Bitcoin: Pre-Halving Year Returns

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're gonna be Looking at the year-to-date return on Investment or Roi if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out the sale on into the Crypto various premium at into the now I know the title of The video is Bitcoin we're actually Going to take a look at at other ones as Well so we're gonna look at ethereum and We'll look at cardano and maybe a few Others uh so do stay tuned for that I do Want to talk about in general with these Cycles one of the things that often Happens is we tend to think that this Time is different And while we have to admit to ourselves That markets are always changing and Um you know can can do things that we Often don't expect it is good idea Sometimes to remind ourselves well has It at all done anything different than It normally has during the prehabbing Year and I like to go back to that to Remind myself Is it different or is it more or less The same okay When you live through something it Always feels different but then when you Sort of look back on it it might not Really have been that different so this

Is the Bitcoin year-to-date Roi for all The different years and one of the Things I've said before is is why not Isolate You know bear Market Years prehabbing Years having years and and post having Years what's interesting When you look at say 2014 2018 and 2022 They all look more or less the same and This is one of the charts which is why Back in the summer of 2022 a lot of People said that Bitcoin had bottomed Out at 17 and a half right that was a Very popular Theory back then that Bitcoin's low had already occurred and And the 17 and a half was the bottom we Said well you know that would be if you Say that you're making the same mistake That people would have made in 2018 and I was one of those people in 2018 Thinking that 6K was the bottom and then What we saw happen we saw the bottom Fall out at the end of the year and That's again what happened in 2022 so Again against what people were saying Right A lot of people are calling June The bottom And we ended up getting a lower low Eventually now then the question is as Well is that the low or not I mean History shows us that we've seen in in The last two cycles we saw a higher low One came you know 14 months after the December 2018 low the cycle before that

We saw a double bottom in August of the Prehabbing year so we have two examples It was a higher low and a double bottom And we'll see what we get this time Right we'll see what we get we don't Know yet it's impossible to know what it Ends up being but at some point we still Have to resolve this inverted yield Curve right and again normally when you Go into an inverted yield curve the Market is still you know equities are Still climbing the wall of worry it's Only upon typically the uninversion but During periods of inflation uh you could See economic downturns even during Periods of an inverted yokir but you Have you know you have 2014 and 2018 Provided a pretty good road map of what Was going to happen in 2022. I'm one of the one of the things we did Was let's just average out 2014 and 2018 And if you take the average you get This orange line it's like well that Pretty much told you where Bitcoin was Going to end it's here So so far we can see that 2022 was not That different from the prior bear Market years of 2014 and 2018. right it Really wasn't different at all and you Know even though there is a narrative Right that June was the bottom that was Put out it did not come to fruition so Then the question is as well what's Going on in the prehabbing here right is

This time different or is it the same Because again in 2022 there was this Argument that this time was different And that Bitcoin had bottomed out in June when in fact it hadn't so then Let's go to the prehabbing year of 2023. So what normally happens in pre-halving Years what normally happens when I've Said this before right we have we rally For half the year and then we fade for Half of the year that's what typically Happens does that happen this time That's what I think will happen okay now I also thought that we would go lower in Q4 Of 2022 right and we did right we went Lower than 17 and a half it's possible That if FTX hadn't happened maybe I Would have been wrong right there's Always a chance that could have happened I mean if if FCX hadn't blown up then Perhaps I would have been wrong about That thesis so there's always a chance That the thesis that we come up with is Wrong so there's a chance that Bitcoin Does not fade the second half of the Prehabbing year but history would show Us that it has been the most likely Outcome If you look at at 2019 you'll see that This is kind of where the topping Process took place if you look at 2015 You can see that this is the region Where we the topping process took place

Before we ended up getting a double Bottom And even if you look at 2011 you can see That you know the June time frame is Where the topping process took place Before we go before we went back down so In all three prior cases in the Prehabbing year it was around the summer Time that Bitcoin rolled over so in 2011 It occurred in you know day 161 marked The high that was in June I believe Um in 2019 it was day 177 uh in June and Then we more or less had a double top in July on day 179 and then in 2015 it Occurred in July on day 193 and then so Far this cycle the high has come on day 194 and it remains to be seen if if that Will be the high or not Now in the same way that we took the Average of 2014 and 2018 to give us a Blueprint of 2022 and again one of the Reasons why we said that Bitcoin would Likely go lower at the end of the year Is because of that blueprint why don't We do the same thing for 2015 and 2019 We've done a video on this many times But I just want to for completeness show You where we are today right so let's Grab the average of 2015 and 2019 and Again there are a lot of there are a lot Of cries out there that this time is Different right A lot of people saying Hey this time is different and and you Know Bitcoin won't fade the second half

