CPI, Bitcoin, and the S&P 500

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Macroverse today we're going to talk About the most recent CPI report and We're going to discuss the implications For risk assets such as Bitcoin and the S&P 500 if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse To talk about today but why should today Be any different than any other day I Feel like there are a lot of different Potential outcomes that we could see and I want to go through first we have to Set the framework right we have to talk About inflation then we have to talk About prior times where inflation look Something like this and then talk about Those outcomes and then how they Actually achiev or the path they Actually took and you're probably going To be looking at some of these analoges You're like well that looks really Similar right it looks really similar But there's one thing I I I remind Myself of constantly and it's that if You go back and look at any prior Business cycle and try to compare it to Another cycle that came before it they All look different right it's not like There's a single business cycle where

You can see oh yeah that played out Exactly like this other one did so while The analoges might look Similar it's important to remember that They will not play out out the exact Same way right no business cycle is Precisely like another one the timing is Different the you know the pullbacks are Different the moves higher are different It's Different so I I I want people to be Aware of that right we're not going into This thinking all right it's going to Play out like you know how it did in 1970 or 1940 or in 2000 or in 2008 or 2020 right everyone is going to have its Own characteristics because if it played Out identically then the market would Sort of learn that and the market would Adapt to it and then of course that Would change the cycle in and of itself But let's talk about inflation let's Talk about what it looks like from Previous business Cycles let's talk About some potential paths we could see The first thing inflation came in at 3% Headline technically speaking it was 2.98 2.98% this is great right it's great it Means that the Federal Reserve could Theoretically start cutting Sometime Late a little bit later this year right Now the thing that I should mention if We pull up the um uh the this CME watch

Tool thing the Market's calling for a Rate cut in September all right now I'll Be honest back in June back in June if you Remember I was looking at at all Bitcoin Pairs right let's see total 3 minus us Bitcoin this one we're looking at this I Was like well guys kind of looks like Allit Bitcoin pairs are breaking down Meaning that the FED could cut in July Right because if you look at on the Monthly candle if you look at the Monthly candle it was all the way down Here at like. 36 so I was like all right Guys potential that the FED Cuts in July If we get a weekly close below 04 or a Monthly close a monthly close below 04 last cycle once we had a monthly Close by all Bitcoin pairs why am I Talking about this is a CPI video what The hell how did this happen but once we Had a monthly close below the range low In 2019 the FED cut the following month Right the FED cut the following month so In in June when we saw it down here I Was like all right they're going to cut They might cut in July but what ended up Happening is in June all Bitcoin pairs Rallied back up and they ended up Closing at 0 four so that's why my bias Originally was to say hey a rate cut in July based on the fact that all Bitcoin Pairs are breaking down now I'm more Compelled to say all right it it might

Not actually be July simply because all Bitcoin pairs are still sitting at Support right they're still sitting at At 04 041 my base case is that Eventually they break but that is is Something that has not yet played out Right it has not yet played out and so Because of that because of that when you Look at at the watch toll you can see That there's only about an 8% chance 8 To 9% chance of a rate cut in July Despite the fact that inflation came in At 3% now remember the FED said pal said They don't have to see inflation at 2% They just need to see it on a durable Path to 2% a durable path to 2% now is this a durable path to 2% is The question right is a 3% print a Durable path to 2% and I don't know that It is and I don't really think that pal Thinks it is just yet either because Again if they thought it was enough then I imagine the market especially Considering this is only you know about Two and a half weeks away the market Would not be assigning a 91% chance of a Of of no rate cut at the July meeting if If Powell thought that this was enough Evidence for um you know for a rate cut And unfortunately we're not going to be Getting that many more data points Between now and then we might get some Like you know maybe some like pce stuff But we're not going to be getting any

