Bitcoin: Year-To-Date ROI

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the crypto verse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be looking at the year-to-date return on Investment or Roi as a function of time If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and check out into the Cryptographers premium at into the we also do have a sale Going on right now on that so make sure You check that out several different Tiers are available and you can lock in That rate as long as you do not cancel So one of the things that we've covered Probably fair Fairly frequently this Year is the year-to-date return on Investment and the reason I do it is Because I think that bitcoin's price Action is often quite cyclical if you Were to take a look at 2014 and 2018 They more or less tell a very similar Story and one of the things that we did Last year was We said why don't we take The average of 2014 and 2018 as a Function of time remove 2014 and 2018 From here and just look at the average Of 2014 and 2018. And then overlay 2022 and what you'll Notice is that the average of 2014 and 2018 essentially marked the upper and Lower bounds that the 2022 bear Market Experienced and so with this exercise in Mind the idea is well why not

Um continue this dubious speculation and Go look at 2015 and 2019 okay so if you Look at those two years they're very Different but the argument is that Perhaps a an average as a function of Time could help provide the overall Bounds for Bitcoin throughout the year This is the argument anyways doesn't Guarantee it's going to work it worked For for 2022 so we'll see if it works For 2023. now if we take the average of 2019 and 2020 or 2015 what you get is You get something that looks like that And so removing 2015 and removing 2019 This is the average from the two from Those two years and now if we put on Here 2023 it looks something like this Now the argument is that the what the Average of these two prior years should Or could provide the bounds for Price Action this year to get an idea of what Those bounds would be we look at the Lowest point we look at the highest Point the lowest point would represent a 25 drop from the early open the highest Point would represent about a 2 2.1 x From the yearly open or about a 2X or so 2.1 but approximately a 2X move from the Yearly open now a 2X move from the Yearly open might sound like a lot but We're already out 1.6 right we're Already at 1.6 so my argument is not That we have to touch either of these Bounds to the upside or the downside but

That these bounds could very well Provide the sort of the range that Bitcoin is in for the entirety of this Year Now to put some actual prices on this We'd actually have to go back to the Chart of Bitcoin and and you know find Out the yearly open it was around you Know sixteen five or something like that Um if memory starts correctly so it was Around 16 5 30. so what we're gonna do Is we're simply going to take a measured Move from the open from the yearly open So a 25 move to the downside from the Yearly open would constitute About a 12.5 K Bitcoin and then a 2X Move to the upside would put it right Around 32k okay Um And and right around 32 33 000 so I'm Speculating right I'm speculating that We're likely not going to see these you Know both bounds necessary necessarily Be visited but the argument is that just Like 2014 and 2018 or the average of Those two years provided a fairly Accurate depiction as to the bounds that 2022 would experience perhaps we could Think of the average of 2015 and 2019 Providing the bounds for what 2023 could Experience now right now Bitcoin is Going up quite quickly but we've talked About this potential uh scenario here Where the dominance is continuing to go

Much higher so we have a lot of videos On the Bitcoin dominance you guys Obviously know my thoughts on it but in General this dominance of Bitcoin is Moving up quite quickly and you're Seeing the devaluation of the altcoin Market back to big coin it is my is my Assumption here that liquidity from the Altcoin market is going back into Bitcoin because it's sort of Representing a flight to safety just Like a hat just like it did you know Just like as the dominance went up in 2019 just as the dominance went up in 2018 It can represent a you know a flight to Safety when the altcoin market is you Know is is highly uncertain uh in the Current environment so I do think Ultimately that's what we're seeing Again and the other thing that I've Mentioned to everyone with regards to The altcoin market is ideally what you Want to see is that whenever Bitcoin Rolls back over whether it you know what Depending on how high it goes but Whenever that occurs what you would want To see is the altcoin market still bleed On its Bitcoin pairs because that would Show the evolution of um of where we are Within the cycle and and I think is a a Necessary component again we're seeing The devaluation of the altcoin market Right now back to bitcoin and obviously

Bitcoin is going higher and another way To sort of visualize this that a lot of This is being or at least partially Explained via the altcoin flows and also Stable coin flows If you look at the chart of Bitcoin you Can see that it's actually up around 18 19 this week and it's also taken out the Prior highs however if you go look at The total so if you look at total market Cap what you'll notice is that it has Not taken out these prior highs now that Doesn't mean that it can't right it Doesn't mean that it can't but you can Look at this and see that Bitcoin is Sort of sucking in that liquidity from The rest of the crypto verse and that is How you can see these sorts of type These types of moves we saw a very Similar move Um you know in 2019 although in 2019 it Went up close to around 4X I don't think Bitcoin's gonna go up 4X this year Um it's my you know of course my opinion I could be wrong but this is what I Would generally suspect to be the bounds On on bitcoin price action for the Duration of this year it doesn't mean we Have to go as high as or high or as low As either of them but I do think that The context of History can at least Provide some guide as to what we can Realistically expect if you guys like The content remember to get to subscribe

To the channel give the video a thumbs Up we are still running that sale on Into the crypto versus premium so make Sure you check that out and I will see You guys next time bye


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