Crypto News: CFTC vs. Binance, ETH Upgrade, AI Bans & More!

Foreign To the coin Bureau Weekly News Roundup Here are the top stories in crypto this Week Crypto Market pop BTC eth and most Altcoins jump after inflation figures Come in lower than expected what's next For the crypto Market Cftc vs binance U.S Regulators take aim At the world's largest cryptocurrency Exchange calling its U.S operations into Question why there's no cause for Concern just yet Ethereum upgrade imminent developers Prepare for eth unstaking in the face of Regulatory uncertainty everything you Need to know AI under attack Italy bans Chat GPT after Elon Musk and thousands Of tech Executives call on governments To pause AI development how could this Impact the crypto Market And we journey deep into the cryptoverse With the Peerless Mr Benjamin Cowan as Our guide all this and More in just a Moment Good morning afternoon or evening thank You for tuning in my name is Guy nothing You're about to hear is financial advice And here is the news Last week the crypto Market posted some Modest gains after the personal Consumption expenditures index or pce For February came in slightly lower than Expected for context the pce is the

Fed's favorite inflation gauge A lower than expected reading could Increase the chances that the FED will Pause or pivot And yet another driver behind last Week's price action was yet another Short squeeze from traders who had been Aggressively betting that the crypto Market would see a correction after Weeks of rallying so far the crypto Market has continued to surprise to the Upside but prices are starting to move More sideways now this is interesting Because it's the same kind of price Action we saw the weekend after Silvergate banks exchange Network or sen Was shut down if you watched our video About silvergate you'll know that the Sen was basically used by institutional Investors to move money in and out of The crypto Market 24 7. it seems that The shutdown of the sen and the Subsequent shutdown of signature bank's Signet has significantly restricted the Ability for institutional investors in The United States to get direct exposure To the crypto Market the all-time highs On traditional Futures exchanges like The CME is evidence of this as reported By Reuters the inability for Institutional investors to access the Crypto Market directly has resulted in Surprisingly poor liquidity and less Market depth in plain English it's

Becoming easier to push the prices of Cryptocurrencies up or down with less Money this means more volatility it Could also mean that we're going to Continue to see strange price action Outside of regular trading hours in the United States namely on the weekends now The Practical effect of this is that it Will become more difficult to use Technical analysis because there will be Less price action that can be analyzed Even so ta could still will work on Longer time frames where the price Action is more apparent as you can see BTC completed a bull flag in March Short-term indicators suggest BTC is Losing momentum but this could be Because of the lack of liquidity and Depth still it's been enough to cause Traders to go short What's harder to explain is eth's Apparent weakness against BTC March was The first time eth closed beneath the Bollinger band moving average against BTC since early 2020. note how this Moving average served as support during The bull market This could foreshadow further lows for Eth and alts now technical analysis Aside what BTC and eth do in April Ultimately depends on all the upcoming Macro and crypto factors there won't be A Fed meeting this month so macro could Finally take a back seat to crypto when

It comes to price action the problem is That the crypto factors are looking Worse by the week If you watched yesterday's video about The Biden administration's Crackdown on Crypto you'll know it began in January This year you'll also know the Crackdown Seems to have escalated after the White House published its economic report Which included a lengthy section about Why crypto is bad That's because the SEC issued a Wells Notice to coinbase less than 48 hours After the economic report was published For reference a Wells notice gives Coinbase 30 days to explain why it Shouldn't be sued Unfortunately the SEC sues in 80 percent Of cases where a Wells notice is issued Regardless of the response if you've Been keeping up with the channel you'll Know I've constantly been reminding you All that the SEC issued a Wells notice To paxos over its issuance of busd in Mid-February it's been more than 30 Regular days and more than 30 business Days which is why I expected an actual Lawsuit to come soon what I did not Expect however was that the cftc would Come out of the left field to Sue Binance and its CEO Chang Peng Xiao just A few days after the SEC sued coinbase Presumably as a part of the crypto Crackdown's escalation the cftc is

Alleging that binance and CZ broke U.S Trading rules what's concerning is that The lawsuit includes internal Discussions at binance which suggests That the exchange and its top Executives Were aware that they were in Contravention of said rule as with all Stories however there are two sides and Both binance and CZ alleged that the Lawsuit contains incomplete information Regardless the accusations alone have Been enough to cause trouble for Binance's U.S operations specifically Binance us For starters the cftc lawsuit has Reportedly resulted in the pause of Binance Us's acquisition of assets Belonging to Voyager digital a crypto Platform which went bankrupt last year Binance us also suddenly paused certain USD services and delisted busd Stablecoin trading pairs note that Second development may not necessarily Be related to the cftc suit it could Very well be related to the sec's Pending lawsuit against paxos and the Fact that coinbase also recently Delisted busd In any case the real binance us Bombshell was the resurfacing of Catherine Coley the former CEO of Binance us who appears to be working With the cftc if you're subscribed to My Weekly Newsletter you'll know that

