Bitcoin Risk Metric

Hey everyone and thanks for jumpping Back into the Cryptoverse today we're going to talk About Bitcoin and we're going to be Discussing the risk metric if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and also check out the sale on Intothe cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse decom now in this video we Are going to be going through the risk Metric for Bitcoin and and this risk Metric that you see here was published Back in 2019 I I think I have a video on My channel uh from 2019 and we talk About this very risk metric and the idea Is at least theoretically of course is That it should St the test of time Meaning Bitcoin more or less should stay Within the bounds of the risk metric Which you know which varies between zero And one so Z zero is historically low Risk and one is historically high risk And the problem of course at all times Is in any type of bubble or any type of Bare Market we don't know exactly how High or how low the price can go I mean We have all sorts of people that try to Predict exactly where it might bottom Out or where it might top out and I Throw my hand in the ring sometimes as Well in that but at the end of the day No one fully knows right no one fully Knows and so the argument that I sort of

The the realization that I came to many Many years ago was that rather than Concern ourselves too much with the news Cycle and all the fluff right all that Stuff why not just have something that I Can go and I I can turn to and say all Right what is the risk I don't care you Know what what regulatory stuff might be Coming our way I don't care you know What so and so is saying about the price I just want to know what the risk is Right and that's how I navigate Bitcoin I mean I you know we talk a lot about Larger market trends um I mean I've said For a long time you know probably for at Least the last two two and a half years That a Bitcoin heavy portfolio will Likely outperform an altcoin heavy Portfolio until we get back to loose to Monetary policy that's why of course we Follow uh the Bitcoin dominance which Has been doing pretty well for the last Couple of years but at the end of the Day when it comes to bitcoin when it Comes to entering into the market when It comes to leaving the market there has To be some level of understanding that You will not time the top and you will Not time the bottom okay now some people Will say you never sell right and Look over a long enough Peri period of Time that strategy has worked out pretty Well right but if you want to try to Take advantage of some of the boom and

Bust Cycles within crypto I think having Something like a RIS metric can be quite Useful of course this is available on ITC premium links in the description Below however be that as it may I Understand that not everyone wants to You know to to have a subscription to This website which we do have a lot of Charts we have thousands of charts but As I've said previously if it represents A Significant um amount of what you would Be putting into the market otherwise Like you're probably better off not Having it and following something Different right so I follow this risk Metric but I think that it's not it it Wouldn't be that challenging to come up With other risk metrics that you could Theoretically use right and and I mean We'll we'll go through a little bit of That in the video later on but I just Want you to know that you don't have to Follow this one there are others Available this is just the one that has Served me well okay so the way it works Is when you go into sort of the blue Region it's relatively low risk when you Go into the red red region it's Historically high risk and so for me What I do just for full closure and Transparency which I I think we all have Some level of a bias at some point I DCA Bitcoin when the risk is below

04 okay between 04 and 06 I don't really do anything I Just you know make some videos talk About where bitcoin price might be going But I don't really do anything I'm not Really buying it above 04 risk but I'm Not selling it below 6 risk generally Speaking um above 6 risk I think it it It comes into the question right and and There's various strategies that you can Explore that I think could suit various Types of of people with different types Of risk tolerance the one thing that I I Often find the most discouraging in the Crypto space is How um you know every once in a while You'll see someone say that they they've Sold their Bitcoin or they're buying Bitcoin or whatever and and then the Price let say they sell their Bitcoin The price continues to go up or let's Say they buy Bitcoin they publicize that And then the price continues to go down And then a lot of people will then dunk On that person and say you know haha Look at you you bought price went down Or you sold and the price went up the Problem is that we must remind ourselves That everyone has a a different risk Tolerance maybe your risk tolerance is Different than someone else's and I I Think that is a something that you Really should think about right maybe You would like to DCA Bitcoin up to the

08 risk level because you don't really Care you know you just want to do what You do right DCA on a weekly basis no Matter what unless we're like in in you Know in absolute Mania Mode and that's what your strategy is But imagine someone who say nearing Retirement and let's say they have a Decent amount of Bitcoin and and they Want to make sure that they don't get Left holding the bag for a few years Just when they need the money the most You can't necessarily blame them for Taking some profits right so I think It's important to to remember that um so When you do see people that that say That sort of stuff like hey you know if They're selling something or if they're Buying something and the price continues To go against you know kind of what they Said you should remember that their risk Tolerance could be different than yours The other idea of course is that no one Knows where the top is no one knows Where the bottom is and some of the Times we go all the way up to the Highest RIS bands you know the 0. n to1 Rband and other times we don't other Times we go up like 2019 we went up to The 6 to7 wristband which is exactly Where we are right now so we must Remember that there just simply is no Way to know how high the rally will go Before it cools off okay in

