ETH / BTC Outlook

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about ethereum more specifically We're going to be discussing the eth Bitcoin valuation if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out intothe cryptoverse Premium at intothe cryptoverse Bitcoin pair I actually launched my Channel in the summer of 2019 and was Very vocally bullish on the eth Bitcoin Valuation over here but I flipped my View on eth bitcoin to bearish up Here because we knew that the Fed was Going to raise rates a lot and they were Going to be reducing the size of their Balance sheet considerably and so My Reflections on all of this stuff has Never been sort of an assessment on Ethereum's fundamental value it's more So an assessment on monetary policy Right and I I'll try to continue to say That as much as I can because I think It's often Misconstrued a lot of people might say Well you know if he's bearish on eth Bitcoin that means he's always been Bearish on it which means he's against Eth and that's not true I mean it's just A matter of of where we are in the Business cycle where we are in the Market cycle and I I think it's a good Idea you know to just establish that

Look even assets that you might like Like ethereum are going to go through Phases where they bleed against Bitcoin It's always been that way it'll probably Always be that way and so rather than Fight that Trend I think it makes more sense to Just say look you know when the FED is Reducing the size of their balance sheet Considerably e Bitcoin goes down and When they're expanding it eth Bitcoin Tends to go up and this is this is one Of these like battles I've had to fight So many times with people is to say you Know this this downtrend that you see The eth Bitcoin pair in it's more so an Artifact of just Tighter and Tighter Monetary policy just like it was last Cycle once you see the pivot back to QE Then e Bitcoin will likely bottom out Now I want to go on the record now and Say I do think the bottom for eth Bitcoin in Terms of time is relatively close I Still think the bottom is somewhere Between 003 to 004 that is my base case And I think it's going to happen Sometime this summer so those are my Views I want to make sure I clearly Communicate those views I often you know What I often see a lot of people say is You know they'll sort of put out a sort Of a half view on it and then when e Bitcoin RPS iies they'll throw shade my

Way and then when it dumps they'll just You know pretend like they didn't do That but that is my view and it's based On on monetary policy and nothing more That's what it's based on and I do and Well I guess there is a little bit more I mean it's not just based on monetary Policy it's also based on the idea that Ethereum is slightly higher risk than Than Bitcoin and therefore it's you know It's more exposed to regulatory pressure It's kind of like how the spot ETF for Bitcoin was approved and while it Hopefully eventually the E ETF gets Approved it might not get approved this May and that's just another artifact of Of you know regulatory pressure on Ethereum that doesn't really exist in The same way for Bitcoin so one of the things that we Talked about a few weeks ago in this Video right here we made a video on eth Bitcoin after it had rallied to 0.52 now Before that that video before this video The video before it on eth bitcoin said We could see one final Bounce by eth Bitcoin following the Bitcoin having and The reason for that is bit Bitcoin is Often sort of like the most Vulnerable against eth just after these Major events if you remember right after The spot ETF launch eth Bitcoin went up Right you see that you can see that we Had the spot ETF launch right here the

Week of of January 8th and then right Right then that's when eth Bitcoin shot Back up so when you have these major Events that's when the eth Bitcoin pair The Bulls for the eth Bitcoin pair are Going to make their run they're going to Declare the bottom being in for it Because it's now past this major event And that's exactly what happened after The spotf the eth Bitcoin Bulls ran it Back up but as I said you know back then This is likely just a repeat of all of This right you get a low a high you have A lower high the same thing right here But that if it played out like last Cycle going into the having you will see One more attempt for the eth Bitcoin Bulls to try to break the bull Mark Sport band but that it likely will fail And again it doesn't mean that it can't Go back up one more time but as I said Already what I thought was going to Happen was just after the having the eth Bitcoin Bulls run it up one more time And that is sort of symbolic of of those People pricing in the unlikely Acceptance of the E spot ETF now again That doesn't mean that I want it to be Rejected I actually like it when we have More things to talk about other than are The ETFs going to be approved or Rejected and if it is rejected I would Have High Hopes in the future that it Will finally it'll eventually be