Catherine had essentially gone missing In 2021 and it's not clear what she's up To now the good news is that binance is Unlikely to be affected here that's Because binance itself is not based in The United States in a worst case Scenario binance us could be forced to Shut down as part of binance's Settlement with the SEC something that's Been reported as being a very real Possibility The bad news is that the lawsuit could Result in more regulatory scrutiny of Binance Elsewhere around the world Particularly in countries closely allied With the United States however as we've Seen with Hong Kong there are an equal Number of countries that are looking to Open their doors to the crypto industry So it's not all bad What is a big deal though is ethereum's Upcoming Shanghai upgrade to quickly Recap Shanghai will make it possible for Ethereum validators to unstake their eth And any accrued staking rewards ethereum Developers recently finalized the 12th Of April date for the upgrade so be sure To mark your calendars Now besides the potential effects that Shanghai could have on eth's price the Upgrade is important because it could Have an impact on cryptocurrency Regulations in the United States and Elsewhere for those unfamiliar the SEC

Thinks that every crypto except BTC is a Security not only that but SEC chairman Gary Gensler has repeatedly stated that Proof-of-stake cryptocurrencies could be Securities in need of strict regulation Although ethereum switched to proof of Stake last September eth is still Technically a proof of work asset this Will change when eth unstaking is Allowed given that former SEC director Bill Hinman said eth was not a security When it was still in its proof of work Form it's possible that the sec's Interpretation of eth will change after The Shanghai upgrade now whether the SEC Would go after ethereum is another Question entirely and I think it's very Unlikely Still it's a big enough risk that some Ethereum Protocols are taking Precautionary measures One example is liquid staking protocol Lido Finance which happens to be staking Almost a third of all staked eth Lido Recently announced that it will be Releasing nfts which represent eth Unstaking requests now this is a very Small but extremely significant detail Because nfts have somehow not been Subject to nearly the same degree of Scrutiny as other crypto categories Including from the SEC in fact the SEC Recently signed off on a crypto project Called Freeport which fractionalizes

Works of art into nfts Lido finance's Use of nfts in the Ethan staking process Could therefore protect the protocol From regulatory scrutiny by the SEC come To think of it this could also be why Uni swap wasn't targeted by the SEC While Sushi swap was despite both being Dex's all liquidity positions on uni Swap V3 are nfts now this begs the Question of whether other liquid staking Protocols and even cryptocurrency Exchanges could start to follow suit to Protect themselves from similar SEC Scrutiny I would hope that the answer is Yes but something tells me that the SEC Will still find a way to go after the Ones it doesn't like so this begs the Question of which crypto companies and Protocols the SEC doesn't like and You'll already know the answer if you Watched our video about signature Banks Takedown The SEC and other U.S Regulators don't Like any crypto projects or companies That compete with the fednow payment System while smart contract Cryptocurrencies like ethereum may not Be seen as competitors to Fed now stable Coins certainly are this is why U.S Regulators are actively targeting Stablecoin issuers and why a Crackdown Is quite likely unfortunately this Crackdown may do serious indirect damage To eth

However this all assumes that U.S Regulators are still preoccupied with Cracking down on cryptocurrency which May no longer be the case AI is quickly becoming a much larger Threat to government interests and it's Gotten to the point where even open AI CEO Sam Altman is concerned if you Watched our video about open AI you'll Know that it's the company that created Chat gbt the famous AI chatbot which Recently entered its fourth iteration This fourth iteration is exponentially More powerful than the third and the Fifth iteration expected later this year Could seriously disrupt Society It's safe to say that Italy isn't taking Any chances it recently became the first Country to ban chat GPT citing a breach Of data privacy rules for those who Don't know the eu's data privacy rules Are pretty strict this means that we Could soon see other European countries Ban chat GPT for the same reason Obviously privacy concerns pale in Comparison to the other concerns with Chat GPT the biggest concern relates to Cyber security chat gbt could be used to Hack into critical systems or even Develop ransomware technology it could Also be used to develop convincing deep Fakes on social media these are just a Few of the reasons why Elon Musk and Over 2600 other Tech executives are

Calling on governments to put a pause on AI development The open letter published by the future Of Life Institute explicitly states that The development of AI more powerful than Chat gpt4 should stop for six months it Doesn't take an AI expert to understand That this request comes with its own set Of concerns notably that some countries And companies may continue to secretly Develop more powerful AI despite the Pause this could result in shall we say Less Savory countries and companies Becoming Unstoppable AI leaders at the Same time there could be incentives for Governments to allow AI to continue Evolving with no regulations in theory Flooding the internet with deep fakes is A bad thing because it leads to genuine Disinformation in practice it could be a Good thing from a government's Perspective because it justifies forcing Everyone to use kyc online at that point It becomes possible for governments to Control what everyone does and says Online now this is an ability that many Governments crave especially those where Trust in institutions is low after all The system exists to protect itself and The elites will do whatever it takes to Ensure that it stays intact This is where cryptocurrency comes into The picture and I foresee one of two Scenarios if other countries start to

