Chris Dunn: Opinions on Bitcoin price levels

What is this a penny stock I don't know It looks like a scam so I ignored it a 19-year-old guy making 10 bucks an hour With $1,000 to his name hope is a Four-letter cuss word in trading and Investing the idea of like a better form Of money sounded like we were about to Go through the biggest transition what Do you mean the US government can just Create $5 Trillion welcome to coin telegraph's Crypt trading Secrets Podcast Hey everyone your host BJ pyus here this Episode's guest is Chris Dunn Chris is An investor Trader YouTuber and Podcaster Chris has been in crypto for Quite some time he first heard about Bitcoin around 2011 but he didn't dive Into the asset until 2013 He's been to over 100 countries and has A notable amount of trading and Investing experience okay here's Chris Dunn hey Chris how's it going very good BJ how you doing I'm good I'm good it's Great to have you on the show yeah Thanks for having me yeah for sure so The show is normally divided into three Sections first up is finding the bottom Where I ask guests what they think about Bitcoin's price in the bare market so Far in 20203 bitcoin's price has moved Up from near the mid to Upper $166,000 Range to up past 25 $5,000 then down

Below $20,000 and then back up past $26,000 according to coin telegraph's Bitcoin price index chart so from a Macro longer term view what's your Opinion on bitcoin's price taking into Account the last few months and the Months ahead great question so the way That I think about it is and the best Data that we have is looking at prior Market Cycles based on the having and so If we look back at really the the last Two That had real like trading liquidity and So if we look back at 2016 one thing That I look at or actually three things I look at is the days from the prior Market Cycles pivot low to the having Date so basically from the prior Market Cycle how many days was it from the Bottom to having because typically Several hundred days ahead of the having The market starts to ramp up into a bull Market the second metric I look at is How many were we in an accumulation Range prior to having a breakout before The having right because after we go Through a bare market price will Typically hang around the lows for quite A while and then after the having how Many days to the market top and so in 2016 it was 540 days from the pivot low To the having 254 days after the Accumulation range breakout and then we Had over 500 Days of a bull market after

That and 2020 was pretty close to that The 2020 having we had about a little Over 500 Days from the pivot load of the Having just like 2016 and from Accumulation range breakout to the Having it was actually a little longer About 400 days and then after the having We had over 500 days again so I know That that's a lot of numbers and it Might sound confusing but that's Basically how I kind of quantify where We are in the the bigger Market cycle as Of right now here in like March 2023 you Know the having is estimated to be Around April 28th 2024 so that would put the current pivot Low which is around 15,500 in November of 2022 uh that puts That about 524 days prior to the next Having so is that the low uh it's yet to Be seen there's a lot of variables that We have this Market cycle that really Weren't as big of an impact on the prior Cycles uh like the NASDAQ really being a Driver of price action in Bitcoin Following that so closely but if that Low holds that'll kind of put us on Track and we've basically got anywhere From midm March to August to really see A big breakout to put us on track close To Prior Market Cycles if that makes Sense yeah that does make sense so do You think Bitcoin is still in a bare Market as of right now we're showing

Signs of a potential breakout like as of Today right that could change but 25 26k That key price level is a major level That if we break above that and stay Above it for a few days odds are we're Going to start to see runs and Retracements to the upside but again the The big caveat to that is right now There's a ton of uncertainty around Inflation interest rates we've had the Contagion of some of the largest crypto Banks going under and the Biden Administration is really not keeping it Quiet the fact that they're really Attacking the crypto industry right now Um so I think this next having is really Bitcoin's time to shine I think what Happens over the next six to nine months Is really where Bitcoin needs to prove That it can fulfill what it was Originally created for interesting so What might change your opinions to make You think that we might continue into a Bull market for Bitcoin and then what Also might happen that might make you Think oh we might not um be headed into Bu Market if that makes any sense what Factors yeah yeah I mean I I guess I'll I'll start by kind of explaining my Methodology and like how I think about Price action and how I think about Mapping the future right so I don't try To make predictions like if price is Going to go up or down what I do is I

