Bitcoin Social Risk

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing the social risk if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out into the Cryptiverse premium at into the we've actually spoken Quite a bit about various risk metrics Including the social risk the social Risk has actually turned into one of my Favorite ones because it really does Give us a glimpse into overall sentiment At any given time now the social risk is Made up of five different components so We're going to go through each one Systematically so that we can better Understand what the social risk is Ultimately telling us the social risk Consists of YouTube subscribers to to Popular cryptocurrency YouTube channels So we're talking about new subscribers By the way new subscribers to my channel Has basically flatlined just to give you An idea we'll talk we'll look at it a Little bit closer here in a few minutes We're also looking at YouTube views to Popular cryptocurrency YouTube channels Followers to cryptocurrency analysts on Twitter new followers to cryptocurrency Exchanges on Twitter and followers to Cryptocurrency layer ones on Twitter so We're looking at the Delta we want to

Know like are there new people coming Into the space or are there not new People coming into space and this can Give us a better idea as to you know Where are we generally with sentiment Has it fully reset has it not and and Where are we where do we stand today in The context of where we've previously Been So before so you see so you can see what The social rest metric looks like now You know just take a snapshot of this in Your head just think about it we're Going to come back to this in a few Minutes after we fully understand what Is going on or what goes into the social Risk so one of them is YouTube Subscribers to cryptocurrency YouTube Channels and this is what it looks like Okay you can see down here which Cryptocurrency channels that we're Tracking and and this is essentially you Know tracking all these new subscribers Right to these to these cryptocurrency YouTube channels and you really can see How he had a lot of new people come in During this first Peak we had some new People uh subscribe in the second Peak But the first Peak was a bit more Spectacular in terms of just seeing an Influx of new people but since then you Know we've really just been in in a bear Market and this is a seven day estimate Of it if we just looked at our you know

Not a moving average it looks something Like this Um you might wonder why do we see like You know these spikes to the upside on The downside there are some channels uh That you know have over a million Subscribers mine's not one of them I'm Not that popular uh but there are some That have over a million and Um the denomination that's tracked in is Only by ten thousand so you won't see Any activity on those channels for a While then all of a sudden there'll be a Lot of activity it'll go up 10 000 Subscribers or something so that's why You see some of these spikes but to sort Of smooth that out you can take a moving Average of it you can take like a 30-day SMA and you can really see just how you Know just kind of where we are in terms Of in terms of social sentiment like new Subscribers to YouTube channels uh and You can see that it's mostly dried up Right there's not a whole lot of of new People Coming in right now And in fact if if you were to look I Mean essentially it's it's a ghost town Right if we're being completely honest Right it's a ghost town in terms of new YouTube subscribers now another thing we Can look at are YouTube views so YouTube Views are interesting because they Haven't dropped nearly as much as some

Of the other statistics although they Are finally starting to fall off a cliff And I want to talk about this you know I Will sort of bring it back because I Know things seem can seem somewhat Dreadful sometimes but uh we'll we'll Talk about that later in the video you Can see that it's it's really falling Off here okay so this is something I've Been monitoring quite closely and and You can see that YouTube views is mostly Bishop going sideways for a while it Popped up during some of the drum back In November but now it's really starting To fall off very very quickly okay so Keep that chart in the back of your mind If you're curious as to what it looks Like just for my channel This is what it looks like so this is What it looks like for my channel Um and and yeah so one of the reasons The main there's a spike here is because I was uh you know we were talking about Seeing a summer lull uh come and then When it came to fruition I think I saw Like an influx of of subscribers and Then uh so that sort of marked the the The the top in terms of new YouTube Subscriber or sorry new YouTube views on On my channel but that's what it looks Like for my channel so we also can break This down into Twitter Things so we have Twitter followers to Various Twitter analysts that focus on

