Bitcoin Jack: “I try to think more about when than where” for price

We cannot let this happen we need to Kind of fix it money is just flowing out Of the space is trading stressful for You or has it ever been that's what Silvergate is for we would just have a Lot of fun and drink and um walk funny Welcome to crypto trading secrets with Benjamin Pyrus Hey everyone thanks for listening to Another episode of coin telegraph's Crypt trading Secrets podcast today's Guest goes by the name Bitcoin Jack on Twitter although his actual handle is BTC Jack Sparrow Jack is a well-known Personality on Twitter and approaches Trading from an interesting mindset he Has experience in computer programming And seems to have applied those skills To his trading all right here's Bitcoin Jack hey Jack how's it going I'm good It's nice having you uh on a podcast Together again it's been a while a lot Has changed since uh in the last couple Years it's been wild yeah it's been a Very crazy few years I think the last Time we went on a podcast together was In 2019 already like early 2019 so That's that's almost four years ago MH And uh reflecting back on it it's been a Lot of up and down since right for sure So since crypto has some unique Twitter Names I'm I'm just curious to know the Back story behind yours if you're

Comfortable telling me I think it kind Of originated in when I was visiting Chicago with um a couple of crypto Friends I was working with back then and We would go out a few times during my Visit into to different clubs and they They saw me drinking and we got drunk And I kind of had a funny walk a little Bit like um the pirate himself so these Guys started calling me like you should Rebrand to to bitcoin Jack and um it Became a little bit of a joke during That visit and then one day I think just Before I left I decided that it that Would be fun I changed my handle into Into BTC Jack Sparrow and later on that Became like Bitcoin Jack because saying Bitcoin Jack Sparrow all the time was Just too long but Jack became too short So it ended up being Bitcoin Jack that's Kind of the story so we would just have A lot of fun and drink and um walk funny That's pretty good so Do you have a favorite of the movies Have you seen them I've seen them all I Don't know if I'll have a favorite like The first three are good like the There's a fourth right or even a fifth Not even sure whether I've seen those But like the first two I like them Better than than the last one I have to Admit I've only seen the first one and Then I tried watching the second one and I was just

Like so um maybe I should revisit that At some point yeah first one you know It's generally just very funny and then The second and the third you know it's More of the same I guess so it just Dudes The Experience so typically I aim To break things up into three segments The first is called finding the bottom Where I ask your opinions on you know Where you think the market might be in Terms of a a bare Market bottom for Bitcoin so what do you think of Bitcoin's price now let's just start With that um it's a lot cheaper than it Was a year ago and um for me when I look At markets I try to think more about When than where where would be your Price so where do I want to buy and then You have When when I look at when I'm trying to Figure out what's going on what I want To see in the market to happen before I Kind of think that the list of risks Dissipate out of the market enough and Uh when you know when I when I look at The market right now there's I have this List of of all the parties involved all The stakeholders all the companies that Work in crypto the the global economics Um situation the geopolitics all these Things come together I create this list Or you can do this for yourself based on On on you know what what you're looking At in the market but when I look at the

Market I see we had Luna which was a Function of deteriorating liquidity in The market because of global tightening Of um monetary policy and after that we' Seen the Contagion go into all all Corners of of the crypto market and then We had FTX uh then we had like 3ac Celsius Voyager the list goes on and Eventually we got to the point where we Had FTX exploit and now we get to the Point where we're worried about digital Currency group and um we see problems With silvergate you know silvergate is Implicated in in the FTX fraud story Implicated in a sense that there's Several class C lawsuits going on that Say or implicate That silvergate was was part of the Fraud that they knew what was going on And facilitated it the list is you know Goes on because it doesn't stop there And with all these class action lawsuits We're going to discover what silvergate Was doing whether there're solvent Whether there was more more fraud going On which is I think reasonable a Reasonable assumption if there's proof That they were in on the FTX scam There's a reasonable assumption that There might be more shady stuff going on At silvergate and silvergate is at the Center of liquidity for a lot of Exchanges a lot of exchanges use Silvergate as a as a crypto bank they

