Bitcoin: ROI After Halving

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing the return on investment Or Roi after the having if you guys like The content make sure you subscribe to The channel give the video a thumbs up And also check out intothe cryptoverse Premium at intothe cryptoverse Docomo ahead and jump in now we did see Bitcoin come back down to around $60,000 and so I thought maybe why not Check back in with this chart because One of the things that we've actually Seen occur over the last couple of Cycles is the having arrives everyone Expects the price of Bitcoin to go Parabolic after well maybe not everyone Right but a lot of people think that the Price of Bitcoin just goes parabolic Immediately after the having history Shows that's actually not often the case Except for the first having right after The first having you can see that the Price really did go up but Last time last time in in after the Third having we saw price generally Increase and so everyone has that in the Back of their mind right they're Thinking about what happened last cycle But last cycle when the price basically Just went up following the having right If you look at having cycle 3 you can See that after the having arrived the

Price did not ever go back below the Price of Bitcoin when the having Occurred right you can see that it was It was just higher lows after that and So I think a lot of people went into This having thinking that you would see Something very similar where you just Get you know higher lows following the Having and that's why there was a lot of People really excited when Bitcoin went Back up to $70,000 but remember often Times going into the summer there is a Bounce by Bitcoin um you know in May SL June and then often times we'll see some Form of a of a um boring summer right so I think a lot of people were thinking About all right well what if it just Follows last cycle after the having and And that's what they had in mind right But last cycle for those that were here Last cycle what a lot of us were talking About was would there be a POS having Dump and the reason we spoke about that Last cycle was because in having cycle Two there was a post having dump and you Can see in fact that we didn't actually Get back above the price of bit Co at The having durably until about 3 and 1/2 Months later 3 to 3 and a half months Later and so I hav even did a video on It back in in 2020 I was like what Bitcoin post having Dum because a lot of People were talking about it based on What happened in 2016 we didn't get it

Right it just basically went up and so It almost like it it it it sort of Flip-flops what it does right so after The first Having price also I don't believe I I Don't believe it went below where it Opened after the having right you can See that right there and then after the Third having right it also didn't go Below that level but after having cycle Two and having cycle 4 it has so there's A clear difference right there's a clear Difference and and you can see how from One having to another right from one Having to another it sort of rotates Having Cycles one and three it did not Go below the price after the having Having Cycles 2 and four it did and in Fact if you measure the ROI of Bitcoin After the having is currently at 093 which is essentially the same or Actually 094 938 to be exact right but About 094 which coincidentally is the Same spot it was after having cycle 2 After 67 days right now I wouldn't Expect it to follow it exactly it we Should not expect that in fact it hasn't Been following it exactly you can see That this year This after this having we actually went Positive from the r from the price at The having for a while whereas in 2016 We barely saw any positive price action Above the ROI or above the price that

The're having until about three and a Half months later so again I I just Wanted to pull this chart up and and Show you where we are and say look this Is where we were in 2016 you know I I I See I make a lot of comparisons to 2019 Primarily just because of monetary Policy but I I think I think there are Some you know some reasons to compare to 2016 as well not only because of Bitcoin But also what eth is doing and what eth Bitcoin is doing and so on and so forth So you know if you are more so in the 2016 Camp um and you're looking at just Say USD valuations right if you're in The 2016 Camp then why not look at the ROI after the 2016 having right and and You can see that even after the third Having I mean while price did go up a Bit around the summer it didn't really Get into gear until the fourth quarter Of the year so you know there's a decent Chance that the the price could still be Relatively suppressed for a while um and And we've actually talked a lot about That and I mean again there there's Other ways to to measure the ROI as well You could look at the ROI after cycle Peak and see I mean if you just look at The last couple of Cycles you can see How far ahead of the of the last two Cycles we are right now right so I mean When you look at this one of the reasons Why we talk about 2019 so much is

Because in 2019 we saw a very similar Thing where the rli after the peak you Know we had this bare Market we had then We had a a sort of a a QT bull market a Bull market as rates were were elevated And before rate Cuts began Bitcoin also Got ahead of where it was the prior Cycle but then ultimately we saw some Form of mean reversion um back to you Know where it should have been right in Quotes right where it should have been And of course we got the pandemic which Caused it to overshoot um and go lower Than sort of that mean reversion and so That's a you know that's one of the Reasons why I look at that 2019 Comparison because you know what if what If this is just sort of a similar thing As this and then you ultimately get that Mean reversion back to where it quote Unquote should be although of course It's Market there's no such thing as Where it should be Um but I I I think it's an interesting Way to look at the market and and to say Look guys you know at this point in the Last two cycles I mean look at the Screen right if you measure it from the Peak the last two cycles the ROI from The peak was still at 0.57 right so that means that at this Point in the last two cycles Bitcoin was Still 43% down from the all-time High right right now we're we're only