Approved but right now you know is it Going to be approved I honestly have no Crazy insight into that I'm just going Based on what what Market what industry Experts are telling me and and they're Mostly saying I mean not telling me just Telling you guys on Twitter that it's Likely not going to happen and so the Initial bounce is sort of the pricing in Of maybe just maybe it'll be approved But that as it's not approv as the as The probability of it of being approved Goes down meaning the SEC is not really Engaging with anyone regarding the eth Bitcoin spot or the eth spot ETF as They're not really engaging and people Kind of are seeing the writing on the Wall that's when the people that Initially tried to price that in are Like all right it's just going to fade Back down slowly which is what it did Over here right it's exactly what it did Over here again I don't think you need a Narrative to explain this price action I'm just saying it wouldn't be that hard To try to assign a narrative to the Chart just like you could have assigned Some other narrative to the Chart back Over there on that bounce but again my Expectation is that the bull market Support band for eth Bitcoin will guide It down and the closer you get to the Potential rejection of the spot ETF the More likely it is that you end up taking

Out this low over here from a month ago Now remember after this low was set in May of 2013 we took that low Out about how many weeks later let me Actually get this exact so back then it Took about 8 weeks to take that low out I don't know if it's going to take eight Weeks or not I would tend to think it's Not and the reason for that is it seems Like this move over here has been going Slightly quicker than the one from back Over here for instance you know if you Were to take the amount of time that it Took to go from you know this low right Here in late December to the next low That was 22 weeks whereas from here to Here it was only about 13 weeks so it Seems like moving a little bit quicker So I don't really think it has to take 8 Weeks but if it did take 8 weeks that Would put it all the way out in in June Right so I mean it's possible but even Though it took eight weeks to break the Low it didn't take eight weeks to get Back down to the low you can see we Actually got back down to the low only Six weeks later right the wick came all The way back down to that low so if you Were to go six weeks out from that low That would put you the week of May 20th Which correct me if I'm wrong But I do believe that is the Week where we're going to find out one Way or another about some of these ETFs

Right again I haven't been following it Super closely but I have seen some you Know some things saying like May 22nd May 23rd I know that the SEC keeps Trying to kick the K down the road as Much as they can but you know what if it Just bleeds back down and then breaks Support then now what would like L Happen in that scenario is that if it Were to break support it could probably Go down relatively quickly over the next One month or so but my view again is This is that if it breaks Support again which it kind of already Has I mean it's been breaking it and It's just been the Market's kind of Adjusting to to it at these levels but If it continues to break here and go Down that's probably going to represent The final capitulation process of eth Bitcoin and the reason why I feel Compelled to tell you about this is Because what I think could happen is That if the ETF is rejected and eth Bitcoin Capitulates then a lot of people are Just going to say they're going to put On their Maxi hat their Bitcoin Maxi hat And say all right you know forget eth It's just going to go down on its Bitcoin pair forever But what if they're wrong right what if The reason it has been Bleeding has nothing to do with its

Deflationary mechanism what if it has Nothing to do with proof of stake what If it has nothing to do with the Potential spot ETF rejection what if it Only has to Do with monetary policy and Inc you know Slightly increased regulatory pressures But what if it's just based on monetary Policy and then you get this example Down here where eth Bitcoin Bottomed when the Fed started to expand Their balance Sheet how poetic would it be e Bitcoin Capitulates after e spot ETF is rejected And then people are like all right fine We believe you but they represent the Last capitulation right and so once they Finally Believe it then Bottoms I'm guessing around .3 to .4 And the reason for it to bottom would Have nothing to do with this PF which I Think is what the headlines would read It would just have to do With maybe maybe the FED is about to go Back to looser monetary policy which They've already started to talk about in In several different ways one of those Ways is the um they've said that they're Going to slow quantitative tightening Down from like 60 billion or something a Month to 25 billion That's something and there's also some Other things that are going on that that