2019 in 2019 when we went to the point 6 To7 wristband there was Justification for selling some right Because we were at a relatively high Risk level for someone that wants to Take profits above point6 risk the Problem is that if you're living in 2019 And you're looking at the chart and all You see is this all you see is this are You going to want to sell all your Bitcoin there Probably not right I mean you're looking At it and you're thinking well hell I Mean if you sell your Bitcoin here at 6 You know 65 risk what happens if it goes Up to 08 risk or 0.9 risk like what Happens are you just going to you know Sell it all and then watch the market go Parabolic and leave you Behind that's not the idea right so the Strategy that I like to enjoy is dynamic DCA both into the market and out of the Market so what that would call for so Would for example would be you know in The 6 to7 risk ban it would it would Mean selling a small amount of Bitcoin Um a fraction of it just to say you know What we made it this far I just want to Take some profits off the table in case This is as far as we Go but you also Theoretically like to leave room for the Theoretical upside right so that if Bitcoin continues to climb into the 7 to

Point8 risk ban you're not sitting there Wishing that you had you know that you Had not sold all your Bitcoin in the 6 To7 resp so the idea is it's basically Just you know humble Yourself and say we don't know where the Top is we know the risk is it's 6.7 it's Relatively heated history shows it could Get even more heated and so the strategy That I have used for several years is as We climb the wristbands to take some Profits right but to still leave some in Case we continue going higher in 2019 For instance right like I mean if you Had watched Bitcoin climb up this was a 4X rally and believe it or not there are Some people that like taking profits After a 4X rally I know other people Might scoff at the idea of a 4X rally But some people like the idea if you buy And then the price goes up 4X in about 7 Months can you blame someone for wanting To take some profits and the thing is is You know if you were living back living In the cryptoverse back over here you Would have have every reason in the World to say that anyone selling here at 13k 14k was insane you know because we Were only at 6 risk but then we ended up Going all the way back down now you Might say well Ben there's a pandemic Yeah but we also went back down to the 3 To point4 risb before the pandemic even Arrived right I me this was back in in

You know late 2019 September 2019 it had Already started trending back to the Downside So that is sort of the the Recognition that we cannot know where The high is for any given phase of the Cycle and remember one of the reasons we Talk so much about Bitcoin dominance is Because of my experience in 2019 when When I saw what happened as we got to The near end of the business cycle like Where we got pretty close to rate cuts And we saw what Bitcoin did right it Broke altcoins off of their Bitcoin Support levels right and after Bitcoin Did that then it cooled off for a while But it wasn't until those altcoins broke Down on their Bitcoin Pairs and that's Why I spend who knows how long making These Bitcoin dominance videos because That was my experience back in 2019 was To say look once the altcoins break off Their Bitcoin support levels that Implies some level of lower liquidity Okay until then a lot of altcoin Liquidity pours into Bitcoin then at Some point those altcoins no longer have Sufficient liquidity I mean at this Point they still haven't collectively Broken down um but if they do that could Of course be a a warning sign so in that Case right like in 2019 I imagine you Sell a small fraction let's say I don't Know 1110th or something and then

Imagine you sell 1/10th and then the Price goes down you feel pretty good About yourself right you're like hey I Took some profits and then it pumps Right back up now if you had sold Everything imagine if you had sold Everything and then you watch bitcoin's Price pump from you know 9k back up to 12K you might be tempted to buy it all Back at a loss right like let's say you You you sold it at at 11k or something You watch it go down you still pump back Up because maybe you sold everything you Could be tempted to buy it all back at a Loss only for the market to then just Chop you up and spit you out by doing it Dynamically and only doing small amounts At the lower risk levels and large Amounts at the higher risk levels you Maintain that flexibility so like if you Sell 1110th there's part of you that Wants the market to go down so that you Can buy back lower there's also a part Of you that doesn't really mind if the Market keeps on going up because hey you Took something off the table you got Something to show for it if if the Market tops out But you're fine if the market goes Higher because you still have a decent Stack of Bitcoin now I know the whole Diamond hand stuff comes into play and And and and that stuff but you have to Remember um you know the we just cycle