Deposit stuff there uh silvergate can Custody for these exchanges and Silvergate has the silvergate exchange Network which is a 247 Network for these crypto Banks too Kind of transact with each other you Know you want to get usdc Usdt bu USD paxel all that kind of stuff You want to like um send that around 24/7 without having to actually wait for Bank hours that's what silvergate is for So when you look at the entire list of Those things for yourself you know you Have to make your own list but my list Has not been finished off there's too Many items on the list we have for Example people don't agree with me here But We have Michael sailor who has taken Lines from silvergate so he's also part Of the equation at some point most Likely and um we're just discovering More and more and more stuff and when I'm talking about going back to the Story about when uh instead of where I Don't know where price will end up when All these things are solved but what I Do know is that with jump and um Winter Mutar Market Mak and they're exiting These exchanges because they want to Reduce their exposure after what Happened with FTX you have silvergate Potentially in problems you have Alam a Bunch of other funds who are exiting the

Space so the liquidity is drying up and That means that markets become very Fragile so the wi is more important in My opinion than the wear and if that Means that price goes to for example $112,000 and then goes back to 20,000 And it's going to you know the the risks Dissipate at $20,000 uh I know for sure that all These issues are solved I'd much rather Buy Bitcoin at uh $20,000 than at $10,000 if there's a risk that it goes From $10,000 to 5,000 if that kind of Makes sense yeah that that does make Sense so can you basically explain why It would be more attractive for you to Buy when Bitcoin goes past 20 versus at 10 I mean ideally I I do buy at 10 if I Know that there is a reasonable Opportunity at 10 and that those risks That I was talking about that I can Somehow prove they're no longer a risk And ideally the market still thinks it's A risk so people remains Sellers and I'm A buyer but in the situation where that Doesn't happen and I don't have enough Confirmation that the issues and the Problems are gone to build a long-term Investment bag I would would rather wait Until I know for sure these risks are Gone because at that point I'm much more Inclined to rely on technical analysis To find entries which I can then scale Up and actually size up get more size

Into the trade presumably generally a Kind of bit less risk so if i' buy At 10 I'd be a lot more more cautious in In how much I buy versus if I buy at 20 um after a retrace from for for Example from let's say price goes to 25,000 after it visited 10,000 and then It retraces to 20 and I have reason to Believe that 20 level is a good level With a lot of interest from buyers and I Know the downside risks that we you know That I mentioned earlier are gone I'd Probably be able to find an entry with a Very tight stop loss so I would be able To lever up my position toine where I'm Wrong and then if it goes to 30,000 I Probably carry a lot more size into that Trade than I would have had at 10,000 if I didn't have the proof that these risks Of liquidations or failing companies etc Etc was not gone yet so for me it's About when I want to get in trades I Want to be like 80% sure my trade's Going to work out and if if that's the Case I can put a lot more size behind it And then the returns are a lot higher so Then it doesn't really matter whether it Was at 10 or 20 I just need my data to Confirm that it's a good tradeit gotcha Yeah that makes sense so this kind of Ties along with that I was wondering What do you think the biggest thing Impacting bitcoin's price is lately and I know you kind of touched on that a

Little bit it all starts With liquidity markets Thrive or drive On liquidity when money is exiting the Market because it's required elsewhere Prices are going to deflate and the cost Of money has gone up significantly this Year we went from zero interest rates to At the moment almost 5% which means that everyone who's on Debt is going to have to service those Costs and um any excess profit or Liquidity they had is no longer flowing Into new Investments so the the flow of Money Has changed direction from you know Where we were investing in everything That you know kind of Moved into a situation where people are Playing defense you know that's one Thing and it's causing all these kind of Troubles for within the market where you Know everything is entangled so Bitcoin Is selling off because 3ac is blowing up Or luna is blowing up because they had It in their reserve and other funds are Blowing up so they they become Force Sellers aside from the fact that you can Go with your dollars and put them into An interest bearing account um money Market funds and receive four 5% when You know the entire world economy is in In chambles you know money is just Flowing out of the space and that puts Everyone who's on Leverage or some kind