Create maps of possibilities I say if The bull market kicks in what does that Look like and if a bare Market kicks in Or if we just stay flat what does that Look like and then I try to weigh the Probabilities all right so step one I Look at the possibility everything that Could happen step two I look at the Probabilities what I think is most Likely to happen and then I create a Plan based on all of those outcomes that Way I don't have regrets or get wiped Out or hurt in any one of those outcomes Right so what does that mean well I Manage like my Capital stack so I've Been very cash heavy the last like six Months and I've been starting to build Back in to my Bitcoin position so if we Go into a bull market I expect that to Look like is 25 26k becomes support and We start to see runs retracements and Extensions to the upside above that Level if we trap and we stay below 25k We could stay in the accumulation range Above 18K support and Below 25k Resistance really until August and still Be on track for a bull market prior to The habing um if something breaks or if Something happens where say the stock Market dumps another 20 30% and it looks Like we're going to have a hard Landing With the fed and interest rates and that Whole macro pitch then that could throw A wrench in the bull case but again I

Think that Bitcoin as of today at least Is on track for another bull market Prior to the having and those are kind Of the key levels that I'm looking for But in Prior Market Cycles we really Didn't have to put so much focus on the Fed and the stock market you know Bitcoin was at times actually trading Completely uncorrelated to the stock Market where since the market high in November of 2021 it's been very very Correlated one thing I would look for And one thing I'm kind of hoping kicks In and I know hope is a four-letter Cussword in trading and investing but One thing that I would like to see Happen is that Bitcoin starts trading With a mind of its own regardless of What the stock market does interesting And this actually Builds on uh what you Were talking about there so what do you Think impacted bitcoin's price the most In 2022 2022 it was very correlated with The NASDAQ right if you overlay I guess You could say the S&P 500 as well but it Was a combination of just frothiness and Market sentiment but the market highs I Remember just all the things that were Just signaling a market top like Elon Pumping Doge on SNL and Mark Cuban Hopping on the Doge train and I remember Anecdotally I I got in an elev And I heard some pre-teen girls bragging About their nft gains and I'm like okay

Wait a minute we've been here before so There were like it was really Market Sentiment that created the top all the Onchain factors were not signaling Parabolic price action yet even the the TA on the the price action wasn't Signaling parabolic blowoff tops like We've seen in Market Cycles it was Actually it was Market sentiment it was Huus it was get rich quickers that that Caused I think that market top and it Was the the laser eyes and the next stop 100K right like when you get a mass Majority of Traders investors and funds And everybody in agreement that an Outcome is inevitable it rarely actually Becomes true because it becomes a Crowded trade so that's what I think Happened is it became a crowded trade And then we we could talk about the FED We could talk about the correlation with The stock market which absolutely had a Play but at the end of the day price Action crypto is driven by market Sentiment public perception and the Confidence that people have in crypto And when things just get too frothy the Market causes everybody pain were you Talking about 2021 there or 2022 I guess For the extended Market of 2022 right The whole Bare Market that we went Through the market obviously topped in 2021 but 2022 was the Fallout from that Gotcha so what do you think has impacted

Bitcoin's price the most so far in 2023 Well if we look back late last year so November 2022 we had a what I call a Capitulation event which was the FTX Fallout and that caused a wash out into The teens for Bitcoin and since then in The first quarter of 2023 we've seen That price stabilize we've seen 18 to 19k be support we've seen 25k become Resistance and that's what I call an Accumulation range when you have price That is basically flat and boring and And for the most part low volume stuck In between support and resistance it's At that time that a lot of people get Bored or disinterested with the market And they either leave crypto or they Lose confidence and that's where price Action builds up momentum for the next Bull market and that's really where We've been in the first quarter of this Year gotcha last part of this uh segment Of questions what do you think will Impact bitcoin's price the most for the Rest of 2023 great question well I guess The narrative is the expectation or Anticipation of a bull market prior to The having which is going to happen in April of 2024 um and then I've been Thinking a lot about the altcoin space And just where we are with that and Every Market cycle there's a narrative That drives alts in 2017 it was icos in 2020 and 2021 it was nfts and Defi and

It's not completely evident if we're Going to have another altcoin season This year and if so what does that look Like you know we've recently seen some Pops in some of the AI cryptos some of Those have already deflated I don't know I'm still searching for that but I think You know with the regulatory pressure That we have right now from the SEC and From people just getting burned so bad And a lot of the this past waves alt Scams I just don't know if capital is Going to come back most recently we've Just seen a flight to bitcoin because of All the issues that we've had with Stable coins nft and Defi and you know The list just goes on and on so I put Bitcoin in kind of a class of its own And then alts I think it's yet to be Seen what if anything will drive those Throughout the rest of the year gotcha Interesting so going to the next segment Which is called Trade Secrets basically I ask about your background and stuff Like that so tell me about your Background or as much as you're Comfortable diving into uh when you were Little what did you want to do when you Grew up yeah so I was a military at I Was I guess blessed with the ability to See cultures from all around the world I Lived in Korea and Iceland and bounced Around the US quite a bit and so I've Always just had a passion for traveling