Back and forth right between fear and Greed and and we go you know through Periods where the whole Diamond hand Stuff everyone believes it and then a Few you know a year later everyone's Mocking it so it just goes back and Forth I would try not to get lost too Much into that if you're the type of Person that doesn't really have any Interest in ever taking profit um and You just want to Diamond hands it Forever history shows that eventually it Works out so who am I to say anything About that strategy right who am I to Say anything his historically it has Worked out pretty well now Imagine you saw what happened in 2019 Where it topped out at 0 65 risk and Then said all right well now this time I'm going to sell everything between 6 To 7 risk and so then when it got to 6 Risk back in December of 2020 maybe you Sold everything because you saw back in 2019 that's where it topped out guess What the person who sold everything then Watch Bitcoin go up another 3 and a2x After that point from the 6 to 7 Wristband so you can see how dangerous It is to look back at any prior Peak and Assume that it has to play out the same Way if going into 2019 you thought it Had to play out like 2017 you would have Then witnessed a 70% drop after hitting That wristband but if in 2021 you went

Into it or 2020 you went into it Thinking it had to top out at0 6 five Risk kind of like it did in 2019 the market left you behind so what You know what I did right what I did Going into into this rally was I did Sell some Bitcoin into this rally at the 6 to7 resan the idea would be to sell a Fraction of it now admittedly back in 2020 when I sold some Bitcoin at that Risk level a small fraction um I I just Sold it I I sold it to eth because the Eth tsunami normally occurs after Bitcoin hits new highs and Bitcoin had Just hit you know it had just hit highs So it was just a matter of time and so Yes while I did take a small fraction of Profit away from Bitcoin I don't remember what it was it Was like 1110th or something um I just Put it into something else that was at a Lower risk level okay so Bitcoin Continued to go higher I continue to Have the majority of my Bitcoin as it Went into higher risk levels continuing To dynamically DCA sell it as we went Into higher risk levels and then Eventually we cooled back off okay and Then when it got got back over here to The 04.5 risk level I started buying Some again back then I used to buy Bitcoin up to 0.5 risk okay so I think Every cycle I become a little bit more Risk averse you know two cycles ago I

Was just kind of buying it whatever and Then last cycle it was up to 0. five Risk this cycle it's up to 04 risk um And and so that's kind of how I I Navigate it um so looking at where we Are today right bitcoin's risk is at 0 62 right and I can't tell you I mean I Can't tell you exactly where the high is Um I know that in 2019 Bitcoin rallied Until until eth Bitcoin broke down until The eth Bitcoin valuation broke down it Rallied until the Bitcoin dominance Retraced the point point um5 retracement Level which today would correspond to 56% dominance that's what happened back Then I don't know if that's what's going To happen today but what it shows you is That the grand scheme of things we are Getting into some higher risk levels Right we are getting into the higher Risk band it doesn't mean that it can't Go higher but history also would caution Against the idea of assuming that it has To go to the highest risk band right Like we made it to the highest risk ban Over here in in 2021 and I remember back Over there I sold and this was all Published in ITC premium I sold 87% of my Bitcoin back then in 2021 At these higher risk bands and honestly If I'm being completely honest I felt Like an idiot because you know I was Selling and then the price of Bitcoin Just kept slowly going higher looking

Back at it now we can tell it was just a Massive distribution phase right back Then it was very uncomfortable selling I Think I had sold a majority of my Bitcoin by the time it was 58k and then After selling it at 58 I watched it go To 59 and 60 and then 61 you know it it Hit this top here at at like 58 and then It had another top at 61 and then Another top at 64 I'm just like well Hell I mean you know it's just going to Keep going higher because everyone else In the cryptoverse seemed convinced it Was going to 300K and I remember people Saying like you know you sold all your Bitcoin at at at 58k and it's about to go to 300K you Know Screw diminishing returns right and That was sort of the um the uh the the Outlook back then it was 300K or nothing And so I I mean I felt uncomfortable Doing it but at the end of the day I Just stayed true to it and it ended up Working out right when you know it ended Up working out after we gave it enough Time but in the moment it felt like the Rally was never going to end right it Felt like it was never going to end and Eventually cooler you know cooler cooler Minds prevailed and Bitcoin cooled off For a while we then of course got Another pump um and then and then the Bare Market began so then when we got Over here again this was published in