More inflation prints uh or at least not No more headline inflation prints no More you know none of the core stuff That just came in today we're not going To be getting any unemployment data Between now and then so you'd have to Have something big happen for the FED to Cut in July again it could happen and Last month it would have been my base Case that they cut in July but right now My base case is that it actually might Be delayed until until September I don't Really have a strong conviction either Way I don't really think it matters Whether it's July or September the sort Of the the effects in the market you Know whether it starts in in you know August because this is the really the Last day of July right whether it starts In August or or September isn't really That big of a deal but it is something To be aware of so when you look at Inflation and you're like well that's Below three I mean that's 2.98% that's 3% that's good right like that's a good Thing you know and it's actually the Lowest number we've had In this entire move up by inflation so Long story short inflation coming in at Around 3% is good news I mean this is Ultimately what we want to see right we Want to see inflation start to go back Down so that everything's just not going

Up in price so quickly the question is Is it enough to justify a rate cut is it Enough okay now on one hand of the Spectrum you have people that have been Screaming for rate cuts since 2022 began You know um the people that that thought We'd never even get to 3 and a half% all They ever talk about are are rate Cuts Then you have the other people that say We're going to have to have another rate Hike I don't think we're going to have To have another rate hike I also think It was obvious that the the Fed was Going to have to go you know to to well Over 5% it had to get above inflation And remember back then inflation was a Lot higher than it is today you know it Was back I mean at one point it was at Like 9% or so so when you look at this I Think you have to look at the context of History now there's three different Scenarios you have to talk about soft Landing hard Landing well I guess those are the two I Mean there's there's theoretically the No Landing scenario but I don't I'm not Really a believer in the no Landing Scenario right at some point it's Either it's I guess it depends on what We're talking about if you're talking About the market I'm talking about Either a hard Landing or a soft Landing If you're talking about inflation then You could have a a no Landing where you

Really don't go below 3% in any durble Fashion and then it just takes back off So when is the last time that we saw a Wave of Inflation where it came back down to 3% Well look no further than 1972 okay now let's look to see what H Or really 19 it was it was this drop Here started in 1969 1970 but you will see that inflation Dropped and it dropped to 2.96% in June of 1972 now we just got the data point for June of 2024 at 2.98% again over Here when it when it had when it had This drop it dropped to 2.96% and then the following month it Was still at 2.96% in July And then the following month it was at 2.95% now do you see what happened in That outcome what Happened inflation started to go back Up you see that it started to go back up Into the end of the Year I know there's a lot of us here Thinking there's no way there could be a Second round of inflation and I hope There is not but with that said we Can't Ignore one potential path that history Shows us is possible to happen right It's possible that you get something That causes the yield curve to un invert Everyone gets spooked and they just turn

The money printer back on well before They should and instead of seeing Inflation drop to where we want it to go To 2% it just starts to go back up and What happened back then is that the SNP it kind of topped out in in the Summer months right like June July August not topped out but I mean it just Didn't go anywhere right it slowly went Higher but it didn't really go anywhere And then it had one final move October November December right one final move And then we had a big drop where the S&P Put in a new low over the next year and A half or almost two years right from From January 1973 until October of 1974 And the reason reason why I did this is Because we got a second round of Inflation you see we got a second round Of inflation because we did not follow Through we did not follow through and Keep interest rates high for long enough To really slow the economy down and you See we paid the price for it we we had The consequences for it you ever think About how like when you're you know if You're talking to you know like your Grandparents um or or even your parents And and they might be saying well you Know back in my day you know back you Know in the 1960s or 1950s or whatever You know the price of this was that Right like the price of milk was so Cheap you know gas was so cheap

