ETH/BTC Ongoing Collapse

Hey everyone and thanks for dripping Back into the cryptoverse today we're Going to talk about ethereum but more Specifically we're going to be Discussing the ether Bitcoin valuation And the ongoing what I think is the Collapse of the ether Bitcoin ratio if You guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out the sale On into the crypto various premium at Into the I know these videos that I put out on The Ether Bitcoin pair are Probably some of the most polarizing Um but I do feel it's important to Continue on with the analysis even Though I know a lot of people Wholeheartedly disagree I will say that You know it's important that you Recognize that there are you know there Are people that are going to have Arguments for why it's more likely to go Up than down but for my own for my own View it seems like it is still in a Macro downtrend and I know these views Have not been the most popular but I I Look back at all these all this analysis These videos that we've done you know on The Ether Bitcoin pair and I I can't Help but think that those videos were Warranted because ether Bitcoin still Just keeps trending lower you know So we're going to talk about The Ether

Bitcoin pair we're going to talk about Ethereum dominance as well and how it Relates to bitcoin dominance and so on And so forth so please understand that I Am trying to stay objective I know some People just say I'm a Bitcoin maxi Uh because because that is what they Think because they just hear me Constantly talk about the devaluation of All coins on their Bitcoin pairs I talk About why dominance of Bitcoins likely Going higher and I talk about why the Ether Bitcoin pair is likely going lower But what we've seen is we've seen the Dominance but Bitcoin go higher all year We've seen ether Bitcoin drop all year And and I I don't think these views have Been out of line so The one of the reasons for really Focusing on The Ether Bitcoin valuation In the first place is because I I think The the final collapse of it could Actually Mark the end of the altcoin Reckoning we've talked a lot about the Altcoin Reckoning and I think the the Altcoin Reckoning will likely end after The collapse of the ether Bitcoin pair But for those that do think I I only Have ever been bearish on it I will Point you again you know to any of my Videos on The Ether Bitcoin pair in you Know in 2021 and 2020 and 2019. from 2019 to 2021 all of my videos on ether Bitcoin were mostly macro bullish we

Talked about some you know periods where It would likely fade back to bitcoin When Bitcoin goes through parabolic will Run but for the most part from 2019 to 2021 my ether Bitcoin videos were were Bullish but in 2022 I sort of changed my Stance because it sort of seemed like Well we gave it our best shot and and This was as high as we're gonna go And you know I I did not really see a Compelling reason to see to think that We would actually take out those highs And we haven't I mean you know while There have been some nice realities in Here we never really took out those Highs and it still just has been a Series of lower highs and lower lows I Will also remind you you know if you Just go to my channel and you sort by All those videos the the first two Videos You'll see are on ethereum and And how we were very bullish on ethereum Back in 2019 when it was when the ether Bitcoin pair was it around 0.02 And it was called timing the long-term Momentum shifts and the video that came After that was called you know ethereum And I was talking about how undervalued It was on on not only is Bitcoin pair But also his USD pair as well so so Hopefully you know you you could go Watch those older videos on ethereum and And see that I I do have the ability to See it in a different way but at this

Time I still remain bearish on The Ether Bitcoin pair now when you look at the Chart what you'll notice is that you Know this has just been a series of Lower highs and lower lows right and Again the most common responses to these Videos and I'll go and address them Right now because I guarantee they'll Show up right but the most common Responses are you're not accounting for The merge right you're not accounting For the deflationary aspect of it and Um And you know people would say well that This is this will eventually break out To the upside you know but the problem With the first one is to say that the Merge changed everything would sort of Imply that The Ether Bitcoin Trend was Bullish ever since then but if the ether Bitcoin trend has not been bullish since The merge then how can we argue the Merge changed anything How can we you know Now it is true to say that you know by This point in the prior cycle the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation was much Lower it's also true to say that in the Prior cycle The Ether Bitcoin valuation Went a lot higher as well so perhaps one Way to think about this is if you get These major blow-off tops it can be Easier to sort of go back down just Because there weren't you know think

About it like this when you only spend a Couple of days at these levels you know There's not there's not necessarily many As as many people that need to get Washed out of the market before it's Fully reset when you spend like years up Here I think there's just a lot more of Excess liquidity that has to get washed Out and it just takes longer but this Simply is a series of lower highs and Lower lows ever since the merge so sort Of my retort to the sort of the Deflationary argument of well you know It's deflationary now therefore It's a bullish thing And I I see this every single video that I do on this but it's like well if that Was such a major thing why does it keep Going down and you know the reason is Because you cannot just use supply-based Models to tell you the direction that These assets are going to go you know if If the supply is is you know Deflationary or whatever whatever the Tokenomics are it doesn't necessarily Tell you anything about about how many People are going to come out and and buy It you know so you have to remember that Supply-based models are only one part of The equation If if you only could depend on Supply Based models then you know if Supply Based models were the only thing that Matter then yes I I could sort of see

