Bitcoin Monthly Returns

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be looking at monthly returns if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out the sale On into the cryptoverse premium at into The let's go ahead and Jump in so in the past we've talked About how there's very cyclical nature To bitcoin and in the same way we had a Bear Market in 2014 2018 and 2022 we Also saw relatively sideways years in 2015 and 2019 to help you better Understand how this is sort of reflected With regards to monthly Returns what You'll notice is if you go look at say 2014 you'll see that we had about I Believe eight red months so in 2014 only Four of the months actually were green Furthermore in 2018 you'll notice we Only had three green months right so in 2014 we had nine Redmond or in 2014 we Had eight red months In 2018 we had nine red months and then In 2022 we had eight red months again so This is very you know reflective of just A bear Market year where you essentially Have you know most of the year except For maybe three or four months most of Them are red right most of them are red But then it sort of raises the question Well what do we normally see in years

Following these years where Bitcoin just Tends to go down eight or nine months And what you'll notice in 2015 is while There was some further red I mean it's Not like you know it's not like we get Out of the bear Market year and then It's just roses for the next year but What you will notice is that it's a bit More even right so in 2015 you'll notice That we had about five red months right In 2019 we had six red months so rather Than just seeing it very lopsided to to The down Direction in terms of monthly Returns we actually saw it a bit more Even so remember 2014 2018 and 2022 they Were all about eight or nine red months For that year whereas 2015 and 2019 were More about five or six red months for That year now of course a lot of people Ask constantly you know will Bitcoin Eventually go lower than where it Currently is and and we only have two Examples to really look at right I mean We have 2015 and 2019 and in 2015 we did Go lower and then in 2019 we did not so It's important to recognize we don't Really have a ton of data points of Course there are some indicators that Suggest we could eventually go lower but Again in the grand scheme of things when You think about the years after bear Market years we don't really tend to go Much of anywhere right and so that's the That's really probably the bigger point

To to sort of understand is that you Know in 2019 we went up for a while but Then we sort of faded that rally in the Second half of the Year whereas in 2015 We went down for a little bit and then We sort of scraped below scraped the Bottom for a while and then at the very End of the year we slowly went up so Regardless of the direction that Bitcoin Goes in the short term I would Anticipate that by the end of the year The market is still going to be probably Not too dissimilar from where it is Today now that doesn't mean it couldn't Be lower it couldn't be higher but I Just don't see us going into a sustained Bull run to new highs in 2023 I know This is uh uh uh you know something that I I see some people talking about and Hoping that we'll see new all-time highs This year unfortunately I don't see that As a high likelihood especially within The context of of the the macro Conditions that we face now it doesn't Mean that Bitcoin won't be able to go on A bull run you know like 2024 2025 time Frame But you know history does show us that The year after these primary bear Market Years being 2014 and 2018 and now Potentially 2022 The market is rather boring right and It's about half and half half the months Tend to be green about half the months

Tend to be read In 2015 we started off with 31 to the Downside right that marked the market Cycle bottom right that marked the Markets talk about it was like the last Major capitulation and then it was over And then that was that was basically all We all we had in terms of in terms of Further downside for that year and then Out of that we just had a very slow Recovery where we had a brief recovery In February to the tune of 16 but then March April and May were all red but Again we were still slowly climbing out Of this sort of pit that we had dug Ourselves so again I would say you know As we as we continue to make our way Into 2023 right now you can see that Bitcoin is up about two or three percent Or so for the year obviously not a whole Lot I mean right now bitcoin's coming in At just below seventeen thousand dollars My my general advice of course is not Financial advice is to just sort of Temper your expectations for this year Be prepared for probably about half the Half the months to be read and half the Months to be green and and then we'll Look towards 2024 2025 time frame for For hopefully a a more sustained bull Run again if you look at Average returns uh you will see that in Fact you know it used to just be that September was the only month on average

That was read but now it's actually also August has been slightly red as well of Course we could make this so it only Takes data from say 2014. there's a lot Of um you know there's a lot of Crazy moves that happened really early On because bitcoin's market cap was a Lot smaller if we just look at at say Averages from 2014 you'll see that September is still red and then January And March on average are red right if You just look up From 2014 Um onward but the good news I suppose is That April May June July and August Tends to be a green it tends to be green When you average it over over over Several years but Um just something I thought was uh Interesting way to look at the chart we Can also look at it as a heat map if you Prefer Let me change this back to 2010 so if you look at it like a heat Map you can maybe see the the red months Or the the really down months a little Bit easier obviously June of 2022 is a Pretty bad month April May of 2021 was a pretty bad month And and so on and so forth this chart Down here you know was something that I I put together it's basically called Like counting monthly returns so the Whole idea is we just add one anytime we

Have a green month and we subtract one Anytime we have a red month and if you Do that you get something that looks Like this which is kind of interesting Because you know what it really shows That for the first like seven or eight Years of bitcoin's existence it really Was having a lot more green months than Red months Um but really ever since like 2018 we've Actually been kind of stuck in this Range in fact and and you could actually See the lower count on the bottom down Here is actually 16. so if you're Curious where the current count is it's Actually at at 18. Okay so Perhaps this is one of the more dubious Uh ways to sort of measure bitcoin's Monthly returns but if at some point This year we see this at 16 Um it would actually correspond to you Know to Prior major lows Not only would It correspond to January 2019 Which would have been you know I mean That was just right after the December Bottom right I mean that you have to get Into January to know what the December Return was so this marked the market Cycle bottom you know coming out of December 2018 and then the next time we Went that low was wouldn't you know March of 2020 right so March of 2020 was The next time we went down to that count Of 16. and currently

You know currently the count is is right Around that 17 18 Mark so not that far Away Um from that you know from that 16 Mark We could also do it where we add one and Subtract one if it's a ten percent move Or more to the upside or plus or minus Two if it's more than a ten percent move To the upside and if you do it like that You get something that looks a little Bit more bullish right where you know if You if you don't really care about about The the percent moves then a plus two Percent move is weighted the same as Like a plus twenty percent move but if You weight it a little bit either being Below 10 or above 10 percent you get Something that looks like this right Um where it still has you know the count Has slowly trended higher so the the Count here in January 2019 would have Been 35 then in March it was 38 and then Recently it's just right around 44 or 45 But hopefully this video is somewhat Useful in terms of you know in terms of Understanding bitcoin's historic monthly Returns and and kind of segment them Based on bear Market years based on Recovery years again my general Expectation is that 2023 is going to be A recovery year not in the sense of us Going to new all-time Highs but just in The sense of trying to carve out some Macro bottom right

Um I think that's sort of going to be The goal of 2023 and then 2024 will have The having we will likely have QE and And we'll likely have a another bull run Right another cycle where where crypto Goes back up to the upside but until That time you know 2023 Plenty of time uh before we before we Get to that area hopefully you guys like The content remember to check out into The cryptober's premium at into the we do have the sales still Going on so make sure you check that out Make sure you subscribe if you're not Subscribed give the video a thumbs up I'll see you guys next time bye


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