Bitcoin: Social Risk

Hey everyone and thanks for dripping Back into the cryptoverse today we're Going to talk about Bitcoin and we're Going to be discussing the social risk If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and also check out the Sale on intothe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse Docomo Website we recently spoke about price Risk for Bitcoin which is based on Nothing more than historical bitcoin Price movements but in this video we're Going to be looking at a different risk Metric which is called the social risk And the social risk is a good indicator To help us better Identify if retail is interested in Crypto or if they are not now this risk Metric right here is is made up of five Different parts it's made up of YouTube Sub subscribers to various crypto YouTube channels YouTube views to Various crypto YouTube channels new Followers to various cryptocurrency Analysts on Twitter or X followers to Exchanges on X and new followers to Layer ones on X and when you show all of These you get something that looks like That and the general idea is that if we Average those Out then we get something that looks Like this now to break these down into

Their constituent Parts I just want to Take a brief look at maybe one or two of Them for instance if you were to look at YouTube views these are views to various Cryptocurrency YouTube channels you can See that there is a fairly low social Interest in crypto back in 2019 Even during the parabolic rally by Bitcoin now there was some increase in Social activity you can see that these Channels here went from averaging around 20 to 30,000 views a day all the way up To about 114,000 a day so we did see about a 4X Move in views over that time Period however it quickly faded once the Bitcoin rally was over In 2020 you will notice that really YouTube views did not really start to Pick up until after Bitcoin broke new All-time highs and continued that rally For several months where altcoins Started to durably gain against Bitcoin and so one of the things I've Been talking about for a long time is is The rally more like 2020 Where we break new all-time highs under Low interest rates in QE or is it more Like 2019 where we rally we didn't break New all-time highs back then but it was During High interest rates and QT Quantitative tightening and I I Ultimately think the answer to that Question is that it's a combination of

Both because in 2019 we also saw social Activity go up about 4X or so before Dying off after the rally was over but That did not see new all-time highs this Rally has seen new all-time highs more Similar to say 2020 and and and 2017 so It seems to me like it's a combination Of the two now the reason why following This is interesting for a lot of Different people that are interested in Crypto is because it helps us Identify if a real alt season is going To occur or if the altcoins will just Simply bleed back to the king Bitcoin When social activity picks up like this Like it did in December of 2020 that is Precisely where the dominance of Bitcoin Went down a lot but it was only as Retail continued to come in and Continued to lift prices of the altcoin Market in 2019 we saw increase in Social Activity but as soon as the Bitcoin Highs were in social activity fell off a Cliff to look at a few other things we Could look at Twitter or X so this is New followers to various analysts on Twitter and there has been a bit of a Surge recently although it is starting To come back in and so this I think is One of the most important things to look At over the next couple of months or so Because I think it will help us identify Whether the any of these trends that We've seen in all Bitcoin pairs will

Durably change or if they won't and and Bitcoin dominance continues to go up Going back to YouTube views you can see That there has been a spike recently and We sort of hit some lows over here at Around you know 400,000 views a day and Now they've gone up to a little over a Million views a day if you were to break This down into say a three-day You can see there was a big spike right Around the time that Bitcoin hit new All-time highs where these these Channels were averaging a little over a Million about 1.25 million views a day It has fallen back in a little bit here As um as Bitcoin you know continues to To just sort of basically stay near the Same prices and and people uh aren't Tuning in as much as they were a week Ago but social activity is still Somewhat elevated and so when we go and Look at something like the social risk We must understand first of all that From one cycle to another the base Should be higher right yes you know at Various points crypto can get boring but The general expectation would be from One cycle to another there is an Increase in people who just stick around No matter what and so that is already Baked into the social risk now in 2019 You can see that ultimately the social Risk topped out somewhere between. 3 to 04 risk and it was unable to durably go

