Bitcoin: The 2024 Halving

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing the having if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and also check out the sale on into The cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse decom the sale will be Ending just after the having so make Sure you check it out and lock in the Lower rate let's go ahead and jump in The Bitcoin having is probably one of The most significant events in our Industry I often find people debating Every cycle you know whether the having Is priced in or not whether it has an Effect on pric or not my view is that You know we've had three having before We had one in 2012 one in 2016 and of Course one in 2020 and I I certainly do Think that the having does play a role In the cycles of the crypto verse Um I also think that monetary policy Plays a role but I don't really fall in Either Camp completely I don't think That it's only based on supply side Stuff and I don't think it is only based On you know monetary policy I think it's A combination of of different things Markets are complex um they're they're Based on a lot of different things and So because the having is one of the most Important events I wanted to do a video

Where we talk about it and talk about Where where I have previously said that Theit the price of Bitcoin may be now Price predictions are honestly something That I'm not super into um because Usually you know usually price Predictions don't really turn out that Great if if you put in a price Prediction and it goes above it then you Know the comments aren't so nice and if You put a price prediction and we don't Quite get there you know people are also Upset but I wanted to to revisit Something that I said four years ago and Kind of see like where are we with Respect to that so four years ago I put Out this video Bitcoin Fair valuation at The next tabing in 2024 I put out this Video in 2020 in May of 2020 the price Of Bitcoin was around $8,000 and what I said back then was That if we follow the fair value Logarithmic regression trend line then By the fourth having which is the having That's about to occur the price to Bitcoin would be between 40 to $50,000 okay that's what I said back Then clearly we are above that price Right clearly if we go back and look at The video that I put out a year ago or No this was at the end of 2022 um or mid 2022 just before the the the um the Final collapse occurred I also sort of Drew it out going to around a 40 to 50K

So with Bitcoin right now at 63k it's ahead right I mean there's no Denying it it's ahead of where I said it Was going to be back then now of course Back then putting out a price prediction Four years later um and and hoping that It would be accurate at all was probably Something I was fairly naive about uh But here we are 4 years later and the Price of Bitcoin is actually above the Target range that I put and it's also Above this area that I put as well going Into the having and so with that in mind I I want to discuss a couple of things That that may come up after the having Um that could very well uh take some People by surprise now there's a lot of Different thoughts to this current cycle With it being you know so hot at this Point in the cycle we've never seen the Market put in new highs before the Having right this is the first time ever That Bitcoin has put in new highs before The having and so that was you know Probably one of the reasons why back Then I I didn't think it would be quite So high but we are at new highs before The having and so I just want to talk About what you know what to potentially Expect after the happing now there's two Different trends of thought here one of Which is a left translated Peak okay now To be completely honest I'm not really In the left translated Peak camp but it

Does have like maybe 40% of my attention And the reason for that is if you were To take the ROI of Bitcoin from Peak to Peak and you take it from the April Peak Peak instead of the November 2021 Peak And you compare it to last cycle it sort Of looks like it potentially could form Into a peak sooner rather than later in Which case you would get a left Translated top meaning the the the Actual top occurs way before anyone Thinks it will historically Bitcoin has Topped out in the fourth quarter of the Post having year so if you look at Major Peaks that Bitcoin has had in the past If I were to get an arrow here you can See that this top was in Q4 of the post Having year this one was in Q4 of the Post having year and this one was in Q4 Of the posst having Year we're currently In Q2 of the having year so you know That is is still about six quarters away When Bitcoin typically tops but again so Far this cycle is anything but typical With Bitcoin putting in new Before the having so if it is to Translate into a left translated Peak a Left translated cycle then it would be More likely that the top would occur in 2024 as opposed to 2025 if we are going to follow that then I have to imagine that we would follow Potentially what happened last cycle now It's not really my base cas

But again it would be foolish not to at Least acknowledge the similarities but On the other hand where I would say 60% Of my attention is right now is what if This cycle is just like prior cycles and We are all over here jumping through Hoops trying to explain why this time is Different when potentially it just Peaks When it normally does and one way that We could go about getting to that point Would be that if we had a cool off in The summer okay now there's no guarantee And if we follow this path then you Might see the exact opposite of a summer Lull but if there is a summer lull then One thing to keep in mind when you look At the last two cycles as measured Peak To Peak you can see that at this point In the cycle Bitcoin was only up or it Was it was actually still about 60% down From its all-time high now I want you to Think about that for a minute in both Prior Cycles at this point as measured Peak to Peak Bitcoin was 60% below the All-time high 60% below it now right now Bitcoin is Not 60% below the prior high in fact 60% Below the prior High would put Bitcoin All the way down at around $26,000 that's how accelerated we are This cycle look at the last cycle 60% Down from that Peak you can see that by May of 2020 that was when the having Occurred Bitcoin was down 60% from the

