Do NOT Buy Cardano Until *THIS* Happens | Crypto Expert’s #1 Prediction

We know that crypto is extremely Cyclical right like you know you have Your Bitcoin season you have your your Altcoin season look at cardano I mean It's a it's at 29 cents look at where it Was back in April it was at almost 50 Cents today I interviewed Quant analyst Benjamin Cowan and we discuss based on The data when is the best time to buy Cardano now we start the discussion with Bitcoin then all coins then cardano so First Benjamin what's your general take On the market mover Bitcoin so I guess I'll first off say that one of the ideas That we've we've talked about for a While is you know is is Bitcoin uh just Following sort of what it typically does In a prehabbing year right and that's Where it essentially spends half the Year going up and half the year going Down uh you can actually visualize this By looking at 2015 year-to-date Roi of Bitcoin which is this pink line Um and then this this upper one up here Is sort of like this bluish purple line That was 29 19 the current line uh sorry The current year this is the light blue Line so this is 2023 so you can see that So far we've we're more or less putting In a tempered version of 2019 a more Impressive version of 2015 and just for Reference if we were to Overlay 2011 as Well if you can see that Bitcoin went up 100x uh you know in the first half of

The year which was kind of a crazy move What I see though in all cases in in I Mean look n equals three you can't take It to the bank but in all three cases Which you will see Is that either the yearly high or a Significant local high was put in some Time around the the midpoint of the year So for instance like in 2011 the yearly High occurred on day 161. In 2019 the yearly High occurred on date 177. In 2015 the local high before a double Bottom occurred on day 193 currently the Yearly High I believe occurred on day 178 although we are pretty close to Putting in a new yearly High I mean I Think Bitcoin right now is at 31k so It's certainly possible we could put in A new yearly high I would so I I still Would look at this and say you know There is still a chance that you know You could see this sort of fade in the Second half of the Year what's Interesting is if you take the average Of 2015 and 2019 you get a chart that Looks like this and what's interesting Is how it it is really tracking it right Now so if it were to you know if it were To reach that full extension Oh the last two you know the average of The last two prehabbing years that would Basically put Bitcoin at 35k if it were To then fall back down to this level

That would put it back at 23k my general Expectation for Bitcoin in the Prehabbing year is you just wreck both Sides right you wreck the Bulls and you Wreck the Bears and you get everyone Sufficiently wrecked right so that when You go into that to the having year Everyone's just been destroyed right you Know you go up long enough to make the Bulls feel Invincible then you go down Long enough to make the Bears feel Invincible by the way another way to Visualize this is look at monthly Returns for Bitcoin in the prehabbing Year so look at 2011. five of the first Six months were green Okay and then five of the last six Months were read In 2019 five of the first six months Were green and then five of the last six Months were read 2023 five of the first Six months are green if it follows what Has historically happened it means five The next six months I read 2015 is the Exception uh where the last half of the Year was actually relatively green but Note that in 2015 when the last half of The year was green the first half of the Year was more or less red so what we've Seen in every prehab and year is six red Candles and six green candles except for 2015 which was like seven green and five Red so my general expectation for Bitcoin in prehabbing years is to

Basically go sideways I mean we go up For a bit we go down for a bit and look I I think the the comment the most Common form of criticism and it's Somewhat fair right is to say well can You really call a hundred percent move Sideways right like is that really Sideways I think in the context of Bitcoin it is a fair assessment Especially when you're talking about Bull runs that go up two thousand Percent or you know ten thousand percent And again if you were to look at 25 15 These moves by the way that look like Nothing you know I think most people Would say that this was a sideways year For Bitcoin right when you look at 2015 This was still like a 90 move right like It just it just doesn't look like it Because of what eventually came after it Um so that's my general my general Thought process on Litecoin and I guess The question is Or sorry what did I say Litecoin yeah Yeah we just made a video on like coins Seriously Um that's my general thought process on On bitcoin and I think the the I guess You what's the narrative right like What's the narrative to actually bring It back down to the lows eventually or Somewhere around there and I I think it Would be You know like the macro like the economy