Beyond the. 3 to point4 wristband we Once again find ourselves in the. 3 to Point4 wristband and so I I do think That this metric will be Instrumental in terms of understanding Bitcoin you know not only Bitcoin USD But more important ly alt Bitcoin pairs Right alt Bitcoin pairs because again I Mean there's there's no denying the fact That if you were to go look at say a Heat map of alt Bitcoin pairs over the Last Year most of them have underperformed Bitcoin right most of the altcoins have Bled to bitcoin over the last year or so You can see that 155 of the top of the top 200 have have Ultimately bled back to back to bitcoin And so a lot of people have sort of Speculated on well is that going to Change and I I've seen a lot of people Say well like in 6 months this chart Will look completely different and that Could be true but I I ultimately I think It comes back down to whether retail Comes back in mass or do they not right And I I do think that's ultimately what It boils down to and look right now We're still at levels that we've Seen in you know the 2019 rally and also Late 2020 right like Q3 2020 like these Are not uh you know the social interest Right now is not what it was in 2021 It's just not and I mean I it can feel

Like it sometimes but it's not and I Mean to give you an idea like in 2021 a lot of channels were getting like A 100,000 new subscribers a Month most of these channels are nowhere Close to that right now so there's not As much social interest in crypto right Now compared to 2021 the main question that's worth Thinking about is will it go back up to That level or will it you know do Something like over here where it fades For a little bit and then durably goes Up again as QE returns and again I it's Hard to know the answer to that question But one thing to think about if you go Over and and look at say like um the the Bitcoin dominance this is Bitcoin Dominance without stable coins and you Were to Overlay the social risk one of the Things you'll notice is that as the Social risk goes down and stays at low Levels the Bitcoin dominance goes up Right so it went down and even though it Had a rally here it still stayed at low Levels and during that time do of Bitcoin continued to go up even though There was over a 300% rally by Bitcoin Here we've seen dominance continue to go Up since May of 2021 and social interest Has been in a downtrend a spike up Recently but the biggest question to ask Ourselves again is is it like

This where it fades let's say following The having or is it like this where a Lot of retail is is on the way and you Know it's it's not an easy question to Answer because in terms of monetary Policy we are more similar to 2019 in Terms of you know in terms of high Interest rates and and and quantitative Tightening I'll just show you guys the Same stuff that we've been talking about Forever so in terms of the balance Sheet of of of the Federal Reserve QT QT and ultimately you know You can see that social interest did not Continue whenever the local top for Bitcoin was in but and also interest Rates were high right during a Fed pause During a Fed pause right over here this Rally was during a period where interest Rates were were you know basically back At the low bound um and and so in terms Of monetary policy we are more similar Much more similar to 2019 than late 2020 and I think that's The reason why Bitcoin dominance I think That's the reason why Bitcoin dominance Continues you know has been in this in This uptrend right is because of Monetary policy being where it's at if Monetary policy were not where it's at You might see something like this right Where where Bitcoin dominance is in a Downtrend right this was after the Fed Pivoted right there and so I think that

Is sort of what a lot of people should Think about is that monetary policy Shows us that all Bitcoin pairs are Bleeding and that Bitcoin is is taking That liquidity and and and using that as Fuel and so that has ultimately led to New highs unlike 2019 and so I was always curious you Know what would happen if you had a QT High interest rate environment where Bitcoin rallied but it actually took out The highs which is again is is different Than 2019 the reason why that's important is Because again in 2020 when we took out The highs that is ultimately when social Interests started to come back into the Cryptoverse right once we took out the Highs and you can see over here we have Taken out the highs so going back to the Social risk you can see that as Bitcoin Took out the highs there has been a Surge in the social risk back up to the. 3 to point4 risk band does this Continue or does it fade like 2019 and I I think that is is worthwhile to follow And you know you can follow it on on Some lower time frames of course right You could always go over to the YouTube Views and and see you know how is it you Know what is it doing on on a daily time Frame you know is it is it going up is It going down you can see there was a Spike here when we hit new highs

