Crypto BULL MARKET BACK?! Here’s What You NEED To Know!

Is the crypto bull market returning well The answer to this pressing question Ultimately depends on which indicators You're looking at hence why everyone is Asking it Now some indicators suggest that crypto Spring has sprung While others suggest That the bear Market will soon bite back So today I'm going to examine these Conflicting indicators explain what they Suggest in simple terms and tell you Where the crypto Market could be headed You do not want to miss this Let's start with everyone's favorite Indicator price action now if you Watched our video about when the crypto Bear Market will end you'll know that we Define a crypto bull market as a long Period of positive price action In other words multiple months of higher Highs and higher lows for most major Cryptos as you can see BTC has had four Consecutive months of positive price Action a trend which began in January This year BTC is therefore in a new bull Market according to our basic definition There are a few caveats however and the First is that this multi-month rally Hasn't happened for most major altcoins Apart from eth almost every major Altcoin has been moving sideways over The last four months in a true crypto Bull market you tend to see breadth in The positive price action meaning that

Most altcoins tag along for the ride the Absence of this effect is evidence of a Bear Market rally not a bull market Additional evidence of this being a bear Market rally can be found in eth's price Action as you can see eth didn't have The same double top that BTC did during The previous bull market Eth's price action looks more like what You'd see in a standard Market cycle This could be due to institutional Investment Regardless when we compare eth's price Action to the famous Wall Street cheat Sheet it suggests that we're just past The anger stage that said eth could Easily be in the disbelief phase that Comes before the beginning of a new bull Market This ties into the second caveat and That's trading volume data from coin Market cap suggests that trading volume For BTC has continued to decline as Prices have risen this effect is even More pronounced for eth Now this Divergence of rising prices and Falling volume is further evidence of a Bear Market rally and also suggests that A reversal could be imminent however This decline in trading volume could be Due to institutional investors investing In crypto via centralized proxies like Futures contracts that are settled in Cash due to concerns around crypto

Regulation This would actually explain why the Trading volume for eth is so low Relative to BTC Now the caveat to this caveat is that Eth has also been looking extremely weak Against BTC eth has actually been in a Long-term downtrend against BTC since Last summer the same Trend can be seen For most major altcoins and you'll know This if you follow Ben Caron who's been Talking about it a lot recently again For this to be a true crypto bull market There must be breath there must be wide Participation at least among most major Altcoins to be fair we could soon start To see more money rotate out of BTC into Eth and most major altcoins if this Happens it will be additional evidence Of a new bull market For the time being though Bitcoin Dominance continues to increase For context Bitcoin dominance measures How much of crypto's total market cap is Coming from BTC Bitcoin dominance is Currently close to 50 and has been in a Long-term uptrend since last September Showing no signs of slowing The absence of rotation out of BTC into Eth and most major altcoins could be due To another factor I mentioned a few Moments ago and that's crypto Regulations now before you roll your Eyes you should know that crypto

Regulations are required for Institutions to invest their trillions Into the crypto Market obviously the Largest institutional investors are Based in the United States institutional Investors in the US were likely the Largest contributors to the previous Crypto bull market unfortunately the Regulatory situation in the U.S has Deteriorated significantly over the last Few months and that is putting it mildly In addition to the threats against Specific crypto projects and companies By the SEC the fed and other banking Regulators have been actively working to Debank the crypto industry their primary Targets have been 24 7 payment systems That are analogous to the fed's upcoming Fed now payment system Stablecoin issuers seem to be at the top Of the fed's hit list now this is a Problem because the crypto industry is Heavily reliant on stable coins to Function if anything were to happen to a Stablecoin issuer in the United States It could do serious damage to the crypto Market and be a disaster for the entire Defy Niche however not all stablecoin Issuers are based in the United States And most crypto trading happens against Offshore stable coins namely tethers Usdt this means that the crypto Market Would be mostly fine if a us-based Stablecoin were taken down a Crackdown

On a U.S stablecoin issuer may also not Materialize of course More importantly there are other Countries with lots of institutional Investors that are introducing sensible Crypto regulations if you watched our Video about the countries that will Drive the next crypto bull market you'll Know that the list includes the UAE Saudi Arabia Hong Kong Singapore and Even France you'll also know that each Of these jurisdictions will be Introducing these sensible crypto Regulations very soon France has Technically done so already the markets In crypto assets or micro regulation was Passed by European politicians less than A month ago money is already flowing Into EU crypto startups as a result and It looks like Hong Kong is next Officials there recently announced that Crypto licensing requirements will be Revealed by the end of the month with Retail investor access to crypto coming On the 1st of June it's possible that Lots of money from the Chinese Mainland Will find its way into the crypto market Via Hong Kong it's also likely that lots Of crypto companies will relocate to the Region That's because Hong Kong is requiring Banks to open accounts for crypto Clients this is significant because Crypto companies in crypto-friendly