Cryptocurrency this is what it looks Like again it's a pretty brutal bear Market out there Followers to exchanges Again it's just been going into you know We've been trending lower for a long Time and then to layer ones right Similar types of things and these spikes That you see are caused by you know some Of the major events that we've had like The Luna collapse Um you know the FTX collapse and when Some of that stuff happens you'll see a Lot of people come into the space just To sort of because it's hard to not want It's hard for people not to watch a Train wreck I think and so you'll see a Temporary Surge and new followers to a Lot of different accounts and then and Then sometimes those followers those new Followers will will leave pretty quickly So those are the five components that go Into the social risk okay Now going back to the Social Service you Might say well how do you get this well You combine all of them okay so let's do That so this is what it looks like for The YouTube Subs risk okay so we're Accounting for Um we are accounting for growing Adoption in this risk metric so you Might say well why should we assume it Has to go back to the same level every Single bear Market well we're not

Assuming that we're actually assuming That the base increases but you can see That YouTube Subs has gotten pretty low In terms of where it is on the risk Metric Twitter analysts subscriber followers Twitter analyst has also gotten pretty Low but what hasn't is YouTube views but It's finally falling off a cliff and This is something I've been watching so Closely and I've been really scratching My head about it for a long time you Know why is this staying so much more Elevated than some of the other risk Metrics and arguably I think it's Because a lot of people consume their Content via videos on YouTube and it's Sort of one of the last things to fall But you can see that it's moving down Pretty quickly I mean the risk on YouTube views was at 0.532 not too long Ago and now it's all the way down at 0.307 I mean it's been moving down Extremely quickly okay You also have Twitter the followers to Twitter changes In a downtrend and then layer ones again In a downtrend when you combine all of Them this is what it looks like okay now Remember it accounts for growing Adoption from one cycle to another so Even if we go to the 0 to 0.1 wristband It doesn't mean that we're going to the Same level of like Baseline activity

That we had in 2018 or sorry 2019 it Still is assuming we have increased Adoption even to go to that lower risk Level The one thing you know when I when we Think about 2019 and we think about 2023 and you Know I know a lot of people are Comparing the the move in 2023 to the Move in 2019 and and hoping for a much More sustained rally up to up to much Higher prices but if you were to look at The social risk the main difference Between this move over here And then this one is that when we were Going up over here The social risk had already sort of Bottomed down here and it was slowly Trending back up So we had to move higher and people came Back to the table right they were Interested What's different now with this pump is That it pumped but even a 60 pump could Not get people to come back to the table Like people just don't seem to Really Care is the honest truth and I I think To myself you know like if a 60 pump by Bitcoin is not going to bring people Back then it just seems like it's going To be a fairly apathetic year right We've talked about this many many times As is that 2023 is is likely going to be Somewhat like this and and that just

Because you get a pump at the beginning Part of the Year doesn't mean you're not Going to come back down and Um and and sort of grind it out at some Lower prices so when I look at this Chart I say well you know yes there's Some similarities cyclically between 2023 and 2019 But social sentiment has not real I mean It doesn't really look like it's reset Like it did back over here in 2018 2019. Now one of the reasons for that could be Due to things that are outside of of Crypto's control one thing that I think Is is playing is is causing a huge Impact a couple things first of all you Have the money supply so if we were to Go look at the money supply I mean it's Actually going down and this is not Something that was occurring back in in 2019 right we're still seeing the Expansion of the money supply back over Here in 2019. so now it's going down Though so that's arguably not a good Thing you might say why does that really Matter the one thing I think when you Think about the money supply and why It's important if you were to take a Look at say Um let's say like the s p divided by Let's say M1 and you were to just kind Of see what that looks like over a a Very long period of time But actually they actually changed the

Definition of it over here so it maybe Maybe we should actually look at it in Terms of M2 and not M1 but if you look At the s p divided by M2 I mean it Hasn't really moved in a long time I Mean we were at these same levels you Know in 1997. okay so there's some Element of if the money supply goes up Then asset prices will go up if the Money supply goes down then asset prices Go down and it's like is it really I Think sometimes people struggle like is It really not simple you know we've Talked about it before right if if we're Seeing the money sort of dry up and We're seeing liquidity dry up and we're Seeing really hawkish fad uh then yes I Mean it it could sometimes be as simple As that and that you have to consider That it's not worth fighting the fed and This is why I just continue to sort of Reiterate the same points on the channel It's not that I want to be a broken Record it's just that I want people to Recognize that there is a risk involved I right and thy risk namely is that You're fighting the FED which has not Usually been a great thing to do over Over long periods of time of course you Can get short-term rallies right you can See short-term rallies you can you can Always get them we can have them at any Time no one really knows when they're Going to occur but of course they can