Really starting to slow down liquidity Being drained from the system Um you know the FED going too far and Potentially ushering in a recession I Mean the unemployment rate Still Remains Relatively low right now I think a large Part of that is due to the fact that um If you were to go look at at job Openings Um you can see pretty clearly that They've been coming down but look this Is the trend right like you can see that Job openings were trending up I think This move of the last year has just Gotten it back to Trend what happens if It goes below Trend like it did in 2020. I mean 2020 it happened immediately but What happens if it's just a slow Progression below Trend then you could Finally start to see the unemployment Rate go up and something like that could Be very negative for risk assets when Does that occur exactly I don't know but You know maybe around the Q4 q1 time Frame could be could be somewhat Reasonable and for reference uh last Cycle the higher low came in March of The having year But cycle before that the double bottom Came in August of the prehabbing year And the other thing I'd like to point Out is that this correction in Bitcoin That occurred in 2015 it started in July And it was a 50 correction right so a 50

And it was a double bottom right so a 50 Correction from 31k would actually put You back at 15 and a half which would Actually be a a double bottom so I think That's what we're looking at with Bitcoin I mean look it can still climb The wall of warri as long as the Unemployment rate doesn't go but once The labor market softens up I think That's where you get your you know Whether you're high or low your double Bottom or your lower low do you put any Credence into the this time is different Narrative because For the First Time Ever BlackRock Fidelity all these Institutional players are aggressively Getting into Bitcoin in their own way or Applying to what if this time's Different Look I mean the Market's humble us all Right they humble us all at various Points so I'm not I'm not going to Unilaterally say that new highs can't Come this year I just could say with my Own experience it's a relatively Unlikely outcome i i in 2019 when Bitcoin went up 4X I mean everyone was Calling for new highs right I mean I Feel like there was a part of all of us That thought you know Bitcoin could Break 20K I mean it went to 14K like it Wasn't even that far away from it but Then we got into the back half of the Year and it faded so you know does

BlackRock make a difference my guess is That if if there was any type of Accumulation going on it probably Occurred back at 15K Again by the time You know by the time we hear the news Like you know that stuff is probably More or less priced in right it's not It's not to say that just because this Is happening means that the you know the Asset has to go up in fact oftentimes When when you know when like Futures and Whatnot get launched that actually can Mark um you know when major products Like this get launched that can Mark Tops in fact wasn't it like the coinbase IPO that basically marked the April top In 2021 you saw something similar uh With CME in Bitcoin back in 2017. so I Would say these are these are more so Hype events but it's not it's not Necessarily going to just lead to new Highs I think you need you need much More than that so look I mean to answer Your question in short this time could Always be different although those words Tend to not pan out very frequently Right we've seen that and again like Even in 2021 right I mean when did Bitcoin Peak When it always does you know Um so yeah I think that's uh Lessons Learned and actually I was speaking to Somebody on the shoot for killer whales The crypto web3 Shark Tank TV show and

Somebody was telling me that they were Apart they provided some of the Liquidity the investment for blackrock's ETF application I think they said like 10 million or something like that and They did it back about six months ago in November so we're just hearing about it Now Um but they were Yeah I mean I I think probably the Reason Bitcoin has gone up is is not Because of that as much as we're just Seeing the altcoin market bleed into Bitcoin right like I think that's Probably the more fundamental reason Because listen I mean what bitcoin's at Its yearly high right it's at 31k But Total Market hasn't put in a new yearly High So there has to be some rotation of alts To bitcoin if bitcoin's putting in new Highs and the total market cap isn't by The way Total three the altcoin market Looks pretty pathetic I mean like I'm Not I mean it's in a rally right now one Of these short-term rallies I think but I mean it's nowhere near it's yearly High and and by the way this High here That occurred in April was still below The November high from 2022. so I think To some degree the the reason Bitcoin Has gone up is a rotation of capital