Of trouble under more pressure which Creates these liquidation Cascades and Bankruptcies and insolvencies which Triggers the next wave of people who are Swimming naked or in trouble and now We'll just continue going until most of That risk is gone all the you know the Federal Reserve decides to Completely pivot away from tightening And start adding liquidity to the Markets again yeah that's really Interesting and there's a there's Definitely a lot going on and a lot to Think about so I want to head into the Next segment which is Trade Secrets and If you just want to tell me as much as As much as you're comfortable with just Sharing about kind of your background And kind of what maybe what you wanted To do when you grew up when you were Little and kind of how that led into you Getting into trading in in Crypto I honestly don't remember what I Wanted to do as a kid it's been a few Things um as a small kid I think I I Wanted to become a wetman analyze the Weather and Uh uh forecast the Weather it's been I think I wanted to do That until the age of 10 and then Somehow I think it turned into um Architecture I don't know why but I Thought being an engineer would be cool Build things design things so then I

Went to uh high school and kind of lost Track of of that wish as I actually Started getting addicted to gaming Online games and most of it was um Massive multiplayer RPGs and um that kind of put me on a Track eventually to to start learn how To how to program because the games I Was playing some of them they would go Offline or they would change a lot in in The way uh they were working so I I Ended up creating private service for These games um using like you know the Game CLI from a period Of in time where that game was actually Still enjoyable where they didn't bring Updates that were shitty um that kind of Changed the game and so basically Creating the these private servers meant That we would use that we would take the Game client so the application that runs On your computer that displays the game Um that connects to a server which feeds It with the animations and and all the Other stuff that you're interacting with On your screen and we would build that Server ourselves so I actually you know Bring back the the game mechanics of That game it had like a year ago or two Years ago and and rebuild it I I learned A lot about programming and reverse Engineering that period of time because All these you know game clients they Were kind of well not encrypted but you

Call that alisation which are techniques To kind of hide the real code that they Use to compile the the the game client And then we would have to like figure Out how that game client worked and Figure out the protocols they ESC being Kinds were're using to um communicate With um with the server and and identify Which kind of data and what format had To be sent back and forth to you know Make the game playable and and rebuild Actually recreate the game the way we Saw fit so that was a a very interesting Period of time So I ended up studying computer science Because it just made the most sense I Was programming I think for 5 years Before I I started studying mhm that Part of you know um doing computer Science was was was easy cuz I didn't Have to like get up to speed on on the Programming part and then you had all These Theoretical courses most of them were Very interesting I really like them like Logic and stuff that you know that's It's just useful way of thinking for Sure and then I don't know I ended up um Doing a whole different thing I I I did A bunch of things with uh innovating Stuff around agriculture before I ended Up with um you know studying Bitcoin Back in what is it 2016 2017 it's a long story but um that's how

I got into crypto and you know so the The first things I started doing when When I was analyzing how markets work And trying to understand what's you know What's what I was building these small Little scripts to you know see see if if I could automate these things and I Ended up like most of my trading back in 2020 2019 2020 was um was completely Automated and nowadays it's a little Less but I use a lot of my algorithms to Kind of guide me on on bias interesting And that kind of sounds like some of Those things might line up with like Charts and stuff uh like architecture And stuff like that and um it just and Engineering it seems like some of that Might logically line up with trading and Kind of having a brain for those types Of things trading is such a weird thing You can approach trading from a very Technical point of view where you Absolutely don't look at anything that's Going on in the world or you can Approach trading where on a macro zoomed Out skill you you're just constantly Busy with trying to figure out what's Going on in the world and be ahead of Narratives by simply understanding all The moving parts that make up the world In fact and figure out what people want To do in the future before they know They want to do it because something Else is going to happen in the world

Which they don't see coming yet and You're Anticipating such events uh you're Trying to to forecast them and you have This list of things that you want to see Confirm to increase the likelihood of of Something happening in the future you Know that's something that's really hard To um to put into an algorithm that's You know that's just logical thinking But you know it is very much very Technical um but it's also very Philosophical and you know Psy Psychological in a way so I I'd say that Trading uh also depending when your Approach is it's it's a very interesting And diverse way of actually looking at The world so the Brer your understanding Is of what's going on in the world or Subjects like engineering or Architecture you know I don't think Architecture really has something to do With trading but the way of thinking may Actually be very useful yeah and it it Lines on charts and drawing up building Plans right kind of that's what uh I Don't know like in the end I didn't do Anything architecture related so here I Am though is trading stressful for you Or has it ever been let's dive into a Little bit of psychology here absolutely Less and less I'd Say but Um yeah uh it it depends from time to