Might actually um you know sort of be Seen as as stimulating uh to you know to The economy as well in the next few Months but my point is this you have to Think about what would cause the FED to Go back to loose monetary policy is it a Coincidence that they're going to go Back to looser monetary policy not I Mean it's not going to be QE but it's Going to be slightly looser than what it Has been cuz they're going to start Start tapering QT is it a coincidence That they're going to go to 25 billion a Month instead of 60 billion a month in June which is precisely when we said That Bitcoin do that Bitcoin dominance Might top sometime this Summer which is coinciding with when People don't care as much about the Markets so I look at this and I think There's s there's a great Opportunity in this idea of eth Bitcoin Bleeds back down around you know around The time of spotf Rejection it breaks The lows Capitulates and then everyone thinks That eth is done because it just look it Looks bad right if you know there's no ETF and Bitcoin has one they capitulate And then it bottoms not because of the Spot ETF Rejection but because of loci policy Finally

Arriving and if you think about It what would cause the FED to go back To lose their monetary Policy weakening in the labor market Right if you go look at the labor market The unemployment rate it's at I mean This is this is the unemployment level You look at the unemployment rate it's At 3.9% you know and last May last May from April to May it J it jumped 3/10 if it Were to jump 310 from April this April To May i' put it at 4.2% right you can see how it could all Correspond Perfectly right ETF rejected e Bitcoin Capitulates but right then unemployment Rate hits 4% or over 4% and then the FED goes to looser monetary policy and Then e Bitcoin bottoms just when Everyone finally believes in the Capitulation process but they're only Now believing after the entire move is Done Done you know I've been very vocal about My views on E Bitcoin for a long time And you know next cycle I'm not going to Be honestly but I do think that you Could easily make the case that you are In sort of this phase right Here where after you break down you know It then drops a little bit more over the Next couple of months and I'm going to Show you guys a chart that I think is

Somewhat compelling but from here you Know this was a 47% drop that was a 32% Drop from the range from those lows you Know if you were to dropped just say 15% That gets you near 0.004 you know if you Were to dropped 20% that gets you to the Range that we've been discussing for the Last two and a half years 03 to 04 and That's where I think the bottom is on E Bitcoin is 03 to 04 but it has nothing To do with the spot ETF I could even Envision a scenario where the spot ETF Is approved and it still goes down you Know I mean wouldn't that be crazy if it Were approved everyone then freaks out Yolo's in and then it still goes down Because the Market's not based on the Spot ETF it's based on the fact that Monetary policy is still tight now There's something I want to I want to Address here and I I've spent a lot of Time thinking about this and I I Honestly don't really have the best Answer but I'll try to provide at least An analogy for you last cycle if you buy The idea that it e Bitcoin B Bots once Looser monetary policy arrives then You're probably also following what the Fed's doing okay because you can see That I mean that's when it bottom last Cycle is when loer monetary policy Arrived and so you're probably watching This too and you're thinking like all Right well whens it going to stop going

Down they've already said they're likely Going to adjust quantity of tightening You know they're they're going to adjust It starting in June which is exactly When we've said you know Bitcoin Dominance might top June July I don't know what happens if you Know it does something like this like if It goes down and then instead of going Down at the same Pace it then does Something like this where it just Slightly goes down you know what I'm Saying because in that case you could Argue that that is looser monetary Policy but it's still not QE right it's It's not as bad as before but it is Still QT and I don't really know honestly we Only have one example but what I want to Talk about now before it becomes an Issue in in a month is there might be Some Merit to this something like that Could Still provide a Tailwind for eth Bitcoin Sometime later on this Summer and I maybe one analogy to way is One way to think about it is like this All right let's think you are you you go Out on vacation for a week and you get Back to your house the heater went or The the air conditioning went out while You were gone I mean I think that's Happened to everyone at some point I Know it's happened to me before and you