That argument but there's also this Demand side of the equation so the Supply-based models only really go so Far to really tell you you know what What likely outcomes are So you know ever since the merge right That we had last year we have seen a Series of lower highs And lower lows right and every single Time we get these rallies it it draws People back in And gets them to think that ethereum is Is going back up and and and and going To take out those prior Highs but what Ends up happening is we just basically Eventually go to a lower low And one of the interesting things is you Know when you look at all these prior Movements here a lot of times after Getting these major sell-offs you would See The Ether Bitcoin pair move up quite A bit right it would move up quite a bit But then it would still move down but Then as you got further on you know the The moves up Kind of got less and less impressive Um to some degree and then now we're not Really getting a move up hardly at all I Mean you know after this major drop what Would normally come after a major drop Like that would be some sort of move up But instead it sort of just gone has Gone sideways To me this suggests a lot of weakness

Because again like you can see that Really for the last year or so After these major drops The Ether Bitcoin pair would just sort of spring Back into action and go back up and and Lead to lower Highs but it would at Least lead to a significant move that Was a lower high but it was still a Significant move to really you know keep You on your feet this time though we Didn't really get that right we went Down and then we just sort of went Sideways this to me again suggests a lot Of weakness in The Ether Bitcoin pair That's not to say that we can't get Rallies back up you know I mean a lot of Times we'll make these videos and at Some point in the next few weeks you can You know you might see it move up even If it goes down first you know it can Always can always move back up but The macro trend has been pretty clear For anyone who who cares to look for it Okay and it's been a series of lower Highs and lower lows since the March Okay now There are other ways to sort of view This and and one of the more interesting Ways and we talked about this a lot even On the day of the merge we noted this Is that this sort of looks like a Distribution phase right you have your First distribution phase not that Dissimilar from what Bitcoin USD did in

2021 right you got a distribution phase Up here Four Peaks and then Bitcoin got Us summer Lull in the summer of 2021 and Then ether Bitcoin after this Distribution phase got this summer lull In 2022 Followed by Bitcoin getting a secondary Distribution phase that had two pretty Well defined Peaks right your one-two Punch and then from there it faded and Eat their Bitcoin got this sort of this One two punch into the merge and ever Since then it is faded but note that Bitcoin eventually took out these lows It took a while to get there but it Eventually took it out I would argue That The Ether Bitcoin pair is sort of In this range right here where it's Barely hanging on And at some point in the not so distant Future my gas is within the next couple Of months we likely see this Break down here Okay so just like Bitcoin USD you know It sort of it tried to hold on but then Eventually you know it just collapsed Down to these prior levels and you could Even see it take out those prior lows Now from that point what you'll notice Is that Bitcoin while it went below it And it bounced back up it was never Really able to get a significant bounce Off of this level and then eventually it Just broke down again so I suspect that

The collapse of the ether Bitcoin pair Will Mark the end of the altcoin Racketing and it could look something Like this where it drops it then sort of Slowly rebounds for a little bit only to Then drop further into that .03 to 0.04 Range that is my best guess as to what Is likely going to happen as the year Continues on Another way to look at this too rather Than just say comparing it to bitcoin Because they are different assets but It's to look at this on say like a a Longer time frame let's look at this on A monthly time frame Okay we're gonna look at it in several Different ways but on the monthly time Frame the first thing is to look at Hikanashi candles on the monthly time Frame and you can see a fairly well Defined double distribution phase last Cycle you have your sort of your initial Move and then a double a sort of a Double Peak distribution phase same Thing this past cycle right your initial Move and then a double Peak distribution Phase where eventually it likely Fades Back down into some of these lower Levels now I'm not saying that it has to Go all the way back down to 0.016 or Anything like that but I do think it Will likely fade back down to the 0.03 To 0.04 range at the very least that is My that is my general expectation

