Crypto will crash “worse than the NASDAQ in 2002” | Expert’s Last Warning

Remember it was crash where we Saw a very similar pattern in fact to This one that we're looking at right now I think that the the altcoin market Collectively is is basically about to Enter the the depression phase by the Way if this does not hold If if these prior lows do not hold Then there's not really a whole lot of Support today I interview Quant analyst Benjamin Cowan and we discuss how the Crypto market today specifically Altcoins is eerily similar to Collapse of the early 2000s will any Altcoins survive Benjamin's picks may Surprise you we talk ethereum xrp Binance price prediction and so much More but first Benjamin what's your General take on the market here's the Altcoin market and you know I've sort of Been under the impression that it's Generally following net liquidity Um and so as long as as long as net Liquidity is going lower than so too Likely is the altcoin market right if we Were to Overlay net liquidity onto this Chart we can generally see that as as Liquidity is taken out of the central Banks then the all you know the altcoin Market tends to go down and so I I still Have of of that opinion that the altcoin Market is likely going to continue to Get hit uh until we get closer to a Fed Pivot remember it was crash

Where we saw a very similar pattern in Fact to this one that we're looking at Right now with the altcoin market right So if you were to look at Let's say like the 50-week moving Average of of the altcoin market you can See that just like last cycle right we Or sorry just like the NASDAQ out of Crash we had sort of this double Peak rejection out the 50 week another Sort of last hurray at the 50 week and Then ultimately the NASDAQ went to go Put in new lows right so I I think the Altcoin market will continue to bleed Now any given day that doesn't mean that All all coins are putting any lows some Of them are not but even in the last Couple of weeks right we saw we saw Avalanche put in a new low we saw polka Dot put on a new low we saw Al Gran put A new low right so a lot of these Altcoins do continue to go lower of Course they're not all going to put in New lows necessarily at the same time But because there's this rotation of Capital But I think there's a good chance that We that this sort of plays out like the Sort of like like what happened with crash and and and for the you Know for people who might not be Familiar with with crash just to Just sort of put it in perspective and To sort of remind people of just how

Brutal it was this is what crash Looked like and you can kind of see a Very similar pattern right like like do You remember that sort of that double Top that we just talked about with the Altcoin market and how you know it sort Of came up to the 50 week and double Topped and then got one last move up to The 50 week before rolling over and Putting in these final lows right that's I mean that's basically what the not the What the the all coin Market looks like Today right this sort of double top at The 50 week another push to the 50 week On the news of the SEC versus Ripple Case right where everyone's like all Right you know all the fundamentals are Different now the altcoins are going to Go up Only for it to just simply be a another Lower high so I think that the the Altcoin market collectively is is Basically about to enter the the Depression phase just like the NASDAQ Into the depression phase in in 2002. Benjamin you have been very very correct On altcoins bleeding against Bitcoin Throughout the whole year Um I gotta give that to you because it's An unpopular thing to say altcoins are Going to bleed but that has happened Where does this bottom how long will This last against Bitcoin yes Yeah so there's a really cool chart

Actually that we can look at and it's Total three minus usdt divided by Bitcoin and what is total three again so Total three is basically the entire Market but you subtract out Bitcoin and Eth so you're just looking at at all Coins okay because I don't I don't Really consider ethanol Um but this is the altcoin market take Out usdt and then divide it out by Bitcoin divided by bitcoin's market cap And you know you can see there's there's Some beauty to it right the all coin Market tops out at parity with Bitcoin Right when this ratio reaches one it Tops out against Bitcoin and I think That like last cycle I think that it'll probably it could Find a low here around 25 of bitcoin's Market cap now it did go lower during Bitcoin's parabolic rally but it only Lasted a few weeks so I wouldn't put too Much weight into in sort of this move Although it could theoretically happen Again I would say that I'm still looking For the altcoin market to bleed down Against Bitcoin at this point about Another 47 by the way this is the same Level that we saw all coins rally last Cycle only to get rejected at around That same level right at the 20-week Moving average we saw the altcoin market As a percentage of bitcoin's market cap Rally up to around this level only to

