China to INVADE Taiwan in 2024?! All You Need To Know!

On the 13th of January the Taiwanese People voted for war presidential Election in Taiwan voters in Taiwan in Taiwan's presidential elections won Taiwan's presidential election taiwan's Presidential election has been described As a choice between War and Peace earlier this month taiwan's Presidential elections ended in a Victory for vice president William lie According to the opposition lie is and I Quote a Die Hard independent supporter Who will bring Taiwan closer to conflict With China but don't take it from them Beijing called lie a dangerous Separatist and the election a and I Quote choice between War and Peace but The thing is a vote for Li was a vote For the status quo he pledged to pick up Where his boss leaves off and not move The fiture around too much now if that's The casee then does Beijing think think That Taiwan has been on a war path for The last eight years and with the Election behind us is the Taiwan fed Over or do we need to market sell our Tsmc bags before it's too late let's Investigate now if you've seen any of Our previous videos touching on Taiwan You may remember that we made a Circumstantial case for military Conflict in the Taiwan stet becoming More likely but as we emphasized in that Video we do not suggest that war is

About to break out rather that the Chances of War seem to be drifting Further from zero and that's something That should never be overlooked anywhere The fact is that Beijing and Washington Are locked into a pattern of tit fortat Escalation where each feels compelled to Reciprocate in kind because they can't Afford to appear weak neither thinks That they are the aggressor instead that Each believes they only reacting to the Others provocations and caught in the Middle of all of this is Taiwan the Country of Taiwan has spent its entire History walking a tight rope between two Adversarial superpowers any sudden Movements and things could get ugly fast That's why taiwan's presidential Elections are always a source of Ang for Basically anyone paying attention but as It turns out after walking a tight RPP For 70 years You develop a pretty good balance Taiwan Status quo is complex and precarious Geopolitically speaking it's been out a Rough hand but the island is at peace it Emerged from a 38-year military Dictatorship to become one of East Asia's most successful liberal Democracies and managed to monopolize The global semiconductor trade in the Process Taiwan is in all but a name a Sovereign nation state that's why why For so many foreign observers the

Question of dour or legal Independence Is a peral Hot Topic especially when the Elections roll around if Taiwan already Walks and talks like an independent Country then why shouldn't it stand all And declare itself so well it's Complicated to answer that question you Have to understand the perspective of The People's Republic of China which Sees Taiwan as a province of its own Gone Rogue the the People's Republic of China or PRC was born in 1949 after the Chinese Communist Party defeated the USB Cing Tang or kmt in the Chinese Civil War the kmt fled to the island of Taiwan And declared itself to be the legitimate Government of China under the name the Republic of China or Roc this is a bit like if America had a Civil war and ended with the Confederacy Fleeing to Puerto Rico and declaring Itself to be the real America Washington Probably wouldn't have taken it sitting Down right countries do tend to draw red Lines over territorial claims well fast Forward to the 2020s and PC hasn't Forgotten its Renegade Province as is Normally the case with matters of Territory the government still considers Taiwan to be a core interest meaning It's something worth going to war over If necessary Yes the year 1964 has begun and to Commemorate the new year we ask some

Young people how they think the future Will look in 60 years time what will the World be like in the year 2024 there'll be so many people that They have to have an overflow into the Sea I think whenever we have a question We'll just ask a computer and it will Tell us the answer uh everyone will have Their own flying car and they'll just be Flying around all over the place or I May be a funeral of a Computer I don't think there'll be Politicians or anything like that I Think there'll be monkeys and they'll be In charge yes I think the coin Bureau Deals page uh will be the place where All the best deals in crypto can be Found no doubt about it it'll be Absolutely uh fantastic um cuz there'll Be morees for the diseases and not so Many people will get sick anyone who's Got any sense will store their money on Their own Hardware device where no one Will be able to get it and they'll use The coin Bureau deals page to get the Best discounts on those devices uh all Dogs and cats will probably be robots by Then and uh and you won't have to take Them to the vet or or or anything really I think when you sign up to an exchange On the coin Bureau deals page you'll get Discounts on trading fees of up to 60% It'll be lovely I expect they will set Aside parts of the country solely for

Recreation one day the coin Bureau deals Pay page will offer up to $50,000 in signup bonuses on some of the Best cryptocurrency exchanges I can't Wait I really can't it'll be it'll be Splendid so there you have it the year 2024 is going to be quite incredible by All accounts the Futures bright the Futures coin bureau there's nothing you Can do to stop it but that's not to say That things haven't changed the PRC Hasn't moved on but the RSC certainly Has across the street whole generations Of people have come and gone and with Them ties of kinds to the mainland have Faded this is born out in decades of Surveys by the Taiwan election study Center which ask Islanders about their National identity check this out in 1992 When these surveys began around 46% of Respondents said that they were both Chinese and Taiwanese 25% said they were Chinese and just 18% responded simply Taiwanese but by the 2020s Islanders Were singing a very different tune in 2023 the proportion who said they were Both Chinese and Taiwanese fell to 30% And just 2.5% of respondents describ Themselves as Chinese that's a minus 10x On Chinese identity in three Decades bullish for Taiwanese Nationalist though according to to a Separate poll by Pew 67% of respondents Now identify themselves as Taiwanese now