Get back to your house and the air Conditioning has been out and it's the Summertime so you get back and it's like 85 degrees in your house now if it's 85 Degrees in your house you're not going To want to be in there right you're Going to be in there you're going to be Sweating um it's going to be really hot Right 85 degrees and you're probably Going to think to yourself like gosh Like if only we could get this back to a More reasonable temperature then I would Feel H you then I'd be happy But you don't actually have to wait for It to get back to your preferred Temperature like 70° 72° or you know 68 Whatever all you really need to start Feeling better is for the air Conditioning to come back on so if it's Still 85° but you're sitting next to the vent Where the AC is coming out of if someone Comes over and fixes it you're going to Start feeling better before the room Temperature gets back to 70° right even Even if it's at 82 if you feel the cold Air sort of blowing on you you're going To start feeling Better markets are forward-looking right Once you see it what you know once the Temperature is back to 70° and it's Obvious to Everyone then you know the low for eth Bitcoin could be in the rearview

Mirror so I think there's a case to be Made that you could still see the low This summer on the eth Bitcoin pair if It were to play Out kind of how I've I've been outlining For the last two and a half years now Again there is some I mean there's a lot Of people that are are saying the low is Already in um and like I mean look they Could be right right and I've said Before I mean you know if you if you did What I did and and and um we're we're Looking at this Market back over here And thinking all right it makes sense to Stick with Bitcoin over eth until loose Monetary policy Drives you could trade some of it back Even at these levels and still be way in The money and just you know deal with it If it goes down a little bit more but my Point is that you know we've seen this Pattern many times before by many I mean Too and the way it eventually resolved Was to the Downside there's one really interesting Way to look at e Bitcoin and that's by Six-month candles and I I want to show You this because I was looking at it I'm Like this we're getting close in terms Of time I don't know how close we are in Terms of valuation but I think we're Getting close in terms of time meaning I Do think we're likely only you know Potentially one month away to three

Months away from the bottom on E Bitcoin One to three months do you see six-month Candles I want you to look at this you Have a green candle right here you have A green candle here then you have a red Then you have a red then you have a Green then you have a green then you Have three Reds in a row and we just We're we're now in our third red in a Row six Monon candle for eth Bitcoin Right you can see that right three in a Row now here's the thing about this that I've I've I've looked at for a long time I've really struggled with with the best Way to interpret it and and the way to Sort of communicate it to you guys but There's one thing that I think is Important to note and this is what has Made a lot of people feel like eth Bitcoin is quote unquote holding up well Again I've not been of the assumption That it is I think eth Bitcoin has been Not holding up well at all for the last Two and a half years but a lot of people Have said that it's holding up well and The reason they say that is because it You know it hasn't seen a big drop right If you go look at at say quarterly Returns right look at quarterly returns For E Bitcoin point and you'll see what I'm talking about it's been a slow bleed So it feels like it it isn't happening Right I mean look at this e Bitcoin is Now read six quarters in a row and it's

Also been read eight out of the last 10 Quarters I mean like that's not the Definition of holding up well if you're Bleeding eight out of 10 quarters but Look at this a lot of these quarters you Know it's only dropping like 2% here 12% There 5% there 5% there and so it feels Like it's not a lot but then you kind of Look back on it at some point and you're Like oh while everyone thought it was Holding up well it still dropped you Know 47% against Bitcoin but I want you To look at something here because this Is kind of interesting do you see this First red candle right Here after this green one you see how Large it was it was a it was a big drop And the next two were really small or Really low really small red candles it Was only 24% 33% but this one was 50% Now look at these over here this one was 12% and this one was 15% so I'm arguing That these two candles are like these Two but perhaps this is the one that Comes at the end here to get it down to 003 to 04 potentially after rejection of The spot ETF in in a few weeks and then It potentially bottoms out in the summer Which is precisely when we've said that Bitcoin dominance excluding Stables is Likely going to top right and that's Probably when it's going to top because That's normally when Bitcoin dominance Finds a a top is sometime in the summer