ITC premium I bought Bitcoin between the 0.1 to 02 wristbands I basically we went To the 0.1 to point2 wristbands my limit Orders got filled then we went back Above them and then I reset them and Then they got filled again okay that's What I did now if you follow this Channel very closely you'll also know That I didn't buy any altcoins I just Bought Bitcoin and um some people might Say that was a mistake I gave my reasoning for it back then my Reasoning for it was Because if I'm trying To maximize my risk adjusted returns in A qt and rate hiking cycle it would make More Sense to be to to bet on bitcoin than it Would to bet too heavily on altcoins now I conceded back then that that there Would be many altcoins and again maybe More than just saying a few but there Would be a lot of altcoins that would Outperform Bitcoin but as I said back Then like I for where I am in my own Investing Journey that was not too much Of my concern my my larger concern was Figuring out how do I maximize my Sharp Ratio how do I maximize my tortino ratio How do I maximize my risk adjusted Returns where it gives me exposure to The upside of crypto in case we go up For a while but it also minimizes my Downside risk and again I I said back

Then I think the Bitcoin dominance is Going to start a rally from 40% to 60% and so that was why I was sticking With Bitcoin you know just going to Stick with it because it seemed to me That all Bitcoin pairs would bleed now We look back on it and today the Bitcoin Dominance is right around 54% look at Late 202 2 and early 2023 right when in this area right look What's happened to bitcoin dominance It's gone from 40% to 54% now remember The Target that I set long ago which may Or may not be hit was 60% and a lot of people say that this Looks like a topping pattern for Dominance they could be right I still Think it's going to break to the upside The FED has been pretty clear they're Not going to be cutting rates anytime Soon watch what they do what not what They say but remember last cycle Bitcoin Ruled The Roost until the FED went back To QE where they started expanding their Balance sheet okay and again if you're Not familiar with the idea of of risk Adjusted returns one way to think about It is we have this modern portfolio Theory tool where you can see that like For a portfolio consisting of of Bitcoin And Eth the portfolio that maximizes your Sortino ratio which does not punish Positive volatility is 78% Bitcoin um

Well I mean you can see it's it's not Rounded properly right here but around 78% Bitcoin 22% e okay so that is the Point right that is the point and if you Would include you know some other Cryptocurrencies in here um you could See kind of how how Bitcoin would still Maintain the largest percentage of any Of those portfolios because it sticks Around from one cycle to another and Tends to go put in new highs eventually Whereas a lot of these other ones Don't you know it's just it's just a Fact and I'm telling you guys when I Joined the Cryptoverse many many years ago I I Refused to believe that fact and and Then eventually I sort of was like all Right this is how it works um it's okay To it's okay to bet on alt coins but Just remember that they do not typically Go up against Bitcoin forever and then Eventually they they bleed back to Bitcoin and that's why just from a pure Mathematical perspective when you Compare Bitcoin to these other Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin would still Make up the majority of the your Portfolio if you're maximizing your risk Adjust returns you might say well Ben You're including a lot of altcoins that Are really old and no one cares about Anymore like who cares about Litecoin Monero and xrp they're relics of a prior

Cycle but the problem is that a a cycle Or two ago no one was saying that right And this and now all the new altcoins Right all the new altcoins people are Saying well you should be looking at Those well you can't you can't use Something like modern portfolio Theory With something that's only been around For a few months yes the the new shiny Stuff can can pump but in general to Maximize your sharp ratio youra ratio Over a longer period of time it makes Sense to be heavier Bitcoin rather than Heavier Altcoins so then going back to this risk Stuff Right I bought some Bitcoin up here Right right I did um could I have bought More absolutely absolutely I did not It's not like I went kneed deep into Bitcoin um I I bought some I think I had Like I think I published like seven or Eight limit orders that were filled uh Could I have had more filled yeah I mean If it had gone lower I would have had More filled you know if Bitcoin had gone To 14K more would have been filled um But it didn't right so the ones that got Filled got filled and then and then We've gone up ever since now right now We're at 62 risk So the question is as well you know Where does it go from here unfortunately I can't I can't know I I I can only say

