Bitcoin: Running Return on Investment

Hey everyone thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be looking at the running Roi or return on investment if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and check out the sale on into the Crypt premium at intothe crypto.com Where of course you can get access to The chart that you see here um as well As the same chart for many different Assets cryp currencies and more but what We're going to do in this video is we're Just going to look at the running Oneyear Roi uh maybe look at a couple of Other other examples on longer time Frames and just sort of see the pattern That Bitcoin has previously exhibited Now if you guys remember back to Q3 of 2022 back in about you know July August Time frame we sort of speculated that There would be another drop going into Q4 right and one of the reasons is Because actually quite frequently what You'll see is you'll see the running Onee Roi bottom out at around point2 right I Mean give or take right give or take and I mean again you can see that it it it It it did once again now what's Interesting is after it goes to that Level there does tend to be a a Significant runup in terms of the the

The running one-year Roi um and what's Really interesting is if you look to see We are right now it's it's actually 2.53 X above where it was a year ago so not The bottom per se although it was pretty Close to the bottom in terms of uh where The bottom was because the bottom came In in in um this low right here was November 20 21st December I mean it Wasn't that much higher right So from that level Bitcoin has gone up You know from December Bitcoin has gone Up about 2.5x And if you look at at prior moves with Bitcoin you can kind of see that at Least in the last couple of Cycles right There there's been a significant move That that kind of loses a little bit of Steam at around 3x in terms of the Running one-year Roi right so you can See like in June of 2016 after the One-year running Roi was about 3x Bitcoin sort of stall out for you know a Couple of months and then it actually Dropped down for a little bit before Finally resuming but I mean I know it Doesn't look like much but after it had This move in June of 2016 Bitcoin did Not durably move higher until Essentially half a year later right so There was there was certainly a cooling Off period after it got about 3x you know 3x up from where it was a

Year Before and in the last cycle we actually Saw something very similar where it it Moved up and it reached about 3x a Little bit less I suppose maybe about 2.89 and then it and then the one year Running Roi cooled off and I mean again This was the um the pandemic drop but Again you you can kind of see that it it Reached a level from which it had to Cool off from for for a period of time And you know Bitcoin then durably went Above it about you know 10 months later Or so right so about 10 months later Here about half a year later over here Now again right now it's at 2 .5x or so up now unfortunately you know The sort of the the the easy way for This to move up is sort of come and gone Right because now instead of comparing This to prices that were going down We're going to start comparing it to Prices that were moving higher and That's one of the reasons why the run The one year running Roi will sort of Cool back off is because you know it has To keep up that pace if not more to you Know to to hold up that level and if it Just stays sideways then the running one Your Roi will then start to go back down Because it's comparing it to a a a Different reference point but we can Actually project out you know what it Would take and by when to get it up to

Around 3x um let see a future projection and It's it's really hard to know like where To project it to uh you know Bitcoin has Already made it to you know to um to 44k Or 44.5k I have no idea to be completely Honest exactly how high it's going to go Before it gets a significant you know More a larger pullback I mean we we had About eight green weeks in a row seven Or eight green weeks in a row this is a Red week here but it still isn't really That much of a significant pullback in The grand scheme of things and if you Look at things like the RSI which Probably you know they're not really the Best things to look at in terms of Buying and selling but you know it is Relatively elevated right it's you know It's above um above 7 75 it's currently At 76 or so so in terms of trying to Figure out you know exactly how high it Will go it's certainly until until There's a larger pullback is certainly Anyone's guess but if we were to just Speculate what would it take to get you Know to get to about 3x up from where it Was a year ago and and by win so I I Guess the first thing to think about Would be potentially the whole spot ETF Narrative um that could come to fruition In early 202 for I I I don't know Exactly when but um I think some people

Are speculating early January so let's Just say I don't know January 7th um you Know where would the price of Bitcoin Have to be to sort of match somewhere Between 2.9 to 3.1x uh from where it was a year ago and So we could experiment right so why Don't we why don't we first start with 46k and see where that puts it so 46k Would put it at about 2.7x from where it Was the year before if it were at 48k that would put it out at 2.8 2.8x so That 2.81 you can see this one over here was About 2.89 before it finally started to cool Off so I guess I mean I guess you're Looking you know for it to reach that Level it' have to go a little bit above That I don't know exactly how much above That but we can sort of play around with It and see So 485 we put it at 2.84 and and again To remember it also depends on when Because if I were to change the date of This to a let's say a an earlier date it Would actually make it you know easier For it to get up to that level right so Now if it happens by you know January 1st then it's up 2.9x which is Essentially where it was here before it Kind of cooled off and also where it was Here before it finally cooled off so

That's something that's that's Interesting sort of think about what Would it take to sort of reach those Levels of extension that it saw in in Prior Cycles um now the next thing to Look at is is what would it you know Where would it have to go to you know to Come back down um and again there's no Guarantees I I have mentioned before the Idea of of sort of a scare that comes Later on that tends to be macro related Will it play out or not right I mean It's it's anyone's guess I suppose but It is something it's always a risk I Think is is worthwhile to consider so You know what would it take for it to Come back down to you know to these Levels right you know back down to an Roi of one well if you think about it For it to go back down to a oneyear Roi Of one it would have to go back to where The price was you know a year previously But at that point so like if it were to Go back To like if it were to go back to to say 25k next June then that would get you Back to one right if it were to go back To 20K by March again that would get you Back to an Roi of one right so you can Project that out by essentially saying All right well you know let's say by March I don't know 14th if there were a scare in the market Um you know whether it's say like a a