Jurisdictions like the UAE are still Reportedly struggling to open bank Accounts the caveat is that crypto Investment from Hong Kong will Reportedly be limited to the largest Cryptocurrencies by market cap and Crypto niches like defy could be Completely off limits even so there are Of course many ways of accessing Altcoins once you've got your hands on a Crypto like BTC or eth in any case it's Likely that the passing of positive Crypto regulations in these countries Will be enough to increase the Conviction in crypto's recent price Action and confirm that it's the Beginning of a new bull market however This assumes that macro conditions will Encourage crypto investing in these Regions As most of you will know the primary Macro Factor that's been moving the Crypto Market is interest rates Specifically the interest rate decisions Coming from the Federal Reserve the fact That the FED seems to be near the end of Its rate hiking cycle has been one of The contributors to the recent rally Another contributor has been the Expectation that the FED will soon be Forced to Pivot I.E start lowering Interest rates investors believe the FED Will do this in response to a crisis of Some kind an example of this could be

The stress in the commercial real estate Sector which we covered in a recent Video now the irony to this expectation Is that if the FED is forced to Pivot in Response to a crisis chances are the Crisis will also crash the markets case In point sudden rate Cuts have Historically corresponded to stock Market crashes not rallies it's possible A rate cut will have the same effect on The crypto Market however this presumes That there will be a crisis that forces The FED to Pivot it's possible that There won't be a crisis at all in the Absence of a crisis the only thing that Will convince the FED to Pivot is Falling inflation as it so happens Headline inflation has been falling fast Over the last few months The question there is whether inflation Will fall to the fed's two percent Target and the answer here is less clear Core inflation figures of all kinds Suggest that Services related inflation Isn't coming down nearly as quickly if Core inflation gets stuck at say four Percent then the FED will likely keep Interest rates slightly above that level And the longer the FED keeps interest Rates High the higher the likelihood That markets will crash that something In the financial system will break or Both risk assets like cryptocurrencies Could be hit the hardest because they

Are the most reliant on lower interest Rates for positive price action if You're wondering why the answer is Liquidity that is the amount of money Swimming around in the market and the Economy as interest rates rise liquidity Gets drained out of the financial system As people rush to pay down more Expensive debts and have a harder time Getting access to loans lo and behold The supply of money in the US economy as Measured by M2 has contracted the most In decades over the last four months This should have caused risk assets like Crypto to crash but they pumped instead This can easily be explained by the fact That there is more to the world than the United States although the money supply Has contracted in the US countries like China and Japan have continued to Stimulate and this money has been slowly But surely finding its way into U.S Assets the caveat is that this stimulus May not continue for much longer at Least in China where economic growth is Returning Another reason why risk assets have Rallied is because of the fed and the Treasury the FED recently expanded its Balance sheet in response to the banking Crisis meanwhile the treasury has been Spending money from its de facto Checking account due to the debt ceiling Which is increasing liquidity however

The fed's balance sheet recently started Decreasing again and the debt ceiling Will soon be raised allowing the Treasury to issue bonds again both Factors could further drain liquidity And this could further prolong a crypto Bear Market Then again there is more to the world Than the United States In fact much of the world has been Actively trying to get away from the US Dollar This could have some very interesting Effects for the crypto market during the Next Bull cycle for starters some Countries such as Iran are reportedly Using crypto for trade and others such As Russia may follow suit this could Change cryptos categorization as a risk Asset to something more analogous to a Commodity like gold at least in these Regions Steady crypto demand from these regions Could create a price floor for large Cryptos like BTC and eth the same way They've created an apparent price floor For Gold by they I mean the central Banks which accumulated record levels of Gold last year this was in large part Due to the sanctions against Russia Which caused many central banks to think Twice about keeping large amounts of Reserves in U.S dollar assets in Retrospect sanctions could prove to be

The Catalyst that killed the dollar While these central banks haven't begun Accumulating crypto yet the bank for International settlements announced last December That central banks will be Allowed to hold up to two percent of Their balance sheets in crypto starting In 2025. you'll know this if you watched Our video about that historic Announcement by that time the crypto Bull market should be in full swing and If it's not well it's likely that'll be The Catalyst that kicks it off that's Because two percent of central bank Balance sheets currently works out to Around 3.6 trillion dollars it's Possible that some central banks have Begun secretly accumulating crypto Already and it's not just the central Banks either trust in the financial System is deteriorating at a rapid rate And it appears that the crypto Market Will continue to grow as trust in the Traditional Financial system continues To decline This is evidenced by how much the crypto Market pumped in response to the banking Crisis if the banking crisis continues In some way shape or form you can expect To see more of the same positive price Action for most cryptocurrencies even if The banking crisis doesn't continue Central Bank digital currencies or cbdcs Are coming and they could have the same