You know what what's happened in Prior Cycles but also with a constant reminder That every cycle plays out in a somewhat Different way um you know none of these Prior Cycles are are really that similar To each other right like last cycle was A double Peak cycle where the second Peak was basically at the same price as The first Peak the cycle before that was Just a long steady run up the cycle Before that was a double Peak cycle Where the second Peak was much higher Than the first Peak so all these Cycles Have been really very different from Each other right and then the first Cycle was just basically straight up Right straight up double Peak more of a Long methodical move up double Peak Where the second Peak was the same as The first Peak I'm guessing that this Cycle will be different in some ways Than every other prior cycle and in some Ways it already is because if you were To look at the risk of Bitcoin in February of having years it's never been This High take a look February of 2020 The risk was in the 04 to 0.5 risb February of 2016 let me go to February 2016 the risk was in the. 3 to point4 Rband so 3 to point4 point4 to.5 we're Not even in the 0.5 to6 we're in the 6 To 7 rban in February and then February 2012 risk was only 0.1 to

0.2 so in some regards we are already Different than the last few Cycles Because of where the risk is at this Point going into the having so you could Already argue that it's playing out in a Somewhat different manner it's also Playing out different ly than 2019 Because 2019 had a local top in the Prehab Year here we have continued to climb Higher without really getting any type Of those local tops now remember in 2019 It topped one month before the First Rate cut and also it topped after all Bitcoin pairs broke down which Bitcoin My my interpretation is still in the Process of trying to accomplish that Although it's taking a really long Period of time so what I Do despite the news cycle despite my Chatter about short-term bubble risk and The bullmark sport band and um and all That other stuff right all I do is I Look at the risk and I say hey is it too High if it is I might sell some while Also maintaining some position in case We continue to go up if it's too low Then I'll buy some I don't concern Myself too much beyond that because Otherwise I feel like you just you can Go crazy thinking about you know what's Going to happen it's better just to have A plan and say you know what I don't Really care what happens if it goes up

Okay I'll sell some it goes down all Right I'll buy some and I think Navigating the cryptoverse in that way Makes a lot more sense because then you Have a plan no matter what happens right You don't have to you don't have to Worry so much if one thing plays out Over another thing it's just if this It's like a computer programmer right if This then that else that right it's just Just you know if risk goes to a certain Level you do this if it if it does Something else you do that so that's What I think makes the most amount of Sense if you take the color code out of It and you just look at historical risk Levels where you you just look at it Like this you can see the current risk Is is basically back to where it was but It is maybe a little bit higher or right On the level um 2019 it it actually Topped out at at 645 risk on The Daily Close but I remember on the wick it Actually went all the way up to like 68 Risk or it might have even like 685 it Was it was pretty close to the 7 risk Band um but it ended up topping out Right before the FED started to cut um And so that's another reason why I talk So much about where you know I know it's Boring for a lot of people but that's Why I talk so much about you know Monetary policy is because of just Experiencing what happened last time

With Bitcoin and I mean right now the Market is expecting the first cut to Come in June but remember this is Constantly changing I mean you know next Month it might flip back to May Following month maybe it flips to July I Don't know um but that's why we talk About it is because at least in a prior Cycle Bitcoin reacted in a certain way When monetary policy shifted and Therefore it makes sense to at least be Somewhat prepared in case that thing Were to happen again now going over to Um if I can go to the dashboard right so We have this the same risk stuff for um Other cryptocurrencies as well right so It's not you know it's not just Bitcoin We have it for um some other ones as Well right so like the total Cryptocurrency market cap risk is 615 Which is funny because the altcoin Market cap risk is0 615 um Bitcoin risk 620 as you can see risk on E is actually Higher than Bitcoin at 667 and agree Again the reason why I like this stuff Is because it has nothing to do with my Opinion on what I think the price should Be or what I think the risk should be it Just is what it is based on historical Data right it's just looking at Historical performance accounting for Diminishing returns and saying this is What is theoretically possible based on The historical record and then you can

