Bitcoin: Social Risk

Hey everyone and thanks for tripping Back into the cryptiverse today we're Going to talk about Bitcoin and the Social risk if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and again Check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at into the let's go ahead and jump In so as you guys know I like to follow This social risk in the cryptocurrency Asset class because I want to better Understand if retail investors have Reached the point where they're no Longer capitulating at least in terms of Their interest in the space now the way In which we quantify this is Um based on five different indicators so It's based on YouTube Subs to Cryptocurrency YouTube channels YouTube Views followers to analysts or Cryptocurrency analysts on Twitter Exchanges on Twitter and their ones on Twitter and just to give you a brief Example this is what YouTube views looks Like for different cryptocurrency YouTube channels you can see that you Know there is a lot of interest back in Late 2020 uh and and 2021 and even in Early 2022 but since then it's been sort Of slowly going down and if you zoom Into these parts you can see that it has Been more or less just been putting in Lower highs and lower lows and and right

Now it's actually back in a downtrend You of course see this for a lot of Different social metrics for instance Just to check in on one more if you were To look at Twitter followers to Exchanges you can see that it has been Slowly fading back down and maybe one More Twitter followers two layer ones Because also slowly fading back down to Pretty low levels now if you look at the Context of history and an account for Increasing increasing adoption from one Cycle to another you can normalize each Metric between a value of zero and one When you combine all five of these into A single social risk you get a chart That looks like this and what you'll see Is that the social risk has just been Putting in a series of lower highs and Lower lows now I think that's Interesting to think about the social Risk with regards to bitcoin but it also Might be more interesting to think about It with respect to to the altcoin market And and how it relates to bitcoin Dominance okay as the social risk goes Down you have to ask yourself if you're If you're if you're just yoloing into The altcoin market constantly because Someone on Twitter promised you all Season you have to ask yourself who is The marginal buyer if people are leaving Crypto and not joining crypto then who Exactly do you think is going to buy

Your all coin bags now that's not to say That there won't be someone to buy them A couple years from now right assuming The project provides utility or Um or can at least rejuvenate interest Somehow in when when excess liquidity Liquidity returns to the markets but in The short term I have maintained for the last year and A half that these calls that you see all Over the crypto verse for all season are Incredibly premature and despite just How crazy the altcoin market has seemed At times it has been nothing but a Series of lower highs and we have seen That play out For over well over a year now and as I've said every step of the way when Altcoin season was promised by many I look at this chart and I say who's the Marginal buyer Now if we were at a period where the Social risk were bottoming out and Starting to Trend back up Like over here Then you could at least start to think Okay Maybe the marginal buyer is coming back You know but and even when it was going Up over here alts were still in a Downtrend at that time But we haven't even reached a level in The social risk where we've convincingly Put in a bottom over here we

Convincingly put in a bottom and it Started to Trend back up this is still a Series of lower highs and lower lows and And when you think about it and you look At at total three the altcoin market it Should come as no surprise that We got rejected by the 20-week moving Average which also happens to be a Rejection by the 50-week moving average This again is the altcoin market you Know now think back to April with all The calls of all season think back to August with all the calls of all season This is just a series of lower highs no One I don't think will look at this Chart and say hey remember the all Season of April of 2023 or remember the All season of October 2022 or August of 2022 no All of them were just bear Market Rallies in the altcoin market Right lower high A lower high A lower high Potentially lower high now eventually we Will put in a higher high But that hasn't happened yet And even these were all lower highs So If we're being honest with ourselves Every call for all season was incredibly Premature we've talked about this time And time again like you don't expect all Season to occur during a bear Market

Year and it typically doesn't occur During a prehabbing year either Doesn't mean that all coins can't go up But the all the alt season that you seek Is not a 2X move or a 3X move right when People talk about All Seasons I'm Talking about like 10x moves and 20x Moves and so on and so forth this is not What all season looks like Think back a couple of weeks ago when or A few weeks ago when the altcoin season Was moving up quickly and I made a video Just before I went out of town saying Guys you know this is a pretty Impressive rally by the altcoin market But is it Different than what we previously Expected could this just not be a wick Did it not just end up being a wick We ended up getting several weekly Closes still below the 20-week moving Average It just drew a lot a lot a lot more People back into the market but remember Total three is tracking relatively Closely net liquidity right if you Overlay net liquidity on the chart The altcoin market has tracked it fairly Well so I say once again There will be a lot of people that will Call for all season and eventually they Will be right but it hasn't stopped People from buying the dip on the Altcoin market every step of the way

Down and eventually when the altcoin Market finally starts to recover there's No guarantee that the all coins that you Bought are the ones that even recover to New highs it could be a new A new class of cryptocurrencies now some Of them from the prior cycle will likely Eventually go to new Highs but you must Consider this reality that many of them Will not hopefully the ones if you have Been buying some hopefully the ones do Go to new highs that you are getting but This is why I said a year and a half ago That alts are simply too risky in the Bear Market year and the prehabbing year Because they just simply bleed against Bitcoin and last cycle when Bitcoin Didn't even put in a new low remember it Put in a higher low in 2020 the altcoin Market put in a lower low So when you think about the social risk You must remember that if the social Risk is putting in lower highs and lower Lows and you're calling for All Season You must ask yourself who's the marginal Buyer This represents people leaving the Cryptiverse interest is leaving Eventually it'll probably bottom out Maybe it'll bottom out within the next Few months But all all season calls in my opinion Are still premature and and the social Risk likely has further to fall if you

Look at a 30-day moving average of it You can see that so far the 30-day SMA Has gone down to about 0.13 we saw it go All the way down to 0.06 or so in 2018 We saw it go down to 0.08 in 2019 Um and so far it's the 30-day SMA has Only gone down to 0.13 now what's Interesting is since the last time I Made this video just the raw data of the Social risk did go down to about 0.05 But we haven't spent a lot of time there You can see that we previously in the Last cycle we did a decent amount of Time in that 0 to 0.1 wristband I would Argue that we're almost there not quite We did go there briefly but I think We'll likely spend at least a few more Weeks if not a few more months in that Point one or in that zero up to 0.1 Wristband The last thing that I wanted to show you Is the the Bitcoin dominance and the Social risk on the same chart so if you Look at at the social risk right so if We were to pull up Um sorry if we were to go if we were to Go pull up the social risk and add that And we were to pull up the dominance Without stable coins and add that you Can see in fact that as as social risk Goes down dominance goes up like last Cycle right right now social risk goes Down dominance goes up Hopefully this video is insightful in

Terms of navigating the cryptoverse I Think the social risk is quite a Fascinating way to view the markets and I I don't I I think it it probably could Be used more frequently but Um this is an interesting metric Hopefully you guys enjoyed it again if You guys like the content you can check Out the sale on into the crypto versus Premium at into the And of course you can get access to the Charts that you've seen me present thank You guys for tuning in make sure you Subscribe and I'll see you next time bye


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