Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: HODL Waves

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing the hodal waves if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out in the Cryptoverse premium at inth cryptoverse Where you can of course get access to Charts like this one not only for Bitcoin but also for many other Cryptocurrencies as well so the hot Waves or hotle waves however you prefer Basically give you insight into the Behavior of various types of investors Okay you have the people that just kind Of stick around no matter what and like To hold Bitcoin for long periods of time And then you have the people that just Kind of show up when there's Mania phase And we can isolate those into long-term Holders and short-term holders here's a Description of the hot waves if you if You want just read it you can but If we Isolate short-term holders and long-term Holders short-term holders in this case We're defining as anyone who has been Holding Bitcoin in that wallet for six Months or less at that address for 6 Months or less and what you will find Repeatedly is that at Market at like Mania phases or Market cycle Tops sometimes it'll be sort of a

Midcycle top but you you will see a Mania phase and in that Mania phase the The Percentage of of short-term Holders holding the Bitcoin goes up and Essentially what's happening is the Long-term holders the people who just Kind of DCA Bitcoin and whatnot for Years and years and years they start Selling as the price goes up and they Sell to the people that only want to Come in and buy it when it's absolutely Going parabolic and you can see we had These peaks in 2013 and 2011 and in 2017 You see that peak in short-term holders And then also in 2021 in fact the second top in 2021 we Didn't really see a surge of new retail Interest which is one of the reasons why A lot of people say that the April top Was the the real top I have mixed Feelings about it I can certainly see Even a lot of the own my own indicators That I've developed through the years Certainly say that April 2020 20 April 2021 was the more significant top but at The end of the day I also go back to What I fundamentally believe and that's That price action is King right the Indicators give us an idea of what's Going on but at the end of the day price Action is kink that matters more to me Than what you know what the indicator Says is the top price action is

Ultimately what matters not you know an Indicator and at the end of the day as I've expressed repeatedly many many many Times all models are wrong there's not a Single model out there that is going to Be ultimately correct and the test of Time forever all models are wrong some Are useful that's sort of that's the Quote that's the saying um all models Are wrong some are useful and so it Makes sense to to sort of think like That and and to sort of think like hey The model will give you Insight but it's Not going to tell you exactly what's Going to happen this model looking at Say short-term hotle waves it gives you Insight it says April 2021 was the top At the end the Day if you just sold all your Bitcoin Here in April 2021 and called it a day For the next year or two you're doing Fine right and last cycle as I've said Before the Bitcoin that I did sell I Sold into the first Peak and it was Actually quite a bit I mean I I Published it on ITC premium it was 87% Back then um but the second Top threw me a curveball right I mean None of the indicators were suggesting That it was a significant top and and so What I did to try to help with that in The future is we developed the the Social risk right which which was also Screaming and in the 0. N to1 rband at

That secondary top and it was a lower High but there was still a lot of social Interest and this kind of shows you that The social interest was lower than April Of 2021 May of 2021 it was a lower high So basically price went up but there Wasn't you know a commenor a commenor Amount amount of new retail investors to Keep coming in and sending the price Higher so I just thought that was you Know pretty interesting uh to to look at That and and that was one of the models That you know was developed partly Because of that that double top in in 2021 and I think the social risk has Been really useful it's been helpful to Understand the general direction of like All Bitcoin Pairs and whatnot uh but Yeah if you look at term holders you can Actually see that there was a surge Right here in going into the Having but it wasn't as big of a surge As you know some of the ones we've seen Before and it's hard to really know if It's comparable to this one or maybe Just maybe it's more comparable to what We saw in 2019 where it had a bit of a Surge up couple of them right but then It ultimately just kind of faded back Down and and so it is interesting cuz You you can see that it really went up a Lot but it it kind of just plateaued in April and it hasn't moved a whole lot Ever since right it's mostly been going

Sideways it got a little bump up at the End of May but it's mostly just been Going sideways and of course if you look At the opposite right if you look at at Long-term huddle waves you will see Generally that long-term holders are Sort of selling into these parabolic Rallies right that's why the hotle waves For these go down and then they start to Go back up As you get into into the bare markets Right as people accumulate their Bitcoin Back that they sold going into the Parabolic rally you can see the same Thing happened in 2021 now there was a Little bit of a selloff here no denying It I mean you know this is the thing With onchain data is that like you know And I think a lot of people learned this Lesson the hard way back in 2021 Throughout all 2021 so many people were Just posting all these onchain Indicators and saying that they're just Nothing but bullish and so one of the Things that you know I did because of That because it's it's so hard you know Sometimes to look at the the the Indicator and to say like is it bullish Or bearish because your bias is going to Want to make you think whatever you Already think the Market's going to do Right if you're bearish on the market You're going to look for the bearish Reason why the onchain indicators um

Don't look great or if you're bullish You're going to say the onchain Indicators look great and so sort of Compensate for that that's why we also Have the onchain risk right and it Doesn't really care what you think or What I think it just looks that Historical data for a lot of different Onchain charts and it normalizes that Performance between 0 and one and tells You what the onchain risk is right you Don't have to know if you're you know You don't have to you leave your bias at The Door so going back and and looking at at The long-term hotle waves for Bitcoin you can see that at the top of The long-term hotle waves they they Actually hit around 79% back in in late 20 2023 but then as Bitcoin went parabolic into early 2024 With the spot ETF you can see that it Fell from a high of 79% today it's all The way back down to just just below 71% and if you zoom in right you can you Know you can pretty clearly see that now You could break this down even further Right if you wanted to look at as say Just people who have been holding for One to three months um you can see a Little bit of a spike recently if you Just wanted to look at it for say one to Two years you could see some interesting Trends as well um though it's not as

Obvious when you look at look at it like This because I I feel like you can find Evidence uh to support a lot of Different views but if you look at sort Of this cycle over here you can see that It bottomed out right as the top was Forming here it bottomed out kind of Right after the top formed and then over Here it actually bottomed out right at That secondary top right in November of 2021 and again It's it's only obvious in hindsight you Know is it is it bottoming out now does It have a little bit more to go but These are charts that you can use and Like you can see like all right is it Bottoming out or is it is it continuing To go down one interesting thing though Is that from this cycle to this cycle it Was a higher low so maybe this one will Be a higher low as well the counter Point of course is that this 2013 cycle Was actually higher up right it was all The way up here but anyways that's the The video on the onchain stuff for the Hotle waves hopefully it's us useful to You guys make sure you guys check out uh Into the cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse decom you can access this Sort of stuff not only for Bitcoin but For a lot of other cryptocurrencies as Well and um I will see you guys next Time if you're wondering why I'm not Talking about the price as much uh it's

Because I'm actually out of town I'm Recording this video on June 14th and so I don't even know what the price of Bitcoin's going to be by the time I Actually publish this video again I'm Going to be out of town and so a lot of The videos will just be like delayed Because I I'll be out of town and I just Want to release something while I'm gone Um so it's not just a ghost town um try To lead to a little bit of incre you Know surge in the social risk but I mean At the time that I'm making this video Bitcoin's you know sitting just north of $66,000 uh of course by the time you're Watching this video it might be entirely Different but that's where we currently Stand thank you guys for tuning in give The video a thumbs up subscribe I'll see You guys next time and I also hope to See some of you guys at at Bitcoin my Not not Miami it's not in Miami this Year Bitcoin Nashville in uh in July so I'll see you guys there hopefully if you Are there bye