Of the prehabbing here They could be right yeah I mean the guys They could be right I mean it's a market All sorts of people have all sorts of Opinions and you know people are right At times people are wrong at times so we Have to admit that I mean there's no There's no there's no sure thing in a Market there's no such thing as a sure Thing so if you think you know what has To happen you should you should take uh You know maybe a closer look right I Mean it we don't know what has to happen On these markets well we can say there Are probabilities that certain things Play out Um you know and maybe a higher Probability of one outcome over another But it doesn't actually have to happen But again you know in 2023 there's a lot Of people saying well this time is Different if you look at the average of The the last two prehabbing years you Can see that so far this time has not Really been that different in fact we're More or less where we were if you Average out 2015 and 2019 we're more or Less where we were and you can see that While we did have another pop-up here in Sort of the August time frame in 2019 it Did end up being a higher low or sorry a Lower high what's interesting is in August of 2023 will be I guess when we Hear something or by that date something

From the from the SEC about about this Bitcoin spot ETF right we don't know yet What's going to come out of that but Perhaps there could be some type of of Renewed interest there But in the end you know as you get Further out into that September time Frame October November December in the Pre-halving year it tends to fade now if Bitcoin were to come back down to these Levels over here then it actually Correspond to bitcoin going back to Approximately twenty three thousand Dollars so if it were to if it were to Go back down here of course if it goes Back down to where the yearly open was It would it would correspond to a much Lower price you know closer to like 15 16 around 16 000 in order for Bitcoin to Go there I think you need to get into a More material scare of a potential Recession and not just an inverted Yogurt you would need to see the Unemployment rate going higher initial Claims right continue claims you Wouldn't need to see all that going Higher uh and that is a a potential Outcome that we we should you know I Think we should plan for and if that Happens then yeah you certainly could See Bitcoin going back down to the prior Lows remember In in 2019 while 2019 ended the year Pretty good right this is what 2019

Looked like This is not you know it wasn't only up From there right if you if you go out And look at the year-to-date Roi in 2020 I mean it started off okay and then it Dumped like 30 to 35 percenter so if you If you look at Wix maybe even 40 Um from the year of the open and like 60 Or 70 from this high early on in the Having year so we have to remember that As well and again if you take the Average of of 2020 and and 2016 Um so if we just average out 2016 and 2020 and plot that on there what you'll See in those cases So this is 2016 and 2020 is that you can Often start the year off positive but on Average Um you know we can see a sort of Secondary Scare at some point before the Market ultimately Trends higher so I Would say that there have been a lot of Cries that this time is different for Bitcoin and that it's following a Different path so far that remains to be Seen right I mean so far it's no Different from what we've historically Seen In fact what we've seen so far isn't is Is a much more tempered version of 2019 And it's in a more impressive version of 2015 but if you had to imagine like if This low that occurred in January 2015 It actually occurred the previous year

And and we started the year off say here It would actually look very similar to What's going on today right like you Just have to shift this whole curve up You know back up to one you can imagine That this is is somewhat similar as to What's happening today and you can see That ultimately it rolled over into a Double bottom sometime in the third Quarter of the prehabbing year before Then taking back off so I continue to Think until proven otherwise that this Time is not different now again going Into this year my expectation was that Not that Bitcoin had to visit either Side of this range but my expectation Was that the lowest Bitcoin would go This year Would be 12 000 and the highest it would Go this year would be 35 000. now 12 000 Came from this here 25 below the early Open 35 000 came from up here 2.1 x off The early open clearly we have not Visited either of those extremes yet but It doesn't mean we won't so I I would Say that until proven otherwise we are Still following the general blueprint of What Bitcoin has done in the prehabbing Year okay and we will wait to see if That changes now what I find interesting Is that Even though this Market feels very Different and even though the path has Been very different than the last pre

Having year look at ethereum in 2023 and Look at it in 2019. the path has been Different but as measured from the Yearly open the price or the ROI of eth At this point in the pre-abbing year 2019 is the same right 1.5 1.6 X off the Yearly open Now ethereum ended the year below its Yearly open and again you can see that It did not roll over until about halfway Through the year now what's interesting With this time is that it sort of moved Up and then it's just gone sideways so Again it's been a tempered version of 2019 but as you get further out into August September October November December you know it still remains to be Seen as is it going to follow this path Over here or will it deviate so far There has not been a deviation in what We've historically seen again cardano Looks really similar as well right I Mean the path is different admittedly But at this point in the last cycle Ada Was about 1.2 to 1.3 X off its yearly Open which is exactly where it is today And ultimately it closed the year about 20 below it's yearly open now it's Fascinating because you can go look at a Lot of different coins that follow Something similar look at Litecoin in Fact and and take a look here at 2015 And 2019 and then look at 2023. In 2023 it's where it was in 20 it's