Get rejected and to come you know Capitulating down by by the end of end Of 2019 uh so I I think that is is what We're looking at it could happen as Early as the end of this year okay so You know it could happen I mean it could Happen any time I mean it just depends On on when the capitulation happens I Mean you can see that once the Capitulation started over here It only lasted another month or two Right so I mean by the time that I come On your channel in the future right Whenever that is it's possible that it's Behind us okay but I I still think it's Ahead of us right now I think that the Altcoin market will likely continue to Go down against Bitcoin I know a lot of People are looking at the Bitcoin Dominance right now including stable Coins right and they're saying like it's It looks pretty bad but I would still Say it kind of just looks like it's Retesting the breakout point right of of 49 sort of a retest of the breakout Point only to ultimately go higher and And if you look at at things like the Dominance excluding stable coins it Still just looks like a pretty bullish Uptrend right just higher lows and Higher highs every step of the way so my Guess is that the earliest the altcoin Market finally bottoms out against Bitcoin is by the end of the year that's

The it could happen in Q3 right but but Sometime Over the next three to four months I I Think is is when there's at least a Reasonable chance that it can happen Let's look at eth because eth has Separated itself from the altcoin pack a Little Um it's doing much better against Bitcoin Um compared to the other old coins what Are your next price targets for eath So for The Ether Bitcoin pair I've been Bearish on it pretty vocally Um really since 2022 Um was actually at this sort of this Move here is is kind of where I switched My my thesis on it because you know the First video on my channel is actually on The ether Bitcoin pair and it was in September of 2019 and I said ether Bitcoin is very undervalued at you know At 0.017 or whatever it was at but over Here I did not I did not flip bearish on Ether Bitcoin at the top right like I Did and it took me it took me really Until about Um late q1 of 2022 to sort of say that Ether Bitcoin will likely bleed And since then it you know it dropped And then came back up sort of swept These prior highs ever since then it's Just been a slow bleed so it is true That ether Bitcoin has been holding up

Incredibly well especially compared to The altcoin market right I mean it's a Fact that it has been holding up a lot Better With that said it still is a series of Lower highs and lower lows especially Ever since the merge you know we went Into the merge and a lot of people said It was going to be a game changer for The Ether Bitcoin pair you know and they Were calling for you know sort of the Flipping and whatnot but ever since then If if the tokenomics really were going To change a whole lot why has it still Been a lower high after after another Right one lower high after another at a Lower low after another so I still think That the ether Bitcoin valuation is in a Massive distribution phase just like we Saw last cycle right so if you were to Look at at Um let's pull up monthly High kenoshi Candles I mean every single monthly High every Single monthly hikanashi candle for 2023 Has been read I mean this is January 2023 it's just been bleeding for Basically the entire year Um I still think and I think I've said This every time I've come on your Channel for a while now but I think that We're just in the sort of this Distribution phase again just like we Were over here and I do think that this

Drop by The Ether Bitcoin pair when it When it finally does capitulate down Here I think it's going to go to around 0.03 to 0.04 that might Mark the end of The altcoin racketing so like that could Be the win win all coins finally bottom Out on their Bitcoin pairs is whenever The Ether Bitcoin valuation finally Finally takes the plunge And by the way maybe a reason that eth Is holding up better than others is Because the tokenomics did change Um with the recent updates it has had Many deflationary days or way less Supply into the market compared to other Years Um so maybe we don't see those lows Because that's possible yeah I mean it's Completely possible Um I still would Point towards it's Still technically lower highs and lower Lows right I mean it it's possible that It affected how quick the the event was Going to happen right maybe it slowed it Down and maybe at the end of the day It's not as bad as as I think right There's always a chance that that has Happened but it has not changed the fact That ether Bitcoin is bleeding right it Still is bleeding from those highs and It's been a very slow and painful bleed Uh another another thing to look at by The way is The Ether dominance and I Don't think I've shown this one on your

