Bitcoin: Time-Based Capitulation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing time based capitulation if You guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and check out into the Cryptoverse premium at into the now we talked about These bear Flags a while back and we Talked about the general expectation in 2022 is that we are just in a bear Market and that all of these rallies are Nothing more than bear Market rallies or Counter Trend rallies right so rather Than getting so excited about these Moves to the upside right the general Expectation throughout 2022 is that they Would eventually resolve to the downside And so far that has been playing out but One of the things that I I think it's Important to think about when you look At this chart is to is to remember that Time-based capitulation is arguably just As important as price based capitulation Because as I've said before you know it Would be easy if the the market went Down however far it was going to go down In a single day and I mean even if it Were like an 80 or 90 drop if it Happened in one day and then you could Just start investing again and watch it Slowly go up that wouldn't be so bad the More difficult part of bear markets in

My opinion it's not the price drawdown It's the time it takes to get there okay Now something I've also you know Something I've talked a little bit about As well is In Bear markets it can often make fools Of the Bulls can also make fools of the Bears right you might say well how is That right how are the Bears foolish Well it at the end of the day you know As as we look back on the year the Bears Have not been foolish at all right I Mean being bearish in 2022 has been the Place to basically been the I think the Most accurate place to be and I know a Lot of people are are kind of put off by My bearish view this year but I would Argue it's a more realistic view rather Than just blindly telling you something That you want to hear and then and then A few weeks later we go put in a new low Right it's it's better to just sort of Be realistic about the situation And and look at it that way Um rather than constantly calling the Bottom as I said you know the people That call the bottom in 2022 are are Likely going to make a fool of Themselves and and so far that is that Has proven to be the case now one of the Reasons I think that throughout the year The Bears can seem foolish even though The macro perspective remains intact Right like I don't think you can argue

That the Bears have been right I think They clearly have but the reason why Bears can be made a fool of in the short Term is that oftentimes in Bear markets You can actually spend more time going Up than down Look at each of these bear Flags right Throughout every single one of these Bear Flags we had all sorts of Theoretical discussions you know about Whether the bottom is in or not and a Lot of people call for the bottom every Stop of the way but I I think the reason Why I've remained very cautious for a Number of reasons is because there's Still several indicators for Bitcoin That were developed during a secular Bull market that still have not flashed And you would I would expect them to Flash in a longer S P 500 bear Market So that's that's one reason and then Second reason we we still do have a lot Of these macro headwinds that that lie Ahead of us and so you know whether you Think the bottom is in or not is is Almost irrelevant because the sort of The point is that even if it is in which It still you know is still a good chance That it's not but even when it is that You're still looking at a a relatively Long sideways movement this is what we Saw back in 2015 it's what we saw the 2019 to some extent although there was a Little bit more more volatility but the

Reason why the Bears can can feel Foolish for a lot of the bear Market is Because we spend so much time going up And so little time going down these Moves to the downside can all sometimes Only last a few days or a few weeks and Then you get back into a new Range where You slowly start to go up again and and This is the hard part right it's where You slowly start to go up again because The people who say you know like suppose You were wanting to buy this little Wick Here then you have to spend you know Three or four months waiting to get Bitcoin at a price that was as low as That and in the same way back over here In May if you had spent the entire you Know the entire May and early June Wishing you had bought this wig you Would have just had to be you just have To wait and so what happens is people You know they they constantly regret not Buying that initial Wick and so time Goes by Bitcoin you know the market Draws back in more money because people Capitulate on a Time basis not not when I say capitulate I mean they throw their Money into the market right they're just Like all right well I missed the bottom Therefore let me just go ahead and put It in over here before we go put any All-time highs and then right when they Make that decision then we go to new Lows and then you repeat the process

Right I mean this has happened like six Times this year already where you know This arguably this was number one this Was number two number three number four Number five Everyone always loves how I draw the Fives and number six and the reason why It's so difficult is because you know A lot of people they miss the wick and Then they just have to watch the chart For the next like several months waiting For a lower price and a lot of times They they say you know what they give up And they say all right I guess the Bottom's in and right when the majority Say that a lot of times then we we go Down and put in a new low and then you Repeat the process right new bottom Bear Flag for a month A lot of people fomo back in and then we Go to a new a new low Capitulation Wick people have to watch That level for months because they feel Like that was the bottom And then you you go down to a new level And this time and this time we didn't Even go set a new low we you had to live Through the same situation again for Several months right but then eventually What happens right you take out the low And then you know it's like all the People that spent watching this price Action over here and then over here and Then over here and then over here