For you know for people that have been Bullish on The Ether Bitcoin pair all Year and there are quite a few people That have been very bullish on it they Talk about how it has been bullish all Year and you know go take a look at the Monthly hikanashi candles for ether Bitcoin They've been read since January 2023 so You know there's nothing about this Chart on the monthly High kanashi Candles that has been that has been Bullish in fact every single candle this Year Hikanashi candles for ether Bitcoin has In fact been read showing that the General trend has been down Now you can also look at the 20-month Moving average this is a moving average We don't really talk about that Frequently but it is something we talked About a little bit at the beginning of The bull market Um for for The Ether Bitcoin pair and so It is worthwhile to talk about it we we Spoke about the ether Bitcoin valuation At a 20-month estimate right here and we Noted that this was likely once we broke Through the 20-month SMA it would likely Lead into our macro bull market of The Ether Bitcoin pair so we were watching This every single month back in 2020 uh You could probably go back and find Those videos but we noted that ether

Bitcoin was trying to break through that 20-month SMA and once it broke through It it would likely lead to a bull market You know you can see here we broke out And then we back tested that 20 month SMA here we we got sort of a fake out Below it But what's interesting is now we're sort Of seeing the reverse right we came Below it and then we went back up to it Only to get rejected and you'll see if You go back and watch some of the prior Ether Bitcoin valuation videos that We've done this year we even talked About it when it was up here at the 20-month moving average at around 0.07 Saying that it was likely going to get Rejected and again this was not a Popular view you know at 0.07 and and Back when the Bitcoin dominance was back At 40 percent most people were calling For it to break down to 30 percent you Know saying dominance is going to go Higher for Bitcoin was not a popular View because of the implication of the Altcoin market what that meant for the Altcoin market So yes I mean I know a lot of people are Are saying again that that Bitcoin Dominance is is is is is not looking Great but I I would I would still beg to Differ and say that you know it it looks As good as it has been for for a long Time and it's still likely going to

Continue trending higher especially with What I think is going to be this Collapse of the ether Bitcoin valuation I think it's going to be a very large Tailwind for Bitcoin dominance to go Higher and that would go whether the Altcoin market drops or not and I think The altcoin market would drop with with Ethereum uh with The Ether Bitcoin pair Dropping but it it wouldn't need to for The dominance to go higher so you can See that you know I mean even on the 20 Month moving average you can see it Topped out over here and and those here For these macro Trends and it looks like It's topping out here or it looks like It already topped out and it's really Starting to Trend down so my guess is That you see the Ethereal coin valuation Come down here it popped back up for a Little bit and then fade Um is is my best guess as to what it's Going to do in the in the coming months Um Another way to sort of look at the The Ether Bitcoin pair is to I mean you can You can also just simply look at weekly Candles and and take a look at its bull Market support band so we talk about the Bull market support band for Bitcoin UST But look at the bull market for ether Bitcoin you know previously earlier in This year we we were above it and then We kept back testing it right and every

Single time it drew more people in it Drew them offsides it led to people sort Of dunking on the on the bearish eat Their Bitcoin views but they were all Fake outs right They did not lead to new highs they were Just lower highs and this time we Haven't even shown any ability to get Back above it right we talked about Earlier in the video how all these other Moves we saw a pretty significant Rallies back up after ether Bitcoin saw A big drop right like over here it Bounced off the 20-week estimate right It was bouncing off of it then it was Rallying back up to it Now it can't even be bothered to see a Significant rally into it So I still think it's looking not the You know it's not really looking that Great in the sense of it it seems like It's starting to slowly break down now Remember these Bitcoin rallies that we Get they they break ether Bitcoin off of Its support level so if you were to Overlay Bitcoin USD onto this chart what You'll notice is that you know when when Eat their Bitcoin Falls it usually Happens on a Bitcoin rally right when it Sort of breaks these support levels and You can see again here that it's Starting to break this support level on A at least a very minimal Bitcoin USD Rally

And you can see that after Bitcoin gets That rally Even though even though Bitcoin USC Might go back down and sometimes the Ethereum Bitcoin valuation goes back up A little bit it never gets you know in Each of these cases you don't really see It getting back above that prior support Line right it sort of stays below it and Then goes down again stays above that One for a while holds support and then Goes down again and it just keeps on Going on and on and on it's sort of like You're living out the this tightening Cycle by the fed and you can see it in The crypto charts one of the great Things about crypto is that it's more so Dependent on excess liquidity than Anything else so oftentimes it actually Makes more sense than the stock market Can because the stock market is Dependent on a lot of other things Otherwise it's just liquidity but with Crypto it's mostly just dependent on on Excess liquidity and you can kind of see How liquidity is slowly leaving the Crypto version you can kind of see it Just being slowly removed as ether Bitcoin just goes lower and lower and Lower and it's a painful and slow bleep Right it's a very painful and slow bleed And you know because it's so slow it I Think it leads to a lot of people Continuing to put a lot of money into

