Crypto Bull Market Phase 2: What to Expect

The Crypt bull market is about to enter Its second most explosive phase According to data from onchain analysis So we're at the the transition Point Into the Euphoria phase price will rise Until Supply comes back on the market to Satisfy it what can blockchain data tell Us about bitcoin's Next Movement what Should we expect for the second and Final Phase of the bull market and how Can we recognize its peak we asked James Cck the lead onchain Analyst at glass Note to answer this and more Questions everybody is wondering where Is the market going next are we going to See a further Consolidation or we're going to see a Resuming of this uh impressive bull Market towards new alltime highs so is There anything that onchain analysis can Tell us about this it's only been about A 15 16% correction and if you can Believe it we've only had a 20% Correction since the FTX loans right in November 2022 so in all that time we've Only pulled back by 20% now if you Compare that to previous uh bull market Uptrends if you look at 2016 or 17 we Had very regular 25 30% correction so You know on the order of double where we Are at the moment if you go back and Look at 2019 it was a bit of a funny Cycle back then but 2019 we got 50 60% Plus Corrections so really really deep

Pullbacks um so thus far it's actually Been remarkably resilient right the Market just seems to it seems to find Support very quickly and uh this is Obviously a good sign now there's a lot Of components here we've got the uh you Know we've got the ETFs which I mean Personally for me they're probably about 10 times bigger than I had anticipated Right we're talking about hundred Million days relative to uh to tens of Millions um now that said these things I Mean markets and ETF flows and all this Stuff nothing happens in a straight line So naturally we were going to always hit A point where they were going to slow Down a little bit whether temporarily or For whatever reason um so what we saw Last week in particular was a series of Outflow dates where gbtc came into some Very very large cide pressure um a lot Of bankrupts Estates are trying to still Liquidate all of their Holdings and we Had a bit of a Slowdown on the inflow From the other ones now that's not the Only component if we look at it from the Onchain world as we break through All-time highs it's it's a very very Classic signal I mean what we see in Every single previous cycle is as you Get to New all-time highs what we call The long-term holders people have held Their coins for a long time they really Start to ramp up their spending and

We've seen this it's exactly the same as Every previous cycle remarkably it it it Feels like it should break these models But they just seem to keep ticking along So not only have we seen gbtc we've also Seen existing holders get into a very Very significant amount of profit um and As a result they' started taking some Chips off the table so um in many ways It looks the same as every previous All-time high break uh remarkably so So To that point the more time we spend up Here chopping wood and actually just Just trading sideways what happens is The market and investors get used to This new altitude and it kind of gets You know it helps people become used to 73,000 to become used to 60,000 and the Longer that we spend up here the deeper The correction generally speaking the More that allows that process to happen And pullbacks are a part of a healthy Uptrend and if you actually don't have a Pullback let's imagine that tomorrow we Wake up we're at 100 grand the Probability that we're going to have a Much deeper and much angrier much longer Correction actually goes up because the Market hadn't really found equilibrium So um pullbacks and Corrections are very Very good they help market trends um so You do need this kind of counter Trend In both directions you said that this is The most solid and resilient bull market

That we have ever seen in Bitcoin History correct yeah and that's just Just simply looking at from a draw down Perspective right I there's really been Two phases two and a half maybe phases The FTX lows the recovery phase was most Of 2023 up until about October and the Way I would describe that it was only The hodlers there was no new money Coming in it was only bare Market Survivors people who really believe in Bitcoin they were the primary actors and They accumulated a huge amount of Supply Back down there you know below 30k kind Of levels then we had uh the next phase Which is between about 30k and the Alltime high and I call this the Enthusiastic bull people now believe the Bull market is in place the excitement About the ETFs coming started to pick up They obviously then went live and then We we very very quickly went from you Know 42k all the way up to to 70 now We're kind of at the phase of Transitioning between the enthusiastic Bull and what I call the euphoric Bull And the euphoric bull is much like 2021 As you break the previous all-time high A lot of mechanics change longterm Holders who've been dormant for a long Time start to spend people get more and More excited the market moves much more Violently you've got a lot more Volatility starts to creep in so these

Are all the things that we can probably Expect moving forward more long-term Holder spending um more people talking About it on the news which is demand That comes in and these two forces are Always trying to balance each other and Price will rise until Supply comes back On the market to satisfy it so we're at The the transition Point into the Euphoria phase um and that Euphoria Phase can normally go for several months Uh at least in in previous uh previous Instances sometimes it go for over a Year most of the 17 here was a uh was a Euphoric phase bull so we can see this Go for a long period of time um but uh Yeah it really comes down to when that Saturation of supply and demand get hit How is onchain analysis different from Technical analysis for example as a tool To understand the Bitcoin Market great Question so technical analysis at the End of the day what you're looking at in Technical analysis it's it's usually Price and some various indicators price Volume and various indicators now why do We have you know let's say for example Ascending or descending triangles or Head and Shoulder patterns why do these Patterns tend to have a statistical lean That they get that the market wants to Move in a particular direction and a Second question to that is why do those Patterns work now when you can go back

And look at assets trading in the 1920s Or the 1950s and those patterns still Seem to work back then as well why is This and the reason why is at human Beings right we are generally speaking Not equipped to trade markets because Our our brain Hardware the way you know Our ape brain from you know thousand Year old Hardware is designed to avoid Risk as like a self-preservation Mechanism now markets because we expose Ourself to risk you buy something and it Can go up can go down it can be exciting You experience fear and greed these are All very visceral human emotions so the Human brain responds to markets and Paints these patterns when you add risk And you add capital and all these things This is why technical an Anis Works yes There's certain like Frameworks and this Pattern means this and this pattern Means this but at the end of the day You're measuring why what human beings Are doing in aggregate onchain analysis Is more or less taking all those same Concepts but looking at it in the Transaction volumes looking at it in Terms of coins moving in profit and loss Looking at are they are they whales are They shrimps are they long-term are they Short-term holders so rather than Painting that picture in price and Volume what we're looking at is well who Is the who is spending who is selling

Who is buying who is coming in who's Holding who's not they're all all the Same psychological components are baked Into are they in profit are they losing Money all of these things help us really Digest what's going on in the market do You have any price range in mind when it Comes to predicting the price of Bitcoin At the top of this bull cycle I have Absolutely no idea and I think anybody Who says that they know is wrong because No one knows um I'm very much in the Camp where um I don't give price Predictions I don't try and phies on When things happen because the way I Like to approach markets and and data About the markets is it will happen when It happens so I know what kind of Behaviors and patterns I'm looking for I Want to see long-term holders having Really flushed out a lot of their coins I want to see Supply saturating demand I Want to see profits that are just Unbelievably high and lots of my Statistical levels getting blown out When I've got all of those in play Whatever the price is at that will be What I would start saying it's starting To look like a top all right right cool Thanks a lot James it's always a Pleasure to have you on our show sounds Great mate thanks for having me on it Was a [Music]

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