Everything was so much cheaper than it Is today you can look at the chart and See why look at what happened in the 1970s you had three rounds of Inflation think about how much more Expensive things are Today compared to four years ago Think about if you had to do that two More cycles of higher and higher Inflationary prints that is why you have People from like the 1960s that talk About how cheap things were and how Expensive things are today because they Had to live through this you know if you Were born if you're a millennial I was Born I was born um in in 1990 if you're A millennial then you didn't you know You just kind of this is all you knew You just knew these higher prices you Didn't you weren't sort of witnessed to These lower prices but now that us Millennials are sort of you know coming Into sort of the Prime sort of the prime Years uh we're starting to see all right Well inflation really sucks and we Really don't want it to come back again At least not anytime Soon So if the FED Cuts in July which I don't Really think they're going to do but if They do then there is a higher risk Potentially of this this happening right Of just you know the Market not Market liking it in the short

Term for maybe about 3 to four months or Maybe maybe through the end of the year Early even early January but then the market starts to Sense oh now we're just going to have Another round of inflation because the Fed was unwilling to do what needed to Be done that is one example where you Could see the S&P play out like that now In that Scenario I would have to imagine that The the Bitcoin would follow suit and Then you would end up getting a left Translated Peak something like that Could happen it is it's just it is what It is and you know the longer I've been In doing this I mean you have to you Have to trade with the market gives you Not the market that you want okay and so That is an outcome to be aware of you Know does Bitcoin get a Q4 rally kind of Like it did after the summer low of 2023 if you guys remember remember in 2023 Bitcoin had I mean it's almost an Identical setup in the sense that like You know even on the monthly candles it Looks really similar you see it I mean Like a red a green these are monthly Candles red so green red green then here Green red green and then red red green Red red what if the next one's Green in August but maybe it puts in a slightly Lower low and then it and then it just Takes off in in sort of in gearing up

For Q4 something like that could happen Now if if it does do that it would raise The probability of a left translated Peak however there's also a chance where The summer lull extends into Q4 like it Did in 2019 when rate Cuts arrived if it Does that like what it did in 2019 when Rate Cuts arrived You could argue that You'll just get a normal cycle where you Know the market cools off for you know 6 Months or so maybe you get some spike Down on on an uninverted yield curve or Something and then the FED just prints Money and then you just you know you you Have a a really good 2025 and the market Peaks when it always does in Q4 of the Post having year I think there is a case To be made right that that could still Theoretically happen a lot of it depends On what happens in Q4 what happens in Q4 and that might be Dependent well probably would be Dependent on what the Federal Reserve Does do they look at this inflation data And say this is enough for us to cut in July or do they say no we're going to Have to wait until September everything That I've heard poell say so far has Made me think they are waiting until September okay that is my interpretation Of the market right now even though last Month I said when all Bitcoin pairs were At like 37 I said they could cut in July But we saw we saw all Bitcoin pairs

Rally back up and they haven't seen that Monthly close below 04 right they just Haven't seen it yet and so because of That Because of that you have to wonder does The FED Kick the Can down the road now Remember last cycle all Bitcoin pairs Entered final Capitulation a month before the FED cut Rates and with inflation coming in at 2.9% if they don't cut rates in July I Feel like they're going to be very hard Pressed to do it in September right now 86% chance of a rate cut in September Now if the FED Cuts rates in September And it plays out like 2019 that would Imply that all Bitcoin pairs finally Break down one month before September Which of course would be August and it Would imply that e Bitcoin breaks down The month of fed Cuts rates which would Be September that's what happened last Cycle so when you look at inflation and You see it come back down to 2.98% you Have to go back and see when was the Last time this Happened and guess what it was 1972 in The summer of 197 72 the same time frame Where we are now it would be foolish to Deny the similarities it would be Foolish to deny the similarities going Just below 3% in the Summer of an election Year and then this happens and you could

