CRYPTO Market Predictions! This Report Tells What Happens NEXT!!

If you're looking for an edge in the Crypto Market you need to follow the Whales and when it comes to whale Watching one of the companies that has The most Insight is bitfinex not only is The exchange absolutely swimming with Whales but it's also the sister company Of tether the most influential company In crypto so when we saw that bitfinex Had published a report containing an In-depth analysis of the crypto Market We knew we had to find out what it said Today we're going to summarize this Report and tell you what it could mean For Crypto the report we'll be summarizing Today is titled quote constrained Bitcoin Supply and options pricing are Hinting at more volatility to come it's One of many weekly bitfinex Alpha Reports that the exchange has published But there's a reason why we picked this One specifically that's because it was Published in the first week of October The week before the crypto Market Market Dipped in other words the prediction Made in the title of the report seems to Have come true and a report called quote Bitcoin flows to long-term holders as Volatility jumps was published the Following week we'll leave links to both Reports in the Description now this particular report Begins with a lengthy disclaimer which

States quote this newsletter contains Forward-looking statements statements That relate to future events or future Performance Which are only projections opinions and Hypotheticals about possible future Events conditions outcomes and results Actual events or results May differ Materially quite funny considering what I just Mentioned anyways the first part of the Report looks at what's been happening on Chain with Bitcoin the reports authors Found that the supply of BTC reserves on Exchanges hit its lowest level in over 5 Years it's not clear whether this means The total BTC on exchanges or just the BTC held in cold wallets or cold storage On that note if you're looking to get a Hardware wallet and want a huge discount Check out the deals page in the Description in any case the decline in BTC on exchanges means two things first It means that most BTC holders are Hodling I.E not selling though there was A bit of selling during the crash in Early 2022 second it means that btc's price is Likely to be more volatile since there's Less Market depth on exchanges in plain English less BTC on exchanges means it's Easier to push the price up or down Oddly enough the authors explain it as Quote a smaller pool of participants is

Wielding a more significant sway over Bitcoin's price and they warn that this Means traditional crypto market analysis May not work probably nothing any anyhow The authors also examined another Indicator called coind days destroyed if You watched our video about glass node And Arc invests new way of analyzing Bitcoin on chain you'll know all about These exotic indicators and how they can Be made more accurate by adjusting how They're measured as explained by the Authors of this report quote coin days Destroyed CDD is a crucial metric for Bitcoin Supply analysis here's how it Works for any given movement of coins on The blockchain multiply the number of Coins by the days since they last moved The result is what you see here and I'll Note that the authors used a 30-day Moving average for this indicator as you Can hopefully see the number of coin Days destroyed spikes around BTC tops And bottoms be they local or Market Cycle this basically tells you that the Bitcoin whales are waking up note that We'll leave a link to that indicator in The Des description it's completely free Now the authors then zoom in on an Abnormal onchain finding and that's that While short-term holders seem to be Holding medium-term holders seem to be Selling for context short-term is any Wallet that's held BTC for 6 to 12

Months and medium-term is any wallet That's held BTC for 12 to 18 months Logically the authors speculate that Medium-term holders are taking profits Now this is strange considering the Average price of BTC held over the Medium term is almost exactly what it is Now it's also strange that the authors Say this is normal behavior in early Bull markets regardless they then pivot To comparing btc's price action to that Of the S&P 500 Index they estimate that The S&P is close to finding its local Bottom they note that this is Significant because risk assets like BTC Tend to Rally as soon as stock market Indices like the SNP find their bottoms There are just two problems with that Analysis the first is that BTC hasn't Been very correlated to the stock market Recently the second is that the exact Opposite seems to have happened last Week the s&p500 rallied from the local Bottom which bitfinex predicted but BTC Didn't Pump It dumped this ties into Another questionable analysis and that's The so-called recber and up October Phenomena for reference BTC has Historically done poorly in September But well in October hence the names the Thing is that this data is heavily Skewed by outlier months in Bull markets And bare markets for example if you Remove the Octobers that occurred during

Bull markets btc's returns for October Are sideways to down which is what we've Mostly seen so far at least at the time Of shooting but of course the authors Conclude that btc's price should should Go up in October like many of us have Maybe it still will who knows anywh who To their credit the authors seem to have The right idea when it comes to Analyzing Market sector rotations first The market for US Government debt aka The bond market rallies then the stock Market rallies and then the crypto Market rallies the thing is that the Bond market hasn't rallied yet not only That but a bond market rally typically Corresponds to a flight to safety Meaning that investors are selling Assets like stocks and crypto for US Dollars and bonds as such you could say That the best time to accumulate stocks And cryptos is during bond market Rallies not Financial advice obviously Now the last two indicators the authors Look at in this section are volatility And the take by sell ratio the tldr is That btc's volatility indicators suggest That it could Spike up or or down while The take by sell ratio suggests that Retail investors are starting to rotate Out of BTC and into altcoins this is Another analysis that's been invalidated By recent events Bitcoin dominance hit a Three-month High last week this is not

