We're in a very interesting environment And it's caused by monetary instability Around the world we see what happened Because of covid we have to get this Thing under control and if by the end of The year we stabilize around 0% Year-over-year growth this line will Drop toward 2 to 3% which as you can see We've only seen once it was in the 90s And uh you know after after that all Hell broke loose around the world in an Unbelievable turn of events for Bitcoin Bitcoin's biggest seller just flipped to A buyer grayscales Bitcoin ETF gbtc sees Positive inflows for the first time in Like 80ish days see for yourself look at This this is when the ETFs launched this Is almost 80 Days Later flipping bullish We're in a very interesting environment And it's caused by monetary in stability Around the world of course in Emerging Markets anyone with a connection to the Internet now pretty much can establish Or buy an insurance policy in the form Of Bitcoin so understand that Bitcoin Almost doubled in one quarter going from About $40,000 to just over $70,000 because of the ETF by pressure We saw happen net Bitcoin ETF flows have Been largely positive we know that Grayscale the one in blue here has only Been selling Bitcoin rallied from $40,000 to $70,000 despite the immense Selling we saw from grayscale every
Other ETF has seen net inflows grayscale Has just been seeing outflows that is Until today after a prolonged period of Continuous outflows grayscale's Bitcoin Trust exchange traded fund ETF recorded Its first day of net positive inflow According to preliminary data from Faride on May 3rd grayscales Bitcoin Trust gbtc witnessed 63 million in net Inflows this positive momentum comes After an approximately 17.5 billion in Outflows since the launch of the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11th so Bitcoin Went from under $40,000 to over $7,000 because of net positive inflows This is the data in spite of grayscale Selling billions and billions of Bitcoin Until today so what happens when we see Every ETF start to increase its Bitcoin Holdings I'll tell you we're going to See net inflows rapidly increasing a lot Harder than this bitcoin's biggest Seller just turned into a buyer so while It is definitely still possible Bitcoin Falls to a lower low sometime in the Next month Bitcoin could hit 52,000 53,000 54,000 somewhere in this range That is definitely still possible the More time that passes the more likely Bitcoin eventually breaks up I think Once Bitcoin clears $70,000 once it's clear that Bitcoin is Above $770,000 and pushing up against Alltime highs maybe even a little bit
Above all-time highs we're going to see A Renewed interest in Bitcoin ETF Inflows we're going to see the total Number of Bitcoin that these ETFs hold Really start to increase and then Probably again once Bitcoin breaks $100,000 once that happens all bets are Off all hell is going to break loose Particularly because Bitcoin and crypto It's not just confined to America these Are Global assets there's kids in Bangladesh buying coins and of ETF Specifically I mean they're launching Bitcoin and ethereum spot Bitcoin ETFs All over the world Hong Kong most Recently but plenty of others and while Their markets are not as large as America 1 billion here another billion There another couple billion here and There this is significant for price but Like I said guys we could see Bitcoin Fall to 55k 54k 52k but given enough Time I think it breaks up in a big way Guys don't be like Greg volatility Equals opportunity look at this tweet Look at when it was written I wish I Kept my 1,700 Bitcoin I bought at 6 Cents instead of selling them at 30 Cents now that they're $8 and obviously That was only the beginning Kathy Wood Is predicting Bitcoin hits $1 million Over the next 5 years now that we are Post Bitcoin having Kathy and AR invest Give their updated Bitcoin investment
Thesis this is the most updated Bitcoin Investment thesis out there right now it Is incredibly beneficial to you as a Bitcoin holder that you watch this that You listen to her thesis smash the like Button subscribe to altcoin daily for Daily crypto updates Bitcoin gets to 1 Million because of this listen to Kathy Wood and Arin vest this is their updated Bitcoin thesis from a price action Standpoint the the Bitcoin having tends To coincide with bull markets uh so Bitcoin's now trading at at roughly $60,000 and it's gone through a pretty Nice reset after making all-time highs In March and so we like to look at just Healthy resets healthy liquidations on On the Longs especially during a a bull Market and we've seen a 22% draw down From the all-time highs which tends to Coincide with what we've seen in Previous bull markets as kind of local Uh Corrections regarding bitcoin's Predictable monetary policy it really is One of the primary reasons why we have Such high conviction in Bitcoin and why We have had it over the years uh and We've really taken a monetary lens on Assessing the potential for Bitcoin uh Versus that software technological lens And that really comes down to bitcoin's Monetary policy uh so Kathy you know I've learned a lot from you just on Monetary history monetary economics
