Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: Puell Multiple (Identifying Macro Bottoms)

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be putting back on our on chain analysis Hat and discussing the peel multiple the Pure multiple provides insight into Minor profitability and furthermore has Been a historically good indicator for Identifying major bottoms so we want to See what does it say today if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and also check out the Black Friday Sale on into the cryptiverse premium at Into the you can find a Link to that down in the description Below or the pinned comment we did Launch tears as I mentioned a few a few Days ago so there are now tiered levels For into the cryptoverse premium that Was a commonly requested feature that we Have not really had for a long time and So do note that it is there and you can Lock in the lower rate through the end Of the month we'll actually have the Last day be December 1st before before Those prices for all the tiers go back Up so let's go ahead and jump in if You're not familiar with the pill Multiple there's a description for it Right here Um but but essentially it's just Calculated by dividing the value of Daily issuance in USD by the 365 day

Moving average of daily issuance in USD So it provides daily I mean it provides Insight essentially into mining Profitability now when we look at these Charts we always want to figure out you Know what are the main things that it's Trying to tell us well I would argue That historically major Peaks on the Peel multiple tend to be decreasing so Every cycle the Peak at which the pill Multiple hits itself is a bit lower than It was this cycle before and furthermore This is another indicator showing that You know that March and April time frame Was more so the peak technically Speaking back over here a lot of the Indicators that I follow were quite Bearish and saying that we needed to go Back down on at least for the summer And so that was why I was bearish back Then but back in November a lot of the Indicators were nowhere near as as Elevated as they were back in March and April of 2021. so that's something we Can keep in mind for the future for a Future bull market and and keep in mind That perhaps a future Peak on the pure Multiple could be between somewhere Let's say two to three uh something like That but That's not that relevant right now right I mean what's more relevant right now I suppose is where major bottoms occur And if I were to just sort of have a

Little horizontal line here at the Bottom you can see that every single Major bottom for Bitcoin on the pure Multiple Bottomed at around the same level okay That's something that we should keep in Mind And the reason for this is because it we Can often you know make it we can often Look at indicators that tell us only What we want to to see or we can again We can look at all indicators and try to Figure out okay which ones are the more Conservative ones and why and and so far The more conservative approach has been The appropriate one as we we've you know We finally took out the June low as we Suspected that we would now what we're Going to do if we zoom in To every major bottom for Bitcoin the Pure multiple was around 0.3 at the Bottom you can see in 2011 it bottomed Around 0.296 In 2015 it bottoms At around 0.312 In 2018 the pure multiple bottoms at Around 0.304 what do you notice every Major bottom for the pure multiple again Which is based on mining it's a it gives Insight into mining profitability they All bottomed at around point three So this indicator suggests anyways that Mining profitability should eventually Hit or the the pill multiple anyways

Which is a measure of mining Profitability should at some point hit Point three My argument for a lot of these bottoming Indicators that are a little bit more You know stingy than other ones is to is To Simply say well these indicators were Built during a secular bull market in Stocks therefore when the stock market Is in a bear Market I would still expect These indicators at the very least to Get hit right this is what has kept me Cautious throughout 2022 and is what Kept me from saying that June was the Bottom because I didn't think it was It's because there's still several Indicators that say that that you know Bitcoin could in fact go lower Where is the pill multiple today well Right now it's coming in at 0.440 okay So it is still well off the historic low At 0.3 now you might be curious how low Did it go back in June did it get close Enough It went to 0.347 So it got pretty low but even then it Was still well off historic lows right So well off historic close what's also Interesting is it went lower back then Than it is today despite the fact the Price of Bitcoin is lower today than it Was back then however if the price of Bitcoin were to experience further moves To the downside I would especially if it

Were to happen quickly like what Happened back in June I would have to Imagine that we would in fact eventually See this indicator hit once again so Look it's just another indicator I think It should be added into your toolbox It's not going to tell you exactly what Has to happen or when it has to happen But it has been historically good at at Calling macro bottoms and and for that Reason it's worthwhile to at least Consider it You could also maybe try to drown out Some of the noise and look at you know Say like a a short-term moving average Of it like a seven day SMA and even if You look at that you can still see we're Well off historic bottoms when you look At the seven day SMA if you look at a 14-day moving average we're still well With weld off historic bottoms like you Can see it's still still pretty high Compared to where historic bottoms Occurred and then furthermore if you Look at say like a 30-day SMA of the Peel multiple you can see that historic Bottoms have occurred you know a bit Lower than where we currently are so This is just one more indicator that I Think is is useful when navigating the Crypt over so again if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also remember to check out the Black

Friday sale on into the crypto various Premium at into the There are a lot of tiers so I would Encourage you to go check it out and Lock in the low rate we'll run that sale Through December 1st thank you guys for Tuning in I'll see you guys next time Bye


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