Bitcoin: Year-To-Date Returns (Bear Market Years, Recovery Years, Halving Years, Mania Years)

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing the year to date return on Investment or Roi as a function of time For prior years if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Check out the sale on into the crypto Various premium at into the we are going to end that Sale in about one week so make sure you Check it out we do have several Different tiers that you can sign up for And one of them is in fact free so one Of the things that I think is worthwhile To do Let's just look to see how does Bitcoin Perform over various years there's no Denying the similarities between prior Bear markets for instance we had a bear Market in 2014 we had a bear Market in 2018 and now we've also had a bear Market in 2022 and coincidentally the 2022 drawdown from January 1st of its Respective years for 2022 actually ended The year somewhere between the 2014 and 2018 bear markets now we know that when You look at say like the draw down the Total drawdown of Bitcoin From the all-time high it's actually Been a bit more tempered so far this Bear Market but if you just measure it From January 1st for every single year

You can see that 2022 sort of came in Between 2014 and 2018. now I think the Next thing to draw your attention to Though is what happened in 2015 and 2019. so 2019 came just after a 50 Correction by Bitcoin so we have to keep This in mind so if you go take a look at Bitcoin in 2018 you'll know that we had A base basically we had a 50 correction Just before the year ended so everything Was completely oversold and then Everything rallied for like the next Half year or so and then that rally was Faded until the end of the year that we Got into the having and and um and you Know the pandemic and everything and Then the rest is history But when you go take a look at just Simply what happened in 2015 and 2019 Which you'll notice is that they Actually look somewhat different for the First nine or ten months but they Actually ended the year with an Roi both Between one and two so the first thing I Should say is that if you are on if You're in the bullish camp for Bitcoin This year then I think it would be fair To say that your expectations of the Potential upside during the year after a Bear Market they should be somewhat Tempered one of the reasons is because It's often seen as sort of like a Recovery year where you know maybe Things aren't as bad as the year before

The bear Market years of 2014 and 2018 And hopefully 2022. but it doesn't Necessarily mean the Bitcoin is going to New all-time highs and I do see some People think about or put out this idea That Bitcoin will go put on a new All-time high in 2023 and you know a Long time ago a few years ago I was I Was a bit more optimistic about about That potential outcome but It is what it is right I mean Bitcoin it Just came out of a bear Market a full Bear Market year and we're likely Looking at at a recovery year for 2023 And when I say recovery year I don't Mean that that Bitcoin is going to new All-time highs I don't think Bitcoin Will hit a new all-time high in 2023. I Just simply do not think it's going to We have a recession to contend with the FED raised interest rates by quite a lot As we thought they would and they'll Probably continue to raise them at least For the first part of 2023. we're only Gonna now just start to feel the rate Hike effects from 2022 now because it Takes about a year for them to propagate Throughout the economy and for earnings To really get affected by by a lot of These interest rate hikes but while they Both ended the year somewhere between One and two that doesn't necessarily Mean that's what's going to happen this Year but the other thing I'd like to

Point out is that in 2019 so so both Years both years they ended up going Lower at least for a period than where They opened the year So if we throw on 2023 that's this Little blue line that just started 2019 Did go lower first before going back up To the upside 2015 went much lower right I mean this Is another you know 40 45 correction Almost right off the bat for Bitcoin in 2015. now remember 2015 came after 2014 which measured year To date was not as bad as 2018. so 2014 There was a little bit more to unwind 2022 again still sits somewhere in Between 2014 and 2018 when you measure The year-to-date Roi in 2022 of course Both 2014 and 2018 did experience Further drawdown than where Bitcoin Currently is okay So these are all important things to Consider now with regards to 2019 Um the one of the things that I I think Is probably worthwhile to sort of look At here is after this final capitulation Which marked the market cycle bottom Bitcoin still more or less hung around The lows for most of the Year okay so Whether you know really no matter what There is likely going to be somewhat of A boring year you know I could put out All sorts of sensationalist price Predictions and all this sort of so her

And loves that stuff but the truth is is It's gonna likely be a boring year Okay and and again you know everyone Always wants to know when's the bottom Going to occur there's always of course As we get further and further in the Probability goes up that the bottom will In fact be in but to assume unilaterally That the bottom has to be in just Because we're in a New Year might be a Little bit too optimistic considering That 2015 had no problem continuing to Go lower so there is a chance at least That 2023 could you know could find a New low as well 2019 did not all right So an important consideration 2019 did Not find a new low but you can see that It has happened before right and then Actually the 2013 bear Market It's the 2014 bear Market actually Started in November of 2013 and it ended In January of 2015 but on some exchanges We actually went lower in August of 2015. now I think most exchanges did not Put in a new low in August but some of Them did therefore you know whether you Want to say the bear Market ended in January 2015 or if it went all the way Out until August I mean it's somewhat Irrelevant it's more or less just like a Double bottom Um but the point is is you know once the Bottom was in whether you say if you do Say it was January