Channel but you know you know how a lot Of people look at at Bitcoin dominance And they they say that it's lower highs Over the macro scale right like if you Were to draw this channel here you could Say that it's it's been lower eyes but It's also been higher lows right I almost wonder if ethereum dominance is Doing the same thing and it's just so Early to know yet where it's also Putting in lower highs and also Potentially putting in higher lows but If you look at the ethereum dominance It was it was read in June it was read In July it was read in August It is a concerning Trend I mean it is it Is slowly going down so I think it's Worthwhile to take note of that last Last year when it dropped by the way it Dropped really really quickly and it Went all the way down to around 14 or so I still think there's a good chance that We we see that and actually go lower Than that but I don't think ethereum Dominance is ever going to go back to Where it was in September 2019 right I Think it's like well ever is a strong Word right I don't know what's going to Happen 10 years from now but Um but I think like in the at least in This coming at least in the coming cycle You know I don't really see the ethereum Dominance going much lower than 10 Percent

Let's move on to some lower cap altcoins But fun question for you Ben if Bitcoin Hits that coveted 100K next cycle is There any chart you have they can show Us maybe a range for eth Yeah I mean I well I think you probably Just look at the ratio right I mean if If ether Bitcoin is putting in lower Highs Um I mean sort of An Inconvenient Truth But it is I mean it has been putting in Lower highs from one cycle to another I Mean this was that way back over here is It 0.15 then 0.12 then 0.08 0.09 close To 0.09 and then around 0.085 I suppose If I mean if you you maybe just multiply The ratio right if you say that Bitcoin If Bitcoin hits 100K and ether Bitcoin Goes to say 0.07 then you know you're Looking at a seven thousand dollar each Right so I mean it really just depends On On sort of the nature of the ratio Um if if you're you know if what you Mentioned earlier You know it turns out to be correct and That the the tokenomics the sort of the Deflationary aspect has if if it does Keep eat from that capitulation then Perhaps it can go to a higher a higher Ratio you know I think that there is a Chance that ether Bitcoins ratio could Theoretically take out these prior highs Over here but I think that if it does

That it still likely goes down first and Then back up so that's kind of where I Did so I would I would just look at The Ether Bitcoin ratio multiply that by The price of Bitcoin USD at the peak and And just say you know pick out your most Optimistic ether Bitcoin ratio and then And then figure out what the price of Ether would be We had strong uh Community feedback People in our last video commenting down Below I want you to talk about xrp I Want you to talk about binance uh BNB Token could we look at some of those Charts Yeah so if you look at xrp Bitcoin Um and again it's always worth a while To try to remain objective about this Stuff you know xrp's Bitcoin valuation Seems to mostly be an oscillator right Like it hasn't it hasn't really gone Well above these prior highs it hasn't Really taken out these prior lows it Seems to oscillate within a fairly Well-defined range at least that's what We've seen so far Um so until proven otherwise I would Probably just assume that it will remain An oscillator that doesn't mean that it Will always be one but that is what I Would generally expect the thing to look For is when when an altcoin is putting In higher lows or holding its lows on Its Bitcoin pair

In a Bitcoin USD downtrend then that Tends to bode well for that altcoin in a Future Bitcoin bull run right so like Think about last cycle we saw link Bitcoin putting in higher lows in you Know in 2019 and then it did really Really well in 2020. even though link USD took a big hit when when we had that Recession in March of 2020 it was Putting in those higher lows so I'm Still looking at at sort of this xrp Bitcoin valuation can it hold these These higher lows here or does it Capitulate down if you look by the way At xrp USD one of the things you might Note and I was I was actually talking About this earlier today on a different Stream Is that and again I mean it depends on It maybe I should switch this over to a Sort of a regular scale here but when You look at it you know it was sort of Trying to hold these lows over here in 2019 as well on its USD pair and then It Ultimately It ultimately capitulated Down right so it was holding these lows Holding these lows and then in Q3 of the Prehabbing year Um so in in August September you can see That xrp USD sort of capitulated down And then it kept going back up to this Prior level and and kept holding it as Resistance so in the short term I would Say because Bitcoin is is I think