Surprising given that Bitcoin dominance Tends to rise in the months leading up To the Bitcoin Haring in retrospect the Take by sell ratio could have been Insiders taking profits on alts in the Second part of the report the authors Provide a General market update they Start by pointing out that consumer Confidence continues to be on a Long-term decline this is significant Because most economic growth in the US Is driven by consumption less Consumption means less economic growth The authors also point out that the FED Intends on doing one more rate hike and Keeping rates High into 2024 if you Watched our video about the fed's last Press conference you'll know that Chairman Jerome Powell appears to be Very concerned about a recession this Could change the fed's interest rate Plans that said the authors then Highlight the fact that consumers Apparently do not plan on reducing their Consumption despite the declining Confidence they're also not planning on Buying houses anytime soon this makes Sense considering that mortgage rates Are at multi-decade highs what's Fascinating is that many people who Recently purchased homes have decided to Lock in their current mortgage rates This presumably implies that they Believe interest rates will rise even

Higher than they already are this is an Outcome that the authors also foresee Due to housing driven inflation if you Watched our video about the housing Market from last year however you'll Know that the thing that drives housing Prices is ultimately the demand for Short-term and long-term rents depending On the location there could be a decline In both which will inevitably result in Lower housing prices moreover housing Prices often fall the most during a Recession which could still be coming Not surprisingly one of the only Economic sectors that's continued to Boom over the last few months has been The defense sector this is due to the Unprecedented military support for Ukraine and what's likely to be a Similar amount of military support for Israel however the authors noticed an Uptick in orders for Goods in general Even when you strip out those related to Defense now this could be explained by The fact that there was initially an Overs supply of goods because of Pandemic restrictions a return to Regularly scheduled manufacturing could Be the reason the authors predict that High interest rates will eventually Bring manufacturing back down except for Defense related manufacturing if you Watched our video about the man who Predicted everything however you'll know

Manufacturing could continue to run hot Due to all the fiscal spending you know It's telling that bitfinex is analyzing All of this it seems that everyone is a Macro analyst these days in all Seriousness the authors also looked at US GDP which was recently revised down But remains strong at over 2% per year The next GDP figure will be released on The 26th of October if it comes in Higher than expected the FED May commit To staying higher for longer and deliver One more rate hike at its next meeting What's bizarre is that the authors claim That economic growth will come down as High interest rates start to affect the Economy particularly the housing market This seems to contradict their earlier Claim that the housing market will Continue to be a source of inflation That housing prices will stay high based On our admittedly amateur understanding Of the US housing market it's one of the Markets least likely to see a downturn Due to higher interest rates that's Simply because most us homeowners have Locked in a fixed interest rate for 30 Years 70% to be exact another 10% have Locked in for 15 years specifics aside The authors note that the combination of Declining inflation and strong economic Growth is increasing expectations of a Soft Landing AKA no recession because of High interest rates if history is any

Indication however it's not a question Of if but when we'll see a recession the Authors of this report seem to agree and Conclude with a sobering Insight quote Potential challenges in the year's Concluding months include the ongoing United Auto Workers strike resumption of Student loan repayments heightened Energy costs and persistently High Interest rates you can add a potential Regional conflict in the Middle East to That list more about that in the Description now in the final part of the Report the authors go over a few key Crypto headlines which you've probably Heard by now recall that this report was Published in the first week of October Even so the selection of headlines is Eye openening the first one is about Tera co-founder do Quan for those Unfamiliar tether's former CTO and new CEO Paulo Arduino who also happens to be The CTO of bitfinex was critical of Tera's us stablecoin and referred to Tera's decision to back us with BTC as a Quote recipe for disaster now this Criticism was expected given that us was A competitor to centralized stablecoins Like tether's usdt ironically though Tether has since revealed that its usdt Stable coin is partially backed by BTC And is also committed to using a portion Of its monthly profits to buy BTC to Hold as additional reserves the fact