See it playing out right it's not that Hard to imagine you know everyone Celebrates the you know the all the all The battles against the SEC that have Been won like the SEC just keeps taking One loss after another with the Cryptoverse crypto keeps winning against The SEC um so that's one you also have Um you know a ton of other things that Could happen and then we're like oh We're in this sort of Nirvana state but Then oh crap we have to deal with Another round of inflation because we Were unable to tame the animal Spirits is It 1972 that's one example it looks pretty Convincing but I could also show you Something equally convincing that is not 1972 And the Reason the reason is because the the Reason that the market look if if Everyone's looking at this chart and It's priced in right if you believe in Sort of you know that if if it's data That's available right if you know Ficient Market hypothesis I don't even Know if I fully believe in but if you Believe in it and you're looking at this And this would already have been priced In so then why hasn't it been priced in Because there's no guarantee you get a Second round of Inflation let's roll back the

Clock 30 years before the 1970s let's go Look at the 1940s now the 1940s are interesting Because that's also coming out of a Period of high inflation right let's go Look at this so we're going to look at The US inflation rate year-over-year Now look at this chart and in the 1940s you can See that they all also had different Rounds of I mean this is 1930s but you Can see that they had different level You know rounds of Inflation but guess What they also had some deflationary Crashes where the inflation rate Actually went deflationary for periods Of Time so one example I don't know if it Actually went deflationary over here uh Perhaps we could zoom in and see like What it actually came in at um sorry I Need to flip this over To I think that's right Um it looks Like let me get rid of the bull market Support Band Um okay so let me merge all these skills Into one and then we're just going to See where this came in at it looks like It was right at around right around um Zero maybe negative 01 or something Right but but really close right really

Close so you look at that and you're Like well you know we did get another Round of inflation but it wasn't for Like a couple more years right like Inflation came down and it and it went To zero right like it's not like it Didn't just stall out at 3% which is Where we are now right if you look at This like you can see that it it sort of Stalled out at around 3% in January of 1944 Which was an election Year but then by the summer it had Dropped all the way down to Zero but that's not what I'm talking About I'm talking about this one and the Reason I'm talking about this one is Because this was post world World War II The reason why we talk about this is Because post World War II we were living In a world where all this money had been Printed said to helped finance the war So we were dealing with this huge spike In Inflation And by the summer of 1948 the election Year inflation had dropped you know to Around 7 to %. now that might sound kind Of ridiculous a drop to 7 to %. you have To understand that had we calculate if We calculated inflation today the same Way we calculated it back in you know 1947 then it would have gone a lot Higher right it's just they changed the

Definition or they changed the way they Calculated it so it the peak wasn't as High that's why when you think about Like the prices of things and you're Like and and they tell you that it's Only inflation is only x amount but in Some sectors you see it's gone up a lot More like the way they calculated in in The 1940s was actually quite a bit Different than the way they calculated Now but what you can see is that we Ended up having a Deflationary crash a deflationary crash That really Started in the summer of 1948 you can See that in July 1948 inflation started To roll over and then it crashed for one Year and we had a deflationary crash and You could look at this guess what the Market did during that time in that time The market the S&P 500 did not actually Rally in Q4 of that year I believe If you look at at it um right Here you can see the market the S&P Actually went down in Q4 of that year And it basically went down to the prior Lows that it had set now obviously this Cycle looks different than 1946 to 1949 Because we actually put in new highs Whereas back over here we did not but You can see that like that that Deflationary crash caused the market to Go down down in Q4 instead of Up so if we get a second round of

Inflation because the FED pivots too Soon then you could see a Q4 rally but Maybe we pay the price for it in 2025 2026 If the Fed stays the course long Enough to get the job done and and not Risking another round of Inflation then maybe you could get a Soft Landing or if they stay the course To too long then perhaps you get a Deflationary crash now a deflationary Crash would obviously not be very fun For the markets but there's also some Elements of deflation that would Actually be quite nice like you know Seeing prices come back down which is Not something that often happens and Probably shouldn't be a base case Because you know it's not like it's that Frequent where you actually see prices Come back down so I want you to think About this for a minute okay look at the S&P 500 right now trying to actually Pull it up let's look at the S&P 500 Right Now all right where is it where did it Just rally to from this high it just Rallied to the 1.618 FIB extension you see that now go Look at 1972 go look at 1972 remember we were talking about that Earlier this one you know starting from 1968 Sorry I clicked on the wrong