The into e into ether assuming it's Going to outperform bitcoin and it just Keeps going lower and lower and lower And I'm guessing that we're going to see It break below 0.06 relatively soon and You know that might start to catch People catch people's attention Once it you know once it starts with a 0.05 as opposed to a 0.06 and that might Draw the attention of some people the Attention of of some of these people That are are just sort of ignoring this Drop and then it could lead sort of it Accelerating down to these levels which Was you know below 0.05 right I mean This was all the way down you know at Around 0.04 0.049 or so so that's really what I'm Still looking at for The Ether Bitcoin Pair now one of the things that we talk About a lot is on the channel is of Course Bitcoin dominance and one of the Things I wanted to mention and the Reason I'm bringing this up is because I Believe we might be seeing the same Pattern for for ethereum start to play Out so a lot of people will of course Talk about lower highs on bitcoin Dominance they are are quick to point That out uh I will also point out we are Seeing higher lows as well so far that Doesn't mean that we'll always see lower Highs and it doesn't mean that we're Always going to see higher lows that is

Just what we've seen so far if you're Going to point out the higher the lower Highs talk about the higher lows as well Because that's on the chart too and a Lot of people don't really want to Include that aspect of the chart but you Might even see the same pattern emerge On the ethereum dominance because There's this idea job That maybe ethereum dominance is putting In lower highs Right just like Bitcoin dominance does Lower Highs but also higher lows so what If the ethereum dominance chart is also Putting in you know lower Highs but also Potentially higher lows so maybe what That means is that you know it could Eventually drop but maybe find support You know at 10 or so rather than going Back down to say seven percent perhaps It would find support at like 10 to 12 Percent or something it depends on when It happens right I mean if it happens You know soon then it could be at around Nine to ten percent if it happens much Later on then it you know of course it Could it could go it could go further up Um but on a shorter time frame I know a Lot of people think that you know it can Never make it there because it's all the Way up at 18.79 percent but an Interesting Trend that you might not be Aware of if you haven't really looked at The ethereum dominance chart is that

Sorry about that is that Look at this trend like look what's Going on right now with ether dominance Right just take a look at it This is what like I mean I I don't we Don't know yet if it's going to close This week but let's just assume it Closes red even though it might not this Is one two three four five six seven Eight eight Red candles in a row on ether dominance And you could go you know 9 10 11 12 13 14. you could look at the last 15 Candles of ether dominance and note that Only three of them are green Only three of the last 15 ether Dominance weekly candles are green the Other 12 are red now we could see this One you know this week flip back to Green potentially and therefore it would It would sort of change that statistic Up a little bit but what if this is is Sort of the beginning of the trend That you know this is the sort of the Final lower high that we get for a while And it's and it's just slowly in route To go back down to to much lower levels And and find eventually a higher low Remember once it moves it can move Really quickly okay For instance over here we were Legitimately at the same ether dominance In late May the week of May 23rd and we Were at 13 13 to 14 percent

A month later right so we dropped from 18 almost 19 about 18.8 percent down to 13 to 14 you know just below four let's Just say 13.8 it's about about a five You know five percent move or so just Just looking from 18 and a half 18.8 to 13.8 or so but five percent was taken Off in about a month so yes it is moving Slowly but this was also moving slowly Initially right just to sort of a slow Bleed and then it started to accelerate Sort of a slow bleed but I think we Could easily see this thing start to Accelerate in the NASA distant future One thing to remember is monthly returns For The Ether Bitcoin pair starting from June to December on average tends to be Red now that doesn't mean that every Month is is read you can see that There's plenty of green months in some Of these years that occur in June Through December but most of it is read Right they're just looking just sort of Like a a more macro view of ether Bitcoin from June to December most of Those candles most of these monthly Candles are are in fact rad now we Pointed this out You know earlier in the year just sort Of as a fair warning we said look guys June through December is probably going To mostly be read there could be you Know one or two green months but it's Probably mostly going to be right and we

Looked at 2019 and so I mean look at 2019 you had five of the last seven Months for rad and one of them one two Are green but the one of the ones that Was green was only like a half a percent Move now what has happened so far June Was read August was read and September Is is currently read July was green but It was only about a half a percent move Or not even a half percent point one Percent yeah so I still look at this and Think that the most likely direction is Is down for The Ether Bitcoin pair I think that it's most likely going to Continue to be down and and it's I I Don't know if it's just gonna keep Painfully bleeding as slow as it has Been or if it's going to pick up but Regardless it seems like the most likely Direction for The Ether Bitcoin pair Remains down okay now I also wanted to Mention another thing uh before I forget And that are that's yearly candles Because the yearly candles also tell you Something really interesting If you look at yearly candles for ether Bitcoin which you'll notice in 2018 is It was a pretty long Wick here right but The 2019 candle Closed well below that Wick Okay so this Wick from 2022 took us all The way down to 0.049 what I'm Suggesting is that This candle if it wants to follow this