More or less where it was in 2015 not 2019 but in all these cases this is Around the time where it started to roll Over now what's more fascinating is that In both years of 2019 and 2015 Litecoin Ended the year up about 1.3 X off its Yearly open which is where it is right Now so perhaps Litecoin Fades here and Then goes back up at the end of the year To end the year at about 1.3 X off its Yearly open it is interesting that and Again maybe a way to visualize this Would be to add the average of 2015 and 2019 for Litecoin and and then remove Just those individual years and then Compare that to to 2023 again It's it's been a relatively dull year You know I mean it hasn't seen the exact Upside the downside has also been Somewhat tempered so my general thinking Is that so far this has not been any Different and maybe we could look at Total market caps the total market cap In 2023 looks something like this What's interesting is that it has not Actually taken out its April high so Bitcoin did take out the April High Total market cap is not it doesn't mean It won't but it hasn't yet and if you Look at 2019 it was more impressive Version of this if you look at 2015 it Was a less impressive version of this in All cases I mean you know you can see That there was a little bit of a renewed

Interest in total market cap around this Time but as you got closer to that September you know August September or More so like let's say mid to late August September time frame you can see The markets rolled over 2015 it was a double bottom more or less 2019 it was just lower highs here we're Kind of in the middle so all in all this Remains a very typical prehabbing year Even the average of 2015 and 2019 for a Total Market Puts you exactly where total market cap Is today in terms of the yearly the Year-to-date Roi so I hear the calls for this time is Different I also heard the calls for this time is Different back in in the summer of 2022. There's so many people that were calling For All Season back then and and calling For the dominance to break down to 30 to 20 or 30 percent so many people saying That the lows were in for Bitcoin and Then look what happened come November And then now we have the prehabbing year And and you know I see all the stuff the Same stuff going up about new all-time Highs this year and all that sort of Stuff and I'm like well you know I've Seen this story before and and I saw how It ended I think it's probably going to End the same way and we'll see history Shows us that Bitcoin normally does not

You know I mean history shows us that it Follows this path by the way I will say A lot of the a lot of the uh a lot of The calls for All Season that you see And a lot of the cause for you know Rapid acceleration Um we're coming from you know similar Voices who would have said that that June was the bottom last year so you Have to remember that there no matter What no matter what there's always going To be people out there that are going to Say that this time is different no Matter what all right always Sometimes they'll be right most of the Time they're probably going to be wrong Just like they were wrong about you know About about last year and and sort of The the June the June those so I will say From my own experience In the prehabbing year Interest tends to fade halfway through The year I think one of the reasons for That is because like we're far enough so Like you have your bear Market year and Everything's oversold and then we just Get sort of a balance but at this point In the prehabbing year we're still far Enough away from the having for it to Not really have a material impact on the Price I think you have to get closer to Like three to six months before the Having before it starts to get more

Hyped up so I think that's one of the Reasons the market Fades is because There's no there's no major major event To look forward to yes we have the spot ETF but that's also occurring in August And again I mean we've seen some renewed Interest in August you know in in July And August before but in in Prior cases It was a lower high and it and then we Just ended up fading back to the Downside as we got into September and October time frame So I just want to remind people that Oftentimes saying this time is different Does not work out oftentimes there are Sometimes I'm sure where it is right I'm Sure if you go back throughout the the Context of History you'll find periods Where it was different and and something That had historically happened uh Deviated from what it normally did but As an investor as an investor why should I at this point assume that it's Different I don't have any reason to Believe it's different yet just like I Had no reason to believe that 17 5 was The bottom in 2022. And there is a lot of there were a lot Of people calling for it back then and It's hard because like you know you you Want to join the the bandwagon right Like if you believe in it long term it's So it's so you want to join the

Bandwagon and say all right well 17-5 That's it you know it's 21k now it's Only up from here But you also there's this thing in the Back your mind that tells you well I Also thought that in 2018 and in 2014 And it wasn't the bottom and then you Get to the prehabbing year And a lot of people are calling for new Highs and it's like well In 2019 and in 2015 it's not what Happened right it's not what happened so We'll see uh we'll see what happens I Will continue to stick to this story Until proven otherwise I suppose if if Come September if if Bitcoin is just Still if it's pushing higher then then Maybe there's some Merit to the to that This time is different narrative right I Mean I as as strongly as I feel about it Not being different I mean if come September you know you're still seeing You're still seeing you know everything Um not fade then yeah I mean I I think There there would be some Merit to talk About it but at this point as far as I Can see it still looks like what we Would normally expect In the prehabbing year so we'll see We'll see if this continues to to play Out again if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and again Check out the sale on into the

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