Time I do have periods where I'm I'm Trading much more actively like in 2020 2021 there there's been moments where I'd oversize for Example and then Market I wasn't sure What the market was going to do but I Was too afraid of not having exposure For example and in those kind of Situations the I wouldn't Say that was it was completely gambling But there were moments where it was Would probably have benefited me to to Downsize and rest up and figure out a Proper trade or proper exposure or you Know resize things and um it it's Becoming less stressful for me and I Mean especially this year has been not So stressful it's really been just play With the trend go with the trend traded Trend I haven't been sizing extremely You know I just been adding adding to to My Trend trade to the Downside and there's been these periods Where the market doesn't hasn't moved Yet a lot so I haven't I haven't been Taking like day trades much um just Mostly trading the trend and and trying And spend my time on figuring out the Narrative going into um going into the End of the year next year see what's Going on in the world so it it really Depends but yeah trading can be Stressful because you're you know you Might lose a ton a ton of money which

You know is Fun right how would you describe your Trading strategy are you mostly Technical analysis based it sounds like You take news factors into account do You want to just walk me through as much Of that as you're willing to go into It's changed over time I learned the Same Basics that most people learned Moving averages patterns that kind of Stuff and then I started developing my Algorithms which would at some point I I Would just trade that manually And then I built I built my bot which Initi initially I launched on on bitmax That was a lot of fun trying to find the Same Cloud cluster and and hosted like In the same like literally next you know Trying to find the machine in the Cluster that I was you know just next to To bitm servers and um get like a nanc Um or like microsc um I know like sub Millisecond ping and that kind of stuff And a lot of these algorithms they Worked they worked out like beautifully In um 2019 2020 but Market changed and Um I I discovered that a lot of these Algorithms they have specific moments Where they really perform well and then There's periods where they wouldn't Perform well so I ended up changing the Strategies in a way where I'd run Multiple strategies over multiple Different time frames with a rebalance

Strategy on Top and uh that kind of worked um until Right now like liquidity is is is is Just a sham and and and and Market you Know certain Market parti participants Have left so I kind of decided to to Turn off I was kind of losing money on It in the last time that it was on and Um really want to like revisit and Rebuild and rethink a few things there Maybe now is a really good time to do That but I also feel that I'm you know After last year I'm kind of feel tired And this year the the main focus has Been I mean it's always been my focus to Try and figure on figure out what's Going on in the world and and um figure Out what's going on in crypto and Understand and do research into how all These different exchanges work and how They're funded and and how they Communicate and how they interact and And transact and all all the kind of Stuff so basically get an information Edge over other people to uh understand Implications of certain events happening Um whether they're good or bad so I Think a lot of you know a lot of my Strategy over time has become more and More trying to figure out what's going On um that where the things that Nobody's talking about and trying to be Able to rationalize things about to Happen that are good or bad for example

The you know early in the year uh I Think it was April or May pointed out The Luna you know the potential issue of Luna and um the potential problems with The tightening of macroeconomics and That kind of stuff and what that could Mean so I was trying I was trying to Paint this picture uh the Tweet is still Online I think where I just make a Little summary of all the all the Different participants in in this market And where their risk would be at like How they could become risky or how they Were already risky and how everything Could drive all these participants to More risk and it's that kind of thinking That is more and more part of of how I Approach markets so trying to figure Out uh what's going to happen not Tomorrow not not now but what's going to You know what might happen in 3 to six Months and and figure out the narrative And um the things that I want to see to Confirm a higher higher chance of that Narrative actually occurring and just Constantly monitor these things and Based on that create trade IDs on a very Slow basis but make these they're Usually very large stretched trades that You know go on for two months three Months sometimes half a year in the case Of you know cryptos demise it's almost Been a year Now so it seems like you do a lot of