High and then if you go back to the Cycle before that this the that the Having occurred in July if I remember Correctly and if you go to July of 2016 you will see that Bitcoin was Approximately down 60% from the high This Having it's not right it's not 60% down From the high in fact it is at the high It's at the high which has never Happened before so this has caused a lot Of people to view this cycle as Different from the prior ones and I have To tell you they make a fair point they Make make a fair point and if you Measure it from the April top you can Kind of see that Bitcoin is doing just About what it always does at this point In the cycle if you take the April top As the more important top and of course There is evidence to suggest that the April top is the more important top for Instance some of that evidence to Suggest the April top is the more Important top is to look at views to a Lot of different cryptocurrency YouTube Channels and to note that there were More views in the first half of 2021 Than there were in the second half where Bitcoin basically just put in a lower High in terms of social activity but Somehow a higher high in terms of price If you look at Bitcoin with respect to Its 50e moving average one of the things

That it does after every major cycle top Is that it goes back down to the 50 we And then gets a bounce a dead cap bounce Before ultimately capitulating we saw That happen over here as well go back to The 50 we get a dead bounce and then go All the way down this past cycle we did Not see that exactly what happened was We went back to the 50 we and instead of It just being a dead cap bounce to a Lower high which is what potentially That would have been we ended up getting A higher high which took a lot of people Off guard now I was optimistic of a Higher high but honestly I think because Of for for wrong reasons you know and Sometimes you get things right for the Wrongs reasons and and it's important to Take that into Consideration so We can see that that happened right we Can see that we went to the 50 we we got A bounce but that time it actually led To a higher high the even the Intermediate bull market in 2019 had us Bouncing off the 50 week at some point And so the 50 we today is at around 40K It's at 39.2k 39.3k which is interesting because again That is way below the current prices Way below current prices and I have to Imagine that if we do not evolve into a Left translated top if we do not right

So there's two op you know there's two Options right we evolve into a left Translated top where the peak occurs in 2024 or we evolve into a normal cycle Where the peak occurs in 2025 if we're going to evolve into a Normal cycle where the peak occurs in 2025 You really need to see Bitcoin cool off For a While and again as measured Peak to Peak You can see just how far quote unquote Ahead of schedule this cycle is it's Actually not that unfamiliar when you Think about it the reason it seems like This time is different is because Bitcoin is at new all-time Highs but if You look at the last cycle there was a Period where it too was well above its Prior cycle but what eventually happened Is it bled back down and basically got In line with the prior cycle and then Still ended up showing diminishing Returns okay and then it actually got Ahead of that cycle again this is why a Lot of people thought we were going to Go to 300 K last cycle but it still was Diminishing returns so I want to Continue to put forth this idea that if We do not evolve into a left translated Peak sometime around the having and Instead the market cools off going into The summer then you might just see Something like this where it causes the

Cycle to just get back in line with Prior Cycles now that of course could Make a lot of people think that the Cycle that the peak is over and and the Bull Run is is is completely done and And maybe they're right right but there Is at least some evidence to suggest That that could be what is ultimately in Store for us as we get lat into the Cycle if you're not familiar with how The last cycle worked and why we what What happened when we bled back down Here there's a number of things that Really put Bitcoin back into a Intermediate bare Market sort of you had A a quantitative tightening bull market And then a bare Market as rate Cuts Arrived and then a QE bull market that Topped in 2025 now take a a look at Bitcoin this cycle and see how it's Doing something very very similar in the Sense that it's had this major Run During High interest Rates you can see it's had this run During High interest rates and in fact If you were to look very closely at when The FED paused here and compare it to This you can see something very similar Happened right it it Fell just after the FED paused here it Fell just after the FED paused and then It went up quite a Lot but ultimately what happened is that

It it found a local top as just before Rate Cuts arrived and then it bled for a While before getting another bull run Into the post having year now by the way The having is only four four days away So if we do come up and put in a new Local high before the having or maybe Around the having that still doesn't Necessarily invalidate the idea of the Market cooling off sometime after the Having if the left translated Peak is Not going to occur okay so again there's Two thoughts you have a left translated Peak Where us Deens just can't help ourselves And everyone just front run runs Everything until until the consumer Caves or the other idea which would Support the idea of this time not being Different would just for the cycle to Get back in line now if the cycle gets Back in line then maybe this view from Four years ago of around a you know 40 To 50K Bitcoin by the fourth having Isn't that far off I know right now if We were to go back to 40 to 50 okay it Would probably feel like the world's Falling apart for a lot of people but One thing to consider is that when when E I'm you know I don't know how I made It this far in the video without talking About it one thing to consider last Cycle is that the 30% drop Bitcoin had Pretty shallow drops during this QT bull