That a story about dquan is the first in This bitfinex report is therefore Peculiar given these circumstances it's A similar situation with the second Story in bitfinex's report which is About a fraudulent crypto company called Icom Tech which promised investors Abnormally High returns from crypto Trading and Mining as expected neither Of these Ventures existed and the money Was being spent elsewhere now two things Stand out about this story the first is That Icom Tech was shut down way back in 2019 the only reason it was in the news Recently was because its founder finally Pleaded guilty the second is that tether Has launched multiple initiatives Related to Bitcoin mining over the last Year the mention of this story could Therefore be a consequence of tether's Interest in the Bitcoin mining industry I'll remind you that tether is Bitfinex's sister company though the ex Exact relationship between them isn't Entirely clear never mind the fact that They have overlapping employees like Poo anyway speculation aside the third Story in bitfinex's report is even more Peculiar it's about the sec's potential Approval of ethereum Futures ETFs which Subsequently launched just recently this Is peculiar because bitfinex and tether Appear to be focused on bitcoin not Ethereum to be fair they mention the

Bitcoin ETFs a lot still it's surprising That they included this story from our Perspective it's possible that this has To do with the asset managers involved Namely Valkyrie as reported by coindesk Valkyrie's largest client was and still Could be Tron founder Justin Sun News Flash most of the usdt in circulation Exists on Tron probably just a Coincidence now the the final Story the Bitfinex report unpacked might be the Most peculiar of the four that's because It talks about how Taiwan is introducing Stricter crypto regulations this is a Reference to the decision to ban Unregistered crypto exchanges from Operating in the country which makes Sense the authors also cite another Headline about how the Taiwanese crypto Industry is effectively fighting back by Forming what is essentially a group that Will Lobby for crypto interests this Lobby group presumably hopes to change The regulations for unregistered Exchanges before they pass in November Now this is peculiar because te and Bitfinex are believed to be Headquartered in Hong Kong which is Technically part of China Tron itself Hails from China and in case you forgot Hosts most of the usdt in circulation And as all of you will know the CCP Believes that Taiwan is part of China China as well given these facts it's

Possible that the author's choice to Select this story is related to the Allegiances of tether bitfinex and Tron Their largest crypto partner even if This isn't the case it clearly pertains To tether most crypto exchanges use Usdt cracking down on exchanges hurts Tether's bottom line so this brings us To the big question and that's what all Of this means for the crypto Market well For starters it underscores the fact That indicators can and often do tell You when volatility is about to strike But the direction is almost always a Tossup in this case bitfinex forecasted A pump and we saw a dump instead at the Same time it underscores the fact that We seem to be entering a very volatile Period not just in crypto but also in Macro some of these factors are Relatively predictable like the fed's Rate hikes others are not so predictable Such as a war breaking out in the Middle East it's these unpredictable factors That make it impossible to know with 100% certainty where any Market is Headed next the crypto Market is no Exception and some would say that it's Even worse as a relatively new asset Class it's extremely volatile and the Ways of analyzing it are pretty new as Well the perfect example here is onchain Analysis which is as promising as it is Imperfect now the silver aligning to

This is that it seems to be sufficient To get a sense of what's going on with Large cryptos such as BTC the fact that The bitfinex report started at the Onchain level should be assigned to use These indicators more often the fact of The matter is that when there is less BTC on exchanges then btc's price is More volatile when you realize that the Balance of BTC on exchanges is in a Strong downtrend it begs the question of How the Bitcoin Market will ever be Liquid enough for large institutional Investors to get involved as experienced Macro investor Ral pal pointed out in a Recent interview with my colleague Jessica one of the main reasons why Institutions are sitting on the Sidelines in crypto is because of a lack Of liquidity the exit of large market Makers and the scrutiny of crypto Exchanges has increased that drain in Recent months in case you haven't Noticed the scrutiny of crypto exchanges Continues in most countries countes Notably the US the fact that the US Economy itself seems to be slowly but Surely sliding into Ray recession Suggests that there won't be many market Makers exchanges or investors running to Fill up crypto's liquidity pool speaking Of which it's possible that the macro Level volatility we're starting to Experience due to things like

Geopolitics could cause the crypto Markets to puke in the not so distant Future the prospect of a double bottom Seems plaus aible given that we saw a Double top in the previous cycle a Capitulation among long-term Bitcoin Holders is also probably something that Black rock and Co would like to see or Even need to see before a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved at the end of the day That BTC needs to come from somewhere be It the offshore exchanges or the Hardcore BTC hodlers chances are that It's going to be a combination of both And it's going to be interesting to see Where entities like bitfinex and tether End up once the dust settles for all Their faults these companies have played A key role in growing the crypto Industry to the size it is today whether They will continue to play a key role Going forward remains to be seen if they Don't then that guarantees that a Shakeup of some kind will have to occur And that will likely be bad for crypto Prices if they do then it's possible That crypto won't check the regulatory Boxes it needs to keep growing but hey Who knows maybe there's a happy medium Out there somewhere let's just hope they Find It and that's all for today's video Folks if you found it informative smash That like button to let us know if you

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