Bitcoin: Social Risk

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing the social risk if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out into the Cryptoverse premium at into the let's go ahead and jump in The social risk I think provides a Fascinating view of the cryptoverse Because it helps us understand or Anticipate future moves within the asset Class it helps us to better understand Where relative strength may be if the Social risk is trending down or going Sideways at low levels then it generally Means that Bitcoin dominance is going up If the social risk is putting in higher Lows It generally means that the Bitcoin Dominance is going down which is what Many of you have come to know as alt Season So I have been of the view for a long Time that after the having we would see A drop in Social risk not because of Anything wrong with Crypto but just simply based on monetary Policy right High interest rates uh it It's really starting to to squeeze the Consumer and it just really puts a drag On risk assets right especially Especially higher risk assets like fults Against lower lower relatively lower

Risk assets like Bitcoin so with that in Mind right with that in mind we talked a Lot about how monetary policy plays a Bigger role than I think a lot of Investors would care to admit and while There have been a lot of people Speculating that everyone would come Back in droves to the cryptoverse after The having my point was you know after The having if someone hasn't already Come like why are they then going to Come after the habing right now I do Think they will come after the habing But not immediately after and the reason I say that is because I think that it's Going to require looser monetary policy For them to come back so my guess as to What happens as the social risk is Coming back down here and staying low People I think are going to start giving Up on altcoins on their Bitcoin Pairs And that's where I think all Bitcoin Pairs will will finally go into final Capitulation process when people are Like oh crap all these people all these Influencers that said just wait till After the having that's when alt season Occurs what happens if that doesn't Happen immediately some of the shorter Term investors might be like I'm not Dealing with this I'm just going to get Out and that's where you get sort of This higher low or potential double Bottom in Social risk now remember last

Cycle when the social risk came back Down here in mid mid 2019 it also Corresponded to Gold breaking out it Also corresponded to e Bitcoin breaking Down that's ultimately where Bitcoin Dominance found the top so my guess is That Bitcoin dominance is going to top Sometime a little later this year as the Social risk is down here when no one Cares anymore because when people don't Care the bid for altcoins relative to Bitcoin sort of disappears if you're not Familiar with what the social risk is It's essentially an average of five Different metrics and that those metrics Are new YouTube subscribers to various Crypto YouTube channels views to various Crypto YouTube channels new followers to Analysts on Twitter who focus on Cryptocurrency uh new followers to Exchanges on Twitter and new followers To layer ones on Twitter and if you take All of those and you average them out You get something that looks like this And you'll see that there's sort of an e And flow to the cryptoverse right we go Through periods where it's going up and Periods where social interest is going Down and really it's been going down Since May of 2021 and then it found a Low here in September of 2023 it also found a low over here in December of 2018 remember I've said it Seems like a lot of things in this cycle

Are shifted by about 9 months in the Sense that you saw this you know you saw Some of these rallies by some altcoins Just like you did over here in 2019 But Ultimately because the social risk was Not in a durable uptrend back to the Highs those altcoins just kept on Bleeding back to bitcoin as the social Risk ultimately came down and that's What represented true capitulation by All Bitcoin pairs right here it was After everyone bought over here thought They were a genius with altcoins and Then those alts went back down and put In new lows against Bitcoin and you're Actually seeing that take place right Now right you're actually seeing that Take place right now it's not this like Nebulous future concept you're seeing it Take place you can see it throughout the Cryptoverse right eth Bitcoin just put In new lows a couple weeks ago Ada a Bitcoin it's below 800 sets we talked About this forever that it was likely Going to go below 800 stats and now it Is madic Bitcoin you know I mean a lot Of these altcoins just keep on dropping Against Bitcoin they keep on putting in New lows and the reason and and Collectively you can see that Bitcoin Pairs are struggling and I think it's Not going to take much longer for them To break down and the reason is because No one's here right I mean just no one's

