Bitcoin: Pre-Halving Year Returns

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be looking at preh havinge returns if You guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and check out the sale on Into the cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse decom let's go ahead and Jump in so when you look at this chart You will see in fact that we have where We're generally tracking preh havinge Returns and if we isolate Um 2023 or if you look at 2023 right Here you can see that it's currently Coming in at about 2.4x off the yearly open okay so a Little bit more than 2.1x off the yearly Open now if you show all of them if you Show all of the prior years you can see That the current year is sort of in the Middle of the pack right like it's not Anywhere near 2013 2011 or 2017 so let's Go ahead and take those off But it's also nowhere near our bare Market years of 2014 2018 and 20122 so It it more or less Falls somewhere in in The middle right it it it's it hasn't Been it hasn't gone up as much as it did In 2019 at this point uh but it also Hasn't had the lackluster returns that 2015 had at this point and one of the Things that I often like to do is just Simply compare it this year to other

Preh having years now when we started This year right so when we started 2023 one of the things that I I I Frequently mentioned and have continued To say throughout the year is that I Expected Bitcoin to trade between Approximately 75% of its yearly open to 2.1x off its yearly open right and the The way in which I arrived at that which I mean it is dubious of course but it Was just simply looking at at the Average of the prior prehab years one of The reasons why I I sort of looked at That was if you look at 2022 and you Average out 2014 and 2018 it basically told you where Bitcoin Was going to end the year right the Average of 2014 and 2018 said that you Know said that the the year-to DAT RI by The end of the year was3 38 and the end Of the year Ro for 2022 ended up being 346 right so the end of the year Roi on Bitcoin in 2022 was the average of the Prior to Bare Market years and so you Know one of the things that I I've said Is that if we average out 2015 and 2019 it might give us some insight into The behavior of Bitcoin in in this Prehab year and initially you can see Bitcoin sort of took off a lot quicker Than the average of 2015 and 2019 but They sort of found you know they sort of Found each other uh going into into the

Summer where you can see that and ever Since then really it was tracking it Fairly closely right you can see that Bitcoin went up just as the average of 2015 and 2019 did it sort of tracked That average for a while uh even getting Our you know our our our summer low Where we went down uh we fell below the Bull market support fan thanks to a Seasonal correction in the S&P 500 and it was still trending down and Then we we got this most recent pop up To the upside now at this point I think It it's it would be somewhat fair to say That this is starting to exceed my Expectations for Price action this year Because again what I said was that Around 2 .1x off the yearly open would Essentially Mark the high for Bitcoin in In 2023 but as of right now we're above 2.1x right so we've gone above 2.1x We're currently at um we're currently Sitting at 2.4x right so 2.1x is just appr approximately $35,000 Right so 2.1x off the yearly open is 35k Which I thought if achieved would have Occurred in the summer that was my Assumption right I I thought that if if We were to achieve 35k it was more likely to happen in the Summer um but you can see that it it Still eventually came even though even Though it did not happen in in the

Summer so then of course the the Question is as always is Where Do We Go From Here throughout the end of the year Um you know I look short-term price Predictions are not easy and to be Completely honest right because it's Already exceeded my Expectations um it would be difficult For you know for me to sort of say Anything other than it would likely just Continue to follow the average of the Prior two prehab years but I will say You know one of the things that I've Learned throughout all these years is is Don't underestimate Bitcoin uh don't Underestimate what it can what it can Accomplish to the upside is something we Often forget and and then the same thing Goes for the downside you know we often Forget how far down it can go in those Bare Market years of 2014 2018 and 2022 but so far um you know our Expectations of 2.1x off the yearly open Could Mark the high we have gone above That uh if we were to go look at the Price of Bitcoin right now you can see It's currently I mean it's almost at 36k I don't even it might have already hit Uh it it it looks like it came pretty Close to hitting 36k already it hit 35,9 Se1 so it almost hit 36k um already but that was just sort of The the thesis going into into uh going Into this year and and we have sort of

Extended above that level so I just Wanted to acknowledge that um going Throughout the rest of the year if we Look at prior prehab years you have I Mean you have 2019 right let me get rid Of the average we don't need to look at That right so we'll have 2023 up so you Have 2019 which which actually saw a Very similar pump around this time it Did get a a small selloff into the into Of the year and then it started trending Up again in early 2020 2015 had a had a nice Spike around this Time as well uh and then it sort of it Dropped a little bit uh going into into Sort of mid November leveled off for for A little bit and then and then trended Higher into December and then 2011 um you know basically sort of saw a Downtrend going into mid to late November followed by a little bit of a Renewed uptrend going into the last Month of the year so that's essentially What happened in the in the last three Prehab years uh yes there is the The Spotf Narrative of course that that um Has been sort of the leading narrative For this year my you know people ask me Like what do I think about SPF My Hope Is that they just get approved right I Mean I I think it's been silly that it's Been it's taken as long as it have it Has I hope it just gets approved so that We can um so that we can focus on other

Things I mean again it it seems silly That we have all this other stuff uh That track other markets but you can't You know there's not a SP ETF in in the United States that attracts Bitcoin so Hopefully that hopefully we'll see that Get approved but that is your prehab Returns for Bitcoin so we have in fact Gone 2.1x off the yearly open which was Sort of my expectation for the high-end Target for Bitcoin for this year clearly We are just north of that so we'll see How much juice Bitcoin has left in the Tank over the next month and a half if You guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and again check out the sale On intothe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse decom see you guys Next time bye


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