Bitcoin: Summer Lull 2.0?

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing the idea of a summer lull 2.0 if you guys like the content make Sure you subscribe to the channel give The video a thumbs up and also check out The sale on into the cryptographers Premium at into the link Is in the description below now I wanted To talk a little bit about the idea of Another summer lull if you remember we We tend to talk about this idea as we Get into the second quarter and the General assumption is that a lot of Times oftentimes we will see crypto kind Of crypto interest sort of weighing in The summer months and and we talked About this back in 2021 When Bitcoin you know was around sixty Thousand dollars or so and and we Suggested back then that we could be Sort of due for a a summer law I mean All of this hype basically went Completely unchecked without any serious You know pullback of any kind and so Going into the summer time it seemed Like a perfect opportunity to to sort of See that interest weighing to see prices Drop back down and to allow people to Sort of reassess uh the market as a Whole in preparation for a move uh Ultimately higher and we ultimately did See that I mean the price of Bitcoin

Came back in You Know It ultimately Dropped back down around twenty nine Thousand dollars coincidentally where it Is today and then it popped back up as We got into the back half of the year I Was looking at just some of the Similarities here and and I again I will Say there's no reason to take this stuff To the bank They're not going to cash it in Um I tried but if you look at at it There is definitely some seasonality to It I mean you can see that we we sort of Had a pop-up in a January and then a Move into February another local high Here and then March and then and then This actually this top right here back In 2021 occurred on April 14th and and Then we have here move in January and Then another higher high in February Another higher high in March and then Potentially another local top in on April 14th now admittedly April 14th did Not Mark the top of 2021 it actually Came in in November and that's also not To say that we can't push higher I mean It is always possible that the Bitcoin Runs higher especially if equities can Catch a bid and and sort of overcome Some of the resistance levels that They're at But certainly there is a risk of a Summer lull right another summer lull 2.0 if you will now when we think about

The idea of a summer law and and Ultimately what came after it back over Here I guess the question is is are we Suggesting that the same thing needs to Play out no what we normally see in in Sort of the pre-halving years is we get Ahead of ourselves right like in 2015 Like in 2019 the market gets ahead of Itself it begins to sort of front run Having everyone gets excited they call For new all-time highs because Bitcoins Rallying and then by the latter part of The year or at least going into the Summer we can often come back down right We saw something actually of very Similar types of moves uh in 2019 note Though that this rally in 2019 lasted Until June right so it lasted a bit Longer than then than sort of topping Out in April or May it lasted longer in 2022 we had a rally that really started In January and and lasted until Basically the end of March or early April This rally in 2021 lasted until April 14th which is coincidentally at Least so far how long this one has Lasted so when we think about you know Is April 14th going to be the high of This of this rally right I mean it That's anyone's guess I I don't really Know but what I am saying is that I Would expect some type of of Summer Lull In the idea that that interest will

Somewhat Wane as we get into the summer Months and then and then the market Activity will likely start to pick up Again as we get into the latter part of The year and especially going in to the Next Bitcoin having in 2024 which is Only about a year from now okay Now one of the things that I've Mentioned many times is that recovery Years so the pre having years are the Years where both the Bulls and the Bears Get Wrecked if we think back 2021 was Mostly a year where the Bears got Wrecked now both sides ultimately Get Wrecked to some degree but when you Think about like 2020 or sorry the you Know the most to 2020 and most of 2021 It was mostly people who were bearish That were not really gaining on or you Know getting into the market and not Experiencing those gains but then if you Think back to sort of the bear Market Years the 2014 2018 and 2022 who was Getting wrecked right it was just the The Bulls the people who were always Bullish but the the pre-halving years Have a way to sort of bring us all Together because they humble everyone Right like they they humble both the Bulls and the Bears right that's what They do and and each time at least the Last two times they did it in very Different ways in 2019 What we saw was a a rally for six months

Or so followed by a bear market for About nine months so it it lasted for The rest of the year after June and then It continued on into early 2020 right so You can see this Rally from December Until June and then June through really March of 2020 was more or less just a a Sort of a secondary bear market and so What you had was you essentially had the The the Bulls getting wrecked for the The latter half of the year and then you Had the Bears getting wrecked for the First part of the year 2015 was somewhat Different 2015 was you know it was it Was sort of back and forth right first You wrecked the Bears and then you Wrecked the Bulls right and then you Wrecked the Bears again and then you Rack the Bulls again and the whole idea In the pre-halving years and what what They accomplish is they they get the Tourists out of the market okay because The the tourists come in and all they Really care about is is it going up 2x Tomorrow and if it's not then they leave So these periods have a way of sort of Getting you know sort of the the Tourists out of the market and getting Them to believe that that you know Bitcoin will not go back up because Every everything just ultimately gets Sold off and we come back down so what I'm suggesting is that the momentum for This rally it could already be over