Bearish right now I think we're likely Going to look at xrp fading back to 40 Cents At the very least is my guess at the Very least and if it if it can hold that Level Then that's you know that's at least Somewhat optimistic if it can't hold That level then I think you're you're Probably looking at another 30 to 40 Drop below that so in the short term on The on his USD pair I still embarrass on On it because it's an altcoin and I just Think that all coins are going to get Hit pretty hard especially going into The end of the year on its Bitcoin pair It is more optimistic but I don't think That will be reflected on its USD pair Until sometime in late 2024. does the Positive uh uh legal regulatory news That xrp had does that change your Outlook at all because xrp is in a Slightly different place than it was all Those years prior I mean it makes me more bullish on the Altcoin market over the long haul you Know I mean I think a lot of people Mistake me for a Bitcoin Maxi just Because I've been embarrassed on the Altcoin market for like the last 20 Months but it's more like hey guys I got Wrecked last cycle quite badly because I Thought that the altcoin market was Going to go up and and it and it just

Kept going down and it kept putting in New lows even even in the having year a Lot of these all coins put a new list I Mean look at xrp right in 2019 it was Putting in new lows in 2020 it was Putting in new lows and this is well After after Bitcoin bottomed Bitcoin Bottomed in December of 2018. and xrp Was continuing to put a new lows so I Mean I would say that it's definitely a Win for crypto that that that that Ripple won right I think it's certainly A win for crypto but as I said you know I made a video on the day that it came Out in all through rallying and I said Back then guys the narratives don't Really mean a whole lot because they can They can lead to price movement in a day Right I mean it can lead to A rally or a dump in a single day Depending on the news but it all comes Back to liquidity and at the end of the Day right it was it was a very Polish Thing that Ripple won but we've also we Also saw xrp completely retrace the Entirety of those gains so in that sense It should show people that all coins are More so a function of excess liquidity Than they are of whatever the most Prevailing narrative is at the time I Think those narratives are important and They'll play a role but they're only Going to play a role once the liquidity Comes back and that's only going to

Happen on the other side of a Fed pivot And very quickly BNB token next price Targets Yeah so BNB Bitcoin is is an interesting One because it's you know it's been Slowly going down and by the way this is One that is can also impact the Dominance of Bitcoin a lot because the BNB market cap is is relative it's Higher than than you know a lot of the Altcoins Um to me this just looks like you know Sort of the the prior Trends right where It just sort of slowly Trends up before Finding the next breakdown point the Careful you know that you have to be Careful with these things because Eventually that Trend will break just Like it did with Bitcoin USD uh in in Prior Cycles but Intel proven otherwise I guess I just assumed that it Ultimately will sort of break to the Downside if you look at BNB Bitcoin last Cycle you can you can kind of see that The sort of these lows that it had in in Sort of the bear Market year it did Eventually go below that um it took Until you know the having year or even The post having year to do it but I Think you're likely going to at the very Least see something similar or BNB Bitcoin You know goes below 7 000 satoshi's Um I don't I'm not saying that it's

Gonna go all the way back down here but I think there is a case to me that Eventually it will roll over and and Sort of take out the prior low from from October 2021 and probably take out this Low from from June of 2020. and if you Look at and by the way I mean BNB Bitcoin has just been putting in I mean It's been fading a lot really ever since The end of 2022. if you look at BNB USD I mean it just sort of looks like it's Wanting to potentially go retest at the Very least this this prior Wick over Here right like we're on 180 Um and and maybe that'll hold if it if By the way if this does not hold if if These prior lows do not hold Then there's not really a whole lot of Support you know I mean I think a lot of People forget just how quickly a lot of These all coins moved up and they can Also move down quickly as well right so Like if if this does not hold at like 180 then all of a sudden there's like Not a whole lot of support for for a Long time and this move here by the way If you think about this if it retraces Even half of that move that's how you See the Bitcoin dominance go up a lot Right I'm not saying that dominance has To go to 75 or 72 percent like it was Last cycle but that's how you get to 60 Dominance as you look at these all coins And they take out these prior support