Thing we're going to go Here it did not make it to the 1.618 Right you see that it did not make it There and you could argue one of the Reasons was because we had a second Round of inflation if you go the cycle Before That it topped precisely at the 1 . 618 Before we had another draw down at the 1.618 we put in a new high and then we Ultimately put in a new low but it Actually topped out in Q4 so then where are we now where are we Now well again we're already at the 1.618 that doesn't mean it it has to be The top right it might not be in fact if You look at the crash from the 1998 Peak Right so this first Peak to the draw Down you can see that we went up to the 1.618 we got Rejected and we put in a low in October Kind of like what we did last year and Then we got another rally up higher into The following year and then the market Sold off see That the market then sold Off now I don't know if that's what's Going to play out I could find Similarities for it for sure in fact Some of the similarities for it Suggested that you know maybe you get a A a 10% pullback off the 1.618 followed By a Q4 rally into early next year some Of the you know some of the pieces of

Evidence for that will be to go look at At year-to-date returns look at at Year-to-date returns of of Nvidia and And I want you to compare it we're going To compare It to last year look at Nvidia this Year compared to last year it's almost Identical in fact it's almost identical But because Nvidia sort of stalled out In the summer that's one of the reasons Why we saw the S&P drop last year Because one of the main reasons the the Market was going up to begin with was Because Nvidia was lifting it up but the Minute Nvidia stopped lifting it up then The stock market ultimately sold off and That's why if you go back over to the Index the S&P 500 and you look at at What happened in 2023 compared to 2024 You can see in 2023 when Invidia stopped Going up like up only that's when the Market that's when the S&P 500 sold off Because the only reason the market was Going up to begin with basically was Because of the Magnificent 7 I'm sure You've heard a lot of people talk about You know the advanced decline index like The top 100 in the advanced decline Index and and why you know this Market Is being led by only fewer and fewer Names is because Tighter and Tighter Monetary policy people are nervous about Putting their money in high-risk assets They put in lower risk assets only those

Names lead so if the S&P falls into October like last year then maybe you do Get a Q4 bounce very Similar to 1972 Again getting a bounce out of October Into sort of the end of the year same Thing happened in the do com crash like A bounce of October into the following Year right where the market ultimately Topped out in in March there's also some Other similarities that I I think are a Little bit dubious but I want to at Least bring them up if you look at the Launch of the QQQ in 19 in 1999 it Launched in March and then it topped one Year Later launched in March and it launched At 4 8 and then the low in August was 52.9 48 52.9 now if you think about Bitcoin remember the the the spot ETF Launched right here and it hit a high of 48k and in August if it does sweep this Low it could go slightly below 53 which Would be that 52k level 52.9k or Something that's if it plays out like it Played out back Then it's dubious it's not an exact Match either because Bitcoin already Went up to 73k and if you look at you Know if you look at at something like The uh the QQQ if you pull up the

QQQ back then you know when it had that Move it it did not make it to 73 Until until November right so bitcoin's ETF was Already a more explosive launch so you Could argue You could argue two things You could argue well because it had a More explosive launch maybe it has a Deeper pullback kind of like 2019 or you Could argue because it had a more Explosive launch maybe it goes up even Higher but again in the QQQ case what Ended up happening was it launched in March of 1999 and then it topped in March 2000 at 120 and then it Dropped back down to 19 I do not Hope I I I hope that this is not the Path that Bitcoin takes because it would Be a very brutal path not because of of Of it dropping but because of how long It you know the QQQ ended up spending at These lower levels right all the way Back down here between 19 and you know 54 and then coming back down to 25 and I Mean this is like eight years later Right I mean you're spending like a Decade at those lower prices I don't Imagine anyone wants that Honestly but it's something to be aware Of right it is something to be aware of And I'm just trying to find all the Similarities and one thing I want to

