Cardano Outlook

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the crypto verse today we're going To talk about cardano and its native Token Ada if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and check out The sale on into the crypto virus Premium at into the Let's go ahead and jump in now my goal In these videos is to try and provide as Unbiased of a view as I can I am not Always successful in that goal okay I Also like to do these videos Occasionally just to keep us updated on Where Ada likely is within the market Cycle okay now as before we get too deep Into this video because we're going to Talk a lot about a lot of stuff in this Video We're going to talk about the Ada USD Evaluation the Ada Bitcoin valuation the Ada ether evaluation we're going to look At the ROI after the cycle Peak to the Low we're going to look out at the year To date Roi we're going to look at the Price drawdown from the all-time high We're going to look at a lot of things Okay so before we get into that one of The reasons why I think it's worthwhile To provide updates is because you know Ada is is one of those coins that back In 2018 I bought here thought I was a genius Watch it drop

Buying Watched it come up here thought I was a Genius again only for it to eventually Put in new gloves right and and it was This brutal process That continued to teach me a lot about How the altcoin market behaves in in the Bear Market years and in the prehabbing Years okay Because what I saw happen back over here Is I saw a lot of all coins put in new Lows even when Bitcoin didn't you know I Mean like the low that ADA had back over Here in December 2018 was you know what Like just around two just below three Cents and over here it actually went Below two cents which again I mean it Might not might not sound like a lot but When you actually measure from this Wick Here all the way down I mean that still Is another 37 drop and if you're not Prepared for those types of moves in the Altcoin market can of course take you by Surprise so I've learned a lot of Lessons in the past and my goal has been To try to communicate those so that People are aware that hey you know this Is how the altcoin market typically Behaves During the pre-halving year right like It does not always behave how you might Expect even if Bitcoin goes up a lot you Should not necessarily expect the Altcoin market to hold that well during

The prehabbing year and sometimes even The early phase of the having year So a couple of last videos we've talked About you know one was of course Searching for a cycle bottom I and again We looked at the Ada Bitcoin valuation Uh this was only back at you know at 2 000 stats and you know we talked Generally about Um sorry like a bug just got on my leg Um we talked generally about how Ada Bitcoin would likely drop to around 800 Satoshi's right we've talked a lot about This 800 800 SATs by the summer of 23 But eventually it would likely head on Down to 400 satoshi's and we clarified This in this video over here when we Finally hit around 800 sets I think we Went to like about 850 or so And one of the things I said was that we Likely will spend some time in this Region before ultimately going down to Closer to 400 Associates now I know a Lot of people don't like to hear that But I will remind people I mean when we Were over here at 2000 satoshi's a lot Of people didn't want to hear that we Were going to 800 sets and then now that You know now that we went to 800 sets of Course a lot of people don't really want To hear that we might go to 400 stats But again I've seen what happens to the Altcoin market does it have to repeat Like does it have to no it doesn't this

Is just my view and it's what I've Experienced and so I will continue to Sort of follow this blueprint until it Clearly deviates at this point I don't Think there is any clear deviation right The other thing that I talked about in This video as well was looking at the Ada ether valuation and I was actually Bullish a few about a month ago on the Ada ether evaluation not not in terms of Thinking that it's going to go to new Highs but just in the terms of you know It's likely going to get some type of Mean reversion here in the next few Weeks so let's provide an update on all Of that and see where we generally are Okay So I'd like to first start with the Ada Bitcoin valuation so I mean you can see In general after going down to this 800 Satoshi level more or less I think the Low was actually slightly above 800 sets So let me get it right uh if I don't I'm Sure some someone's gonna say it so uh It looks like the low so far has been About 851 SATs we we put in sort of a Local double bottom here at 868 SATs and Now it's bounced back up now it has been Moving back up to this bull market Support band where it's been rejected at Many times now there was a bounce back Over here in in in 2018 where it in fact Went Um all the way back up to 2000 satoshi's

