Bitcoin Season Vs. Altcoin Season

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin Season versus altcoin season if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and also check out into the Cryptoverse premium at into the let's go ahead and jump In so of course if you've lived in the Cryptoverse for long enough I'm sure you Will have heard things like altcoin Season and in Bear markets many people Often dream about altcoin Seasons that Occurred during bull runs but one of the Things I wanted to talk about in this Video is to really distinguish Bitcoin Season from altcoin season and in this Instance we're referring to basically Anything that is not Bitcoin as an Altcoin although oftentimes I I sort of Put ethereum in a different basket than The rest of the altcoin market so the Way you can understand this chart is we Go up here and we pick an asset in this Case we've picked Bitcoin and I'm Looking at an Roi or a return on invest Time frame of over the last 90 days and What it's looking at is has Bitcoin been Outperforming or underperforming the top 50 cryptocurrencies obviously bitcoin's One of them so has it been performing The the 49 cryptocurrencies that come Directly after Bitcoin by market

Capitalization Over the last 90 days now if the altcoin Market has been outperforming Bitcoin Then this orange line that you see sort Of going through the page is up in this Upper region in the red region if it's Up there you could say that all coins Are outperforming Bitcoin or you might Call it altcoin season on the other hand If if this metric is down here in the Green you might call it Bitcoin season Okay however not All altcoin Seasons or Bitcoin Seasons mean the same thing okay And that's something that we really have To understand Bitcoin season does not always mean that The price of Bitcoin is going up it Could also mean that the price of Bitcoin is going sideways while the rest Of the market goes down now maybe you Think that that never that sort of thing Never really happens but that's not Actually true you can see that it Occurred back in May when we went into Bitcoin season for a few weeks and and Really uh leading up to that as well in April and and really in May You can see that we were in fact in Bitcoin season but if you think back to April and May You know April Bitcoin was going down But in May Bitcoin was sort of going Sideways but if you overlay the Bitcoin Dominance in this case it includes

Stable coins though we have made the Case many times that excluding stable Coins does make a lot of sense when You're trying to figure out how it's Doing with respect to just the altcoin Market and not the stable coin Market But what you'll notice is that the Dominance of Bitcoin this blue line was Going up back in May while Bitcoin was Going sideways so when you come back Over to this chart and you look at when We went into Bitcoin season over here in May it's not because Bitcoin was going Up on its USD pair it's because it was Going sideways and the altcoin market Was dropping right that's the reason Again it's not because Bitcoin is going Parabolic or anything like that so you Need to remember that Bitcoin season Does not mean that Bitcoin is Necessarily going up it could just mean That it's it's outperforming the rest of The market on average in the same way All coin season does not always mean That all all coins are going parabolic Sometimes it could just simply mean There's slightly outperforming Bitcoin We saw plenty of cryptocurrencies Outperform Bitcoin uh in some of these Countertion rallies that we've seen this Year although oftentimes a lot of these Altcoins are fairly quickly you know Giving those gains back whenever we see Another leg down but again you know

These are nuances of this metric that You have to understand and you know Coming up here into the altcoin season Range back in you know the August and September time frame when we had the Hype behind the ethereum merge yes it Was exciting and and ethereum and some Other altcoins were outperforming Bitcoin But this this here was not the same as This all season over here this all Season back in 2021 was during the bull Run right so it was during the bull run So that was where you actually saw all Coins giving a lot of really a lot of Gains and and that is sort of what People spend the entire bear Market Wishing for right you spend years Wishing for it it comes and then it's Gone within like a few weeks or a few Months and then you spend another four Years wishing for it again right this is Kind of how it goes Um and I mean you know not always do you Have to wait four years sometimes you Sort of get mini All Seasons throughout The accumulation phase but You'll note that not all all seasons are The same sometimes it just means that The altcoin market as a whole is Slightly outperforming Bitcoin other Times it could mean that the altcoin Market as a whole is drastically Outperforming Bitcoin if you look over

Here during this altcoin season back in 2021 and we go back to this chart this Was when the Bitcoin dominance was just Falling off a cliff you know a lot of People think I I'm just always bullish On the dominance of Bitcoin that's not True I mean I've been thinking it has to Go up at some point before this bear Market can really be decisively over but Back over here I was actually quite Bearish on the Bitcoin dominance we even Put out videos calling for the ethereum Tsunami I you know the last video I put Out in 2020 was remember you know Ethereum remember remember the end of December because ethereum was trading For like 700 and you know we'd already Seen Bitcoin go up And the general thesis was that the Dominance would go down the ethereum Bitcoin para the ethereum Bitcoin Valuation would go parabolic and all Coins would go parabolic and that's what Happened right I mean the dominance fell Off a cliff so that all season was very Different than sort of this one over Here where the dominance did go down Some but nothing like what it did back In in 2021 so when you look at this the More important thing to think about is Preparing for that destination before You get there okay so for instance if You were to wait until Bitcoin gets to Bitcoin season and maybe you wait a few