Mention as it relates to to 1972 and and and 1948 is that one thing To consider is that in 1948 a lot of times the market goes Up when an incumbent is running leading Up to the presidential election if it's An open field the market usually goes Down into the ction kind of like going Down into October there's actually There's some there's been some charts Circulating on Twitter I don't have it Up right now but I'm sure you could fig You know you could find one Um and so one thing you know one thing To consider about about these markets is That maybe you see something play out For for one market today that was a Different Market back then the only Thing I want to mention again about About the 1946 to 1948 move here is does it look at all Like any of the markets we're looking at Today does it And it sort of does but not for the S&P I mean the this this the S&P does not Look like this does it right the S&P is Put in new highs Bitcoin doesn't look Like this bitcoin's put in new Highs but If you overlay this chart if you take This chart right here switch this to a Lug scale but if you if you take this And you overlay it not with Bitcoin not With the S&P but with the altcoin

Market with the altcoin Market what do you get what do you get Do you get something looks similar and There is there are some Similarities to this it's just that They're taking place basically like you Know a century Apart where you have something that Looks like That now I have been on the record Saying many many times that it is Possible to get a new low for altcoins Even if Bitcoin doesn't that should not Be a controversial opinion last cycle Altcoins put in a new low in the having Year even when Bitcoin and ethereum did Not they altcoins did put in a new low Right so I wonder you know I do wonder Sometimes like are we witnessing this Play out where you're getting you're Getting this like this 2019 style bleed By altcoins very similar to what Happened back over here right very very Similar to what happened back over there And so for the way for this to play out In a way that does not mimic what the QQQ Did in the dot Crash is to have the summer low extend Beyond the Summer have it extend through December like it did in 2019 okay if it does that then it allows The market to digest the move more it

Could mean lower prices even for Bitcoin Right but it would allow the market to Sort of digest this a little bit Longer right and again the reason why I Say you have to be careful with alts is Because I mean look if Bitcoin were to Go to like like even sub 50k a lot of Alts are going to be putting in new lows The reason I say that is because a lot Of them are already near their Lows so you have to be careful with that Now I don't know if this is going to Play out or not it's a risk it's a risk Though right it is there's AIS risk of It happening the way this happens though Is If the Fed stays the course long Enough to cause a deflationary scare Over another inflationary scare in the Short term because if they pivot too Soon and inflation just starts to pick Back up it's likely going to take some Time meaning instead you're going to you Know you could get a Q4 rally right Because the Market's just going to say All right well they're just going to Turn the money printer back on you know It's just going to be all systems going Q4 and we'll deal with inflation next Year assuming it starts to rear its ugly Head again but if the FED pushes back And says you know what we're still not Going to Pivot in July despite the fact That inflation is down to 3% we're still Not going to Pivot the longer they say

That the more you risk a 1948 Scenario where the market actually goes Down into Q4 as opposed to So I want to I want to I want everyone To be aware of that so you have this 1970 style scenario where it could just Hold support at 3% and If the Fed pivots Too soon and we turn the money printer Back on then you know next year is Probably going to suck in terms of Inflation because then you're just going To have to deal with another round of Inflation and this is what happened in The 1980s where you know they Experienced all these waves of inflation And then vulker finally said all right Enough is enough we're going to do what We need to do until inflation is Actually under control And they did that and then you look back On this decade and the market basically Went nowhere for 10 years now a lot of I Mean there definitely were moves higher Right definitely moves higher and again If you look at the S&P 500 if you go look at it this is a move To the 1.6.8 right I mean it was a big Move up from the high if you take a a Price move from the 2021 High to where It is today I mean it's gone up 177% That's a big move higher if you look at The 1970s You go look at the 1970s from 1966 to