So I suppose that that remains to be Seen if we could accomplish something Like that but I think the more likely Outcome is ultimately to get rejected by The bull Mark sport band now we will see Of course what happens sometimes it can Pop above it in the short term only for It to uh just fade back down Now We've had this chart drawn for a long Time and we will ultimately see if we Come down to these levels in the third Quarter of this year we're currently in The third quarter it is July and and the Reason why I've had this on here is Because we know that back over here we Came back down to these levels in August Of 2019 and we do know that crypto was Very cyclical so in terms of you know Looking at this video and and in terms Of the idea of Um spending some time in this region That has played out right like we Bounced back up to around 1200 SATs Right we bounce back up but we still Haven't really gone anywhere Could easily spend a bit more time in This region right like it doesn't have To play out overnight we could push Higher before going lower a lot of Things are possible but I do think the Most likely eventual outcome eventually Is that we do see 400 cents okay Again I know it's not a popular view but

Again 800 South wasn't a popular View And we were at 2000 cents and and then We still made it there so we'll see if This actually plays out now again I mean You can see that this trend line has Been sort of connecting the dots for a Long time and I know I know you could Use this and I knew that we were going To get to this point whenever we uh Talked about going to 800 sets this Summer we talked about this idea of you Know when we get down here you know we Could bounce off of this trend line a Few times and again maybe some people Would look at this and say we hold it Um you know maybe if you want to take The uh the glass half Have full approach you say that we're in Some type of um Macro higher lows and lower highs Structure right if you want to take the Uh The um the high you know sort of the Glass half half full approach but I I Still think there is at least some Reason to be concerned as liquidity Slowly Flows out of the cryptoverse okay so at Least in the short term I think we can Say that our general expectations of Spending some time between the 800 to 1200 Satoshi range this summer has Transpired right that has transpired we Also said though that there should

Likely be some type of mean reversion on The Ada ether valuation so the idea Is that while you know Ada has gotten Wrecked on its ether pair and one of the Concerning things here is that you can And we talked about this in this video a Month ago was that it looks like it Might be a bleeder now that doesn't mean That it always has to be one but to some Degree Ada has something to prove against eth Not the other way around because Ada has Been bleeding against ethereum basically Since 2017 I mean these are just lower Highs and lower lows but in terms of a Local move we talked about how we should See some type of mean reversion and we Are getting that right I mean we can see That ADA ether has popped up a little Bit here do note that it can I mean as You can see right it can spend a lot of Time down here sometimes you get like Sort of a low and then a lower low and Then it bounces back up so you could see It fade back down before before getting Another sustained move back up to the Upside but this is something that I Think is worthwhile to consider is that Hey you know the a to Ether evaluation Seems to be putting in these lows and It hasn't necessarily convincingly taken Out this trend of lower highs and lower Lows now a lot of people I know it's going to upset a lot of

People but I don't control what the Charts say right like I just want to Show you what they say and it's always Possible that you know that the trend Changes right I'm not trying to say that It can't change but again in this Situation at this time Ada is the one That has to prove something here Against these because it is still Putting in lower highs and lower lows Short term we have seen at least a mean Reversion trade back up to the upside And you know I don't know exactly where The bull market is but you can see that It's it's basically right where we just Got that that Wick to right we had that Wick right up again the the bull market Support band can often guide things down Until we until we muster up the the Courage to break above it and usually That doesn't happen in a sustained way Until liquidity is is flowing back into Uh some of these riskier Assets Now I do Want to talk about the Ada USD Evaluation that's probably what most People are here to talk about Or want to listen to and what's Interesting is if you actually look Before we get into the nitty-gritty on The weekly time frame if you look at say Like the monthly hikanashi candles There's a really interesting Trend here So what you'll see is that you have sort Of your bear Market year right you you

Have sort of a a pump that gets everyone To think that you know everything's over And that everything is going to go back Up again only for it to fade in the Second half of the prehabbing year and We talked about this at length that this Is going to likely happen for a lot of All coins right like you know this this Rally gets faded and Ada has in fact Gone and put in new lows you know since Then you know it went down to a to a new Low over here and that's what it did Last cycle too and you can see in in 2019 we we basically saw red monthly High kanashi candles until December we Rallied for a couple of months and into Uh into the recession of course you Might call that a Black Swan but the Counterpoint is that we did have an Inverted yield curve in 2019 and then we Had a recession in 2020. inverted yield Curves don't tell you why you go into a Recession they tell you the economy is Sick and all it takes is one more you Know all it takes is you know one event Really to kick you into a recession if The economy is sick and I I think Arguably that's one of the one of the Things that you can look back up here Again we had an inverted yo curve in 2019 and and you know the um Things weren't really looking that that Rosy at the time but once you had this This major event over here in early 2020