Follow Italy's lead in Banning AI then This will tentatively take the wind out Of the sales of the AI driven Tech rally That we've seen over the last few weeks This will likely cause a crypto crash if Italy is an outlier then you can expect To see a rise in deep fakes on social Media over the next few months you can Also expect to see the number of deep Fakes go parabolic before the 2024 Election in the United States And of course you can expect to see kyc Requirements to use social media not Just in the USA Now believe it or not but this second Outcome could be bullish for Cryptocurrency that's simply because Blockchains are immutable publicly Viewable ledgers containing transactions Of immutable digital Assets in other Words cryptocurrency is the best way to Protect the internet from AI driven deep Fakes this means nfts could finally have An actual use case besides sidestepping Outdated Securities regulations in the United States but I'll believe it when I See it Let's hope it doesn't get to that So with all that said let's now turn to Ben Cowan's amazing analysis of the Crypto Market Hey guys thanks for having me pleasure To be here as always I thought today we Would check in on the total

Cryptocurrency market capitalization Within the context of the fair value Logger in the congression trend line so The logarithmic aggression trend line is This red line here which is fit to all Prior data of the cryptocurrency market Cap and the purpose of this chart is to Show the ebb and flow from periods of Undervaluation to overvaluation and so We essentially just go back and forth Back and forth and that's the ebb and Flow of the market cycle Now history Would show us based on what we saw in You know in 2018 2019 and 2020 and then In 2015 2016 and also in in 2012 history Would show us that we have a habit of Spending quite some time in these Undervaluation levels before seeing a Sustained push into a bull market that Can lead us above the fair value Regression trend line for more than just Say a month or two like 2019. what we'll Notice is that in in 2015 we essentially Went sideways until we hit it and in 2020 we kind of went down until we hit It and that ultimate level was that Lower green regression trend line which More or less represents an Undervaluation of 65 percent which is Somewhat different from where we Currently are at about 42 percent Undervalued about a way to visualize That I think is to take the percent Difference of the market cap and the

Fair value log in the congression trend Line and when you do that you get Something looks like this and we'll Notice that this period of or this phase Of 65 undervaluation has only occurred a Few times in crypto's history occurred In March of 2020 that occurred in in September of 2015 and it also occurred In September 2010 note that the bear Market that was in 2012 did not reach That deep valuation of about 65 Undervalued before really going into Another sustainable Market into the Overvaluation regime that lasted for Morgan then just a few months but we'll Also know notice That history shows us like 2015 that we Went sideways until we hit it 2020 shows Us that we went down until we hit it and So the argument is that well uh if we go Sideways until we hit it it could take Until sometime in early 2024 of course If you go down and hit it then it could Of course occur a lot sooner than that But it's interesting how oftentimes We'll find ourselves you know hitting This deep valuation territory sometime Before the next having so again either Sideways into it or down into it and Then history shows us that's what's That's what really kick-starts a a more Sustained move by the entire asset class Back to the over evaluation territory it Also shows us that in general uh you

Know 2015 that wasn't you know was sort Of a recovery year and a great a great Year to get into the market and so was 2019 and 2020 just like you know 2011 2012. so while you know while there's Always a chance of course that we could Push lower into the green regression ban Or go sideways until we hit it the Argument of course is that history will Likely remember this as a as a general Recovery year for the cryptocurrency Asset class and it's it's more or less Just taking on a very cyclical Behavior Like we've seen In Prior in Prior Market Cycles another Way to visualize this I think is to Overlay uh this summary risk indicator That or sorry the total the total market Cap risk indicator Um a couple different risk indicators That we could look at but if you look at Total market cap risk indicator this is What it looks like so we go from periods Of low risk to high risk and if we Overlay it just for Bitcoin that Accounts for on-chain data and social Statistics and in price Price statistics We really see that ebb and flow of the Cycle from Deep value to overvalue deep Value over Deep Over value and so on and So forth right so the whole idea is that Is that the period the the year before The having year tends to be a recovery Year it doesn't mean we can't go up it

Doesn't mean we can't go down but it Just means there's going to be quite a Lot of chop and um and we should more or Less be expecting that for the duration Of this year so I'm sort of continuing To think of this year as as just a year Where the market Will continue to stay undervalued Um and and perhaps by 2024 we can see a More sustained push uh 2024 2025 a more Sustained push above the fair value Logarithmic regression trend line just Like we saw you know in in 2020 and 2021 And just like we saw in 2017 and in 2013 As well but again thanks for having me It's always a pleasure to be here and I Look forward again seeing you next week Thank you Ben Ben and I will be doing Our weekly live stream on Thursday with Rob from digital asset news hosting us On his channel so join two of the finest Minds on crypto YouTube and yours truly From 9am Eastern Time 5 p.m golf time And this year's coin Bureau Live event Will be taking place in London on the 10th of June it's going to be a great Day and there are still a few tickets Available but they're going fast so link Below to secure yours now I can't wait to see you there and that Is all for today's coin Bureau weekly Crypto review if you enjoyed it you know What to do hit the like button subscribe Button and Bell icon too if you're

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