1969 or 1968 that was a 16% move up Right again about a similar move and Then from that Peak to the next one it Was about an 11% move up so even in Inflationary Cycles like you can still See slightly higher highs by the S&P 500 But we also saw lower lows as Well So I think it's too so when you look at Inflation and you're like well if in 1972 we saw a bottom at 3% and we saw The market rally in Q4 and we also saw QQQ launch and it we know it topped one Year later and we had the Doom crash Like why doesn't that just happen again Where Bitcoin tops in January one year After the spot ETF launched that's Possible guys it's possible you should Be prepared for that outcome I have said Be Bitcoin heavy over altcoin heavy for The last like three years in case Bitcoin just goes parabolic like and you Want exposure to the cryptoverse that's What I've done Bitcoin heavy over Altcoin heavy and I don't apologize for It that's my view and I have my reasons For It so how do you avoid that right how do You avoid that how do you get a Situation where instead of it just Rallying in Q4 and and then inflation Coming back and all that stuff how do You avoid It how do you avoid it and how do you

Get a normal cycle top in say Q4 of the Post having year well the way you get it I guess is to have a 2019 style lull and There's evidence for it right there's Evidence for it for sure and some of That evidence is things we've talked About relentlessly right the idea that Last cycle the midcycle top for Bitcoin Occurred when gold broke out right That's when it occurred if you look at Last cycle gold broke out right here in 2019 that's what marked the midcycle top For Bitcoin before it entered into a 9-month downtrend and if you look at at This cycle gold broke out right here in March right around the time Bitcoin hit Its local top at around 73k so perhaps it is like 2019 and Perhaps the summer low extends into Q4 But the problem right now is that There's no way to know if Q4 is going to Go up or if Q4 is going to be down and The reason there's no way to know it is Because we don't know what inflation's Going to do between now and then and Because we don't know what inflation is Going to do we don't know what the fed's Reaction function is going to Be imagine they don't cut in sep Setember right imagine you know imagine We get another bad inflation print and Then they cut in in November or Something right the longer they take the More they risk a deflationary

Crash the sooner they cut the more they Risk a second round of inflation do you See both examples where you have one Example where you had an inflation a Second wave Higher in the 1970s and then in the 1940s you had a deflationary crash do You see how difficult it is to to Manufacture to engineer a soft Landing Where we just go into that 2% level and Stay there it's really really really Difficult you can see the similarity I Mean like look at look at uh total 3 it Looks really similar to 2019 in the Sense that and others actually already Is is playing this out like look at Total three you see how in 2019 it Rallied up got a low and then bounced Higher and then came back down it kind Of looks like maybe it's doing the same Thing right it put in a low it went up And it's just slowly fading back down if You're not sure if it's going to get Back down here look at others others is Already back down there almost right Look at it it's almost back down to the Same Level kind of the same thing that Happened in 2019 you see that it's Almost it's almost an identical Move so if Q4 is down for for Bitcoin And for S&P then others would likely not Go anywhere except maybe a slightly you Know a slight down Trend that it tries

To get support at now of course in last Cycle we ended up going below it because We had a recession and so I would say That if we get a recession then others Will likely go below you know 180 Billion or so which is where this Support well I guess it's technically at Um 174 billion yeah a recession likely Means others goes below that no Recession could mean that it holds Support at that level and you get a soft Landing last cycle you could argue that This is what a soft Landing looked Like you could argue that's what a soft Landing looked like maybe this cycle we Could argue this is what a soft Landing Would look like where it just kind of Comes back in and settles you know at Around 170 billion or so if that's the Case you might be wondering huh well Where's the rest of the the Bitcoin Dominance move going to come from if Others is already near these lows as I Just said higher market cap alts still Have more to give back right in order to Get back down to that level right that's How you get there the higher market cap Alts give it back and so to ethereum Gives it you know going back to to Bitcoin again if if if if the collapse Of eth Bitcoin does occur it probably Doesn't occur until the month the FED Cuts rates whether that's July September Whatever I don't know when but that's

