BITCOIN HODLERS – The Biggest Fed Meeting in History Happening NOW! (Be Prepared)

Yeah so the fed's in an interesting spot Right now because the whole idea is that They're going to hike until something Breaks right that's been the the story Of 2022 and you know my general Expectations have just been that the the Terminal rate is is going to be around Five percent I've said I think they're Going to make it to at least five Percent to continue to hike uh too much Further is is likely going to put too Much pressure on the economy and and Could easily start to break more things So you know my general expectation let Me just share my screen really quick Today I sit down with Quant analyst Benjamin Cowan and we discuss possibly The biggest Federal Reserve meeting Happening today and tomorrow with Results coming in on the 22nd now we'll Take you through some charts we'll talk About Bitcoin specifically but first With the current federal funds interest Rate right now between 4.5 and 4.75 will The FED raise interest rates again and What is the market predicting is the Most likely increase uh currently the Market is suggesting a 77 chance of a 25 Basis point rate hike but what's more Interesting to me there's a couple Different things that I think we should Look at and that's actually what does The market expect going forward beyond The next rate hike or the next two rate

Hikes if they if they want to do a Couple more rate hikes and what's Interesting is that the market is Suggesting that the fed's going to cut Rates as early as June which goes very Much against what what Jerome Powell has Told us and that they're likely not Going to be cutting rates this year I Think if they do cut rates this year It's probably going to be at the end of The year or let's just say early 2024 Which would be kind of nice because it Would correspond to the Bitcoin having And hopefully we can just you know see Everything the stars align once again But What this I think should tell us is that The Pat the market does not believe the Federal Reserve right now and the reason Is because of of what recently happened With the banks and and the FED having to Backstop you know all these deposits to Make sure there's not a run of the banks But What happens though if Powell comes out On Friday or on on Wednesday and says We're gonna go higher for longer again You know what happens then and and I Think there there could be some Consequences of that of of the market Than having to re-price in higher for Longer for like the fifth time because We keep getting to this point where the Market believes Powell and then they

Don't and finally before we go over the Bitcoin charts what is the most likely Scenario tomorrow why is Jerome Powell Stuck right now between a rock and a Hard place raising probably just 25. I Know there's been some speculation as a 50 basis point rate hike I don't think They're going to go 50. I I think that It's it's too much for the market to Handle and I think they they probably Know that Um but I also think going zero would Send the wrong message is is is my my Concern I think going with zero would Send the wrong message especially with Pow at the last um at his Congressional Testimony last week saying that they Might even increase the pace of rate Hike so to go from saying they might Increase it to then doing zero might be Two but two too much of a move so I Think they're likely going to go with 25 And then the question becomes how many More times will they do it right is it Going to be another one and another one Is that just going to keep going on And how long will that go on for and Then ultimately how long will they keep Rate hikes or or the FED funds rate at That level so that's really what I'm Looking at this week and I think the Other thing that we need to look at at The FED meeting is is the actual which Is probably something that doesn't get

Talked about nearly as enough nearly Enough is the is the the actual Quantitative tightening part of what They're doing and that's rolling off Assets from the balance sheet Um you know not just letting the Bonds Mature not renewing and and so far you Know they've been doing less than a Billion per month for quite a long Period of time or around those levels But what happened last week they raised Their the balance sheet went up by 300 Billion uh thanks to thanks to having to Come to the rescue of the bank so I Wouldn't be surprised my expectation is A 25 basis point rate hike with a with a Hawkish tone to try to talk the markets Down from assuming it's an outright Pivot I I think that's what we're likely Looking at and potentially one way to Send that message message would be to Increase the rate of QT which is not the Interest rate right not not increasing The interest rate but above 25 basis Points but potentially increasing the Rate of Um the quantitative tightening side of Things and and actually rolling off at More assets from their balance sheet Than they previously were and based on All of this today historically how is This affected Bitcoin yeah well it's Interesting because you know last last Cycle Bitcoin actually popped off when

