Bitcoin: Pre-Halving Year Returns

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be looking at prehab year returns we're Going to try to keep this video short I Have received some feedback recently Saying that my videos are too long and Admittedly I do get carried away Sometimes if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and check out Into the cryptoverse premium at into the Cryptoverse dcom one of the things that We often will do is just look at Seasonality just like we will with the St stock market now we recognize that Seasonality will only take you so far uh It's certainly not going to play out in A very specific way every single cycle But one of the things that we have done This this preh having year which is in If we just look at the 2023 year-to date Roi one of the exercises that we have Previously carried out is taking the Average of the last two prehab years and I know early on this year it didn't Really look it didn't really look like a Great fit but it really has been more or Less following it really ever since what About half not even halfway through the Year uh day 165 we sort of started to Follow it and you can see that Essentially what's happened since then Is we've more or less stayed within that

Range of where the average of the last Two prior prehab years took us now one Of the things that's important to Remember as well is that even in the Preh having year of 2019 you can see we you know we sort of Topped out in the summer and let me go Ahead and hide this average one right we Sort of topped out in the summer but in 2019 there was a lot more volatility a Significant amount more volatility in Fact I mean this cycle this sort of this Range up here looks like it barely did Anything compared to the move that we Saw in 2019 it seems like Bitcoin really Accelerated to that $30,000 Mark 30 to 31,000 you know back in what April and Since then it hasn't really gone too Much above that level whereas in 2019 we Went well above that and then just sort Of slowly faded even in 2019 we had you Know a yearly high in June and then a Lower high in July and then it sort of Just kept trickling down but what's Interesting is is there actually was a Bit of a move to the upside around this Time in 2019 and if you again if you Average it out with 2015 it looks Something like this okay in 20 so if the Average of those two prior years Averaged out to to reach around 1.88 X Off the yearly open by day 308 we're Currently at 294 right 290 yeah 295 295 and it's at

1.8x right so not that dissimilar from What we previously seen I did just want To remind people of this and you know Again this stuff is not something you Can take to the bank but I will at least Say that if you were to look at 2022 the Bare Market year and average out 2014 And 2018 what you'll notice is that 2022 Ended up basically following the average Of the last two bare Market years right So it more or less followed that average And so then it's led me to think that Perhaps the average of 2015 and 2019 Could be useful to follow in in this Prehab year and so far I mean it has Been right I mean the the the move off These off the yearly open of of course Was was better in 2023 than it was for These averages but I mean if if this Sort of down move that occurred in 2015 Had occurred just say a couple weeks Before and you just were to shift this Low here up to this one you can imagine It it would look uh somewhat similar at Least in that initial move off of the Lows but anyways I think it's an Important thing to look at I I remember You know 2019 um distinctly and and you know Getting excited for for the for these Moves and then we still didn't really go Anywhere by the end of the year right we Still sort of just hugged this range for

The rest of the year um and then in 2020 What ended up happening is we sort of Rallied then we had our recession and Then we you know we went to QE and and And low interest rates and then Bitcoin You know absolutely took off so I Thought that was an interesting thing to Look at before we wrap it up I I just Want to briefly take a moment to show What it looks like for ethereum Uh and of course we don't really have as Much data for ethereum but you can at Least look at what's going on in 2023 And compare it to 2019 and see that you Know at this point we're not really that We're not it doesn't really look that Much different than where ethereum was In 2019 you know where we are now in 2023 and you can see that as we got into The very end of the year ethereum did Continue to sort of slowly drop off and One of the things that we've said before Is that you know there's a chance like 2019 where Bitcoin closes above the Yearly open but ethereum does not and That's what one of the lessons we saw in 2019 was that Bitcoin closed the year Above its yearly open ethereum closed The year below its yearly open and That's one of the reasons why the Bitcoin dominance when in fact went up So much you can also take a look at at Another asset just to give you an Example and look at like cardano Ada and

Look to see 2023 compared to 2019 it's Not really that dissimilar I mean in Fact you can see that ADA got a little Bit of a move and and the last time we Did a video on Ada we even talked about How you know it could it could get these Moves it doesn't necessarily mean Anything um but you know we'll see how The end of the year materializes you can See how it ended in in in 2019 and um We'll see if it plays out that way in 2023 if you guys like the content do Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up I told you I Was going to keep this one short and I Will try to stick to that so I'll see You guys next time bye


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