Recently it's though it sort of dropped Back down to sort of background levels So again is that sustainable or is it Not now my view as I've made clear for Forever for the for the last 2 and a Half years my base view my base case is That Bitcoin dominance continues to go Up and so because of that whenever I see Altcoins rallying against Bitcoin in the Short term to me that just means that Liquidity will eventually go back over To bitcoin right and you know that's Ultimately led to new all-time Highs but The reason I assume that's my base case Is because of monetary policy if Monetary policy were different then when You say look at a heat map Then you might expect a lot of altcoins To outperform bitcoin especially after a Bitcoin parabolic rally to new alltime Highs but again we're still not seeing That now some people might say well you Haven't seen it just because it hasn't Happened yet and it's it's just around The Corner but I I continue to to look at at At sort of you know what what Bitcoin USD is doing and and Bitcoin dominance And I I say You know despite all the Proclamations uh that that do Is is not looking great you know it's Basically just spending a lot more time Up here at the highs and makes me think That eventually it's just going to break

Out as altcoins bleed back to bitcoin And so if I were to change that view at Some point I think I would need to see Looser monetary policy lower rates Or to see a durable change in the social Risk the the social interest and not Just sort of like a a a oneoff day a Couple of days where you get a spike Where you get 2 million views right two And a half million views two million Views there only to return back down to Background levels so what's going to Happen you know look at YouTube Subscribers we've seen a surge there Recently as well no doubt about it right There's definitely been a surge look at It on the on the daily time frame right A surge right around the time that Bitcoin hit new highs it has fallen back In a little bit though um to sort of Some background level so will this Continue or will it not and that's kind Of I I I think what everyone should be Focused on you know and and I know that If you're new Here it's easy right it's certainly easy To to sort of dismiss all Bitcoin Pairs And and Bitcoin dominance and all that Stuff but there is this sort of this Reality that that Bitcoin is dragging The altcoin market up with it not the Other way around right so Bitcoin is Leading and I've always said that right Like Bitcoin would lead any type of bull

Market and that altcoins can hitch along For the ride but it's Bitcoin that leads It and and so that I think is is what We're ultimately seeing and I I do Expect a big Breakout by dominance uh You know probably within the next month Or so I mean it might not occur you know Today but it could occur you know later This month it could you know very well Could just occur in April during the Having I've said before this is very Much sort of a narrative driven market And just like eth Bitcoin the eth Bitcoin valuation rallied into the merge I suspect that maybe Bitcoin dominance Rallies into the having um and the Having is is you know just over a month Away so I would say look with social Risk I think continuing to follow that And see what it does could provide Insight into the likely outcome of those All Bitcoin pairs you know is social Risk just starting to roll over again Like all these other Peaks and like 2019 Where it just goes back to Bitcoin or is it going to do something Like this like 2020 where it rolls over And then spikes up right that's Ultimately the question uh to think About and I I think that by looking at The social risk that should help answer That question over the coming weeks Again my base case is that dominance Goes up um as people as people go you

Know recognize the relative value of Bitcoin against these against the other Different crypto currencies but you know I could be wrong about that that's just Been my view for a while and um we we Will see if it you know if it continues To play out like that I mean right now Bitcoin is is around $73,000 uh dominance just below 54% seems like there's a crescendo here Of a lot of different things um that We've talked about in a lot of Prior Videos so we'll see if it if it Continues to reach that uh cresendo into The having and I will continue to follow The social risk to see if it follows the 2019 move or if it follows say a late 2020 move again evidence for both cases 2019 more similar in terms of monetary Policy 2020 more similar in terms of the Fact that we actually hit a new all-time High unlike 2019 my guess it's a Combination of both that's my guess I Think you're you're probably you're You're probably not going to see social Risk you know immediately go up all the Way up Here but you can already see that it's Outpaced what we saw in 2019 right if You look at sort of this horizontal line Across the screen where our at a a Slightly higher level than we were at in In 2019 so again that's something to Think about too and I've said before I

Don't think it's 2019 and I don't think It's 2020 I think it's 2024 I think it's A combination of both prior outcomes Because I think this cycle the Cycles Will continue to throw us curveballs Every step of the way if you like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Again check out the sale on into the Crypt premium at intothe you Can of course get access to the social Risk as well as many other charts so Make sure you guys check that out links In the description below I will see you Next time bye


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