We still retested it more than half a Year later before the bull market was in Full swing again I finally was seen I have bronchitis so If you're wondering why I can't stop Coughing now you know So 2018 also saw something similar right Bottom Pretty nice move to the upside and then It's kind of like a double bottom right It's interesting because it's like you Know Bitcoin has done this thing where It it often finds some type of double Bottom before going off into a new bull Market now is that going to happen this Time well of course that's not for Interpretation I would put forth the idea that it might Not happen this time One reason we might Should be on our toes more so than Normal is This bull market had a double Peak right Very different than these you know then There's like like these major Capitulation or these major blow off Tops followed by fairly quick Capitulation So there's a non-negligible chance that Whenever Bitcoin Finds Its bottom It bounces there we don't put in another Another double bottom We have to consider that as a

Possibility you know failure to consider All outcomes is not really a good a good Strategy in my opinion you should Consider various outcomes because if you Don't and you have your head stuck in The sand because you you think you know What's going to happen or whatever you Know what happens if it doesn't happen You have to be able to look at alternate Alternative scenarios I mean of course I Struggle with this myself sometimes Um but it is something that we we should Always strive for is to think what Happens if something if another Bottoming pattern occurs you know this Is the first time we had a a like Topping pattern that looked like this so Perhaps the bottoming pattern could look Somewhat different than what we've seen Before Going back to the year-to-date Roi Now what I'd like to do is take a look At the having years okay so in this in This case we're going to take a look at 2012. Okay 2016. In 2020. these are the having years for Bitcoin right and what you'll notice is That by the end of those years the ROI For all three of them was between two And four But in fact the highest one you might Assume because of diminishing returns it

Would have been 2020 but actually in Terms of the ROI year to date 2020 was Higher than 2012 and 2016 by the end of The year now some of that could have Been caused by the excessive money Printing by the Federal Reserve but at The end of the day it's just the detail I mean it's an important detail that we Have to consider but what matters at the End of the day is just what is the Return not the narrative to go behind it Right the narrative doesn't go into your Bank account like the money the money You get actually does Um So You can see here that 2020 actually Yielded the best year-to-date returns as A function of time for having years so What do we have here And we're just trying to keep it as real As possible right we have The bear Market years Pretty much down only right and this is Why I said all last year stat cash Take a cold shower if you're considering Buying all coins and reconsider because It's likely just a bear market and Everyone's going to get hyped up amount Every single new rally but at the end of The day everything's likely trending Down for for 2022 and Um and I think that you know I think That has come to pass and I think we'll

Just remember 2022 is a bear Market year Now there were the people I guess that Were hoping that June was the bottom and There were a lot of people that were Hoping that was the case but I think it Was still falling into the same trap That a lot of people fell into in 2018 Right thinking that June was the bottom And I was one of them in 2018 right like I thought that June was probably the Bottom in 2018 But guess what it wasn't right it wasn't And and November brought capitulation uh Back then just like we saw some move to The downside this time as well although It wasn't quite as significant of a Capitulation at least not so far so you Have the bear Market years of 2014 2018 And 2022. you have the recovery years of 2015 2019 and now hopefully 2023 but a Recovery year does not mean there's no Further downside There was further downside in 2015 and Even in 2019 again there was further Downside but we did not put in a new low There was further downside from the year To date open but we did not put in a new Low so you should be Temper I I think people should temper Their expectations for 2023 just by Looking at the context of what happened In Prior recovery years after a major Bear Market okay 2019 wasn't all that Bad for at least the first half of the

Year the second half of the Year sucked Right it was pretty brutal it was just a Slow bleed again Made us wondering what's really going on Here but 2015 was actually a lot more difficult Now if we were to follow 2015 which we Should consider so if we were to follow 2015 and we were and we get and we got Some type of we get some type of Capitulation uh our final move to the Downside within the next like few weeks Or so Um we we certainly could just sort of Scrape those lows for a majority of the Year and that's something that we have To you know we just have to admit right This is a possibility that it could play Out and if it does it's likely just Going to represent a great accumulation Time Um For people if it you know if we see These types of mass capitulations down Just something to keep in mind after Those years you get the having years of 2012 2016 and 2020. pretty good years All in all I anticipate That 2024 will be a relatively Good Year Okay now one place that I could be wrong About that is because I I do think we Are heading in towards towards a Recession right if you take a look at at The treasure yield spreads right you can

