Bitcoin: Monthly Returns

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing monthly returns if you Guys like the content make sure you Subscribe to the channel give the video A thumbs up and also check out the sale On into the cryptographers premium at Into the we have Discussed the thesis many times before This year that in the prehabbing years We spend approximately half the year Going up and half the year going down And generally what that does look like In 2011 and 2019 was five of the first Six months were green and then five of The last six months were read For 2019 or sorry for 2015 it was Slightly different when four of the First six months were red and then we Ended up having Um you know five of the last six months Be green but what's interesting in that Situation is we still had about seven Green and five red months so in all Prior prehabbing years we saw six green Six red plus or minus one because in 2019 and 2011 it was six and six Today the current count sits at five Green And two red August is of course still in progress so We cannot make any determination yet on What August will ultimately bring

Going into the month of July I said that The average return for Bitcoin in July Of the pre having year is negative 4.74 percent The number that actually came out in July was negative 4.09 percent so in This case it's an example where the the Most likely outcome early let's just say That the average outcome maybe not the Most likely But the average outcome based on the Historical record in prehabbing years Ended up more or less being what we saw In July Which is interesting because of course You know if you look at many julys over The course of bitcoin's history the Average return is nine percent plus or Minus 16 pretty large deviation there Large variance of course but when you Break it down by the prehabbing year You can see that it it gives you a Slightly different result And if you take a look at 2019 it was About negative seven and a half percent 2015 was about eight percent in July and 2011 was about negative 15 now that Brings us to August going into August What are General expectations for Bitcoin well the average return in August for Bitcoin over all of its History is actually negative point six Percent but again there's a huge Variance on this it is at least notable

Though to say That involve history the only two months That are on average red are August and September and September being very much More red than August on average on Average in September we see about a Seven percent Decline and you can see in Fact the last six septembers for Bitcoin Have in fact been or for have in fact Been read For August in the prehabbing year of 2019 we saw a four and a half percent Drop in 2015 we saw a 19 drop and in 2011 we saw about a 40 drop if you Average out the historical prehabbing Year months of August you will see that The average return on Bitcoin in August Of the prehabbing year is approximately Negative 21 percent Be that as in May 2011 we must note has A pretty large drawdown and so you could Exclude that and only look at 2015 and 2019. When you do that though you still come Up with a negative number right if you Were to take negative 19 And negative seven and a half negative Eight percent you're still looking uh More or less at an average return in August of of you know somewhere around 11 12 something like that so what we've Seen though in every prehabbing year August has in fact been read for Bitcoin But I would again go to say I would go

As far to say that the reason for this Correction is not crypto specific it I Think there's elements of it I I think That Bitcoin dropping below the 20 week As to May around Q3 of the prehabbing Year would it what it accomplishes is it Washes out the remaining all coin Projects that are that are not going to Provide any utility or they have real no Purpose no no great purpose being here It washes a lot of those out not all of Them there's always a few uh that kind Of stick around But it washes out quite a few of them Furthermore one of the reasons we see This correction by by Bitcoin around This time is of course because of Seasonality in the stock market which We've talked a lot about so I'm not Going to spend a lot more time in this Video talking about it but I did at Least want to provide the monthly Returns table so that you can see that July more or less came in at Expectations for August the average is Negative 21 to the downside in Prehabbing years if you exclude 2011 It's more like negative 11 or negative 12 something like that for the record Just so we we can go test this out a Negative you know a 10 drop in August if We actually go get the um sort of the The monthly Where we started off the the month here

A 10 drop would put would put Bitcoin Back about 26 000 which I mean it's not Not that far but it's not really that Unheard of we were at 26k just a few Weeks ago or a few months yeah a few Weeks ago it it wouldn't really be uh That drastic you can see just in June we Were at we were at 26k a 21 drop of Course would be a lot more substantial And it would put Bitcoin back at around 23 000 and that might be an interesting Number because if you were to look out That year-to-date Roi of Bitcoin which We've talked about this chart a lot as Well and you average out 2015 and 2019 And you look at it in the context of 2023 these lows here you can see would Actually be below this low and this low Here was in that 24 to 25k level so a Correction by Bitcoin of 20 from the Current valuation would put Bitcoin at Around 23k which is around where this Base was for the average of both 2015 And 2019. but again the purpose of this Video was just to provide you a brief Update on the Bitcoin monthly returns Table hopefully this is useful I do Think well while seasonality is Important it's always not everything Right like there are times when the Historical average does not play out Okay it does not always have to play out Just because it played out in the past And a lot of people have asked me my

Views on the spot ETF and you know There's there's always going to be Something that could cause the the path To deviate from the historical record so Again there's no such thing as a sure Thing you should not look at monthly Returns and say that it has to play out In the in the exact same way it did in The past just because July played out in The same way that the average of the Last pre having or the last three Prehabbing year July's played out Doesn't mean that August necessarily has To play out in the same way that has Previously played out in the last three Prehabbing years but I do want you to be Aware that there are some seasonality Effects that have taken hold of Bitcoin Around this time and and if it if it Plays out again then it would not be That different from what we've Historically seen if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Again check out the sale on into the Crypto versus premium at into the thanks for tuning in and I'll see you next time bye


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