Deflationary scare maybe maybe nonfarm Payroll print a negative print or Something who knows right what it could Be or if it'll even happen but if it Were to I mean you can see that that Would actually get it back below one Which is essentially what happened last Cycle right it actually went below one So just something to consider I also Think it's it's it's worthwhile to look At other time frames as well and by the Way I mean I'm sure you know for the for For many of you you're probably sort of Eyeballing this and thinking like oh Well you can draw sort of an imaginary Line through these Peaks and that's true I mean you you can and we've done that Many times before and in fact there's a Video on the channel we were looking at This in in um in March of 2021 I believe And and this was one of the charts that Made me make that video calling for a Summer low back in 2021 right the idea That we would basically re reached Maximum Extension and um and we need to cool off For a bit before going higher and we did Um and you can kind of see we we sort of Emulated what was going on over here but That second Peak wasn't nearly as Impressive as as you know as it was back Over here in the 2013 cycle so that that Level depends on you know when it were To occur if it were to

Occur next Year it it certainly wouldn't have to go As high to sort of hit that upper Threshold but if it were to occur in 2025 then it would right it would have To go it would have to go higher because Because then you're going to be Comparing to 2024 prices um which for The most part are likely going to be Higher than than where it was for most Of 2022 it doesn't mean that you can't Have have scares down there but you know For the most part so that would be Something to consider as well Um it could be useful also to to look at Maybe like a 2-year Roi so this is the The 2-year Roi of of Bitcoin and it Really has had you know a very similar Pattern through Through The Years um you Can see last cycle it it sort of came Above one and then and then it came back Down and then ultimately finally durably Broke through that that one threshold You know by about May of the having year And over here it durably broke through That one threshold by about August of The having year meaning the 2-year Roi Was above one durably by about halfway Through the having year and so now you You can see that it's still not above That level right it's still not above it And and it actually got rejected off of That level back in July of 2023 it's Kind of interesting right like that's

Essentially where it got rejected where The 2-year Roi was basically one and if You think about it right if you go from April of 2023 to April of 2021 Right that was essentially you know that Was essentially where Bitcoin you know Started to to have that that big Pullback right so you went up in April June June and July that was sort of Comparing to to this pullback right here To 30k and that was ultimately where it Topped out locally two years later now While the price of Bitcoin is higher Than it was back in in the summer the 2-year Roi has not reached that same extension Up to an Roi of one and so you know for It to to get back up there you'd have to Think about where it would have to go so If we just sort of think about this Where was Bitcoin 2 years ago today Right well December of 2021 Bitcoin was already starting to Come back down right so like it was Basically back at like 50k so what that Means is if Bitcoin were to go To let's say 50K by the end of the year That would basic and actually that would Actually get you a little bit above one So imagine it really depends on when it Happens because you know if you change This to a little earlier right let's

Change it let's say like the 24th then it it it essentially gets you Back to that one level so that it's an Interesting thing to look at because in Both prior Cycles it did not durably Break above one until halfway through The having year which is essentially Another half a year away um so that Would be worthwhile to consider Especially considering the reference Point will start to come back down right If you think about where it was two Years ago and you can also look at this On on shorter time frames as well like This is like the 90-day Roi um which Could be interesting to look at I mean You can see that the 90-day Roi doesn't Often go above two and when it does it's Not doesn't tend to last for too long I Mean it can last for you know maybe a Few months but it doesn't send to stay Around that level for for for too long But yes at this point Bitcoin is is up Almost 2x from where it was only 90 days Ago the last time that we reached this Level of of almost 2x up in 90 days last Time was in in October 2021 and then the Time before that was back in you know The early part of 2021 you can also see That we reached a 90day Roi of almost Two back in June of 2020 and in 2019 of Course we went much higher and then you Can also look at at 30-day Roi as well If you want but I don't think that's as

Useful there's also the threeyear ROI and then here is let me just remove The future projection um and then here Is the 4-year Roi right so then going back to the 2-year Ro and then the 90-day and so on and so forth right I Guess it's not actually excuse me I Misspoke earlier it's not at the 90day ROI is not at at at 2 yet it's at at About 1.6 that was including the Projection out right so like it could go To that level if over the next couple of Weeks Bitcoin were to go up but right Now it's only at at at 1.59 X um and Over the last 30 days it's up about 1.1 64x so just to clarify clarify what I Said so we'll see what happens I I I do Think that looking at the running one Your Roi is interesting um and and can Give insight into the market that maybe Maybe weren't otherwise aware of again If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and again check out The sale on intothe cryptoverse premium At intothe Crypt.of Trends going on with apple and Kind of interesting that you know where The one-year running Roi bottomed out in Late 2022 early 2023 is is you know Essentially where the one- year running Roi bottomed out in May of

2016 and around that level in April 2013 so you'll find some interesting Trends with a lot of different assets by Looking at at the the running return on Investment if you guys like the content Again make sure you subscribe the S is Going on into the Crypt premium link for That is in the destion below I will see You guys next time bye