Bitcoin: Year-To-Date ROI

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the crypto verse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be taking a look at the year-to-date Return on investment or Roi if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and also check out into the Cryptographers premium at into the again I will be putting Out fewer videos this week I am heading To Miami for Bitcoin Miami uh in just a Couple of days and if you are going on The last day of the conference so the 20th I will I will have a spot to to Meet to meet people so I'll put more Information about that out as we get Closer to the time and as that is is Cemented but I do want to talk a little Bit about just the the year-to-date Roi On bitcoin we do have a new development That occurred recently and anytime we Have a new development it's always Worthwhile to provide an update on where We are So of course when you look at it like This it doesn't really mean a whole lot Of it doesn't really mean anything but If we take a look at 2023 so this is What the year-to-date Roi of Bitcoin Looks like in 2023 and when you think About that I think it's worthwhile to Consider well what does it look like in The last two pre-habbing years you have

2015 And you also have 2019 now so far we've Been following 2019 a lot more closely Than 2015 although we could point out Now that the year the year-to-date Roi For 2019 has now surpassed as a function Of time what we'd be able to what we've Been able to accomplish in 2023 I've said before that the pre-halving Years are generally half up and half Down and you know these these sorts of Charts sort of help me cement why I Think that you can generally see that The prehabbing years don't really Accomplish a whole lot not in terms of Getting to new highs it it we tend to See apathy set in the most during the Prehabbing years and then everything Sort of returns back in the in the Having year but so far bitcoin's Actually been doing pretty well this Year right I mean it has though Fallen Below where where we where we were at This point in 2019 when you just look at A year to date return with that said It's still well above where it was back In 2015 at the same time Okay and and one of the things that I've We've previously done is we've taken an Average of 2015 and 2019 and the reason We did that is because if you if you Look at if you say take an average of 2014 in 2018 and then you this is what The average of those two years looks

Like and then you and then you overlay What happened in 2022 it was a pretty Good match as to what what ultimately Happened and it more or less it showed You what the bounds theoretically were For Bitcoin during that year I would argue that you could you could Do something similar for the pre having Year and say well let's just average out 2015 and 2019 and if you do that this is What you get right so this is not 2019 This is an average of 2015 and 2019. if You look at just 2019 it looks like this But if you average the last two Prehabbing years you get a little Something that's of course a more Tempered version of 2019 because 2019 we We saw a pretty pretty explosive move That would have now fallen behind When Comparing t2023 Now if you overlay 2023 onto this chart This is what it looks like right and so So far I would argue that 2019 or sorry An average of 2015 and 2019 has provided A somewhat decent Bounds on on the Bitcoin price action For this year if you go back you know a Few months ago I I said that I I think That the average price of of time Averaged Roi from 2015 and 2019 should Provide the bounds of Bitcoin in 2023. Now of course it remains to be seen if That's true we still have seven months Or so before we will know if that was an

Accurate statement or not so far it has Been an accurate statement but we still Again we still have a long time to go And if you're curious what those bounds Are In order to stay within you know within The time averaged Roi of 2015 and 2019 It's essentially twelve thousand dollars Up to thirty five thousand dollars and The way you get those numbers is if you Just look here at the lowest point it Was around 25 below the yearly open and So 25 below the 2023 yearly open is Around 12K but we can also see it went As high as 2.1 x above The yearly open which would put which Would put the price of Bitcoin closer Around 35k now I'm not suggesting that The price of Bitcoin has to go to either Of these extremes I'm just suggesting That the price action will likely be Contained within these extremes for the Duration of this year and rather than go To new highs we will likely just be Within these bounds and then next year Could be a year where we actually have a Reasonable chance to to get closer to Some of those higher levels Um and then 2025 of course But so far I mean so far you can see That we've we've you know we've had this First move up we had a second move up And now we've Consolidated for a while If there is a third move right if there

Is a third move then this chart would Suggest that 35k level would be a pretty Difficult level to get past and again if We end up going into a recession and say Like the second half of the year then You would be looking towards those lower Bounds but one of the things we also Remember though from the last cycle is That the recession that came after the Inverted yield curve didn't actually Occur until the having year right so if You were to go take a look at at the ROI In 2020 of course it was a great year But we rallied first in the having year And then we saw a pretty big drop that That you know happened back in March and This doesn't even do it justice because This doesn't include the hourly Wix we Actually went quite a bit lower uh when You when you look at this chart on Hourly Wix so Again at some point I would say between Now and the next having we will likely See some some type of resolution to to The to the inverted yield curve and and That will be sort of the secondary scare For Bitcoin uh in the short term of Course I mean until we see a material Rise in the unemployment rate right Until we see something like that Um you know you you aren't likely going To see a a massive capitulation by Bitcoin But once once that actually materializes

Which I think you could see during the Second half of the year or early next Year then that is what I think would Really bring about the sort of that Secondary scare for Bitcoin that we've Historically seen we got it in again we Got it in 2020 so this was the the Secondary scare after after the 2019 Move right or sorry the 2018. so you had 2018 which gave you this capitulation And then the 2020 move that was this Scare right here if you go back to the Prehabbing year of 2015 we had sort of Two scares in the same year we had this One here In January and then we had another one In August now the one in August might Not look so bad but actually if you Include hourly Wix it was essentially a Double bottom and on some exchanges we Put in a lower low some was a higher low If you average it out it's more or less A double bottom and so this is again Something that I think we'll have to Contend with so I'm guessing that Sometime between Q3 of this year and q1 Of next year we will see that that Secondary scare that we've historically Seen with Bitcoin before we get out into Into sort of the next phase of of Expansion by Bitcoin that we've Historically seen I mean it's very Cyclical Behavior Uh of course these Things don't have to repeat themselves

Forever I know some people are Suggesting that it won't but until it's Broken I will assume that we will more Or less play out in a in a similar Manner so again 2023 this is what it Looks like 2019. That's where we are compared to 2019 and Then 2015 you can see we were actually Much lower down during the during most Of the prehabbing year and we only are We only actually started to Rally out of The third quarter of the year so again You're likely going to see fairly Tempered price action this year it Doesn't mean you're not going to get Rallies doesn't mean you're not going to See moves back to the downside but I Would not expect rallies to new highs This year you know I wouldn't I Certainly wouldn't expect Bitcoin at 50k Or anything like that I would I would Expect a fairly dull year Um with some yes we of course had some Price movement to the upside like we Typically get during the prehabbing Years but we'll also likely have a very Similar amount of time where Bitcoin Goes uh to the downside as well about Half green half red and then we'll go Out into the having year and um and then We'll try to gear up for that anyways if You guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and again check out into the

Cryptiverse premium at into the I'll see you guys next Time bye


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