Here to Care this is a view I've expressed for a Long time and it it's made a lot of People upset with me because they've Always said well you know alt season's Going to occur they they thought it Would occur after the having right after The having because of whatever reason But my point has always been well what If it's not based on that what if it's Is based on monetary policy and the only Reason the altcoins were going up to Begin with was because Bitcoin was going Up you see I mean that's the same thing That's the same Trend as 2019 right Bitcoin went up it took alts with it but Bitcoin outperformed you know the people That give me a hard time about altcoins Because they made money on alts yes some Alts went up but most of them Underperformed Bitcoin just like most of Them did in 2019 yes there's some that Didn't but most of them have and as the Social risk comes back down over here That was in you know September of 2019 that was ultimately where all Bitcoin pairs finally bottomed out right As as the social risk came back down Which is where we currently are headed Right you can see that we're going back Down into those lower risk bins so my Guess is that just like over here all Bitcoin pairs are going to bottom out my Guess is this

Summer so and a lot of times in the Summertime is when is when the Bitcoin Dominance goes up right so keep an eye On this because we saw that happen last Cycle we saw uh social risk go all the Way back down to some pretty low levels And it was in this area as the social Risk found a low and then sort Of bounced around those lows that's Where all Bitcoin pairs were holding Support when the social risk finally Started to hold support so that's what I Would look for right that's what I would Look for over over here and again people Just simply haven't come back yet that's The reality and if you don't believe me Go look at YouTube views you know I mean Look at this major spike going into March and then it's been bleeding ever Since you know you could I mean Currently these all these YouTube Channels here are averaging around 920,000 views a day but if you look at a 3day SMA that's on a 7-Day if you look At a 3-day SMA they're averaging 877 Views 877,000 views a day and then if You look at today it's actually slightly Up at at 1.1 million but um I mean is is Very much a stochastic process look at a 30-day estimate of it and you can really See how it has fallen off quite a bit After the having and you can also see That in terms of YouTube Subscribers um we've seen that fall off

A lot right I mean that's been dropping A lot too so I'm not of the opinion that You know that this trend is going to Last forever but I am of the opinion That it can last until the FED pivots to Looser monetary policy and so that's why I think there's a decent chance that as The social RIS comes down into this area And spends some time over here that's Ultimately where I think all Bitcoin Pairs bottom out which is why I think it Could actually bottom out uh this this Summer I'm expecting you know a Potential rate cut um within a few Months or so which could ultimately Mark The bottom for all Bitcoin pairs um so This is something that's really Interesting to follow and of course we Can also look at at other things as well Um besides YouTube views uh there's Other you know there's certainly other Metrics that we can look at like the um Uh Twitter if you look at Twitter Followers to various analysts on Twitter You will see that we saw a pretty big Surge but now it's actually you know Kind of gone negative here over the last Couple of days or so if you look at Exchanges also very you know a ton of Height going into the having and then It's actually been bleeding quite a bit Ever since then and then also the same Thing with layer Ones right a lot of hype going into the

Having and then a big sort of Correction And and now it's sort of getting back to Where it was before so again my thought Process is that what If this is your sort of your midcycle Top right last cycle midcycle top was in June of the prehab year and then rate Cuts occurred what if now at the Midcycle top is March of the having year And then rate Cuts occur you go back Back down into these lower risk bands For social risk all Bitcoin pairs Finally bought them out this summer and Then later on this year we get looser Monetary policy and then people start to Come back to the cryptoverse and then Maybe in you know next year sometime you Get you actually get the alt season that Everyone wants where Bitcoin dominance Starts to go down but there's no denying The fact that everyone who has spent the Last two and a half years calling for All Season uh were too early they were Too early because the Bitcoin the Dominance of Bitcoin just continues to Go up you know I mean again people can Say they want but for the most part they Would have just been better off with Bitcoin than than having a lot of Exposure to the altcoin market because While some alts do get nice bounces a Lot of them just end up bleeding back Down and and ultimately putting in new Lows against Bitcoin and you can see

That all Bitcoin pairs are starting to To roll over again potentially here Others Bitcoin you know also showing Some weakness I think it's going to keep On Fading and I think that the way to Figure out when this trend is over when This this move is over is to look at the Social risk and see all right is it Bottoming out or not or is it just Continuing to go down so far it's Continuing to go down uh but we will Keep an eye on it again if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe give The video a thumbs up check out inth Cryptoverse premium at inth cryptoverse Decom and I will see you guys next time Bye


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