Occur and and it doesn't necessarily Mean that the liquidity has been fully Drained but when you look at at it you Know when you denominate out the s p Divided by the money supply You can see that it's just going been Going sideways for so long so then when You think about the money's Supply and The fact that it's going down This could have some effect I mean this You know certainly could have some Effect on on social sentiment I mean We're just seeing a very hawkish Federal Reserve and and they are doing their Best to sort of drain liquidity from the System right we talked about this Analogy before right the FED is draining The water from the pool and it doesn't Mean that we can't all stand around the Pool with cups of water right liquidity And if enough of us throw in our our Liquidity at the same time then the Water level of the pool can temporarily Go up but it doesn't mean that the Water's still not draining from the pool Because the Fed unplug the you know Unplug the drain right the drains Unplugged at the bottom so liquidity's Still draining even if we throw enough Water in to temporarily cause it to rate To for the water level to rise up Doesn't mean it's still not draining so That's one potential reason the other Potential reason is just because of all

The all the events that have happened in In crypto you know over the last year I Mean it was just one Domino after Another so I do imagine that is is Taking a toll so I would say that you Know seeing the social risk come down Like this is a certainly Eye-opening in terms of like you know Where we are in the context of the cycle Right Because the social risk would say that It has not yet bottomed right like the Social risk has not yet bottomed what's Interesting is that when you look at the Social risk back in 2018 when we were at This level Bitcoin was more or less Going sideways at 6K and then you can See that the social risk when it hit About 0.128 that was when Bitcoin Actually had its its its final drop so Right now the social risk is still Slowly dropping but it hasn't really hit Those lower levels just yet another Reason that you might not have seen it Fully reset yet is because people have Been watching the cryptoverse like a Hawk right you think about what happened Back in June a lot of people call it at The bottom everyone's celebrating right It wasn't the bottom and then you have November and a lot of people are calling That the bottle and you know there's Still potential reasons to be concerned About that especially if we go into a

Recession later this year which is a Possibility even if even if people are Not willing to admit it it doesn't mean That it has to happen but it certainly Is a risk and if you look at the history Of of recessions they're normally caused By an overly aggressive Federal Reserve And Right now we have an overly aggressive Federal Reserve because of high Inflation okay so there's a reason that They're being aggressive there's a Reason that they're being much more Aggressive than they normally are and Therefore there is a risk right there's A risk that we go into a recession and So One potential reason that the social Risk has not yet fully reset is because You did not see that complete Wipeout Where you know where the market dropped Like 50 60 percent you know over the Span of a week or two we've sort of had Some drops but they've all been somewhat Um you know tempered in in what they've Done at least within the context of History okay so you know you've seen you Saw this drop right where it really Flushed people out this one certainly Flushed some people out but was it Really enough to reset the social the Social risk it wasn't right I mean the Social risk actually went up because Everyone wanted to tune in and see and

This is what we said before right like Markets don't tend to bottom when Everyone's watching it they bought them On apathy Um so the other thing I think to look at Is if you color code this over Ethereum's price we've talked about this A few times before And and maybe it's worth taking a moving Average to sort of clean it up a little Bit but you can see where the social Risk is right now in terms of color Coding it I mean it's you know a 30-day SMA puts the social risk at 0.215 or so Um so we still haven't really gone down To the depths of of where we know the Social risk could go uh sort of at the At the very end with regards to it Theory I've been very open and honest About my opinion on ethereum for a long Time I I don't think uh you know the I I Don't think it's over right I I do I Could easily foresee ethereum going to To much lower prices uh before we before We're ultimately out of this mess so Again not necessarily a popular view but It is a view nevertheless Um the other thing that I was you know With regards to the social risk is that If you go back and look at the raw Values if you look at the 30-day Estimate The 30-day SMA is currently at around 0.216