Right if if it's going to follow 2021 If it's not over then you know perhaps You could see another push into may but I don't think this rally is going to Last for the duration of the year is the Point now I know that when I say that it Will elicit all sorts of emotions and I Can fully understand those emotions Because I have been in the in in those Shoes before thinking that these sort of These pre-hiving rallies were going to Lead to new all-time highs right I was a Little optimistic in 2019 about it Potentially happening and then it fell Short so we need to remind ourselves That anything is possible right just Because it didn't happen in 2019 doesn't Mean it can't happen in 2023 but I would Also argue that the narrative to bring Crypto prices back to the downside in The latter half of the year is very Clear and and it's Theory it's through a Theoretical recession or a recession Scare okay now we might say well why are You talking about a recession scare Right the unemployment rate is still Really low Um you know there's nothing really to be Worried about we're still putting in new Highs in Real GDP and you would be Correct right you would be correct be That as it may We are also aware that Um

That some of these things that we are Are sort of looking at though if we go Over to say like the workbench on on my Website and we add some some of these Interesting metrics like so let's add on Recessions let's add on Um you know claims so we'll add on Initial claims we can also add on Continued claims as well What you'll notice is that these metrics Here tend to lead the unemployment rate Right so they lead the unemployment rate So yes the unemployment rate takes a Long time to respond but you can see That initial claims continued claims They typically go up first before the Unemployment rate goes up and then by The time the unemployment rate goes up We're starting to near the end of that Business cycle and then of course we'll Get to the point where the FED Cuts or You know I mean they haven't even paused Yet right but they'll pause they'll cut And so on and so forth right so the Narrative is there I will say that the The reason for crypto potentially coming Back down in the summer Is you know I'd say how would have would Have more to do with Um the macro risk that it would than it Would the idiosyncratic risk of the Cryptoverse itself it would be my General Expectation so you know when when

Looking back at at Bitcoin Is this the local high for a while you Know could we push just a bit higher in Late April or early May yes like both of These outcomes are are potentially in The cards Um but I I don't think it should take Away from the idea that we likely will See prices fall back in especially as we Get into to the summer time and the Second half of the year that way by the End of the year we can look back and say Okay Everyone got wrecked right the Bulls got Wrecked the Bears got wrecked and and Now we're going to go into the having Year which is also likely going to Correspond to a shift back to lower Interest rates because the fed's gonna Have to Pivot you know at some point and Maybe by by late 2023 or early 2024 And at that point Um perhaps you know perhaps we will Trend higher so I mean it could it could Look something like this right where it Sort of spent some time in here Um it you know it comes back down and Then and then we sort of do something Like that I I think there's a a Potential outcome where and it doesn't Have to be a lower low right I mean I I Think there's a risk of that happening It could be a double bottom it could be A slightly higher low note that in 2015

It was a a double bottom right so you Can see over here in 2015 it was a Double bottom technically a lower low on Some exchanges 2019 was a uh our 20 2018 2020 it was a higher low Um so I I think we have to be prepared For for potential scenarios like that So again I'm of the opinion that That we will fall back in at some point Going into the summer months and and That it should hit it should hit the Altcoin market harder than it hits Bitcoin and and I've I've said that many Many times is that Bitcoin is is Relatively safer than the altcoin market Because it should eventually recover Whereas any individual altcoin we really Don't know and and we we see a lot of The altcoins are still in downtrends on Their Bitcoin pairs Um I think that will likely continue and Um and so I don't really I don't really See see a compelling reason for that not To continue Um the other thing to think about is and I I know this might be a question so I Want to go ahead and address it and is Well if if this does play out what about This because we know that back over here Ethereum that's where ethereum saw a Fairly substantial move to the upside Right was during the The May dead cat balance the Bitcoin had But what I would say is that we are more