See normally there's only one way out When they when they get inverted like This three month or ten year the ten to Two year the ten year and it's out via Recession now I think the recession is Going to come in 2023 I suppose if you Were to tell me if you were to say well Ben you know what if 2023 or what a 2024 Is not a good year The only way that I think that well Maybe not the only way but I would say The highest likelihood of that happening Would be if somehow the 2023 or the Recession that I think is coming in 2023 If it's delayed until 2024 because the U.S economy is more resilient than a lot Of people think then perhaps I could be Off on that but even in that sense like You know if if you were to see some type Of recession in early 2024 if it doesn't Happen in 2023 and it happens in early 2024 just like we had a very brief one In early 2020 but it doesn't necessarily Mean that year has to be entirely bad Like you could see some type of move to The downside just like we saw in March Of 2020 but we could still be moving Back up by the end of the year so even If that even if the recession is delayed Until 2024 it still doesn't mean that The entirety of 2024 is going to be a Bad year I I do think 2024 will likely Be a relatively good year uh for returns In in Risk assets 2023

I think we still have some uh some some Pretty pretty big macro headwinds that We have to face it doesn't mean we're Not going to have some rallies this year We probably will Um it just means that a lot of those Rallies will probably get faded back Down and and as hard as that is to hear I mean this is what we've seen before Right in recovery years after major bear Market years so So the main points I think we need to Come away with is that you know 2014 2018 2022 All major bear Market years the years That came after them at least for 2015 And 2019 2019 was at least somewhat interesting But all in all the final return by the End of the year was between one and two And 2015 saw new lows for that bear Market 2019 saw Lows compared to year where it started The year but it didn't actually put in a New a new macro low So again we have to understand where we Are and what are the risks so there is Always a risk we're going to put in a New low Um but even if we don't we're still Likely scraping the bottom for a while Right it was just what it is and then Finally you get the uh the year after The having years which tend to be the

Best years and those would be 2013. 2017 And 2021 okay now in this case the last Year 2021 was actually not that great of A year compared to 2020 uh 2020. so if You're to put 2020 on here 2020 for Bitcoin was actually a bit better than 2021. But 2021 wasn't wasn't all bad I mean It's still ended the year between one And two about 1.58 it's just that a lot Of the parabolic rally that Bitcoin had In the last bull market actually Occurred at the very end of 2020 and so By the time we got to 2021 you know Bitcoin was already at like 28k or Something was already like 10x off its Bottom almost so something to consider But again I mean you can see if you put Up the Hat all of the having years and The the year after the having years They're all pretty good years right and I I'm not under the delusion that They're having is the only thing that Leads to bitcoin bull markets because I Don't think it is I think it I'm sort of In between I mean I know some people say It has no role and then some people say It's the only thing that matters I'm Sort of in between I think it is Important I I do think the narrative Behind it brings in people to the space I can still remember like every single Having it seems like there's just like

An influx of new people it's like a Popular narrative and you'll see it Amongst the various news sites and Whatnot people will be talking about it It'll likely bring people into the space So I do think it has a positive effect On the price of Bitcoin Um but I also think that it has happened So far to correspond mostly to p a Period of quantitative easing and Relatively And relatively loose monetary policy but Again you know like We still probably will will get back to A phase of looser monetary policy by mid To late 2024 at the latest so I can Still see things lining up for things to Start looking better again in 2024 right I mean the federal raiser interest rates To probably whatever they're going to Leave them at for a while Um and Um and and perhaps I'll leave them there For nine to 12 months or something but Eventually I mean you know assuming they They kick us into a recession which Doesn't seem like the the most likely Outcome and assuming that CPI goes down Which inflation normally goes down During recessions right if you go take a Look at inflation year over year what You'll notice is that these little gray Shaded regions these are recessions they Tend to bring inflation down so if we

Get one Inflation's likely coming back down And if inflation comes back down and the Fed's got interest rates somewhere Between like five and five and a half Percent or something then they'll be Inclined to sort of cut rates at some Point You know oftentimes the market continues To go down right when they first start Cutting rates But it does at least mean that we're Getting closer to the end of the bear Market right Of course technically speaking I guess Every single day we get closer to the End of the bear market so it's not Exactly the most insightful thing I've Ever said Um but hopefully this video has been Useful and and helps you to sort of Better plan and prepare for the most Likely outcomes throughout the next one To three years my general assessment Right now is that 2023 is just going to Be a recovery year where we don't really See any crazy rallies to the upside it Doesn't mean that Bitcoin can't go back Up into the twenty thousand dollar range Uh it could it could we could go back to The 20 to 30 000 range it just means That we could see new lows based on what Happened in 2015 and even if we don't See new lows

We're still scraping the bottom probably For quite some time Next year will probably be better and There's a good chance the year after That will also be a good year but 2022 Sucks 2023 is is Going to be somewhat boring and then the Taurus will probably return next year so That's just the way the cycle tends to Work is how it has worked for a long Time hopefully you guys enjoy the Content make sure you subscribe give the Video a thumbs up remember to check out The sale on into the cryptiverse premium At into the link is down In the description below or the pinned Comment see you guys next time bye


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