10% down from the 2021 all-time high so You I mean it really goes to show just How accelerated this move has been and So you know if you do see the market Cool off into the summer it might bring In that 2019 comparison even more and Also if you do it could make that 2016 Comparison when thinking about the ROI After the having even more you know Believable because you can see back over Here we really didn't we I mean Bitcoin Didn't really pick up steam until you Know until much later right I mean About 160 days after the having but Remember back then the having was in in Uh this 2016 so the having would have Been in July and so that would have been About half a year later before it really Started to Move so I think that's a good uh a good Way to look at the market measure it Roi After the having measure it Roi after The peak and of course you can also look At it Roi after after the lows and if You measure it this way we are still Above the last two cycles in terms of Where they were at this point in the Cycle which is I mean it's remarkable You know just how similar it is and if You look at last cycle there was a Period where we you know we got extended And then we slowly got back down to Where the other to where the prior cycle Was and then now it almost looks like

You're seeing something very very Similar where it's gotten extended and Then it's slowly making its way back Down to where the prior cycle was and so You know I mean right now we are still About 3.8x above the lows um you can see that It took until day 670 or 680 or so for Last cycle for that Roi from the low to Get durably above that multiple and That's you know 680 days we're currently Only on um 580 you know 588 I mean That's another 3 months which again that Would get you through Q3 so I think There's a case to be made as we've been Talking about for a good part of this Year I think there's a good good case to Be made that you just get this summer Low right boring phase in the market Allow you know allow those those alts to Keep on bleeding back to bitcoin damn I Said it again right but allow that to Happen allow the dominance to go higher And then you know get out into Q4 into Q4 and then you know then we see what it Wait since then um but yeah I mean those Are my views on the market and it's all And and again one of the things if you Look at at I just say Bitcoin USD where it currently is you know it's Currently at around $60,000 we really haven't had that many Large pullbacks right I mean a lot of These pullbacks have actually been

Relatively uh muted especially compared To to last cycle I mean these pullbacks Are basically just like 20% pullbacks You know essentially all of them even This one it was still only about a 23% Pullback so last cycle we actually you Know after that 2019 top we ended up Getting you know about a 50% pullback I Mean obviously it went further down Because of the pandemic later on but I Mean it does go to show that and even if You even if you're in the 2016 Camp Right I mean even in the 2016 Camp there Were still some you know some some more Or some larger pullbacks like 30 40% but I I think you know in the same way that We've talked about diminishing returns You're also likely going to see Diminishing volatility as well as the Cycles go on just because it takes Exponentially more and more money to to Move the Price but um that's where we are that's The video we looked at Roi after the Having we looked at Roi after uh the Peak and we looked at Roi after the low Hopefully that gets you you know sort of An encompassing view of of the market Where we are and and we'll see what Happens over the next few months just Remember I mean this is this move right Here that we just got I mean this move This is exactly uh what we saw you know Last year for the most I mean the only

Main difference is that it didn't put in A new high right you see that right so This one did not actually take out the Prayer High whereas last year it Actually did um so that's kind of a Subtle difference Um but we we'll continue to follow that And see see where Bitcoin comes in but Again you know back in in in late April Early may we talked about how there's This Mantra that people talk about and That sell and May and go away because Oftentimes in late April the market Sells off usually what happens in May is You get this rally after everyone sort Of sings the song of sell and may go Away you saw the same thing actually um In 2021 right a sell off in late April And then you get this rally in May you Know so everyone's screams here sell Them man and go away and then you get a Rally that lasts several weeks and then You get a summer low right so I mean Again it looks kind of similar to me um And I mean you know you could certainly Have a a deeper pullback as well back Into the 50s I do think that's certainly Possible if it is if it is 2019 which I Know a lot of people push back against And they say it's 2016 again I'm not Saying it can't be I'm just saying if it Is 2019 all over again then what you Would generally expect would be to kind Of stay around these levels for a little

Bit I mean it doesn't mean you can't go Back down and go back into the 50s But you can see here right it got a a High a lower high and then a lower high It came back down to the lows and then Got one final bounce but it was a really Pathetic bounce off the lows and then it Ended up falling below support um so if It is 2019 you would still expect it Sort of bounce around for a little while Longer at the very least um And and so yeah that's where we are guys That's where we are in the market those Are the RO after the different time Frames we'll see what happens just Remember a lot of times people expect Prices to go parabolic right after the Having and with the exception of the First having that's not what we normally See if you guys like the content make Sure you subscribe to the channel give The video a thumbs up and again check Out intothe cryptar premium at intothe Crypt vars.com I'll see you guys next Time bye