Go down the list and kind of see like What the what the various risk levels Are right like the risk on on Ada is 0482 on link is 647 on salana is 739 I Think everyone kind of understand like Why that is right I mean we saw salana Go on a massive run in 2023 It makes sense that the risk is higher Um Ada hasn't performed as well dot Hasn't performed as well you know Avalanche has performed somewhat okay Over the last few months but it it still Has underperformed um salana over over The last year and that's why the risk is A good bit lower um madic at 342 R the Reason why it's lower is because it just Hasn't done anything in a while right it Had a great rally in 20 late 2022 and Early 2023 but it hasn't really done Much since then it's just kind of been Relatively stagnant um same thing with With Cosmos with Adam I mean it's at 39 Risk and sometimes I think like as Investors we have this habit of selling You know selling what's moving to the Something that's not but a lot of times I will say you know just because Something's at a high risk level doesn't Mean it can't continue to go to higher Risk levels right I've seen that happen Many many times sometimes someone will Chase something that's at a lower risk Level in anticipation of it moving well What ends up happening is the thing that

Was already moving moving keeps moving And the thing that was at a low risk Level was at a low risk level for a Reason um so you have to remember that Right like it it's not always worth Constantly chasing the next thing in Hopes that it pumps sometimes you just Got to ride your winners and and let the Losers be but that is is my general Thought process on on on all this stuff And you know one thing we can do is we Can go to that we have this dashboard um That accounts for the risk metric as Well as other price related risk for Bitcoin currently 466 risk this is the Reason it's lower is because it includes Other types of risk in here right like It includes like the fear and greed risk And it includes like you know market cap Risk and and the um uh like the running Roi RIS like different it incorporate it Can incorporate different types of risk And then when you combine them all you Get something that looks like like That right and if you go look at like The the onchain risk you can see Something very similar right I mean the Risk on the onchain risk has gone up so Far to point you know the 0.5 to 6 risk Band back in 2019 it topped out you know Right around 602 risk right around 6 Risk um and this the onchain risk is Made up of of all sorts of things right Like the mvv zcore the peel multiple um

The mvrv the the transaction fees risk Right all sorts of things you can see The transaction fees risk really spiked Up recently to that one level which is Exactly where it spiked up to in in 2017 Now some people say the transaction fee Stuff isn't as useful now because of the Ordinals and that might that may be true I'm just showing you what the risk is Based on the historical record that's All I'm Doing so and then of course we have the Social risk which we've made very many Videos on and it's still only at 0 206 So when we think about you know Navigating Bitcoin based on the risk Levels right I use this right this is What I use this is what I use but you Can use all sorts of things right like You can look at all sorts of indicators That oscillate between a certain range And say all right I'm just going to Stick to this right if it goes low Against this range I'll buy if it goes High against this range I'll sell and Just sticking to that no matter What Now if you go over to the summary risk Which includes the social risk the Onchain risk and the price risk this is What it looks like um and you can see That that risk is currently at 0 403 Note that in 2019 it topped out at Around

0.5 um in you know in 2016 in mid 2016 it found a top around 04 before it cooled off significantly For quite a few months right now it's Currently at 0 403 it already went up to Around3 or so um but again that's just Where the current risk level is so when We think about navigating the Cryptoverse I think it it really can be Extremely stressful if you're constantly Changing your strategy based on the news Cycle and and and on all this other Stuff but I just want to reiterate again And again and again that my strategy is To DCA Bitcoin when it's at a low enough Risk level and to start selling some if It goes to a high enough risk level I'm Not in the diamond hands forever Camp I'm just not like I'm not I don't I Don't I mean for me investing is is a Way to um you know I mean it's just a It's a way to make money I'm not like I'm not going to Diamond hand something If I if I think it's going to drop 70 or 80% again if you if you don't mind that History shows it tends to work out for You anyways um but that's just not my Strategy like my strategy is to say well You know if we get up into extremely High risk levels I want to take some Profits off the table if we go to low Enough risk levels I want to buy some Bitcoin the reason I bought Bitcoin In you know a year ago or a little over

A year ago was because the risk levels Was relatively low and again all of that Was published in ITC Premium if we get to a point where Bitcoin Dominance breaks up closer to 60% and ALT Bitcoin pairs break down Then I think altcoins might become more On my radar but I will remind people That 202 4 Ben is different than 2020 Ben and back in 2020 I would have Already been KNE deep in the altcoin Market and you know I didn't know that a Massive crash was about to happen and I'm not saying it has to play out like That but I didn't know that was going to Happen and I got my portfolio completely Rinsed and it was awful um this cycle I'm just being a little bit more risk Averse by you know by by sticking more With Bitcoin over the altcoins but if if Bitcoin dominance were to go up higher And um and and then I felt like all Coins were done bleeding against Bitcoin Collectively then I might get interested In the altcoin market that doesn't mean You can't make money in in the altcoin Market i' I've said that many times like If you want to take on more Risk you know the um the risk levels are There right for the altcoins they're There just my strategy has been um a Bitcoin heavy strategy for several years Now just in terms of in just an

