Bitcoin: Return on Investment Discretized Monthly

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be looking at the monthly average return On investment or Roi over various time Frames if you guys like the content make Sure you subscribe to the channel give The video a thumbs up and also check out The sale on into the crypto versus Premium at into the Let's go ahead and jump in So the monthly average return on Investment we must first Define what We're talking about so basically the Idea is you pick a month and you say all Right well if you bought Bitcoin on any Day during that month what was your Roi 90 days later historically speaking Averaged over all these years right So let's just pick July it would say Okay well on average from going back all The way to 2010 what would have been Your 90-day Roi buying every day in July So if you bought on July 1st and it Looks 90 days ahead Um and says Okay that was what the Return would have been if you bought on July 2nd same you know and we just keep Going 90 days from that time point and Then averages all of those days from That month looking out 90 days to give You an idea of in general when has been The best time to buy Bitcoin based on Say a 90-day return on investment note

That any given year of course anything Can happen we also do know that Bitcoin Is fairly cyclical and so perhaps it is Worthwhile to continue look at this Stuff Now on average The worst month for buying Bitcoin with A 90-day Roi time frame in mind Is June now it still averages out to be Positive in fact on average every month Is positive in terms of a 90-day Roi June comes in at 1.086 July is 1.131 but you can see that on Average the 90-day return buying in June And July tends to be the worst for Bitcoin Now that's not to say the Bitcoin can't Go up in June uh it's not to say that it Can't go up in July we know that it can In fact Bitcoin did go up in June but When you think about it what we're Looking at right now is the 90-day Return Nar the 30-day return or the 60-day return we're looking at the 90-day return And the 90-day return for buying in June Would be sometime out in September now Normally as we know September for Bitcoin Is one of the worst months right Negative seven percent on average with a Large standard deviation of almost 13 Percent but if you think about it that's Why buying in June tends to not provide

The best 90-day returns because if you Were looking to flip it you know flip The trade in 90 days historically that Would be sometime in September September It normally brings lower prices not Higher prices so I think that's one of The reasons why June and July provide The lowest 90-day return on investment As you get later into the year It tends to be a bit better right so Buying in October on average has led to A 1.89 X over the next 90 days Um Buying in in January and and February 1.8 or so buying in March when you Average out from 2010 tends to do the Best now one issue with this is that When you average out for 2010 it's going To include some months that just gave Astronomical returns right at least Fewer to go look at monthly returns back In 2009 and 2000 or sorry 2010 here I Mean you had some months right that gave 220 percent this was 221 percent here's A July or in April it gave 418 percent So it makes it difficult sometimes when You're looking at monthly moves that Were like that in terms of trying to get A a decent signal out of this okay Because I mean you can also flip this Over to say like a one-year Roi And see when his historically been the Best time but I would say why not Exclude some of the first couple of

Years just so we get past some of those Monthly moves where Bitcoin went up like Several hundred percent right because That doesn't really happen anymore I'm not saying that it can't happen but It's not nearly as likely for Bitcoin to Go up 300 today in a single month uh Than it was a long time ago but it would Be a very low probability event so if You were to exclude 2010 and maybe 2011 And just start in 2012 you still get Something that shows that June and July Provide the worst 90 day returns If you go to 2013 You still see it right and this is Basically including data from 2013 Onward not just 2013 2013 to the present Day If you started in 2014 You can still see that June June is the lowest then January and then July But it's interesting how the summer Months especially June Tends to provide the worst 90-day Roi Again it's not to say that Bitcoin can't Go up as it did it's just that if you're Looking for it for say a three-month Move it tends to not work out like you Want you might expect right like Sometimes a move goes sometimes Bitcoin Goes up but then normally by you know August September it starts to Trend back Down