And culture and I was always really Interested in money every time we'd go To a new country I'd always just be Fascinated by the different types of Paper bills and coins and I'd always Collect it and going into high school I Started reading books like Rich Dad Poor Dad and this was the early 2000s when High-speed internet was just becoming Available for people's homes and so I Got online and started learning about The stock market and when I was a Believe a junior or a senior in the Early 2000s I I got introduced to the Futures markets e many Futures and I Started trading them and started Learning everything I could and buying Courses and going to seminars and I was Just I was hooked I just I knew that's What I wanted to do with my life and so For income and as a job I was working in The the mortgage industry coming out of High school and throughout my college Age years I actually didn't go to College I just started working in Corporate America and so I was trading On the side and working in the mortgage Business and then in 2005 2006 saw the Writing on the wall with the the real Estate market it was just a massive Bubble and I was actually the director Of subprime lending for a major home Builder in the US and I just I didn't Understand how we could get a

19-year-old guy making 10 bucks an hour With $1,000 to his name how I could put Him in a half a million dollar house With nothing down it it just didn't make Any sense and so I started making plans To Pivot into full-time trading and so By the time 2007 came around I found Myself in that position I I left the Mortgage industry and started trading Full-time and was trading and investing Through the the GFC in '08 great Financial crisis and that was just Incredible uh because of the volatility It was a a day Traders dream but but I Saw the the contagion and the Fallout From that and over the coming years After that I just noticed that the Traditional financial markets were Getting overrun with high frequency Algorithms it was becoming harder and Harder for the average Joe to make a Living trading the markets and that's When I found Bitcoin a friend of mine Told me about it in like 2011 and I Looked at it briefly and I said like What is this a penny stock I I don't Know it looks like a scam so I ignored It and then in 2013 When it started to pump again in the Spring I was like maybe there's Something here so went down the Bitcoin Rabbit hole and never came out just uh Went real deep and then started doing YouTube videos on it in 2013 I think I

Was one of the first guys doing like Tutorial videos just trying to explain What Bitcoin was and how it worked and Why it was such a great Market to Actively trade because it was way less Competitive than the Futures markets it Was way more volatile so there was more Opportunity and it was just cool I just Really enjoyed the the whole Cipher Punk Community and just the idea of like a Better form of money sounded like we Were about to go through the biggest Transition in my lifetime at least of Like redefining money and kind of the Rest is history that's a really Interesting backstory thanks for sharing Yeah thanks man so do you trade and Invest in multiple different markets Currently my focus is mostly crypto my Wife manages actively the stock Portfolio Nikki and we also on our team We have a buddy Travis DEET that he was A former hedge fund guy took one of the Best performing hedge funds from about 100 million in assets to over a billion He retired from that and then joined us At the skill incubator and so Nikki and Travis managed my stock portfolio and I Manage the crypto and startup side of Things so pretty active in the the Startup scene as well interesting so how Much of your time effort and capital is Put toward trading versus investing it's A good question so I have five different

Capital buckets um this is how I think About it so I've got bucket number one Which is my cold storage which is every Time we're in a bare Market or what I Think is near the lows I'll just DCA I'll dollar cost average n and I'll put Money into Bitcoin that I put on a Hardware wallet and don't really think About it my only goal with that Capital Bucket is to grow the number of Satoshi Over time which hopefully will increase In dollar value as well Capital bucket Number two is like my cycle trades where I'll also buy some at the lows and I Will hold for anywhere from 6 to 18 Months and then start to scale out During a bull market or when I think Things are parabolic my third Capital Bucket is like swing trades so I I'll Hold a position anywhere from a few days To a couple of months on average maybe Two or three weeks so when we're in a Bull cycle I'm buying dips I'm buying Breakouts I'm being very disciplined With entries and exits and my goal there Is to trade Bitcoin and altcoins with The goal of increasing my Fiat stack so I can build my position sizes and also Pull hard profits out of the crypto Ecosystem and invest in other things Like real estate or startups my next Capital bucket number four is for scalps So it could be the occasional day trade But again that only occurs maybe a few