The cause of this trend is varied and Complex but perhaps most conspicuous Among them is P's treatment of Hong Kong In recent years an entire generation of Taiwanese voters grew up watching the Spectacle of Chinese authorities trying To Stamp Out anti-government protests Next door as it turns out the site of The PRC strong arming Hong Kong Kong Over what was a pretty tame social Movement didn't Inspire feelings of Chinese Oneness in neighboring Taiwan The RSC spent more than half of its History as a military dictatorship and Only had Direct presidential elections Since 1996 so it's not a place where democracy Is taken for granted so it's no wonder Then that a democratic Progressive Party Or DPP president was elected for the Third time in a row the DPP is the Anthesis of beijing's one China policy The incumbent president tying when swept Into power in 2016 and won a landslide Reelection in 2020 on a series of Pledges to defend taiwan's territory Democracy and right to Self-determination she pledged to Increase defense spending extend Military conscription and has been Promoting the Democratic Taiwan brand Around around the world she also sought Closer relationships with governments Inside America's sphere of influence

Including Japan and a number of Southeast Asian Countries now if none of this sounds Like the behavior of a mere province in The PLC well no kidding tying wen's Policies marked the end of 24 years of Relatively closer ties with Beijing you See in 1992 the caling Tang government Had met with the PRC and agreed that There is only one China while tacitly Agreeing to disagree over what this Meant but with the election of tying W In 2016 the DPP went back on this Agreement in response China cut all of Its formal Communications with Taiwan And has given it the cold shoulder ever Since at this point you could be Forgiven for thinking that the DPP is a Separatist movement with the goal of Formally declaring Taiwan as an Independent nation state but this is not The case in fact none of taiwan's major Political parties call for Independence despite the kmt's tough Talk about a vote for the DPP being a Vote for war and William Li being a DieHard independent supporter the 2024 Election showed that the opposition Parties have capitulated to a position Pretty similar to the dpps of course the DPP and kmt as well as the more minor TPP or Taiwanese people party are bound To talk up their differences but when it Comes to actual policy none of them

Propose anything that would really upset The status quo now this is not to say That there isn't support for Independence in Taiwan on the contrary a 2023 poll by the Taiwan public opinion Foundation found that just shy of half Of all respondents are in favor of Independence the poll showed that Independence was the most Desir outcome For Taiwan in every city and county on The island ban less than a third of Respondents supported maintaining the Status quo and fewer than 12% wanted Reunification with China so it seems to Us that if maintaining the status quo Comes first in taiwan's politics it's Probably just because it's a weak form Of Independence and the best thing that The island can get for now given the Prc's Intimidation speaking of which Beijing Stands accused of trying to pressure Taiwan with a variety of underhand Tactics these range from too close to Comfort military exercises in taiwan's Vicinity to poaching the small number of Foreign governments that Taiwan can Officially call friends and even the Physical sabotage of taiwan's Communication Infrastructure now not everyone is as Shaken over Chinese military training as Western reporting might have you believe According to Brian h a taipe based

Journalist and critic of both China and The US Chinese military drills and I Quote are not usually perceived as a Threat in Taiwan he argues that they and I quote occur with such frequency nearly Daily that it just becomes background Noise on the other hand Beijing is very Candid about its ambitious plans for Reunification and has been known to make Statements that can only be described as Threatening for example the day before Taiwan's 2024 elections China's Army Promised to and I quote firmly Crush Taiwan's Independence attempts of all Forms and when it comes to Foreign Relations China's diplomats have been Peeling away taiwan's small band of Friends one by one two days after the 2024 elections the Pacific island of Nuru flipped alliances with the PRC and Announced it would cease and I quote Official exchanges with Taiwan nauru was One of taiwan's last remaining Diplomatic allies and is now the 10th Foreign government to have switched Sides from tape to Beijing since tyang Wang was elected in 2016 there are more well documented Sides to China's efforts to isolate and Pressure Taiwan but one underreported Angle is the mysterious severing of Undersee internet cables around the Island In February 2023 taiwan's outlying Matsu