Work with trading Bots and stuff like That do you try and bake in news Items or news headlines into your Bots Or is it mostly technical analysis based It's mostly just the I think the next Thing I want to get into is sentiment Analysis I think there is reasonable a Reasonable Edge there but yeah in in General it's just data so M price data Data derived from the chain Volumes um funding a bunch of you know Basically everything then you can get Your hands on and and and and and you Know start testing against um Against Time and um evence and at first you just Throw a lot of [ __ ] on a wall and and Then later on it crystallizes into um Into something that's useful or not and A lot of these algorithms they're you Know they're just me hacking away the Entire day until I find something useful And then I need to kind of try and Actually prove that it's useful or Understand Why it's useful so try to rationalize You know rather rather than Brute Force The solution and then you end up with Some interesting results but it's like I Said like the C the creativity part or Understanding like narratives and and News flow ahead of time is I don't I Don't know if that's possible to do to Build buts for that maybe this but I Wouldn't known how right it's been a lot

Of trial and error for you is that how Basically you found your Edge I think Life Is trial and error and a lot of People go through life by looking at What others do and you know monkey see Monkey do one of my beliefs in life is That if you're going to be monkey see Monkey do your entire life you're not Going to end up with something that's Different than what other people have so You know we learned most by by trial and Error and we kind of lose our way in That we pretty much do what we're told And then we just follow a path that Other people already have walked and and Suggest I don't think a lot of people Stop and ask ask themselves what do I Want in life and then uh when they Figure out they need to do some things Different or take risks in life a lot of These people say okay well that's too Risky and they you know it's fine to Live in mediocrity but if you really Want to spice things up it's probably Not the best strategy just do whatever Any one else is doing so yeah in a sense Trial and error is yeah really part of It yeah yeah it sounds like it sounds Like that's been a big part of Everything for you but sounds like it's Working out pretty well for you so uh Last thing on this segment what was the Hardest part about learning to trade for You and you I think you touched on this

A little bit but the whole balance thing Has been pretty wicked being able to Balance out life versus SO trading and And learning and and digesting and all This information trying to understand How traditional Finance Works trying to Understand how crypto works there's just So many different pieces and parts of The puzzle that may or may not help you Into becoming a better Trader or having Better actionable Intel so it kind of consumes you to a Level where I think think For maybe 3 years in total maybe four Years where you know I wouldn't be doing A lot of other things so I think that's One of the hardest parts um for me is is Finding the the work life balance and Being able To leave the computer leave my Positions close my positions and go do Something healthy I love going outside I Love surfing I love Now there's you know it's been freezing Really hard last week so you know I love Going to ice skate and I'm really happy This year I've done it you know U there Was ice and and and I went straight away For four days I've been on the ice Haven't looked much at the charts but I Think three years ago I wouldn't have Done that I would have probably stayed At home um monitor my positions manage My positions um and and and and work

Just work too much M and it's been you Know that also has the reward of where I'm at right now but at the same time I Do think it cost me a lot and then the Other part that's really I think just Generally hard is because it's something That you know can consume you so so much So deeply it's really hard to go to to Friends or to a party and then trying to You know refigure out what normal people Talk about I think this is probably a problem most Of us having in crypto because we're Just so deeply into it probably I don't Know yeah so there's all these things I I consume knowledge about they are Pretty interesting but it's not it's not Stuff that normal people like to talk About they don't like to talk about wars They don't like to talk about pandemics They don't like to talk about what the Down Jones has done last week or you Know what kind of lawsuit is being slung Onto onto this exactly That's going to bankrupt his company all That kind of stuff is you know it's not Interesting for them and you know after Me putting all that kind of information Into my head for a you know a for a Straight week you know basically from 800 in the morning to 12 at night the Full day I'm just standing there and I Have you know what have you done last Week they ask me and I'm like yeah well

I can tell you but you're not interested In that and so sometimes there's those Weeks where you just don't do anything Exciting I mean I find it exciting but Like normal people don't find it Exciting that much and then you know I Just have no fuel for any decent Conversation that goes beyond hey how You doing yeah I guess that's the price You pay and at some point you know I I Intend to walk away from all of this Pretty soon or at least you know do it Differently spend the money and the time That I've spent pretty much B the time I I've been able to buy by investing um my Time in the last couple of years at some Point I want to pay myself back and take A step back interesting yeah I kind of Have felt that too where I I like Talking about stuff that other people Don't find uh normally interesting so I Get you there so I want to move into the Last segment here and it's called the Next Bull Run and my question is if Because nothing is a sure thing if Crypto has another Bull Run what will You personally look for it to tell you That you think the market has changed Directions on a macro level so just Changed from bull to bear bear to bull Market it's a big Question I'd say the list my list which You know I haven't completely shared on Here but things like I mentioned like

