoin broke below its 20-week moving average until it broke Back above Bitcoin outperformed ethereum now Sometimes Bitcoin went down and and Ethereum just went down a lot more

Sometimes you know you might have saw Bitcoin actually go back up by the time It broke back through the 20 week SMA During that period if it had a large Candle or something but legitimately Nine and we've had this table up for Years you might say well now that Everyone knows I don't know guys we've Been talking about this table for what The last three years and so far nine out Of nine times it has worked every time Bitcoin Falls below its 20-week moving Average on a weekly close Bitcoin has Outperformed ethereum Until we had a weekly close above Now the reverse tends to also be true Except for one potential scenario and we Talked about this you can see that from Break above the 20 week SMA by Bitcoin Until break below ethereum tends to Outperform bitcoin right here October 2016 until February 5th 2018. Bitcoin went up 1161 ethereum went up a Very modest 6715 percent If you look at breakup from March 2018 Until March 12th 2018 What happened March 5th marches to March 12th Bitcoin went down 17 ethereum only Went down 16 percent If you keep going with this idea you Will see time and time again how Bitcoin Tends to underperform ethereum when Bitcoin is above its 20-week moving

Average Except and we talked about this before As well except for one time That was in the prehabbing year of 2019. Bitcoin broke up Bitcoin went up 106 Ethereum only went up 29 this is why we Said in 2019 or sorry we said in 2023 That even though bitcoin's about the 20 Week a lot of people might assume that Ethereum will outperform Bitcoin History shows us that it's not a likely Outcome right it says look in the Prehabbing year Bitcoin tends to lead Because the dominance needs to go higher Now what happened we just had the Breakup in January and now we had the Breakdown in June Bitcoin went up 24 Ethereum only went up 12 so it was a Fail in terms of above it only working Eight out it's not only worked eight out Of ten times but I would argue that it's Not really a fail because this statement Here should really be above it it works If it's not a prehabbing year so if you Know if you're to program it right like If year is is not the pre-halving year Then it the expectation is that ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin when bitcoin's about The 20 week SMA until weekly close below But if it's the pre-halving year then Bitcoin tends to outperform ethereum Right if it's the prehabbing year and This is the the prehabbing year so you Can see that it did not work

But that's not a failure of this Indicator because we said it wasn't Going to work going into it more than Likely we said it's the prehabbing year Bitcoin will likely outperform ethereum Okay This is what we said many many times so I I think that you know you can make the Case that this this actually worked out Relatively well and um and and so far I Would argue that that the indicator has Been very very helpful Another way to look at this too is that If you go say look at things like Um you know our Roi after cycle Peak for Not after cycle Peak Um year-to-date Roi is what I want to Look at whereas that one is right here If you want to look at year-to-date Roi For Bitcoin And you look at say 2019 you can see That Bitcoin ended the year positive up About 2x off the off the yearly open Ethereum even though Bitcoin went up That year Ethereum actually closed below the Yearly open Right just below the yearly open so There is this element of the ethereum Bitcoin valuation tends to fade in the Second half of the prehabbing year So my expectation Going into you know as we as we continue To March forward through this year

Is that this will fade Now I mean you can see a very similar Area here right I mean we we had we had Some red and then we had a little bit of Green and then it finally rolled over Right so we have we have this sort of Phase here I think that right now we're Potentially right here and and we're on The on the cusp of of a major breakdown By the ethereum Bitcoin valuation of Course it could still take you know Several weeks for it to play out uh but I would still argue that fundamentally Nothing has changed and if you're if You've been a bull on the ethereum Bitcoin valuation you still have to come To terms with the AI with the fact that It's just been lower highs you know one Of the brutal Parts about about bear Markets for assets is that a lot of Times You'll spend more time going up than Going down it's just that when you do go Down it goes down very quickly right so Like you'll you'll come in here and You'll you'll move higher for so long But it doesn't mean that it can't just Completely take out that move extremely Quickly okay so please please be aware Of that right I mean just like over here We we more or less Trend it higher it Didn't change the fact that despite the Fact that we have all these Trends Higher we eventually took out and put in

A new a new local low compared to back In October of 2022. So if I had to draw a path for the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation I would draw Something like this right I'd say all Right maybe it's going to hang out in Here a little bit Um but it likely will fall back down To this level here maybe bounce back up And then fall uh to the 0.03 to 0.04 Range and then from that level We will I would I would assess you know I would I would then start to assess Like okay what's going on you know What's the likelihood that this could be The low or or is it is is it more Bearish than that but I still do remain Bearish on the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation I do think it needs to fall Back down remember once Bitcoin broke The Range High in in you know back over Here we moved up really quickly and part Of the reason that the dominance moved Up a lot back then was because the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation started to Collapse because the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation back then essentially Collapsed from around Um If I So here I guess it was all it was all The way down here so it was around 0.058 And then it ended up collapsing all the Way down to about 0.017 now I'm not

Saying it's going to go back down to 0.017 but I still do think that this Breakout here was a very bearish Shine For the ethereum Bitcoin valuation and It ultimately dropped a lot more as the Months continued on so I do think that That is the likely outcome as well just Looking at the the Bitcoin dominance Anyways I think we'll wrap it up there If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and again check out The sale on into the crypto virus Premium right now the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation is coming in at 0.06723 so perhaps we will have to Reassess this Um I mean we'll do some assessments Before the end of the year but once we Get to the end of the year uh six months From now we'll come back and say all Right well did the ethereum Bitcoin Violation drop Did it drop Like this maybe Or or did I do something else and I I Don't know yet but I've tried to outline I you know I've tried to lay out the Evidence for why I think it's going down And um if you agree with it great if you Disagree with it great obviously you Have to make your own decisions this of Course is not Financial advice anyways We'll wrap it up there thank you guys

For tuning in I will see you next time Bye


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