Market right pretty shallow drops and Then eventually it finally got a 30% Drop that 30% drop corresponded Precisely to the point when eth Bitcoin Broke down and eth Bitcoin just broke Down below the summer 2022 low so if you Were to get a 30% drop sometime after The having that would actually put you Kind of right around that range that we Said way back over here and in addition To that it would also get you Loosely Backed in line with where the prior Cycles were so going into this Bitcoin Having is certainly different in the Sense that we've never seen a new All-time high before the habing if you Were to go look at the risk metric of Bitcoin you will see that the risk on Bitcoin has never been this High going Into the having in fact the last time we Went into the the the 20 when we went Into the 2020 having the risk of Bitcoin Was at 04 when you look at the 2016 Having in July of 2016 the risk on Bitcoin was 0.4 today the Bitcoin risk Is6 so it's actually quite a bit higher Than it was during the last two 3 to4 this time we find ourselves at 639 and only a few weeks ago the risk Was in the 7 to8 risk band to give you An idea of what the 04 risk band would Look like which is where we were going Into the last two That's where the 04 to 0.5 wristband is

That's where the price of Bitcoin was at The last two Habs and you can see actually that Bitcoin when those rate Cuts arrived Right here had that correction back to The 100 we moving average now what's Fascinating about that is that it would Correspond to the prior breakout zone so I I I feel like there's two different Ways that we can look at the market here Here that make the most amount of sense Number one is that this is not different From the prior cycles and we're kind of On track with where we should be and That could be viewed by maybe looking at The ROI after the after the low if you Look at the ROI after the low and you Compare this cycle with two cycles ago This is exactly where we were but you Can see that it at this point it did Cool off for a while and then did get a Drop kind of um you know this was day 520 or so about you know a month and a Half from now or so so you can view it Like that or you can view it from the Peak and still say we're where we should Be based on uh based on measuring it From the April top right if you take This out Peak to Peak if you measure it From the April top we're pretty much Where we should Be but again I can't help but think are We are we are we doing the same thing Again where everyone tries to come up

With a reason for why this time is Different but in reality it's not so my Thought process on the matter is this as We go into the Bitcoin Having if Bitcoin Accelerates into the having and post Having and into June right if it is Something like that where you know over Here in 2019 in fact before rate Cuts Arrived it actually did rally in until June last year we had a a local top in April but then we swept the high in June If we get something like that where Bitcoin continues to go up throughout The Summer then I would be more in tune with The idea of a left translated top where You get a top in 2024 as opposed to say 2025 however on the other hand if you Get a low Top by Bitcoin here as rate Cuts arrive and then instead of you know And that could still include sweeping The prior high right but if you get a Look kind of like we did over here with The spot ETF we we put in a new high on The day of the spot ETF for the cycle if On the other hand we see the market cool Off into the summer and go to say the 04 To 0.5 wristband or even the 0. 3 to Point4 wristband and we get the market More back in line with the prior two Cycles then I I think that perhaps the

Base case should still be that the cycle Is playing out just as it always has and You still could get a top in in late 2025 and in fact it was this very Intermediate bare Market that kind of Scared a lot of people off in Fact what happens if something like that Happens again where rate Cuts arrive And you go back Down scares a lot of people off and then Because everyone gets scared off the FED Starts printing money again and then you Get a QE bow Market I've said this Before and I'll say it again there's two Types of bull markets in crypto there's Quantitative tightening bull markets That occur during periods when the FED Is lowering reducing the assets on their Balance sheet that's what we got in 2019 And that's what we've got over Here and during those periods during Those periods eth Bitcoin goes down eth Bitcoin goes down During QT quantitative tightening bull Markets how many people for the last Couple of years have said that eth Outperforms Bitcoin in a bull market That's not true not without any Disclaimer because as you can see Bitcoin's been going up since late November of 2022 and eth Bitcoin has Been going down the entire time so that Is why I still think there is some Evidence to suggest the cycle may play