From all coins into Bitcoin How many months ago did I have you on The channel where we talked about Altcoin Bitcoin dominance was it six Months yeah it was I think it was in April I think it was about three months Ago I mean yeah the dominance was at 47 Um and you know I I said that the Altcoin market was looking pretty bad And that it was likely going to roll Over here uh there were a lot of Negative comments about that and just a Few weeks after that we saw a lot of Those coins right that we talked about Like we saw cardano put on a new low Avalanche chain link and polka dot all Four of them went on to put in new lows Just a few weeks later so I mean it does Go to show you that just because people Are hyped up on the altcoin market it Doesn't mean a thing right I mean like They can retrace that entire move very Quickly and many of them went on to go Put a new lows and this goes back to the Idea that we talked about back then that Even if Bitcoin doesn't put in a new low Right which is a possibility right even If it doesn't that doesn't mean the Altcoin market is immune to putting in New lows we talked about that back then As well right so we have a situation Here where Bitcoin is at the same price More or less that it was at back in April I mean back in April Bitcoin was

At right 31k Bitcoins at the same price But between that time and now many all Coins put in new lows and total three The altcoin market dropped from that Time it dropped almost 30 percent now What I what I imagine will happen Is you know where you know I've I'm Still very negative about the Auckland Market mainly because I think they're Bleeding against Bitcoin look everyone's Going to be bullish on them again Because they're up you know they're up 16 17 but again is it is it just a lower High I don't know I mean I still think That they're bleeding to bitcoin there's A really interesting chart that I'd like To show people and it's total three Minus the usdt market cap divided by Bitcoin so look at this chart for a Second We know that crypto is extremely Cyclical right like you know you you Have your Bitcoin season you have your Your altcoin season you have your bear Markets you have your bull markets you Have your prehabbing years you have Every season possibly imaginable and one Of the things we've seen here is that You go from periods where all coins are Overvalued against Bitcoin where they Basically reach parity right where it's Basically the altcoin market cap equals Bitcoin market cap that's why you can See it equals one right where they

Basically reach parity with Bitcoin But then eventually it fades down here Where the altcoin market is only worth About 25 of what Bitcoin is worth And then it comes back up to parity and Then it comes back down to I'm guessing About 25 now back in April if you Remember back in April the the this Metric here I mean I don't think I Showed this metric back then I think we Just maybe looked at total three divided By Bitcoin but what is and what is total Three total three is everything besides Bitcoin and ethereum oh okay so it Basically when I call when I when I talk About the altcoin market I'm referring To everything besides Bitcoin and ease I Mean I know eth is technically an Altcoin but for when I when I talk about Altcoins I mean everything besides Bitcoin Um because I think I think ethereum has Proven itself as a blue chip and I think It will stand the test of time I still Think it's bleeding against Bitcoin uh At this phase but but look I mean look At this ever I mean since April since we Since we made that last video I mean the All coin even if you take it from from Here the altcoin market dropped another 20 against Bitcoin right so I'm guessing That we're likely going to eventually See the altcoin market drop another 40 Against Bitcoin now where people could

Get into trouble and where that Statement could get me into trouble is That you know there nothing goes down in A straight line right like you can you Can of course have bounces like we've Had to bounce at this level a couple of Times in the past it also acted as Resistance a couple times in the past so You know could the altcoin market bounce Here relative to bitcoin temporarily Like it did back over here by the way This bounce back over here also occurred In the you know in the in the prehabbing Year right it was like made a June time Frame so that's certainly like something Like that could happen just remember Like nothing it's a stochastic process Right like nothing goes up in a linear Fashion or goes down in a linear fashion And what I'm guessing is that eventually The altcoin market will bleed another 40 Against Bitcoin and we could look at Individual altcoin pairs if you want to But this this basically shows you the Collective altcoin Market against Bitcoin so essentially in summation what You're here to say is altcoin daily Audience three months ago I was Absolutely right and looking in the Future if I'm right again no guarantees But my thesis is that Bitcoin dominance altcoins are going to Bleed into Bitcoin dominance another 40 Percent