It caused the FED to to print a lot of Money and of course when they when they Put a lot of money that goes into Riskier assets right like all coins okay And you saw the altcoin market explode To the upside So it's interesting because you you kind Of get this you have your main bear Market you have sort of your your Secondary leg down and then you kind of Have your final drop and then The off season that you want finally Came right Bear Market year Sort of the secondary fade maybe maybe Eventually we see things rally into a Recession Um and then ultimately put in their Final lows and then take off from there But I wanna I wanna look at this more so On the weekly time frame and we're going To go back to normal candles here so we Can take a closer look at what's going On here in the short term so if you look Here at the 20 week estimate the 21 week EMA you can see that a to USD has it put In a new low and then it rallied back up But at this point we have not had any Weekly closes above either the 20-week Estimate or the 21 weekma and although That range is now from around 33 to 34 Cents really I guess you could say about 0.337 to 0.347 so you would you'd really Want to see weekly closes above that to

Multiple weekly closes above that to Convincingly start to break the trend But at this point that has not yet Manifested and I mean again you can kind Of see there's a lot of similarities Right between this trend over here and What happened right here right you had In 2019 Ada USC had its first pump up And then it had a second pump And then It fell below the bull market support Band about halfway through the year and Then once it got below it it just faded It until December You had Wix back up to the 20 week but They all they they were just faded Similar thing here right you have one Pump you have your secondary pump and And we fell below the bull Mark sport Band we have gone back up to it but at Least at this point it just continues to Sort of be a fade okay we'll see if it We'll see if it turns into anything Different but at this point it really Hasn't I mean it it still is below the 20 week Um A lot of there's a lot of similarities Okay And this last cycle was probably the Hardest part so the second half of 2019 Was probably the hardest part of the Cycle because It wasn't very exciting I it was just

Like you just watched the altcoin market Slowly bleed out right and it you know There were certainly a lot of pumps I Mean no shortage of pumps we had tons of Them right I mean this one right here Was 41 you know I mean this one right Here was 40 as well right we had a lot Of pumps like that and they ultimately Just still got faded like look zoom in Here look look at how the look at how The market works right like it it goes Up for a while and then you just get one Candle to take you down it goes up for a While and then you just get one candle To take you down and and we saw that Happen in a lot of all coins and you see That happen today right like you you get A lot of candles that take you up I mean It only takes one candle to take you Know to completely wipe away all of this So that's what we saw last cycle That's what I I warned a lot about and You know it's it's one of those things That you know once you live through it It kind of gives you a different Perspective on the market it's it's kind Of it's the reason why you know back in The summer of 2022 You know there were a lot of cause for All Season back then by a lot of people You know and a lot of calls that the Lows were in by a lot of people I was Like well you know I used to think that Last cycle and boy was I wrong and we

Saw the market capitulate to new lows And even then it did not Mark the low For Ada because we saw it rally and then Fade And so far right I mean like I know it Was not a popular view to talk about This but so far it hasn't been any Different right I mean we saw Ada put in A low into 2022 just like it did in 2018. we saw it pump In 2023 just like it did here in 2019 You got two two tops here just like we Got over here We go below the bull market sport band Right here just like it did right here It has played out almost identically Right almost identically as last cycle And this was one of the reasons why you Know in in the summer of 2022 it was Really hard for me to be that bullish on These stuff because I'm like well you Know historically I know all coins can Put in new lows even if Bitcoin doesn't Right and imagine if Bitcoin does like Then where does it leave the altcoin Market remember Ada Bitcoin did not Bottom last cycle Until Q3 of 2019 and even then Ada Bitcoin held those lows really for half A year before before trending back up At this point We haven't even convincingly found a Level where Ada Bitcoin is holding those Lows now is there a possibility that