And then over here the YOLO in because That time base component gets to that so As I've said right price based Capitulation is one thing and and that Can be looked at by you know the Drawdown from the all-time highs okay Um let me just sort of delete a lot of This stuff so so the drawdown from the All-time highs of course is is is one Component of it and and we know that We've experienced a significant drawdown In bitcoin's price so far to the tune of About 77 or so right So That is painful right that is painful For a lot of people but even even for The people who are on the right side and And if say if you know if you've been Stacked in cash this year I've said cash This King the entire year right but if You've been on that side it can still be Difficult and it can still leave you Feeling often somewhat foolish because You know you might take this you might Take the stance that cash is King like I Have but then when you watch the bear Market Rally for three months Maybe it causes you to question your Thesis right and then eventually it Breaks down a new level and you get Comfortable and you're like all right I'm glad I waited and then you have to Spend another month waiting and then

Another you know another six months Waiting right for these new lows to Eventually come so that's why I just Want to you know make clear that time Based capitulation is the same as or if Not more important than price-based Capitulation because at the end of the Day it's all relative right like it Doesn't I mean you know if you're if You're cash heavy It doesn't really matter What the bottom is right it's all about It's relative right I mean if if the Bottom is 15K and and you know you think The Bottom's in and then you put your Money into the market and then it goes Up to 30k I mean you've doubled your Money but in the same way if Bitcoin Goes to 10K and then you think the Bottom's in it goes 20K you've doubled Your money right it's all relative so I Think the more important aspect that Probably more people should talk about Is not what is the bottom but when is The bottom right because you know if Someone were to say the bottom is is you Know is is 13k or something but it Doesn't happen there's a big difference Between 13k happening tomorrow or what If it happens six months from now you Know what if there's a a rally between Now and then or what if the bottom is is 10K and and we go there tomorrow right Like uh figuring out where that is is I

Think a lot more important and the Relative the relative moves of course Are are much more important it's like I Mean you feel like a last cycle I mean When Bitcoin dropped you know 84 from The all-time high It certainly sucked for a lot of people And I mean as someone who was Avidly buying Bitcoin at 6K because I I Thought the bottom was in back then it Sucked to see it go down a bit more and You know I mean I I wish I'd waited back Then I I wish I'd waited I you know wish I hadn't come in so aggressively in August and September but I had learned My lessons from prior bear market so I Did have cash on hand which is not Something I could have said for the bear Market before it Um so this bear Market you know I've Been a bit more and by a bit more I mean A lot more conservative and cautious and I mean you know the altcoin market still Is incredibly risky but as far as Bitcoin you know these these bear Flags They just continue to play out one after Another now a common retort to such an Such a type of analysis is while it's a Bear it's a bear flag and soul it's not And I mean yeah it's a very astute Observation of course you know it's a Bear Flag until it's not and eventually We'll probably break out of one but so Far

Assuming that the bear Market lives on Has worked out pretty well okay Now what could be some type of Confirmation that It's over right well if you look back at What happened at the bottom in 2018 You know you had a low and then you had A higher low and we were sort of off of This uh you know this sort of this Bear Flag we popped above it right we finally Popped above it and then we came back Down to retest it If you want to draw the Bear Flag Another way that maybe doesn't fit that Specific narrative and you take out all The way up to this Wick Then it looks like that right where you Sort of slowly break out a bit retest a Little bit and then you're off to the Races but so far I mean that has just Simply not happened right right I mean Like none of these bear flags have Broken to the upside they always get Rejected right where those initial tops Are right you go into the new range that Top ends up being sort of the that I Mean as long as you follow it on the Line to a slightly higher price right That's what makes it a Bear Flag right It slowly goes up like this after within A downtrend And eventually it breaks down right into That initial Wick and that line that Sort of governs those lower prices

That ends up being sort of the the most That Bitcoin can obtain in that time Period right and so we keep testing it We keep testing it we go to a new low Right and and so on and so forth okay So hopefully this is at least you know Another I mean we talked about this a While back as well but hopefully if you Haven't seen it Expressed in this way hopefully it's a Little bit insightful into into why the Time-based component is important Because even if you are on the right Side and you've been stacking cash you Know you'd probably would be lying to Yourself to say that you weren't feeling Somewhat uncomfortable at various parts Of the year when it fell like the market Was leaving you behind uh time and time Again only to be proven eventually right Right and so that's why that's why bear Markets can often make fools of both the Bulls and the Bears obviously in Bear Markets the Bulls are the bigger fools Because they get so hyped up during Every single counter Trend rally and They make fun of the bears but Eventually the Bears tend to get the Last laugh in Bear markets and and the The buy the dip crowd they sort of Slowly go away and they capitulate and They give up and then eventually you Reach that bottom and and you know You've finally wiped out all the