Risk okay 0.215 I guess Um and so Last time ethereum was at around this Risk level was back in you know at least Coming down right the last time the Socialist got this risk level Corresponded to ethereum sort of in this Range right here so I would argue that There still are reasons to you know to Be cautious one of the series that we've Talked about recently uh quite a bit in Fact we covered it you know extensively Is comparing you know this this bear Market with crash and you know Just to remind you the NASDAQ was Ultimately rejected off of the 50-week Estimate right we sort of had a pump up To it we came back down a secondary pump But we ultimately got rejected and then From there we bled from January until October So if you I mean if you take a look at Bitcoin here this is potentially just The same thing I mean it's likely not Going to play out the exact same way Nothing ever does but it's not that Dissimilar right you know we we came up To this Um you know first in January No the first so here it was it was December the first move up and then we We tagged the 50 week in January so December and then January for Bitcoin it Was January and then February

Um so I think you have to be at least Somewhat aware that if the recession Risk it does play out which you know Given where we are right now with fed Policy there's not if you look around at All the different metrics like there's No clear indication that we're in a Recession right now Um but we run the risk of inflation Re-accelerating as we've talked about And the FED going higher than they Probably should in terms of raising Interest rates and and ultimately Sending us into that into that recession So that's what you know this is one of The main things that I'm I'm currently Watching right now is Bitcoin simply Just going to play out in the same way And and just slowly bleed for I mean a long time It's a possibility right and I mean I Know it's honestly a popular possibility But it's one you should consider I don't Necessarily imagine that everyone over Here considered it but remember this Came off of a sixty percent reality to The 50 week back with the NASDAQ I mean There were a lot of similarities we Talked about right a 77 percent 77 move to the downside A 60 rally to the 50 week followed by The final Plunge A 53 drop from there Okay and then again with Bitcoin we're

Basically looking at the same thing here I mean and by the way we also had a Recession back then too you know we have A 77 drop we get that You know 60 rally into the 50 week so The only question is well is it going to Ultimately play out the same way and and If it did and we had a a 53 drop from Sort of this level here then it would Put Bitcoin all the way around twelve Thousand dollars so And maybe actually slightly less maybe Like 11 5 or so so I think we need to be Aware of this okay Um and do that with what you will I mean I I think the main thing that I I look At right now Is the the continued deterioration of The social risk Which was not happening during the pump In 2019. I mean there's a clear Distinction here right like people were Coming back to the table And getting excited again During this rally Here that's not occurring in fact maybe We'll call this social Divergence right Price going up Social interest is going down so right You would think something's got to give Right like either people need to come Back to support the rally to sustain it Or if they don't then it means the price

Has to come back down to go back to Levels that sort of reflect actual Interest in the cryptoverse at this Stage now I know this seems somewhat Doom and Gloom And um I've gotten that feedback a lot For the last 15 months or so but one Thing to consider with the NASDAQ is That if it does play out I mean you can Still see what ultimately came after it And this is ultimately the vision that I Would have for the crypto verse right Like you know assuming this plays out You still have this to look forward to And so I know I know maybe it sometimes Seems it might seem like I'm I'm I'm Sort of rooting for for the prices to go Down but it's more so just trying to Sort of figure out what's actually Happening and how can I plan for that Right because you you might look at a Chart like this and say You might look at this and just think of How bad it was okay or you might look at This and say wow Look at that opportunity right I mean Like you know these opportunities don't Come around that often And when they do it can create Generational wealth right it certainly Can and and so that's the argument right Is is that in order to create Generational wealth One of the main ways to do it is to take

Advantage of of moves like this and There still is a chance that crypto is Going to play out in the same way and It's nothing against crypto right it's Just a painful process right it's like a Painful process that we go through to And get to the next level I mean I do Think the next level will come for Crypto eventually but I mean I would I Would argue that this year is is likely Going to be still a somewhat painful Year because we're still fighting the FED I mean the crypto is still fighting The fed and normally the FED wins right I mean normally the FED ultimately has The last say and it's until they they Pivot so then you'll see markets pivot As well so this is what I'm looking at The social risk I think is an Interesting way to measure Um you know where we are and and so you Can still see it's it's dropping quite Quickly uh just like it was back in September of 2018 right so something to Consider thank you guys for tuning in Make sure you subscribe give the video a Thumbs up I'll see you guys next time Bye


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