This ends up being below it's possible But again when you know historically Well historically right I mean we have We have two things to compare to here We have you know just when it launched When we're around 400 stats and we have Over here and we're at 400 South I mean Back over here I guess we were lower we Were below 300 South So This was always going to be an area that ADA Bitcoin was going to bounce and Again we we talked about it in this Video that we would likely see it bounce In this range after calling for a Capitulation to 800 SATs by the summer Of 23. so At this point there has not been a Deviation between our prior expectations And what cardano has done right go to 800 SATs approximately bounce around for A while eventually capitulate the 400 Sets hasn't happened yet it doesn't mean It won't again the capitulation of 400 SATs in 2019 didn't occur at the final Drop the final low didn't occur until August So just I mean it again last cycle it Took a long period of time to get there This cycle is arguing even there's Arguably have been even more excess Liquidity and so It really isn't it really isn't that Different I mean it really is a lot of

The same So this is where we are right now one Way to visualize this and I think it's a Really interesting thing look at The year-to-date Roi of cardano okay so We're at the dash screen line you have Five prior years to compare it to five Now which one looks the most similar to This year It's not 2021 is it it's not 2020 or 2021 at all so why don't we take those Off it's not 20 20. it's not 2021. Is it 2018 no Is it 2019 or 2022 sorry is it 2022 no And two remain 2023 and 2019. at this Point in 2019 The year-to-day ROI Veda was very Similar to what it is today you're Talking about 1.25 x off the early open Versus 1.46 x off the yearly open In 2023 or sorry in 2019 remember Ada Closed the year 20 below its yearly open that's where it Closed the year But so by the end of the year it closed At 20 below the yearly open even though It went up more than 2X Off the yearly open and it went up you Know 4X maybe like three to four x if You take it from the actual low back in December 2018. but if you just look from The yearly open it went up 2.25 X Whereas this time it only went up about 1.82 X now the yearly open for Ada

Was it 20.246 To give you an example of what 10 below The yearly open would put you at it puts You about 0.219 so right around 20 cents Or so So I think that's what you have to look At does does this just follow the Blueprint of 2019 It's probably going to deviate some Right like maybe it maybe it pops out Over here and then comes down or maybe It comes down here and then pops back up But all in all I mean you know you can See that these trend line or these uh These the year-to-day performance in 2019 and 2023 they've crossed several Times right they were they were the same At the beginning of the year they were The same about three months in they were The same about four months in they've Been the same now about six to seven Months in we're probably gonna see them Be the same nine months in in 12 months In or at least you know close close to Each other It's really interesting when you look at It from a year-to-date Roi perspective Now if you measure it from the peak Until the final low we know the final Low for Ada came over here in 2020. so About 800 days we're currently Or approaching 700 days so I mean if it Wants to repeat what it did last cycle You're still talking about three to four

Months of this okay Now this does look like diminishing Waltzes as a function of time so Cardano's performance from the peak last Cycle was worse than it has been this Cycle basically every step of the way And maybe it'll continue to be that so Perhaps these lows over here In terms of the Drawdown from the high would sort of Serve as as a base right might be Worthwhile to think of it like that But This is something that is is is Worthwhile to follow I think You know and and perhaps it's when it Gets to these these extreme points where You should expect some type of of you Know convergence back close to you know Close to one another right so at some Points they've gotten closer at other Points they've gotten further apart but Eventually it seems like they tend to to Converge you know much closer as time Goes on when they when they do get to to Extremes in terms of how much they've Diverged from one another another way to Visualize this is to look at the price Drawdown from the all-time high Look at this chart I mean I should not Have to spend a lot of time explaining This chart but I mean it's a very Powerful I mean it's it's interesting Right so it shows you the drawdown from

The ultimate look at last cycle guys I Mean just look at it look at how long we Spent down here before we finally went Back up I mean this this was still way down here At like 97 98 off the highs when you Look at when you don't look at Wix and You just look at Daily closest As late as you know eight March and April of the having year which is still Like seven or eight months away you know So It's a slightly tempered version of what We saw last cycle But the time base capitulation that was The hardest part right because I mean Like in the grand scheme of things when You look at cardano from the highs yeah I mean it's gone down a lot look at look At these well look at the yearly candles That we have up right I mean I mean look At this candle this was 94 down and then In 2022 it was 81 down this yearly Candle here I mean look at this Wick It was 200 Wick but it still closed the Year down negative 18 percent You know this Well I guess measure the wick anyways Has been 44 to the upside Doesn't mean it can't close the downside I mean if it went up 200 over here and Closed negative that I mean surely it Can here as well But then look what eventually came right