This this is more similar to say a Period like 2019 Um like right here than it would be 2021 And after Bitcoin put in its local high In 2019 ethereum did not continue to Rally so like just don't don't take my Word for it let's just put it on the Screen if you were to show the ethereum Price on on overlaid with Bitcoin like You can see that ethereum basically Topped out when Bitcoin did you know Which is different than than 2021 where Ethereum rallied on up after Bitcoin hit A high but the the market conditions Were sufficient to support the ethereum Tsunami back in 2021 and we called for It right and we called for the ethereum Tsunami back then uh to go up after Bitcoin finally had this move to the Downside But I would argue that market conditions Macro conditions are are more similar to 2019 than they are 2021 now they're Completely different than both of them To be completely honest but they're more Similar to 2019 than they are to 2021 And so I don't really anticipate Ethereum continuing any type of rally Beyond where Bitcoin does so if Bitcoin Goes higher uh then yes it could drag Ethereum with it if but I imagine that Whenever Bitcoins downtrend begins Whether it already has begun or whether It starts in in a month or something I I

Think that ethereum will have a hard a Hard time finding a compelling reason to Continue to Rally any further Um and so yeah I would I would generally Argue that there is a good chance that This will be a summer lull 2.0 where we Come back in and and and and come back Down to these lower levels before Ultimately Um you know putting on our our rally Caps going into into sort of the having Year that is my general expectation I've Made that fairly clear for a long time That the recovery years are brutal for Both sides congratulations to those that Play Both Sides Um but that is my my general expectation Going into into the rest of this year is That we will likely see Um you know prices fall back in Uh the altcoin market should still bleed Against Bitcoin and uh by the end of This year Once the recession risk is either once It's avoided or it's happened and we're Coming out of it right like late this Year early next year that I think will Be the time to to really start to get a Little bit more optimistic on on on These markets and I know I mean like if This is your first time in crypto if you Join in 2021 I know what you're thinking You're probably saying well you know it Can go to an all-time high

Um even even now is what a lot of people Might think right and I'm not I'm not Going to sit here and say that it can't Happen it's just that I've been in those Shoes before I've thought that before And every single time it wasn't true Right every single time it wasn't true It was just like it was just like in uh In 2022 when we when we said we're Likely just going to get rejected off The 200 day back in March of of 2022 and Ultimately and we talked about how we Were putting in higher lows here and That some people might use this as Evidence to say that higher lows are a Good thing but in a bear Market you know Higher lows ultimately just get broken To the downside After the rejection off the tuna day and That's ultimately what happened so I'm Here to say again that I know a lot of People are are very optimistic about Price action because it has been moving Up but it's not really any different Than what we've seen in prehabbing years Right we've seen these types of Moves In In prehabbing years one other way that We can look at this is to go look at at The charts for the year-to-date Roi so I I want to take a look again at that And and we're gonna put on here 2023 and Then we're gonna we're gonna take an Average of 2015 and 2019. I've said many Times that I think the average of 2015

And 2019 will will sort of encapsulate Price action for the duration of this Year this means going below no lower Than 25 percent below the yearly open no Higher than 2.1 x above the yearly open This gives price action for Bitcoin a Range in 2023 of between twelve thousand Dollars and around thirty five thousand Dollars you might say well Ben like That's ridiculous right and you're Giving a range between 12K and 35k well Welcome to crypto my friends I mean this Is not this is not unheard of if you go Look at Um if you go look at modern portfolio Theory with with you know Bitcoin and Ethereum in it I mean expected annual Returns are you know to maximize a sharp Ratio are 65 plus or minus 80 percent so Yes I mean the ranges are large but That's also why you're here so let's try To do away with the idea that oh well This range is large look can happen Right Bitcoin could go between as low as 12K and as high as 35k this year now Does that mean it's going to go to 35k Now no it doesn't have to go there at All this year I'm just saying I think That price action will be encapsulated You know will be between 12K and 35k That is what I'm trying to say based on The time average year-to-date Roi of Bitcoin when you look at sort of what it Has historically done okay so that is

That's ultimately the point of talking About you know the prehabbing years 2015 2019 and 2023 We tend to get ahead of ourselves we Come back down second half of the year And and then you know by that point Everyone is sort of thrown in the towel And and the tourists have more or less Given up and then going into the having We finally start to to ultimately Trend Um in a more sustained way back up to The upside by the way there's also a Good chance that the price right now is What the price could be at the next Having right like so a year from now the Price could be around 28 000 Um you know just like going into this Having you know I mean over here we were At 14k but even though the having you Know the having was in in May We still were bleeding going into the Having right and it wasn't really until Just a couple months before the having That we really started to sort of trend Back up to the upside Um So just something to remember right we I've seen this play out time and time Again I just want you to be aware that This is a potential outcome we should be Prepared for for something like that to Play out once again and um and we will See we'll see ultimately where the year Uh takes us but I I hope I've been