Weeks or a few months in and then you Decide to capitulate your altcoins to Bitcoin once they're they've been Bleeding for a couple of months Oftentimes we can go back the other way For a while So typically if you're in altcoin season You likely want to be scaling out back To bitcoin and if you're in Bitcoin Season You typically the idea is that Eventually it'll go back the other way So you don't really want to be the Schmuck that Waits until it gets down Here to you know to really take that Trade or or you know develop the thesis That you think the altcoin market is is Going to bleed against Bitcoin once it's Already down there Once we get down there we can spend a Couple months there Um but it's all about planning for it When you get there or planning for it Before you get there if you look at Where we are now you can see that this Indicator has been in a downtrend really Since September right the merge sort of Marked that local top on this on this Indicator by ethereum and ever since Then it's been in a local downtrend now This is kind of messy so I would suggest Adding us a 30-day SMA just to sort of Get a better average and and and really Just remove the noise and what you'll

Notice is that this indicator is clearly Showing a path to bitcoin season right That's what it's showing so far now it Doesn't mean that it can't you know hang Around in here for a while like it has Before before actually going there but To me it certainly looks like this Indicator is showing a path to bitcoin Season meaning it's showing a path to a Time period when Bitcoin should Outperform the altcoin market okay so That is something that I I think is Worth considering now if that were the Case you have to think about what would Cause that is it because Bitcoin is Going to go up and the altcoin market Doesn't go with it or is it because Bitcoin is going to go to sideways and The all coin Market's gonna drop or is It because bitcoin's gonna drop and the Altcoin market is going to drop harder One of the things we learned from 2018 Is that Bitcoin can go sideways for a While while the altcoin market gets Really apathetic and people just sort of Get bored of the raw coins and they move On to something else they capitulate Their all coins and they you know they Just sort of throw in the towel Oftentimes This is sort of like a necessary Component to sort of finalize the bear Market and arguably We are heading in that direction now if

You look at the dominance of Bitcoin Back in 2018 one of the things that you May notice is that again here at the Dominance of Bitcoin went up but it Started going up you know really right Here and part of that was Bitcoin was Going up and then it came back down Right and then it went up and then it Came back down and then it slowly just Sort of died off and then during the Capitulation the dominance was sort of Going more or less sideways I mean you Could argue that it went slightly up During this time but the main move to The upside by the dominance actually Occurred while Bitcoin was going Sideways and not during its capitulation So that is something important to Consider the other thing that I I think It's always a worthwhile reminder of and I've I've mentioned this many times is That the dominance in this case includes Stable coins right so yes Bitcoins Dominance including stable coins has Really been flirting with these lows for A while but as always if you were to go Look at the dominance excluding stable Coins which I I think is relevant you Can see that it's simply been putting in Higher lows since May of 2021 so Bottomed over here you know around 42 or Maybe even less less than 41 percent And then you know 42 43 percent uh over Here was

44.7 percent or so Um if we if we sort of zoom in and Actually get the exact number you can See it bottomed at 44.49 percent and Then here 44.59 percent uh and so on and so forth Right so excluding stable coins this has Been putting in higher lows but I I Think it's an interesting way to look at The this metric to look at the 90-day Roi Smooth it out with a moving average And see where Bitcoin compares To the rest of the market You could also look at other things like The 30-day Roi if you're curious about Shorter time frames and see kind of Where things stack up as well or the six Today Roi just to see you know is there Is it moving back up in the short term Right could there be sort of like a mini Bounce on all Bitcoin pairs I think it's An interesting way to look at at the Metric the other thing that's kind of Useful about this metric Is that the dominance of of the asset You could choose other assets as well to Look at the dominance of for instance What if you actually heavy on ethereum Because you know you just want to take On more risk and and you think ethereum Is is going to do better if you think That if you look at the ethereum Dom or If you look at say like the ethereum

Dominance versus everything else now in This case it's treating Bitcoin as in The basket with everything else Right so it's kind of weird to think About now you're thinking about ethereum As the thing that when it comes down to The green area it's ethereum season and When we're up here in the red area it Would be everything else season which Might not really make a whole lot of Sense because you know if if Bitcoin if It's Bitcoin season there's a good Chance that the altcoin Mark is dropping As well but if it is coming up here There's there is something to be said About all ether pairs could be could be Showing signs of of Um or showing certain you know areas of Strictness or strength or weakness Um you know depending on on on sort of The time and where it is so I think it's an interesting way to look At the market and it's been trending to The upside here meaning it's trending Towards the You know not ethereum season over the Last I mean you know really since April We put in a low and then a higher low And a higher low and a higher low so It's slowly going higher but you could Also see it's been putting in lower Highs as well so we'll it'll be Interesting to see where this where this Ultimately breaks but

Um I thought that was a cool part of This indicator is that you could Actually flip around between various Assets to see kind of you know how is it Performing against other assets or Basically everything else right But hopefully this is an interesting way To to look at the market and and it can Hopefully show you you know the general Trend of are we heading into Bitcoin Season or are we heading into altcoin Season right I mean like you know back Over here it when it bottomed this is a Good example right when it bottomed into In Bitcoin season in late December of 2020 and early 2021 that doesn't mean You need to go put everything into Bitcoin right because it's you know when It's down here you typically want to Start planning for it going in the other Direction when it's up here You probably want to plan for it to go Back in the other direction and so on And so forth right and the cycle goes on The cycle goes on and the cycle goes on But always if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and we do Have into the cryptographs premium and Into the of course you Can access this chart on the pro tier so Make sure you check it out link is in The description below I'll see you guys Next time bye


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