So just something something to think About now if we look at this from say 2014 and we look at a one-year Roi You can see that on average the best Time uh you know the the the 90 day or Sorry that yeah the 365 day Roi tends to Be the best in December now you could be Playing with fire because you know Oftentimes uh Bitcoin has seen major Peaks around that time frame November December but I guess the thing is is had You bought the year before then your Average one-year return before you know The parabolic rally year would have been Quite good so hopefully you know Hopefully that makes sense you can also Look at at what provides say the best Um you know half year Roi and in this Case average doubt from 2014 to uh to The present day June and July are Actually some of the best times why is That Well in this case if you're looking over A six month window normally you're Looking to then sell at the end of the Year and from a seasonality perspective We know that Bitcoin saw some major tops At the end of 2013 and into 2017 and the End of 2021 and we also saw a pretty Nice parabolic rally even at the end of 2020 Um and and even late 2016 going into Early 2017. so that is why if it's a Six-month time frame then June and July

Tends to be better if it's a three month Time frame then June and July is not as Good because then you're looking to sell It around September so a lot of times When you think about investing in crypto And people say well is it a good Investment or not I mean a lot of times It depends on what your time frame is if It's if it's a week no one really knows Um if it's three months then you you Know oftentimes it is at least Worthwhile to consider some of the Seasonality for it Especially considering that September Time frame tends to not be a great month For Bitcoin Um and and so on and so forth right so I Think it's it's worthwhile to think About it in that light just so you go in With the you know appropriate Expectations right like if you're Yoloing into Bitcoin in June with the Expectation you're going to flip it Three months later that tends to be the Worst time to do it right June to September You can oftentimes find much better time Frames to make say like a 90-day trade If history is any indication remember This stuff doesn't have to play out Every single time you know every single Time we go into September and we say Well it tends to be rad it doesn't have To be but it tends to be and then you

Know for for years and years and years It just has been read six months in a Row been read maybe we'll be on lucky Number seven uh once we get to this September but I don't know we'll see We'll see how it plays out But anyways Um if you if you look at this average Say just for the last last cycle to now Um or maybe let's say 2019 to 2023 You'll still see that the 90-day Roi in June tends not be that great it's the Lowest month Okay one year Roi Best month has been March since 2019. Worst month June In July June and July So one of that's one of the reasons why You know we talked about a little bit Yesterday or sometime recently about the Year-to-date Roi for Bitcoin I'm talking about this a lot right going Into the the prehabbing year normally in The prehabbing year you do see it turned Back around sometime halfway through the Year Okay And that's why that 90-day Roi buying in June in July doesn't tend to work out That well now it doesn't mean that it Can't go off in the short term and I've Said before where it could you know you Could see Bitcoin pop up higher if

Anything it would be a welcome move to Get the dominance the Bitcoin higher Which I still think needs to go higher But I think it's going to go higher Regardless of whether Bitcoin goes up or Down so it's it's a lot of a moot point But if it does go if Bitcoin USD does go Up it's just more bad news for the all Coins I mean you know in the short term Though I go up on their USD pairs Because Bitcoin will drag them up but What happens when Bitcoin rolls over you Know at some point it's going to happen And and when it happens that's when you That's when you see those all coins go Down even further on their Bitcoin pairs At least for for the first couple of Months or so based on what we've seen Historically So this is why we talk about the Seasonality stuff is is because we've Seen these types of moves before we know How seasonality tends to play out with Bitcoin as you get closer to that September time frame and we are starting To approach it I would say I mean right Now it is still possible for Bitcoin you Know to make a another move Um but it hasn't happened yet and I mean The clock is ticking right I mean some Sometimes people talk about you know Price predictions a lot and and and Where you know where is the price gonna Go I think one thing that might be

Better to think about is just time Frames right like you know the price can Trend higher until a certain time frame And whatever the price is by that time Frame is probably only that you know That's probably what it's going to Achieve right so like even in 2013 2017 and 2021 of course it's impossible To predict the exact price but it's just Say well once you get to Q4 of those Years uh whatever the price is normally We start to turn things back around just Like in the pre having year it's like It's hard to know where exactly Bitcoin Is going to find its local top so it's Really hard to know how much that all Coin liquidity is out there and can be Sucked up by Bitcoin which is still what I think is happening it's hard to know Exactly how far that'll take us but Normally It starts to roll over in June July Right sometime in that time frame June Or July and and that is also what this Chart is saying in terms of the 90-day Roi if you guys like the content make Sure you subscribe to the channel give The video a thumbs up but again check Out the sale on into the computer's Premium at into the see You guys next time bye


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