And then once you get back into Q3 Q4 You know the DJs return from their Summer vacation and they start bidding Up alts again so what if that's the the The outline right what if you know Dominance excluding Stables just kind of Goes back up to the Range High Here not the Range High the top of the Wedge this is 64% but including Stables It would be 60% right as eth Bitcoin is breaking down to03 to 04 Following spot ETF Rejection I just I feel like that is Probably the most likely Outcome based on on what we see I I Really do think that is the most likely Outcome and So for me to be bullish on the eth Bitcoin Pair I first of all think you need lose For monetary policy which is probably Going to start in June but that doesn't Mean that the low is in it means that We're close in terms of time but not Necessarily close in terms of valuation It could still drop 20% from the current Valuation which might not sound that bad But there's a reality of like you know If you do drop below that you're Probably going to stay below that for Like a year until you dirly get back Back above it in fact if you look at it Over here once we dropped Below in June

Of 2019 we we had some Wicks back above It but we didn't durably get back above It until June of 20120 it took a year so You know maybe it doesn't sound like the Worst thing in the world for eth Bitcoin To go down here but if you do if you go Down there you might spend the next year Down there before before going back up And remember I mean ethusd wasn't really Doing that well when eth Bitcoin was Down here eth Bitcoin had bottomed but Eth USD was still stuck in traffic on Struggle Street until Bitcoin until Loser monetary policy until really the FED turned the money printer back on Right while looser monetary policy had Arrived in Q3 of the prehab Year back Then we didn't really see the money Printer come back on in in sort of all Its Glory until the having year um so That is my view on on the eth Bitcoin Pair and I I think it I think I've made My case for it over the last two and a Half years i' like to think it's been Helpful for some of you you know for Some of some of the viewers um it's it's Not fun you know it's certainly not fun Uh being bearish on something that you Know a lot of people are here because They believe in ethereum right I mean if You're watching these videos even even If you've been with me on this journey Right even if you've been with me on the Journey uh and you agreed two two and a

Half years ago that eth Bitcoin was Going to go Down I know some of you guys are Watching that are watching our Bitcoin Maxis and I can empathize with that view Too but the reality is that a lot of you That have been on this journey with me Are probably long-term bullish on on Ethereum from a fundamentals perspective And you you want to believe in the Future of the cryptoverse and I do too It's just that I saw this happen last Cycle like this pattern play out and it It it was not fun to sort of not be Prepared for it this time you know Converting your your eth to bitcoin back Over here It saved you a lot right because not Only did you hold a a a a lower risk Asset in Bitcoin now if you wanted to convert Your Bitcoin back to eth you can Essentially double up right I mean you Could double up and it has nothing to do If you're a Bitcoin Maxi or not even if You're an eth Max you know there's a lot Of people that that I've seen people say Like they're they're eth Maxis and they Begrudgingly agreed with me back over Here and while they did not like that I Was sort of preaching this view they're Like it makes sense and now even if you Don't see the capitulation which I still Think you will even if you don't they

Have the luxury to basically double up On their eth right that's what I tell People about like these Bitcoin pairs if You like the altcoin so much that you Think is the best thing in the World it would be prudent for you to Understand it's Bitcoin valuation Because that's how the cryptoverse works Right there are phases where no matter What altcoin it is it's going to bleed Against Bitcoin and if you can identify That phase and just stick with Bitcoin Through that phase then you have the Luxury to then go pick up that altcoin At nothing on its Bitcoin valuation Compared to what you traded it in for Initially so that's why I say you know If you really are super bullish on a Specific altcoin long term I think it's Still useful to learn about its Bitcoin Valuations because if you can learn About it then you'll you'll know okay There's certain phases the market cycle It might make more sense just to be in Bitcoin even though I believe in the Future of that Altcoin right because you're like all Right these views have nothing to do With with Ben's bias on on this Particular altcoin it just has to do With hey this is what happens when you Know when tighter monetary policy Arrives it's nothing personal it's Nothing like that it's just this is what