Times a year then the fifth bucket is For either pre-listing investments in The crypto space or startups which I Really don't do a lot of because the the Time from ideation meaning somebody puts Up a white paper and creates a token to The time that you have access to Liquidity on an exchange that's a really Short time frame so I'm like why would I Take on the added risk of investing Pre-listing when I can just wait a Little bit and find price discovery on An exchange so actually most of the Startup investing I do is outside of the The crypto ecosystem but those are Really the five bucket it's a mixture of Active investing passive investing and Then active trading interesting so you Mentioned swing trading and scalloping Correct yeah do you want to dive into Maybe how you approach that a little bit More do you use technical analysis what Do you look for in a trade stuff like That yeah I would say the most important Thing when it comes to swing trading and Scalping is the TA fundamentals don't Really matter and when you're swinging It's really just volume and price action I come from a world of active day Trading in the Futures markets where I Spent literally thousands of hours like Building trading systems and back Testing and everything from fully Automated to subjective and everything

In between and when it comes to trading Bitcoin and altcoins I keep it very very Simple I use price action volume a Couple of moving average and Fibonacci Tools like retracements and extensions And that's about it keep it very simple I look for the bigger Trends I'm Not In And Out multiple times in a day I prefer To swing trade and the only like Occasional scalp or day trade that I'll Take is if there's massive massive Intraday volatility where there's just a Wash out that's too good to trade or a Parabolic rip that I can fade but for The most part I would say my bread and Butter is Swing trading gotcha you went Into this a little bit but do you want To just dive into your process of Learning how to trade and what that was Like in your early days yeah yeah so in High school I was working in a mortgage Company and I walked by this guy's desk And I saw like what looked like stock Charts and I was like hey Jim what are You doing he's like oh I'm day trading Em mini Futures sit down and watch me And it's like that's weird he's working In a mortgage company but he's trading The stock market that's that's kind of Cool so I sat there and within 20 Minutes he made like two grand and I was Like wait what this is crazy it just Blew my mind and so I was like I don't Know what that is but I'm going to do

That I funded my first account was like $5,000 And I started trading and I remember my First trade was a win it was like two Points on the es which is the S&P 500 Which was like a hundred bucks before Commissions and I was like oh my God man I just made $100 in like a few minutes I'm going to get so stinking rich and Then I lost the five grand in like the Next week or two I was like okay Valuable lesson it's not as easy as it Seems it's actually very competitive and Day trading is very very hard but that Was just a I don't know if it's my Stubbornness or competitiveness but I Just wanted to master that and so yeah I Just I spent as much time as I could Just learning about every technical Indicator and every strategy and again This was the early 2000s so there wasn't A whole lot out there and electronic Trading was fairly new and it was just Interesting talking to some of the guys That were working at trading desks in The 90s when the stock market was on the Fraction system before they went to the The decimal system you know where stocks Actually traded in pennies and hearing Their stories from the old days and how They struggled to transition and compete In the age of digital trading yeah it Was just really really cool being able To to have that experience early on and

Then transition through that time and Then like the GFC and 08 then eventually Just watch the markets get overrun with Algorithms that's really interesting Your Twitter bio says you've traveled to Over 100 countries yeah do you want to Maybe list your top five favorites and Why oh yeah good question and so I lived In Iceland for a couple years so I I'd Put that that up there it's just amazing People beautiful beautiful country um Moving East I'd say Norway Switzerland Just a big mountain guy and Hiking I Love South Africa parts of it are pretty Dangerous but another just beautiful Country southeast Asia Thailand Bali so Many amazing beaches and the food and Big cities and mountains I mean you kind Of get anything down there yeah I think Those are kind of my favorite areas cool Cool let's jump into the next segment Which is the next Bull Run how will you Know if Bitcoin moves into a bull market If we have another Bitcoin bull market Basically what are you looking for that Might give you confidence that it may Have switched into a bull market so for Me it's if we break above the 25 to 30k Zone and stay above there for more than Just a few days anything can happen Where you get like a fake out breakout But if we start seeing runs and Retracements all we have to do is look Back at late 2016 or