Yeah I mean so the last the last video We made the dominance was at at 47 right Now it's at 51 right and you know the Video that we did before that probably Three months before the the dominance Was at you know 44 like it's not going To go up in a in a straight line it it What what the dominance tends to do is It goes up and then consolidates for a While and then bounces off the 100 day Right we've seen it do that several Times like it bounced at 41 and then at 43 and then at 47 and it just does this Over and over and over again and the Altcoin market just systematically Bleeds back to bitcoin people don't Realize it right people don't realize it Because everything feels good right now Because Bitcoin is at 31k right like Everyone feels pretty good but look at Cardano I mean is it is it 29 cents look At where it was back in April it was at Almost 50 cents I mean this is but still It doesn't change the fact that people Feel good about it it's just because They only care about what happened over The last two weeks not what's happened Over the last two months and that's what I think gets people into trouble with The altcoin March and I mean look at Polka dot I mean it's just putting in a Series of lower highs look at Avalanche I mean it you know just another series Of of lower highs the market takes a

Long time to play out look I'm guessing That the altcoin market might be done Bleeding against Bitcoin sometime in the Next like few months is my guess so it's Not like this narrative is going to go On forever I'm actually not a Bitcoin Maxi although I do see that uh criticism out there Quite a lot it's more so recognizing That hey like we're in the phase where Dominance of Bitcoin goes up so for the Most part Bitcoin will likely outperform A majority of the altcoin market and for Your audience I will say before they Before they you know go too aggressive In the comments uh I understand that There's always some altcoins that Outperform Bitcoin right especially the Smaller micro caps that are just created Right if they're like five or ten Million dollars right like those can Outperform Bitcoin in the short term They're very there's not they're not Very liquid Um it's not like you have you know large Amounts of money going in and out of These projects but yes like some of These smaller market cap coins can Outperform Bitcoin over over some of These shorter time frames so I'm not Saying that it's all all coins it's more So just the collective altcoin Market is Bleeding into Bitcoin and since you Brought cardano up

It finished the sentence with the data If you would uh don't buy cardano until This happens like what's that level that Cardano may become a buy Yeah I mean look I I've been pretty Honest about this for what over a year Now that what I'm looking for with Ada Is 400 satoshi's you know why well That's where it went last cycle and That's where it was before that I you know my speculation back in April By the way was that we would drop to Around 800 Associates this summer and That's kind of I mean that's kind of Where we went right we went down to About 850 SAS I'm guessing that Eventually we're going to come down to The 400 Satoshi range Um I don't know when that's going to Occur I mean you know if you if you look Back at history you can see that we we Did spend some time at this level last Cycle so again it's not to say that we Can't bounce off again but my general Thought process here is that ADA becomes Much more attractive At 400 satoshi's right and that would Represent another 50 drop Maybe even more right I mean almost 60 Drop against Bitcoin now again this is Against Bitcoin so I mean Ada Bitcoin Goes down if Bitcoin goes to 35k and 80 USD remains constant right or 80 Bitcoin Goes down if Bitcoin drops and Ada drops

More it's all about opportunity costs Right like so if you're if you want to Put a dollar into crypto Do you want to put it into you know the The higher risk play that is bleeding Against the lower risk play right I mean Like we're actively watching all coins Bleed against Bitcoin so you would have Preserved your Satoshi evaluation of Your portfolio had you just been Bitcoin Heavy for the last 18 months because Most altcoin I mean look at look at Ada It's bled from 6 000 satoshi's To 900 satoshi's like think about that For a second right like like this is a This is an 85 drop and Bitcoin is 50 or More below its own all-time high so Ada Dropped 85 against something that's also Currently down like 60 that's how badly The altcoin market gets wrecked I will Say and I'll just say this again right Always a good chance in the short term You could see short-term bounces right And that's what gets that's what gets These theories into trouble is that like When you get bounces like we did in May Of 2022 where Ada Bitcoin rallied up it Makes people think that the macro thesis Is dead but eventually it just rolls Over and continues heading down and that Is the most likely outcome uh I think Until we get to 400 Associates and once We get there I think Ada might finally Turn it around against Bitcoin Ben

Austin perspective links for your Channels Twitter and YouTube Down Below Uh I want to have you back on in three Four months we'll go over some of these Shorts but final thoughts Yeah final thoughts are Ada Bitcoin Right now 950 stats it was at 13 1400 Not too long ago so maybe it bounces Back up and and eventually rolls over so I'd be looking at something like that by The next time we come on so let's just See if we get if we get down to that Level and if we do then maybe I'll Finally take off my my Bitcoin Max they Had


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