Anticipation of this exact Bitcoin Dominance rally you know the the the Most brutal thing about crypto is if You're like kneed deep in the altcoin Market and then you click if you have Your portfolio tracker up everyone looks At the USD valuation of their portfolio If you're knee knee deep in altcoins and Your portfolio just keeps bleeding Against Bitcoin that's a problem right You're taking on more risk and you're Getting less reward now if you go over To your altcoin portfolio and you see it Increasing in its Satoshi value then You're doing something Right I'm not anti alts I just think When the dominance rally is happening Why not just R you know why not just Stick with the King when the dominance Rally is over then altcoins for me Become more interesting I'm not trying To take away from what anyone else wants To do that was just my strategy I will Say in the future um you know in future Cycles I might not talk as much about About the dominant stuff because it Seems like it it has led to a lot of Resentment um even though many altcoins Have LED against Bitcoin and the Bitcoin Dominance I mean hell like I just I Can't even imagine um I mean look at Look at like monthly hi kinashi candles For dominance I mean it's basically just Been up only since December 2022 so this

Is one of those things where it's like Yeah technically I was right about it But a lot of altcoins went up too and I I found that a lot of people despite my Best efforts right despite my best Efforts a lot of people only care about USD evaluations they do not care about Satoshi evaluations and so I'm going to Stick it through for this cycle for sure I mean I'm gonna I'm gonna as as as long As bitcoin's dominance is going up I'm Not going to um you know to change my Strategy but I think in future Cycles I I might um might focus on on other Things um because that seems to be what Other people wouldn't you know would Prefer right to focus on USD evaluations As opposed to Satoshi valuation so this Cycle I'm going to keep on doing what I've I've I've done and what I've Suggested I'm going to keep watching Dominance see if it can break to the 05 Retracement which is at 56% and then Theoretically go all the way up to 60% Um but I just want to you know let People know that in the future it might Not be as much of a topic for me and I Also know that the higher the dominance Goes and the closer we get to that 60% Target the people that listen to me you Know like I the the the further you wait Into the dominance rally to convert your Alts to bitcoin the riskier it is Because you end up being the person that

Might do it at the at the top of Bitcoin Dominance right so I still think Dominance can go higher but I just don't Want people to sort of fall into that Trap I mean the time to convert alts to Bitcoin would have been you know two Years ago not not now I mean it doesn't Mean that it doesn't mean that Bitcoin Dominance won't go up more I think it Will it's just that um you know that That strategy was laid out two years ago And right now I think it's it's pretty Pretty late to to sort of just now hop On board that Trend but I do I I still Do think there's a case to be made that It'll go up um you know to around 60% or So and hopefully it can do so in the um In the not so distant future so I I Think I can live with myself uh for Keeping a Bitcoin heavy portfolio for The last couple of years considering This Bitcoin dominance rally has Occurred I understand there's been a lot Of resentment though because of it and I Really don't like being the bad guy um So I just want to be you know clear About about my future intentions on the Channel um and also to you know we'll Just keep following I'll keep of course Following um Bitcoin and the current Risk level right now is 62 risk just for Reference uh remember the risk levels Are dynamic they change they're not Going to stay put but just for reference

Um at 60k that corresponds to 681 risk At 56k that's 65 risk um for risk is all The way down at 29k so if we get some Type of like crash like that that would Just be the level that would correspond To to 04 risk would be about a $29,000 Bitcoin um3 risk is $21,000 Bitcoin and Then just go to look at the other Spectrum 08 risk is $78,000 Bitcoin and 7 risk is $63,000 Bitcoin right so keep In mind that anything on this table here Can happen right all the way from zero Risk all the way up to to one anything In that table can happen because that's What has historically marked the range Of Bitcoin accounting for diminishing Returns right so if it's on the table it Would imply that it is theoretically Possible and what your job should be to Manage your risk the higher we go for me The less exposure I have the lower the Risk the more exposure that I have and That's the way that I navigate the Cryptoverse if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and again Check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse decom links in the Description below and I will see you Guys next time bye

Coinbase
OUR TAKE

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