Island was left without internet service For over 2 months as the undersea cables It depended on were cut taiwan's National Communication Commission claims That two ships flying Chinese flags were Responsible and says that this was the 27th such incident of cable cutting in The Last 5 Years this is just a small Example to show that the PRC is by no Means passively hoping that Taiwan will Fall back in its lap it is actively Running overt and covert operations for This purpose but crucially huff and puff As it might Beijing could not dissuade Taiwanese voters from returning for a Third DPP presidency so how have the Chinese taken the result well if early Indications are anything to go by it Seems like Beijing has piped down since The election so far the Pi's reaction Has been pretty chill compared to Previous episodes such as the visit of The US House speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan or the meeting between Pelosi's Successor and president taing Wen in the Us both of which were considered on the Mainland to be egregious Provocations China's muted response was In evidence in state media 2 days after Taiwan's elections excerpts of a 2022 Speech by President X ping were Reprinted urging members of the Chinese Communist party to do better at winning The hearts and minds of the Taiwanese

People and to and I quote develop and Strengthen the Patriotic pro-unification Forces in Taiwan and oppose the Separatist acts of the Taiwan Independence now make of that what you Will but it doesn't sound to us like a Government preparing for an invasion as One senior China analyst with the typ Based International crisis group put it And I quote it's a pretty positive start To the period they don't want to tear up The gains made in improving us China Relations so what about the United States when asked to comment on the Outcome of the taiwan's election last Week US President Joe Biden decided to Answer a different question instead he Simply said and I quote we do not Support Independence this non-sequitor Is only the latest addition to his Record of confused statements on Taiwan On at least four separate occasions he's Reference the United States commitment To defend taiwan's military when no such Commitment exists each time the White House has Shrugged it off and insisted That the United States long-standing Policy of strategic ambiguity which Includes no military commitment to Taiwan has not changed Biden's rhetoric About president jiing is no more Encouraging just a few weeks ago Biden Told reporters that during the Obama Administration he had met with d xia

Ping a Chinese leader who died in 1997 it was of course xiin ping that Biden had met when Biden does get his Name right he tends to describe X as and I quote a thug and I quote Dictator the most recent episode of name Calling was last November when Biden Dismissed G as a dictator after speaking With him for 4 hours at a critical us China Summit in San Francisco by all Accounts this Summit had otherwise been A success producing a list of agreements Towards repairing the two powers for Relationships China and the United States agreed to resume military to Military communication to work together To stem the flow of fenel into the US And also discussed taiwan's elections Among other things as for G his comments Made quite a contrast and I quote planet Earth is big enough for the two Countries to succeed and one country's Success is an opportunity for another he Said and I quote for two large countries Like China and the United States turning Their back on each other is not an Option it's unrealistic for one side to Remodel the other and conflict and Confrontation has unbearable Consequences for both sides but back to To Biden what are we to make of his Strategic confusion sure the Biden White House has no shortage of lucid staff Ready to brush off the president's

Apparent gaffs but at the end of the day It's Joe Biden who has his finger on the Red button the world was reminded of This when he gave the order to start Bombing Yemen earlier this month without Asking Congress to paraphrase his Comments after the attacks began will it Work no are we going to keep bombing Them yes now unless Biden pops his clogs Before this year's presidential Elections Democratic voters will most Likely be asked to vote for another four Years of him as commander-in-chief the Republican alternative is almost certain To be Donald Trump although he has been Charged with a laundry list of 91 Felonies by the United States federal And state governments it doesn't look Like this will be an obstacle of his Running for president presidency again On the contrary it seems that this has Only strengthened the resolve of his Supporters in the Republican party and Also throughout the country so when it Comes to Trump's foreign policy it's Important to not confuse his tough talk On China with a real and hawkish policy Although it's a mixed bag Trump's Foreign policy is overall closer to Isolationism and Taiwan is a prime Example publicly Trump has never made The kind of comment about defending Taiwan's military that Biden has become Known for and privately he reportedly

Told one Republican senator in 2019 that If the pii was to invade Taiwan and I Quote there isn't a thing we can Do about it make of that what you will But we reckon that out of the two Candidates Biden might be more of a wild Card when it comes to Taiwan if Trump is Elected at least Taiwan won't have to Wonder if the US would intervene in the Event of an invasion now with that out Of the way we Contin to the question on Everyone's mind what does all that mean For my Portfolio well numbero sideways maybe Look it's been just over a week since Taiwan's elections and William lie won't Be president until May of course Anything could happen between now and Then but based on the information Available at the moment we don't think It's time to sound the alarm and about That war narrative pedal by the PRC and The kmt before the election voting for The same party that has been in Government for the last 8 years is it Going to bring Taiwan closer to War I Mean I guess it's true in the same way That Bitcoin going from 41k to 42k is Going to bring me closer to a Lamborghini it's not wrong it's just Drastic well that's all for today's Video If you learned something new drop A thumbs up to help more people see this If if you think we miss anything

Important or you have a different view Let us know in the comments and if you Haven't already now is the perfect Opportunity to subscribe to the channel While you're at it ding the Bell icon so That you can catch the coin Bure videos When they're fresh out of the oven as Always thank you for watching and I'll See you next time this is Jessica Signing [Music] Off

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