Effect on the crypto Market This is because cbdcs will make it Possible for governments and central Banks to control how you spend and how You save as with the banking crisis the Average person will quickly realize that Government money is not a safe place to Store their wealth and will start to Seek out alternative stores of value the Practical effect of this will be the Same as the marginal buying by central Banks the average person will likely Allocate a small percentage of their Portfolio to assets that exist outside Of the financial System including crypto This percentage will become bigger if These Alternatives become easier to use Now this might sound like something that Will only happen far out in the future But it's already happening now all Around the world individuals and Institutions are turning to crypto Either because their currencies are Collapsing their banking systems are Struggling or because cbdcs are being Rolled out as I hinted a few moments ago This combined buying could set a price Floor for many cryptocurrencies this Price floor will likely rise as the Appeal of traditional currencies Continues to decline as such we could Very well be at the beginning of a Crypto super cycle or at least a crypto Market cycle unlike any other the caveat

To this is that the incumbents will not Go quietly this potential super cycle Will likely be accompanied by Unprecedented amounts of price Volatility as entities in the existing Financial system try to crush or control Crypto Some would say this has already started And the recent price action is proof but Back to the crypto Market cycle as most Of you will know crypto tends to follow A four-year cycle This is believed to be because of the Bitcoin halving which occurs roughly Every four years the last Bitcoin Halving happened in May 2020 and what Followed was an almost two year long Crypto bull market However many would argue that the crypto Bull market began prior to the previous Halving BTC had already been in a strong uptrend For months and it hit 14k in May 2019. In fact that early 2019 rally looks Eerily similar to the one we're seeing Now four months of green albeit with Much more volume this begs the question Of whether history will repeat Specifically whether BTC will experience A flash crash that retests its bear Market lows of around 15K in theory this Is very unlikely because the previous Flash crash back down to around 3K was Caused by the beginning of the pandemic

In March 2020. in practice however this Is still possible and that's because There are so many similar catalysts to Choose from a 2008 style financial Crisis caused by commercial real estate A war between China and the us over Taiwan Civil Wars due to inflation and Political polarization or that Global Cyber attack predicted by the world Economic forum more about the wefts Cyber attack simulation in the Description I digress now even if History does somehow repeat a retest of The crypto bear Market lows would likely Be short-lived it would also not change The fact that we're in the same time Frame when the previous crypto bull Market arguably began one year prior to The next Bitcoin halving which is Scheduled for next April however this Analysis only applies to BTC if you look At the historical price action of most Major altcoins you'll notice most of Their prices flatlined between May 2018 And the Bitcoin halving in May 2020 You'll also notice that most of them Only hit their bottoms during the Pandemic flash crash this means that Even if the crypto bull market has begun You still have at least a year to Accumulate your favorite altcoins and It's possible you'll still manage to Catch the bottom on some of them the Caveat is that some of these altcoins

Will never recover especially if Interest rates stay higher for longer To be honest the effects that high Interest rates would have on the crypto Market are not clear because the crypto Market has never experienced a period of Sustained High rates still Common Sense Suggests that most cryptocurrencies Possibly even large altcoins like eth Will not fare well under such conditions For established proof-of-stake cryptos Like eth the yield on staking rewards Needs to be higher than the yields on Traditional financial investments for Institutions to be interested in some Cases they need to be much higher to Compensate for that additional risk that Comes with investing in crypto versus Bonds for instance For most other altcoins there needs to Be lots of speculation for them to Receive heavy inflows and these levels Of speculation and inflows require lower Interest rates to my mind the most Speculative cryptos in existence are all The ethereum competitors as they stand To capture the most value if they Succeed logically then you should be on The lookout for the most speculative Cryptos if you think interest rates will Come back to zero if you think that Interest rates will stay higher well be On the lookout for cryptos that have the Largest cash flow in the form of fees or

Yield or the potential to capture this Cash flow I'll let you do the research On that And that is all for today's video folks But I want to hear from you now do you Think we're in another crypto bull Market be sure to let me know in the Comments section and give me your Rationale too if you have the time of Course also remember to smash that like Button if you enjoyed the video and Subscribe to the channel and ping that Notification Bell so you don't miss the Next one this is the time you need to be Paying attention after all it's also the Time you need to be making the most of The crypto market and the coin Bureau Deals page can help you do just that It's got thousands of dollars of Discounts and trading incentives so more About all that in the description as Always thank you for watching and I will See you next time till then stay cool Stay safe and stay crypto [Music] Thank you