I mean again you're you're likely not Going to see those more impressive gains Until you get back to you know to to QE Which the fedister you know is likely Still a ways from considering inflation Especially core inflation has remained Relatively sticky so when you look at at 80 USD It is following a very similar path this Last cycle I just think a lot of people you know Look at it and don't really want to Believe it and they have it but a to Bitcoin it went to 800 satoshi's Okay that was the area that we were Talking about to hit in the summer of 2023 and that's right where we are We talked about getting a bounce back up To 1200 stats and we've seen that It's interesting because you know the The news with the SEC and ripple came Out and yes the dominance Bitcoin took a Hit but It's still I mean it's still 50 right I Mean it's still above the the prior Breakout range from 49 percent So you know I look at this chart and While I think that there's a good chance That ADA Bitcoin might oscillate in this Area I think eventually it it breaks Down And then it's got to find it's got to Find a low down here and and and and Find some bottoms

So that's I think what we're looking at Here okay Ada ether Um you know I mean as you can see over Here right it certainly can spend some Time this region I don't really think You're going to see a major mean Reversion play uh until you know a major Mean reversion to say the upper part of This trend line until probably early Next year right so early next year maybe You see Ada ether double up from where It is right now but I think the bigger Concern is is does it end up just being A another lower high you know like all Of these have been right like a high Lower high lower high If it does move up does it just end up Being another lower high That'll be the thing to look for okay Ada Bitcoin We'll see you know we'll see what it Does here and if it does go to that 400 Associate level or not Um if it does I mean it you know history Would show that that's that has been a Pretty good level in the past Um but I mean right now we're still at Around a thousand stats by the way we Were at a thousand souts in the summer Of 2019. Right I mean this is June 2019 we're at Thousand stats we still went to 400 Stats before it was all said and done so That's of course just something to again

Consider Um as you as you navigate the Cryptiverse so we've talked about awsd To talk about ADA Bitcoin a to Ether we Looked at the ROI after cycle Peak we Looked at the year-to-date Roi and how It Compares best to 2019 the pre-halving Year we talked about the price product From the all-time high remember what we Said we said that a lot of alts can put In new lows in the pre having year even When bitcoin's not Bitcoin is not putting a new low at this Point Cardano already did put in a new low Right Now I mean you know this is a this is a Wick that you might you maybe should pay Attention to right I mean a lot of times When you get Wicks like this like it it Serves as sort of a base for a while uh Before ultimately breaking back down if It's going to I mean not that it has to Uh but even if it even if it does break Down it can often serve as a baseball I Mean here's another example right like Where Ada USD had a pretty massive Wick And from that Wick I mean if you take This Wick uh this point here like how Long did it take to break down from that Level it took 22 weeks so from this Wick Here we're currently out about six weeks So again that's one of the reasons why We can spend time in this region

Especially for the Ada Bitcoin valuation And even the Ada USC evaluation right we Can spend some time in this region and And it not really be that dissimilar From what we've previously seen So I mean again I mean we we've seen This we've seen these patterns many Times the passwords even many times in The future so we've covered a lot I I do Hope this is useful to you guys Um and I mean again eventually we'll get Back to to looser monetary policy in the Meantime it I think it's I I think it's Fair to just look at a lot of these you Know a lot of these trend line or these These Trends on their on their Bitcoin Pairs and their ether Pairs and say you Know what this is how it's played out in The past it doesn't have to play out Like this time like that again but it Would probably be at least somewhat Prudent to consider that it could be a Likely outcome right and say you know What It's what happened last time could Happen this time too and so far it's What's happening Ada Bitcoin has turned It down a to Ether has turned it down 80 USD put in new lows in the summer in June So that's where we currently are this Cycle uh with cardano I I hope that my Uh my charts have helped you guys Navigate Ada in this cycle and I hope

That my experience is back over here With Ada I think they've I think they've Been actually quite useful because you Can see that it's played out in a very Similar manner right Very similar People think that's the low it's not we Go down people think that's slow It ends up being the low for a while Until it's not Right until it's not Happened over here and this time it's Already happened here in 20 uh in 2023. We didn't have to wait for the Prehabbing year So we'll see thank you guys for tuning In make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up again Check out the sale on into the Good Rivers premium and I'll see you guys Next time bye


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