Pattern it's not really a pattern right Because it only happened once so maybe It may be pattern is a bit too too much Of a um A bit of a loose term there but if it Wants to follow what it did over here it Would mean this going all the way down Below where this Wick was now if you Look closely if we just say take a move Here from the bottom of this Wick to as Low as ether Bitcoin went in the Following year it went about 35 percent Lower just for the record 35 percent Below that Wick would put you At around 0.03 0.032 around 0.032 about 35 below that Wick so I I think there's Still reason to believe that something Like that could happen that The Ether Bitcoin pair could see a significant Sell-off into the end of the year where It completely takes out this Wick and a Lot of people might think that that Wick Is going to be the low and then we just End up going lower and then that I think Could actually Mark the end of the Altcoin Reckoning Um but for me I don't really think the Altcoin market is done bleeding back to Bitcoin as long as the ether Bitcoin Pair is is well above you know is still Above these lows over here I think we we Will likely will go take out these lows And once we take those lows out in a Significant way not just like a single

Wick but once we take them out and then Go a bit lower then we can start talking Potentially about about sort of the Altcoin Reckoning being over where the All coins are no longer bleeding back to Bitcoin At least collectively some of them will Always bleed back to bitcoin but the the Altcoin market as a whole will Collectively bottom out against Bitcoin At some point more than likely and what I would be looking for is sort of the The eventual collapse of the ether Bitcoin pair so you know there's some Fair criticism that it's taking longer Than I thought it would but and that's True right but I'm sort of my Rationalization is is like it's well It's not like the bullish view was right You know I mean this is still a Downtrend you know while it's not going Down necessarily as quickly as I thought It might it is still going down and you Know the people that came into this year That were very bullish on this pair what They're left with is they're they're Left rationalizing why it keeps going Lower and and the only response that I Tend to get whenever I engage with these People on on Twitter or wherever it is They'll just say well just you wait you Know eventually it'll go back up but Guys I'm not arguing that it won't Eventually go back up eventually ether

Bitcoin probably will go back up right There's Market cycles and there's sort Of an ebb and flow to them so yes like I Would agree that eventually that will go Back up the argument is that we'll go Down before it goes back up in any Significant way right it's like it'll It'll more likely go down to these Levels and then from there we'll see What's what and who's who and if it Wants to go back up from there or not The problem is that you know just kind Of saying just you wait for a long time While it just slowly bleeds is is also Some form of rationalization right I Mean you know there's there's a lot of People that that probably got you know Pulled in to these pumps here only for It to ultimately fade and put in new Lows so I think it's important to remember that You know yes you can say just you wait But it doesn't mean that it would Actually def you know disagree with my View on the market right because Eventually I will myself I will flip Bullish on The Ether Bitcoin pair it's Just that at this phase of the cycle I Think it's more likely to keep going Down than to go up in the short term That's my view right and again I mean You know for the record I mean if you're If you're curious where the bull market Support band is for it just in case

There are any any last pumps in it Before an eventual collapse most likely Scenario but it's currently around 0.064 I don't really think there's any reason To necessarily go back there Um it could happen like if Bitcoin had a Had a big sell-off then you could see Ether Bitcoin potentially initially Spike up only then sort of slowly fade Back down kind of like it did over here Right where it spiked up and then it Faded but the entire Spike here was just Faded and any spikes back up I still Feel like would be faded in due time and Then eventually if we keep knocking on The door here someone's going to open The door and it's likely going to drop Down to these to these lower levels okay So that's what I think we need to look At here for The Ether Bitcoin pair and Just remember that you know when you Look at this You know when I look at this it looks Like the chart I mean it just simply looks like there's A lot of you know there's there's a more Much more likely chance that it breaks The downside right like you have this Sort of this initial move up and then Sort of the the Mania phase And then you go sideways for a while and Then you start to fade down and then at Some point in this fade we likely get a More significant move to the downside to

Mark the end of the altcoin Reckoning That's what I'm looking for hopefully I've communicated my points in a way That that doesn't offend a lot of people But Um those are my views I could be wrong I I've been wrong about plenty of things But I will continue to say these views Even though I know they're not popular Because I do think it it has been Playing out even though it's not what People want to see it has been playing Out and my guess is that it continues to Play out in the months to come if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and again check out the sale On into the cryptographers premium add Into the see you guys Next time bye


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