Silvergate genesis Gemini digital Currency growth We could add I don't know maybe things Like binance solvency they're probably Solvent but maybe something else happens In in the market that kind of puts that At risk there is all these risks and I Think the the main confirmation for me That we're actually able to have a bull Market again would be a solution to the A problems the parties I just mentioned Are facing another possibility would Just be A 2020 March 2020 style capitulation where We can literally see in the chain and And on the exchanges that that the open Interest and the coins are actually Changing hands on such a massive scale And are being Absorbed where it's just very likely That everyone who was at risk has been Flushed out of the system so that's you Know that's a second thing that Could Happen um the third thing um is Simply time so if the market decides to Go sideways for a very long time and be Very boring and then starts to coil up That would also be you know a trigger Which is a lot more difficult than the Previous two things I mentioned because You never know how long it's still going To go Sideways and I think that's most of it

Okay the other thing that could happen Is something in terms of global monetary Policy um my understanding or my Assumption is that Global monetary Policy will be will be will will remain Tied unless something tragically breaks Could be credit markets something else But something you know tragically breaks And around the world the central banks Decide okay well we cannot let this Happen we need to kind of fix it because The consequences of not fixing it are a Lot worse than you know the problems That we'll have from adding so much more Money to the system at which point we're Probably pretty sure that inflation is Going to Skyrocket again and this time It will be inflation actually directly At the same time caused by adding Liquidity liquidity to the system actual You know monetary de pacing and at that Point you know I'm just I I would Blindly start buying hard assets like Like Bitcoin like gold uh simply because You know they're going to print my Dollars and Euros to Um what worth being less to not use a Dirty word but um I think those are a Few a few things that I I be looking at Interesting so what will you personally Do to try and figure out the timeline of The next bull market and kind Of let yourself Know hey this is what I think the

Timeline of this will be and and how you Will plan accordingly does that make Sense I think these things are very hard To predict I think you like I just Mentioned I am trying to um to find Multiple scenarios of plausibilities and And and these are very fague and wide And as more information comes you get I Get the opportunity To start filling in the blanks and with A little bit of luck filling in the Blanks kind of creates this better Understanding and you see it or not the One possibility is that we have you know We've already been crashing really quite Hard in in in the entire world different Markets but let's say we go And liquidate sailor for some you know Something catastrophic happens tomorrow And S&P 500 crashes binance is insolvent And um you know I don't know somehow we End up liquidating sailor he's like the Biggest one of the biggest players In that would be last to sell right so That that would be that would be if that Happens unlikely as it as it is if That's if that were to happen that's a Point when time where I I i' buy simply Because I don't know who'd be left to Sell at that point but it it's very Possible I think it has the highest the Highest chance of just going sideways Half year a year into next year we're Looking at these you know the future the

Future curve of interest rates and if Nothing breaks in the financial system Then it's just going to become a very Boring range for a very long time and That will be the accumulation if they Break something things could speed up And you know maybe we'll in my opinion I Think there's a good chance that things Bottom out by May 27 uh 2023 um in Legacy markets and I would Expect Bitcoin to bottom out at the same Time or before um it's just wild Guessing based on some Clues so it's Hard to say but it might you know like You're asking me about how am I going to Approach the bull market and I think the Better question at this point is you Know not how are you going to maximize The bull market but am I going to Maximize the bare Market if the bare Market can continue for a little longer And I can manage to actually sit it out And um you know at least get my Investments back at you know very diry Prices I think that's more important to Me at this point than figuring out what I'm going to do next bull market because Maybe I'm not going to be you know maybe I'm not going to be there in the next Bull market gotcha that makes sense so You're you're just thinking thinking More near term and uh thinking about Tomorrow versus next year sounds like MH So I think that pretty much wraps it up

For today thank you so much Jack for Coming on the show yeah thank you thanks For tuning in to crypto trading secrets With BJ pyrus we'll see you next Time A

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