Out like it always does rather than a Left translated top I'm not completely Unsympathetic to the idea of a left Translated Peak there's a lot of really Smart people out there that frankly Provide a compelling case for it and I Could honestly provide a compelling case For it I just showed you guys some of The different charts but if Bitcoin does Not run into the highest wristbands the 0. N to one wristband this summer and Instead it just cools off like it did Back over here after the having it might Scare a lot of people off but perhaps It's just doing what it did last cycle And it the only reason that the top the Local the midcycle top came later was Because rate Cuts came later this cycle Than they did last cycle so you have Quantitative tightening bull markets Where Bitcoin goes up as e Bitcoin Bleeds all Bitcoin pairs bleed and then You have QE bull markets that go where Bitcoin goes up as eth Bitcoin goes up So eth outperforms Bitcoin in a QE Market but not a QT Market there's two Different different types of bull Markets so that is a very important Distinction and I think we've only Received more and more evidenced over The last year that Bitcoin really is Dependent somewhat on monetary policy Because last September when eth Bitcoin came back

Down to to this area right here there Were there were a lot of people that Thought that it had bottomed because That's when it had bottomed in the last Cycle Q3 of the pre having Year this development here which is what I said was likely going to happen this Development of the the devaluation of Eth against Bitcoin shows that the market is very Much dependent on monetary policy Whether we want to believe it or Not so if that is the case right if that Continues to be the case then you very Well could see a a repeat of what Happened over here sort of an Intermediate Lull in the market followed By because of rate Cuts right that occur During rate Cuts followed by the last Rate cut which leads to a QE bull market Where you maybe top out when you Normally do in the latter part of the Post tapping year so two different Theories if you're new here that's what Is you know has really been discussed Over the last uh year or so is this Cycle different is it not I honestly Think if you if you have a bias on it You're going to find the evidence that You're looking for um I I think we we'll Know soon enough we we'll know soon Enough if Bitcoin cools off into the Summer which it very well could we we've Seen gold breakout just like it did in

Mid 2019 we've seen eth Bitcoin break Down just like it did in mid 20 M mid 2019 all Bitcoin pairs still haven't Broken down yet but if it cools off into The summer then it just seems like it's The same thing as last cycle it's just That the the midcycle top was nine Months later about about n nine months Later if on the other hand after the Having Bitcoin just accelerates to the Upside once again then I will have to uh I will probably say that there's more Merit to the idea of of a left Translated top but that's what I'm Looking at right now and so to just Revisit my prediction back in 2020 what would be the fair value of Bitcoin at the fourth having of 40 to 50k I find myself today seeing a $64,000 Bitcoin 4 days before the having and I I Can't think I can't help but think to Myself wow back then when I made that Prediction I thought it was a lofty Prediction that frankly was maybe not You know not that likely to come true Because you know when Bitcoin is at 8K and and it really hadn't done Anything for a couple of years I wasn't Really that optimistic um of of you know Exactly how accurate this prediction Would be come to find out I was too Conservative potentially right I was too Conservative so it just goes to show how Difficult these markets are to predict

Um four years ago price of Bitcoin was At 8K I said fourth having 40 to 50 Instead we find ourselves at 64 and What's fascinating to me is that if we Were at 40 to 50K I think it would you Know a lot of people would think the the World's falling apart when in reality That would have been what the fair value Sort of suggested it would be and that Chart that chart that you see in that Video is just this chart right here um These regression bands here so at the Last taing we were at the fair value That's the other thing that why I said 40 to 50K back then because at every Prior having Bitcoin was at the fair Value so in no the fit to non-bubble Data so in November 2012 Bitcoin was at The fair value fit to non-bubble data in July of 2016 Bitcoin was at the fair value fit To quote unquote non-bubble data in May Of 2020 Bitcoin was at its fair value Fit to again quote unquote non bubble Data theoretically I should have updated This chart because it does I think need To get updated every cycle I haven't Really done it yet if I did update it it Would just shift it down very very Slightly but right now according to this Chart the fair value is around um 52k 52k But if you if you were to refit it based On this data over here it would actually

Probably put the fair value somewhere Between 40 to 50K which is why I said Back over here like we'll have to refit It um and and it'll be around 40 to 50K So we're above that level right now if On the other side of the having or Something we see that level just know That that is is is what the um you know The regression band would have Ultimately suggested for this part of The cycle so those are my thoughts going Into the Bitcoin having we will see what Happens uh as the having comes around It's only four days away and and we will Do an Update in maybe a month or so we'll see What happened you know after the Having if we just contined to rally on Into a left translated top or if it Cools off like 2019 and and we just kind of come back Down and and cool off until until the Last rate cut arrives if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up And again check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at intothe links in the description Below remember that sale is going to end After the having so lock in the low Right now you will get access to Thousands of different charts not just The ones I showed in this video but Thousands of different charts we have

Onchain charts social media charts risk Metric charts not only for Bitcoin but Also for hundreds of different Cryptocurrencies and macro charts and And charts for equities as well so make Sure you guys check that out lock in the Lower rate links in the description Below inth Crypt thank you guys For tuning in subscribe give the video a Thumbs up and I'll see you next time bye


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