Happened high high risk bleeds to low Risk during this phase of the Cycle where you know the FED is is Stubborn and and we're still at high Rates and we're still in in in Quantitative Tightening so those are my views um and I I I think you know going forward you Know if we if we do see a capitulation By eth Bitcoin below the range lows um Then it it likely will sort of kick off The final capitulation process and I Think it's going to happen relatively Soon I mean it Is is potentially already happening and Again you you could still see another Bump back up for a week or something Where people are like all right well Maybe it'll still be approved the ETF But I still think as I said before I Think the initial reaction is going to Be people pricing it In and then it's just going to fade once It becomes clearer and clearer as you Get closer to the date that it's not Actually happening and then as you get Towards that date then it actually just Sort of capitulates below when the Market finally accepts that hey you know Maybe we're going to have to wait Another year or longer before this Actually arrives so that is my view here Right and if you go back to the Six-month candles that we were talking

About Earlier what you'll notice is that that Last red candle I mean the green candle Was still kind of near those lows so That's why I think while I do think e Bitcoin is probably going to bottom this Summer you know is it in June where at Bottoms at the end of this six-month Candle or is it in July at the beginning Of this six-month candle you know and I Don't know the answer to that question I Mean at that point if you find eth Bitcoin at like 0037 or something in June I mean that's Probably good enough for me you know to To to sort of flip my view on the eth Bitcoin valuation I'm not going to try To pinch I'm not going to try to like Pinch SATs you know to um to see it go Down to wherever it has to go to but and Again the you know one thing to sort of Keep you in check on that is because I Mean I know I've talked about Bitcoin Dominance potentially topping in in June and there's there's a chance that That happens um but there is this you Know there is this other reality of if You look closely you'll notice that Actually in 2022 it didn't top in June Right it actually topped in July about One month later right it had a top in June but then it swept that top about One month later so you know I could see That happening as well where like it it

Bottoms in June loose to monetary policy Arrives and then maybe it even goes a Little bit lower in July um SL August or Something but I you know if if you're Finding Bitcoin dominance up at this top Of the wedge and you're finding eth Bitcoin at like 003 to 04 you're you're You're probably close enough at that Point um that would at least be my view On it in terms of like where the low Would actually be for the eth Bitcoin Valuation um so that's where we are by The way the uh the bull market support Band right now for eth Bitcoin is at 0525 to 0053 so it is continuing to come Down and I the reason I provide that Update is because that is sort of the Line that I think will continue to push E Bitcoin down and you know it's Possible you still Wick above it like 2019 had some Wicks above it but I still Think it's going to inevitably bleed Back to the downside take out out this Low from April um or at least revisit That low uh within the next couple of Weeks and then probably take it out Either later on this month or in June as The final capitulation process arrives And E Bitcoin bottoms out and again I Think it bottoms out not because or I Think the capitulation process happens Not because um of anything to do with The spot ETF I want to be clear I'm Saying that for you know the people that

Really want to assign a narrative to it In crypto I think it bottoms out in this Summer because if you follow the labor Market there's some cracks starting to Show right and I mean that's just the Reality right some cracks are starting To show and you know again if you look At at the unemployment rate it's it's Those very things that cause the FED to Pivot right to lose for monetary policy I mean it's the fact that you know we Are getting close to that 4% level and It's probably going to happen this Summer and and also I mean if you look At if you look at like Roi uh after yield curve inversion and You look at at say like this cycle Compared to let let me just pick some Like random um metric here in the Macroverse Um what's one that we could look at Right um something related to like the Labor market right so we just looked at Unemployment let's go look at Job losers Right let's look at Job losers so this Would be sort of what what you know the The Ro Roi on job losers don't really Make a whole lot of sense but basically The performance of job of job losers That category after inversion of 3mon And 10e yield and you look at it and You're like all right it's been going up You know it's been going up for a long Time and I know the market doesn't