2017 and then 2020 to know what that Looks like so to me it's pretty clear if We start getting that I'm just ready to To go gas pedal all the way in if we Don't I'm going to sit on my hands and And just hit the brakes what do you Think might happen after Bitcoin has Moved into a bull market how do you Think things will play out in the months Directly following if we break out into A bull market I expect those runs Retracements higher highs higher lows Volume increasing Market sentiment to Shift from oh my God the crypto space is Dead which is what it sounds like right Now to hey crypto is back and then Eventually the cycle will repeat where It gets overextended overhot the getro Quicker show up and then the market will Reverse the last two Market Cycles we Had over 500 Days from the having to the Market top if that's true that means That we'll see a bull market go well Into 2025 so does that happen it's yet to be Seen nothing's guaranteed but that's What I would expect if we do start to Get the the signs that we're back into a Bull season and do you want to just dive In a little bit to what you were looking For on bitcoin's chart to form all of Your opinions here yeah so the the key Levels again are like 18 to 25 that's The accumulation range we're in now if

18 breaks next stop is 9k I think 26 to 30 snaps next stop is the prior all-time High and then beyond that we can run Extensions well into the mid 100K range If we do have like an extended bull Market that exceeds that high I think 140 to 150 is the the next major Extension level and one of the last Questions here how will you look to try And figure out the timeline of bitcoin's Next Bull Run once the market has Transitioned into that potential bull Run the most important things for me are Just the the prior data that we have the The days from the accumulation breakout To having right which is anywhere from 250 to 400 Days th those are kind of the Major things and then outside of that I Just let price action be a guide I just Watch price action look for the trade Setups that I've back tested and if Something comes to me meaning if it Shows itself and I know I have an edge I'll take it if not I take no action Gotcha what role do you think Bitcoin Plays as an ass that why do you think People are willing to invest in it well This is the question I think people Started asking themselves through Co was What do you mean the US government can Just create $5 trillion do what does That actually mean and what what is the What's the Fallout from that look like And if the government can just create

That five trillion a how does it happen B who lets it happen and what's the the Faith that we have in the dollar right I Think a lot of people people in the non- Crypto space AKA normies I think a lot Of normies started to ask that question Through and after covid and then kind of The second thing is okay we've got some Bank failures happening right now we've Got inflation going through the roof and People are getting squeezed Millennials And younger are going hey I I make a Good income I work really hard but why Can't I afford the average house in my Town or city what happened there and What can I do to build my wealth how can I beat this inflation monster and that's Where Bitcoin comes in at least so far It's proven to just really have a a Great compound annual growth rate it's Outpaced inflation really really well Will that happen into the future not yet To be seen but it's proven itself so far Over the past decade plus to be a great Store of wealth even taking into Consideration that depths of the bare Market adjusted for volatility Bitcoin Is still one of the best performing Assets on the planet so I think people Are waking up to the idea that maybe Fiat isn't the best form of money and Maybe there is a better way to store our Wealth awesome and so do you think Bitcoin's role as an asset will ever

Change if so how do you think people Might change how they view Bitcoin and Why they might think it's valuable yeah I mean I think the layer 2 Solutions are Interesting I think most alts are Garbage but but I like that we have that Competition because this space is Meritocracy it's like let the best ideas Rise and so if Bitcoin continues to Dominate as a form of or as a store of Wealth and then say lightning Network And and maybe other things add to Bitcoin's property as money right the Transfer of value which is really hard When the price keeps going up or when it Keeps going down right the volatility Weakens it a form of money I think that If we can improve on things like the Lightning Network and and get more Adoption there and then over time as Bitcoin's market cap and value grows I Think the volatility will decrease and Not only does that make it a a better Store of wealth but it makes it a more Reliable source of money right because Companies and funds can start to make Moves based on the stability of Bitcoin Which right now we just don't have right You know I think it has quite a ways to To get to that point and again like I Said I'm not a huge fan of most altcoins But I like the fact that there is so Much brain power in the space trying to Solve problems and a lot of them I think

Are solutions looking for a problem but That's okay you know those will pop and Those will die but I think the few alts That do make it will either a make Bitcoin better because it'll force it to Adapt and evolve or it'll take over Different roles or offer different Solutions so I don't know I'm just I'm Bullish on the space as a whole even if I know that 99% of cryptos will die over Time gotcha interesting thank you so Much for all your opinions and your Input and everything that was really Interesting yeah thanks BJ this was fun Man yeah so I think that's about it Thanks so much for coming on yeah Appreciate it thanks for tuning in to Crypto trading Secrets presented by coin Telegraph we'll catch you next Time N