The FED reached the terminal rate so if You were to go look at United States Interest rates and just sort of overlay It over the price of Bitcoin I'm sure You distinctly remember December 2018 Uh you know with the probably the 10th Time that Bitcoin had died and what's Interesting is that That corresponded to the bottom of Bitcoin right when they when they when The FED reached the terminal rate is When it corresponded to the bottom but What's more interesting is if you Remember that rally in 2019 the rate Cuts corresponded to bitcoin calling Back down Um which I think a lot of people assume That a rate cut is always immediately Positive thing it's it's it's a positive Thing like you know six to 12 months out Right but it's not an immediately Positive thing right when it happens Typically Um but that's something that I think is Worthwhile the reason why this cycle I Think you could argue that this cycle is Is Um playing out in a in a different Manner here you can see that Bitcoin at Least reached this bottom on in November So what there's two arguments here it Means either Bitcoin hasn't bottomed or It's playing out in a completely Different way

Um one one potential way to view this is To treat if you remember when they were Going 75 basis points 75 basis points Right they did it four times in a row When they cut it down to 50 some people Have interpreted that as the pivot and And and and one of the things about the FED is that they've been so far behind The curve so my my expectation is Honestly is that Bitcoin will likely you Know it can continue a bit higher Um from here like that is certainly Possible I mean we always have to leave Potential room for for the upside for Bitcoin I think right now it's between 27 and 28k but I think as we get further On into the into the rate hiking cycle Or at least you know after especially When they get to the point of cutting Rates I I think we're going to come back Come back in and come back down again And and the reason I say that is is not Because I'm anti-bitcoin I'm very Pro Bitcoin and I've been talking about you Know the dominance needs to go higher For a long time because it's much more Valuable I think than a lot of the Altcoins especially given the Uncertainty but I think the issue is That we still have to go through this Phase right of of pausing and cutting And until we get through that phase I Think it would be premature for us to Assume that this is the rally that takes

Bitcoin to new highs so I think what We're going to see is is Bitcoin you Know it's been maybe a little bit of Time back up here come back in the Second half of the year and um and get One more scare maybe in the third Quarter of the year maybe the fourth Quarter at the latest and then and then From there I think we go into the uh Into the next bull market where we could Theoretically see new Highs but I think That's going to be reserved for 2024 2025 time frame and information based on Everything we just discussed how should You and I prepare I think that Everyone's happy right now because of Course the price is going up I think What we're going to see is we're going To see the same thing happen again like We saw in 2015 2019 I think Bitcoin will Come back down later on this year it's Going to scare a lot of people but I I Think it's going to be a fairly normal Thing and it's just going to be the Scare to to sort of get people to Capitulate just before we we get into The next having and just before we get Back into quantitative easing you're Right Bitcoin has never really Experienced interest rates this high but We also know that the fed's not going to Be able to continue to hike forever so Once we get back to quantitative easing Once we get back to lower interest rates

Which I think will come you know by 2024 At the latest I I think that's your your really your Bull case for Bitcoin and not only that I mean just look at what's happened with Banks recently Um that's another bull case I think for Bitcoin so right now my my best Explanation uh for you know for what's Going on with Bitcoin I think and I Think this is reflected in the dominance I think there's a lot of liquidity flow From the altcoin market back to bitcoin I think that's what's going on right now And it's sending Bitcoin higher but the Trick with this is well what happens When you know the altcoin liquidity Dries up and can no longer support that I think that's when Bitcoin comes back Down and um we get that scare we go into 2024 with our uh with our rally caps on Now Ben does admit that the one thing That would change his mind about his Bearish take currently in the markets is If the Fed starts printing again Actively that's the thing that would Make him turn into a bull sooner but Make sure you hit subscribe because I Have one more interview dropping with Ben Cowan just on altcoins his top three Picks Bitcoin dominance how long will Altcoins continue to drain into Bitcoin Dropping very very soon and like always See you tomorrow

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