Probably what I guess and again with a Spot ETF for ethereum on Deck again That's going to be a a Tailwind for eth In the short term um but again it still Hasn't happened yet So with Inflation it's a tricky scenario and if You look at at at core inflation core Inflation it actually has looked pretty Good right it's just continuing to Slowly Trend Down now it's at 3.28% it's moving in the right direction And if you look at the contributions per Category this is kind of where it gets Really interesting because then you can Go through and you can look at you know At at at food and beverage and you can See that it actually went up right which Is not something you really want to see I mean maybe if it just levels out here That'd be okay but it actually went up And that was the first time it had Actually seen an Increase since August of 2022 so you know I don't it's not the Best sign but Um if you look at Housing housing had a had a nice drop From 2.03% to 1.95 and obviously housing Uh has a big weight component to it and So that's one reason why we saw Inflation come down even though things Like food and beverage went up

Apparel uh dropped Slightly Transportation dropped Medical Care went up again Recreation dropped a Little bit from 0073 to 0072 education and Communication 048 this is the Contribution per category right Of the of the overall thing I mean I Guess this is contribution into 3% let's Just look at it per category this might Actually be a little bit more Informative because these might actually Make a little bit more sense in terms of Like what the actual inflation reading Is so if you look at it like This headline Inflation right I mean it just dropped To 3% so food and beverage went up to 2.2% so it's a little bit back above two It's it's above 2% housing dropped from 4.56 to 4.38 apparel dropped from 08 to 765 Transportation dropped from 2.74 Back to 1.23 that's a good sign Medical Care went up Recreation dropped a little From 1.36 to 1.33 education and communication went up From 0.5 to7 and then other goods and Services this is one that I'm not too Happy with because that actually you Know it went back up to over % and you Know this is one that's taking a lot Longer to fade to the downside and you Just don't really want to see it go up

Especially if you're wanting to see Things kind of come back in that 2% Level so this is really where I would Argue we stand with the market I would Say this Q4 is completely open for anything to Happen in the meantime what you're Likely going to see with with things Like Bitcoin you're likely going to see Bitcoin in August potentially rally back Up to its bull market support band and Try to test that right kind of like it Did in 2019 you know where it it it fell Below Consolidated for about a you know About a month and then it had a rally Back up and then it got rejected and put In a new low so at the very least you're Probably going to see something like That happen in the next couple of months And then whether it gets above it or not Is going to be dependent on you know all This all this macro data and what the Fed's ultimately doing now where it Really becomes important is if you do Get a rejection and we go Lower then in October October is where Things start to open up because on the Second test in 2019 Bitcoin got Through and then we had a recession so That's what I would look for you know Does if Bitcoin rallies back up to the Bullmark sport band in in August and it Gets rejected and we go back down in September does it then rally back up in

October and if so does it get above it Or do you get some type of you know of Of deflationary Trend in the market that The market starts to get spooked about In the short term and then therefore it Sells off so I think the question really About you know whether the market goes Up in Q4 or not it's going to depend on Does inflation start to go back up if Inflation starts to go back up slowly You could argue there's more a higher Chance of a Q4 a Q4 rally if inflation Starts to keep keeps going down and Starts to go down aggressively kind of Like it did in 1948 then maybe you see Q4 the market for Q4 be down the other Thing remember is if there's 's an open Field in the presidential election which Again I mean I'm not going to get into Politics but uh there's a lot of data Just from a data perspective when it's An open Field the market doesn't like that Because there's more uncertainty and Therefore the market goes down into the Election um when there's an open field If there if the incumbent is running and It's not an open field then the market Generally goes Up into the election so that is uh That's kind of where we are guys and That's sort of the inflation print for Today the inflation topic uh we also Covered of course you know Bitcoin and

Altcoins and all that good stuff so make Sure you guys subscribe give the video a Thumbs up and again check out the sale On into the cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse decom I'll see you Guys next time bye