Levels that a lot of people think they Can't break I think it probably will Break it eventually I think it'll likely Break below it into a recession And then the FED will print and then Maybe and then maybe they'll go back up But that's where I currently stand on BNB If you had if if you had to buy altcoins Today three not eth Um if we were at a bottom what what all Coins would be interested in what makes You tick Benjamin so I think you just Look at their Bitcoin pairs I mean it's All about their it's do they hold their Lows in a Bitcoin USD downtrend right so You look at if you were to go look at Like Ada Bitcoin or Solana Bitcoin or Polka dot or Avalanche whatever you just Look at their Bitcoin Pairs and you know Just sort of go through a few of them Right like look at look at dot Bitcoin Is it holding its lows on its Bitcoin Pair has it at all really since since May of 2021 it hasn't I mean every every Every time people think it maybe has you Just give it a few more months and it Goes lower so if if if these sorts of Tokens right like if if dot Bitcoin Can hold these lows then it becomes Interesting in a Bitcoin USD entrance Like imagine Bitcoin sort of phase back To 20K or 18K or something like that if If dot Bitcoin can hold these lows then

That becomes sort of a bullish sign that Once Bitcoin turns back up that altcoin Will will explode back up to the upside If on the other hand we just wait a Couple more months and this keeps going Down then it's just simply not there Right look at sold Bitcoin you know it's Been trying to hold these lows here at Around four to five thousand SATs and it Held it here I mean it put it in in December 2022 and then retested it in June of 2023 if it comes back down and And test it again and it's just a wick Now at four to five thousand SATs in a Bitcoin USD downtrend and that's Probably a bullish sign right so it all Comes back to does it hold its low in a Bitcoin USD downtrend and a lot of these We just haven't had enough time to know If they're going to or not like Ada Bitcoin Will 800 stops hold Um I have my doubts like I really do Have my doubts that it'll hold I think It's more likely to hold it like 400 Stats so I I mean I'm not gonna go out You know I'm not I'm not going out today To buy all coins because I I still think They are are very risky and I will say That if they have bottomed on their Bitcoin pairs which Still Remains to be Proven they're still likely to go down On their USD pairs even Ada Bitcoin if You remember it bottomed here on his

Bitcoin pair in August of 2019 But it kept going lower on his USD pair Until March of 2020 right it still kept Going lower because Bitcoin was in a Downtrend on its USD pair so I think That's what you look for and it doesn't Matter like it doesn't you know you Don't marry a single law coin it doesn't Matter you know necessarily what the Ticker is it doesn't hold its low on its Bitcoin pair or not and if it does then That bodes well for the next cycle and If it doesn't then it says it's likely Going to be a relic of a prior cycle and No one's going to care about it next Cycle Love that perspective Benjamin thank you For joining me I want to have you back In one two three couple months we're Going to revisit these charts but final Thoughts for the altcoin daily community Yeah final thoughts I would say is you Know what I what I tend to say with the Altcoin market is that you know they They tend to bleed further than everyone Thinks in the you know in the bear Market year in the prehabbing year but They also tend to come back aggressively Sort of the middle the middle part of The having year in the post having year So just remember that where we are right Now is actually more or less identical To where we were four years ago and and What we saw back then was a continued

Bleed until the end of the year and then A rally into a recession we could see The same exact thing so just remember When if and when a recession comes That's when the FED will likely print And when the FED prints that's when Liquidity returns and that's when the All coin Market starts to do well again Foreign


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