Really seem to care but I go back and I'm like well does it look like any Other cycle or is this time really Different and then you know going to the Pandemic one I don't really think makes A whole lot of sense because that's not Something you're going to like bet Everything on you're not going to be Betting on a Black Swan right but if you Go to the cycle before that one the Business cycle before for that one in 2006 I mean is it I mean is it different I just I don't know I'm not saying it Has to get this bad but it just it Doesn't really look that different to me And if you do see it continue to grind Higher here that's just going to make The FED go to lose her monetary policy So while I think everyone might be Freaking out about you know eth Bitcoin Because the spot ETF might be rejected You might actually see eth Bitcoin Bottom out this summer because the labor Market is finally showing weakness and That is what causes the FED to start to Expand their balance sheet has nothing To do with the alt coins or anything Like that it just has to do with the Labor market and so that is is what I Will continue to focus on um and again Remember I mean even though eth Bitcoin Bottomed out right here ethusd still Struggled for a little while right again There's a difference between eth Bitcoin

And Ethusd Please be aware of that right There is a difference difference between Those two metrics if eth Bitcoin bottoms That doesn't necessarily mean anything For ethusd ethusd is going to be very Dependent on bitcoin USD but I think that eth Bitcoin is Likely going to to bottom out sometime In the next few months And I just want to make sure that um you Know I've communicated my thesis as Clear as I can I could be wrong right And if I'm wrong here then you know so Be it in order for me to start Questioning that if we were to get back Above the bull market sport band and Hold it as support then I would be Willing to Pivot my view okay But it's just been down for years right With I mean that's just what it's been And the bull market support B continues To guide us down with occasional rallies Above it but they've all just been fake Outs that just drew more people in they They thought it was the bottom and then It it wasn't um I also think the other Thing to look at this is something we Talked about a lot in in the last cycle And that is the 20mon moving average so In the future you know some nebulous Future date when eth Bitcoin gets above The 20mon SMA that should be

Confirmation of this phase being over But I think we're about to sort of enter Into that process right and then we go Back up and then we take out that 20-month SMA you know sometime out in You know 2025 or something maybe even Late 2024 but that is something we talked About a lot actually last cycle because If you look closely when eth Bitcoin had Bottomed over here in 2019 it then all These Wicks just kept getting rejected By the 20-month moving average we did a Lot of videos on this like I mean it was Like four to five months of just Straight rejections off the 20-month SMA We finally broke through and then once We broke through we then back tested it We we retested out support and then Continue to go up so you know that could Certainly happen at some point in the Future we're still pretty far away from The 20-month SME right now and as last Cycle showed you know you start to test It as resistance for a few months likely Before you actually get back above it The 20-month SMA right now is at 0615 I Mean it's it's so far above where we Currently are my guess is that you know You have sort of this capitulation down We spend some time down here as the 20mon comes down to it and then you Start to go back up to it kind of like This and then you you you break above it

Kind of like that is what I would Generally expect for the eth Bitcoin Pair but those are my views on the eth Bitcoin pair and we will see in fact if All of that plays out this summer or not And if it does not then I would be Looking for you know basically does it Get back above the bullmark sport band To sort of confirm that it's it's done Again my base case is that it it it Bleeds into June and and maybe July but It's always worthwhile to figure out What would invalidate your view or your Bias and so perhaps the bull market Support ban would be the invalidation Right if you if you get above it and you Hold it as support that would be you Know the the invalidation of it right so Here's the 20we SMA right it just Continues to to mostly stay below that Well we're going to wrap it up there Thank you guys for tuning in make sure You subscribe give the video a thumbs up And I'll see you guys next time bye