Fairly fairly consistent in in my Arguments as to why I think this is Going to occur the main risk being a Recession risk in the back half of this Year Um and nothing necessarily to do with Crypto but that is what I think and and Because I think that what we also know Is that the altcoin market as a whole Can continue to push lower throughout The you know throughout the the recovery Years and even during the early phase of The of the um of the of the having year Right I know that's not a you know not Necessarily A a popular thing to say but I mean take a look at take a look at Some of the offense right I mean take a Look at at Ada USD and one way to Visualize this perhaps would be to look At at monthly candles You know look at at monthly High kanashi Candles for you know 480 USD what do you See You know you see this sort of initial Initial bear Market phase you see its Rally when Bitcoin rallies but then you Just see it come right back down and Then eventually you put in new lows so The point is you know could Ada go up if If Bitcoin if Bitcoin decides to rally On up in in late April or early May yes It could but it doesn't change the fact That it's likely going to push to new

Lows eventually or at the very least Retest the lows although I think there's A good chance it will push to a new low They go look at um go look at uh xrp you Know this is another great example of of An altcoin that you know everyone gets Super excited about during the having Year when it starts to Rally back up After a pretty brutal bear market and Then what happens right the downtrend Just continued into 2019 late 2019 and Even 2020 and it continued to put in new Lows so this is why I continue to say And by the way for for the more DJing Crew among you doge is the same thing You know I mean look Dogecoin did the Same basic thing right where it it Rallied on up with Bitcoin and then what Happened in the last half of the year Right it it just continued to put in new Lows so I I do think that it's Worthwhile to to sort of to think about How if Bitcoin comes back down the Altcoin market as a whole can put in new Lows okay even if Bitcoin doesn't and if Bitcoin does put in a new low then where Do you think that leaves the altcoin Market So that's what I'm trying to say there Are some other you know there are some Other things that we could look at Perhaps the last thing I will mention Which is is of course dubious at best Um is there are some similarities in in

These sorts of moves here by Bitcoin USD That we saw back over here in 2021 and And what we're seeing now as well we Talked about sort of the January February March and April Peak Um and it's actually a very very similar Move it doesn't necessarily mean it has To play out the same way but it is a Very a very similar move I'm almost Identical move In terms of like bouncing off the low Rallying up uh bouncing off the 20-week SMA and then coming back up here and Even even down to these weekly candles Right you get this rally up a red week Three green weeks in a row followed by a Red week sell-off that sort of started Uh sort of kicked off the next um the Next downtrend right so you have this Sort of rally on up red Three green and then a pretty big red Candle to bring us back down So that is is is of course something to Think about as well and if this is the Case then that means we we might not Hold the 20 week estimate uh throughout The duration of this year normally we Don't in the in the pre-halving Years uh You can see here we were we held above It for a long time but in September we Fell below it I mean it took till September it took a Long time but this was also after after Bitcoin had peaked in June in late June

Um so it rallied until June also note That it bottomed in December so it was December to June uh this time it Bottomed in November at least last year And and that would mean you know running Until what like May if it if it wants to But I'm saying that you know if it if it Runs till May that's fine but there's Also a risk that the the move is already Over As it stands right now so just something To think about we will of course Continue to watch Bitcoin USD I do Mainly focus in prehabbing years not on On bitcoin price action because I don't Really think it's that interesting I Think it's going to Um just sort of wreck both sides for a While and and more so focused on how do You protect yourself as an investor and The way that I think you do that is by Just uh you know sort of sitting sitting Out of the altcoin market until until The you know until the worst is behind Us in terms of in terms of macro in Terms of the cyclical behavior of crypto And and seeing seeing all coins Get Wrecked time and time again not only in The bear Market years but also the Prehabbing years and even early pre and Even early having years that is why I Continue to sort of treat the altcoin Market as as too risky of a play Now if Bitcoin USD falls back in okay

And and the dominance continues to go up Right if if the dominant sort of Continues to go up Then later this year We can talk about the altcoin market Right but then and only then right then And only then Um so that that's kind of where I Currently stand hopefully this video is Is is useful to you guys we'll see what Bitcoin does here over the next few Weeks but Um I I would imagine that the momentum From the rally will will sort of be Dying off by May if it hasn't already Done so if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up check out the Sale on into the crypto versus premium At into the and I will See you guys next time bye


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