Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptiverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing monthly returns and we're Going to take a look at the year-to-date Roi if you guys like the content make Sure you subscribe to the channel give The video a thumbs up and check out the Sale on into the cryptographers premium At into the cryptiverse.com let's go Ahead and jump in so one of the things We've mentioned is that following the Bear Market years you get of 2014 2018 And 2022 you get your recovery years of 2015 2019 and 2023 and Recovery years Can be difficult in different ways than The primary bear Market years could be In Bear Market years like 2014 2018 and 2022 you typically just see us go down For the most part if you look at the Number of red months in 2014 you can see That in fact we had eight of them if you Look at the number of red months in 2018 We had nine of them and if you look at 2022 we had eight red months now that's Very different from what we saw in 2015 Where you can see we only had five red Months in 2019 where we had six red Months so recovery years typically for Bitcoin anyways are a mixed bag is what We've typically seen You see about half a year uh give you Green months and about half the year Give red months and we've seen that time
And time again in 2019 a lot of those Green months were sort of front loaded In the first half of the year and in 2015 a lot of the green months were sort Of in the in the latter half of the year So far in 2023 we can see that we've had Three green months in a row uh I still Would have the general expectation that You're going to have about half and half This year about half green months and Half red months I know right now uh Prices is is going up quite a bit and so It's hard it's hard to imagine having a Red month but I do think when we look Back on 2023 It'll be remembered as as more or less a Recovery year where we see about half Green and and half red not that Dissimilar from 2019 and not that Dissimilar from 2015. the other thing I Wanted to take a look at was because We've mentioned this many times is the Year-to-date Roi for Bitcoin and you you Know we've talked a little bit about This before if you take 2014 and 2018 And you take the average of those two Years you get something that looks like That if you then hide 2014 and 2018 and Overlay this with 2022 this is what it Looks like and what you'll notice is That the average Um Of 2014 and 2018 Essentially was able to sort of
Encapsulate the the sort of the the bear Market low you know to the low end and To the high end for the entirety of 2022 And so the argument going into 2023 if You remember the argument was well what If so if we have that's 2023 and then we Have 2019 and we have 2015. the argument Is well what if we average out 2015 and 2019 to get an idea of General Expectations for the duration of this Year in terms of the potential moves to The upside and the potential moves to The downside and if you do that and we Take the series we add 2015 in 2019 Um and we sort of overlay that that's What you get now let's go ahead and hide 2015 and 2019 and you'll see that so far We have more or less stayed within the Bounds provided so one of the things We've mentioned is that the bounds Should theoretically range from 25 Below the yearly open to 2.1 x above the Yearly open right so this is 2.1 x up Above the yearly open to a 25 move down Below the yearly open now if you do the Math on that it means the it means that 2023 that price should stay above around 12 and a half K but it also should stay Below approximately 35k and the reason We get those numbers if you take the Yearly open I think the yearly opens Around 16 500 about 25 below that level Would put you at around 12.5 at about 2.1 x above that level would put you in
The mid 30s or or so now I'm not saying We have to visit either of those Extremes but my general speculation for This year as a whole is that it's more Or less going to be remembered as a Relatively choppy year where both the Bulls and the Bears Get Wrecked and now I know when we said that a few months Ago I think a lot of people sort of think About like oh well the Bulls and the Bears Get Wrecked Um you know that makes sense but then Living through it is a completely Different thing so you can see that you Know just how easily it is just how easy It is during recovery or years for both Sides to get wrecked so far it's Obviously been the Bears after after the Bulls were completely wrecked for all of 2022. so far in 2023 it's playing out uh Very similar to Prior recovery years for Bitcoin where both sides Get Wrecked so Far the the Bears are in fact getting Wrecked but I do imagine uh in the back Cut this year we'll also sort of see the Other the reverse play out as well so Anyways this is is sort of the general Expectation of this year again I get That the see the sort of the excitement Right now is is is contagious Um but at least with my experience you Know the sort of 2015 and 2019 they they Were not they were not leading to new
All-time highs we eventually came back Down and um and then moved up a lot more Or in the having year and then the year After the having year this is at least What history shows us and so I will Continue to operate under that Assumption but it also shows you in General that it's good to have a plan How you navigate the market of course For me with Bitcoin uh I just stick to DCA into the risk levels but the altcoin Market of course is a bit more is a bit More cumbersome mainly because a lot of The altcoin market can still bleed Against Bitcoin well in to recovery Years and even into the following years As well so you always want to make sure You're checking in on the Bitcoin Valuations as you as you navigate Bitcoin I think a lot of people are are Really used to bitcoin underperforming The rest of the market especially if you Joined in say mid to late 2021 but as You can see Bitcoin is fully capable of Of showing relative outperformance Compared to the rest of the market both When Bitcoin goes up on its USD pair and When it goes down if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Again check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at into the Cryptiverse.com I'll see you guys next Time bye
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