Tourists from the space who are just Simply the the Perpetual buy the dip YOLO in you know yellow into the market Crowd they eventually get purged from The space and then we begin Anew and It's interesting because by the time we Break out to the upside In a sustained way right like in a Sustained bull market by the time that Actually occurs A lot of people are simply not going to Believe it's happening right because They are they're going to have been let Down so many times that they will simply Refuse to acknowledge that it could Possibly go up right and that's what Bear markets do they they take Everything from you if you're not Prepared for them and even if you are Prepared for them they can still take a Lot out of you just mentally and just Simply waiting and waiting and waiting So as I've said before right 2022 I I Know inflation is high but I still think For 2022 cash has been King it is King We've said it's King right for the Entire year basically since q1 and and I Think this year will be remembered as Just simply a bear Market year Um Nothing more nothing less as we get Further out into 2023 I do think that Narrative will slowly start to change And we will build out a more

Um obvious base that we can hopefully Build off of and go into another bull Market but try to you know try to stick Around right the the biggest secret to Crypto is I mean of course there's all These indicators we can talk about and I Talk about the indicators all the time Right one of the biggest secrets to Crypto is just stick around right like Try not to go anywhere as hard as it Might be it's okay to take a month or Two off I mean how in 2018 I I tuned out Of the crypto verse basically from I Want to say you know from April or Mar it was whenever we got Rejected off the 200 day right So it was May so I basically tuned out Of the cryptoverse from here until right Around here I just I just tuned out I Was like I don't really care right it's Just gonna the market sucks for a while It's gonna suck for a while and Um and it did you know and and the Actual the last bull market was actually A little bit easier to navigate because It was more of these it was one of more Of these like parabolic blow-off tops And and therefore the the bear Market Was not actually nearly as difficult you Don't really see the same type of Market Structure over here as you do over here Right there weren't as many like bear Flags that lasted for like three months Or a couple months I mean it was sort of

We go straight up and then we come Straight down One of the reasons that it might that The market structure might look a lot Different over here Um than it did back over here is because Of the different nature in the top right Yes this was a parabolic rally but the Main difference is that a lot of people Had plenty of time to buy the top Whereas not a lot of people had plenty Of time to buy the top here so one one Potential Theory here is that not a lot Of people were able to buy this top and So they were you know it didn't take as Long for the majority of those people to Sort of capitulate and get purged from The market And so we were much you know we were Able to just sort of move down in a much More Swift manner this time you could Argue that so many people had time to Buy the top then rather get that Huge capitulation that we saw back in 2018 right like it's just been a very Slow bleed right where you you you spend A little bit of time in this range then You go down right and then you spend a Little bit of time in this range then You go down and it's like you're you're Sort of seeing you know potentially the People that bought up here they're just Slowly capitulating as more and more Events unfold because there's so many

More people that bought that top and not Nearly as many people that bought over Here and I think that's probably one of The things that make this bear Market Especially painful because I think a lot Of us would really love nothing more Than to just rip the Band-Aid off right Like just rip it off and and get it over With because I mean I I'm sure that if If a lot of you know more seasoned Crypto investors saw something Akin you Know to 2014 the end of 2014 or the end Of 2018 where you see that massive Capitulation then I think a lot more People would be willing to jump in with Size I think the real problem that a lot Of people are struggling struggling with Especially people have been in crypto a Long time Are that you you know it's like people Are waiting for this massive Capitulation that just simply has not Come right and there's no guarantee that It will come I mean it could simply be Just a slow bleed and the market bottoms Quietly on some random Tuesday in 2023 When no one's talking about it and and It's like wait how could that be the Bottom there wasn't a capitulation right We have to be open to this idea The top Was a double top where we spent a lot More time at it so in the same way that You know you saw a major top here

Without a long time you know without a Long time being spent there we saw a Fairly succinct capitulation at the end Of the year this end of year so far Anyways has more or less just been a um A slow bleed right and and I I do think It's actually taking a a real toll on a Lot of people I think if you just sort Of navigate around the crypto verse for A little while you'll see that I think a Lot of people are really starting to Throw in the towel people are becoming Apathetic and so on and so forth okay The only other I mean you know you can You can zoom in and look on on some Shorter time frames here but you know if You measure the time frame of of these Various Flags before they really break Down this was about 33 days this one Over here was about 119 days This one here was about 32 days and then You had this one which was probably Closer to 63 days This one was about 73 days and then so Far this one It has about 27 days or so right so I Mean look uh people are going to call The bottom constantly and eventually Someone will be right and they'll take Credit for it for the next 10 years but The point is is bottom calling in 2022 Has been a very a very tricky task and And so far these bear flags have all Simply resolved to the downside and an

Apathy has continued to take over I do Think we're going to see brighter times Ahead I don't mean to just be like you Know the bearer no pun intended bad news But this is just simply the reality of The situation in 2022 and we'll see what 2023 brings us thank you guys for tuning In make sure you subscribe if you're not Subscribed give the video a thumbs up Check out into the cryptoverse premium At into the and I'll see You guys next time bye


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