Maybe you can sort of put that monetary Hat on and really highlight the sharp Contrast with bitcoin's policy versus You know Central Bank policy makers that You know can adjust the supply growth Idiosyncratically at will absolutely um This having chart is you can see the Discipline here it's been mathematically Metered and actually uh we did a Bitcoin Brainstorm with uh miners this monetary Policy basically was written in five Lines of code I did not know that until We did that Bitcoin brainstorm it is so Elegant so simple so straightforward in Contrast take a look at this this is M2 Growth and it's a four year annualized Percent change so from this past march To March four years ago what is the Monetary growth rate at an annual rate That would be the last data point here Which is black dash line so that rate is About 8% and uh actually probably it's closer To 6% this is there's a lot of data on On uh this chart but take a look at the Four-year growth rate of M2 and you can See it's all over the place you can see In the 60s and 70s it moved toward Double digits and we ended up with Double digit inflation in the late 70s Early 80s uh it took a while to get There and uh it seemed to be very sticky And then after chairman vulker came onto The scene I think that was 197 9 he said
We have to get this thing under control And he started choking money supply and Uh and that momentum actually continued Into the mid90s and then in the mid90s It was very interesting because it's Somewhat similar to today in the mid90s There was a domino effect of currency Devaluations around the world our Monetary policy was propag ating Throughout the world because it is the World's Reserve asset and the first Devaluation actually was Mexico um and It was a big one I remember it very Clearly because we were involved with Mexican stocks uh and then a few years Later uh we had the Asian domino effect I think the tiot devalued in uh 1997 and then uh the rest of Asia Currencies devalued we had the Russian Default in uh 1998 and then we had long-term capital Falling apart monetary policy uh Propagates through the system and when It's so Unpredictable it leads to all kinds of Excesses and uh and so what do we have Now where we see what happened because Of covid that drove the four-year Annualized growth in M2 up to 12% and then now we've had a Very sharp deceleration unlike the 70s 60s and 70s where there was sort of an Acceleration um at least in in a the Sense of a trend and a stabilization
Near double digits here we had U money Thrown at the system uh to prevent an Outright depression and uh if by the end Of the year we stabilize around 0% Year-over-year growth uh that's Year-over-year this line will drop Toward 2 to 3% which as you can see We've only seen once it was in the 90s And uh you know after that uh you know All hell broke loose around the world it Is interesting to note that the Devaluations there are many devaluations Taking place place in the rest of the World uh today I've mentioned in the Past Egypt devalued by 40% in February Or March the Nigerian era is down 50 to 60% in in the last nine months we're Seeing the Indonesian rupia uh devaluing At an accelerated rate and in Latin America of course Argentina basically Recognized that the black Market had it Right that it's uh its currency at least Publicly stated was about really about 50% of that rate in the black market and That was correct so we're in a very Interesting environment and it's caused By monetary instability around the world Of course in Emerging Markets anyone With a connection to the internet now Pretty much can establish or buy a Insurance policy in the form of Bitcoin Which uh just flipping back to the Having in this purple line doesn't look Anything like the volatility you see in
Monetary policy here in the United States and around the world and of Course it's controlled by human beings When we went off the gold exchange Standard in uh and closed the gold Window in the United States in 1971 monetary policy just became Unhinged and it has been unhinged ever Since although human beings have tried To contain contain the inflationary Ramifications and they take it too far Both ways and right now we think they're Taking it too far on the downside
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