Bitcoin Halving 2024!! What It Means For YOUR Crypto Portfolio!

The Bitcoin Haring is upon us the Restriction in new BTC Supply combined With the same or more demand has Historically resulted in BTC hitting All-time highs taking the rest of the Crypto Market with it this time around However there are concerns about the Pressure that the harving will put on Bitcoin miners something which could put Pressure on btc's price and would thus Drag down the whole crypto Market that's Why today we're going to tell you Everything you need to know about the Bitcoin harving including what it is how It has historically impacted the crypto Market and what it could do this time Around this is a video you don't want to Miss to understand the Bitcoin harving You need to know a little bit about Bitcoin specifically the difference Between Bitcoin the network and BTC the Asset the Bitcoin Network consists of Blocks of data each block contains BTC Transactions and a reference to the Previous block hence the term Blockchain by contrast BTC is a digital Currency used to reward computers called Miners for collecting pending BTC Transactions putting them into a block And then connecting that block to the Blockchain every time a minor does this It's rewarded with some amount of BTC now this BTC reward comes from two Places places the first place is from

The coinbase transaction AKA The Block Reward as a fun fact this is where the Coinbase exchange gets its name from the Second place rewards come from is minor Tips aka the transaction fee users will Attach a BTC tip to their transactions So they're included in blocks faster as Another fun fact Bitcoin originally Didn't have any transaction fees because Most blocks were empty I.E they didn't Have any transactions as adoption of Bitcoin grew the transactions increased Resulting in people attaching tips to Ensure that their transactions were Included in new blocks keep that in mind For later now whereas transaction fees Are variable the block rewards are fixed At the protocol level in other words the Creation of new BTC is Pre-programmed when the first Bitcoin Block was mined in January 2009 the Block reward was 50 BTC today the block Reward is or rather will be just 3.125 BTC this is because of something Called the Bitcoin harving which cuts The amount of BTC awarded in each block By half every four years the first Haring happened in November 2012 the Second Haring happened in July 2016 and The third Haring happened in May 2020 And the fourth harving is happening well Now in Practical terms this means that The rate at which BTC is being created Is cut in half every 4 years now as

Basic economics dictates a reduction in Supply with the same or more demand Results in an increase in price in this Case a 50% reduction in Supply should Result in btc's price doubling after Each Haring historically though the Increase in btc's price after the Haring Has been much more substantial this is Simply because the demand for BTC has Simultaneously increased to put things Into perspective there were a few dozen BTC holders when Bitcoin began today It's estimated that over 200 million People hold BTC the result is that btc's Price has gone exponential if you Watched our video about BTC versus gold You'll know that BTC has seen a return Of roughly 720,000 X since its first recorded price Of 9 cents in July 2010 as with all assets btc's returns Have diminished in percentage terms over Time but remain impressive so this begs The question of How High BTC will go After the current harving before I give You an answer smash that like button to Give this video a boost And subscribe to The channel and ping that notification Bell so you don't miss out on any crypto Alpha thank you very Much so ma'am where exactly were you on The night of the murder I was right here Detective all night long you got anyone Who can back that up you mean an alibi

Yeah that's for one no I was all on my Lonesome and what exactly were you doing All on your lonesome if you don't mind Me asking well keep it under your hat Detective but I was looking through the Coin Bureau deals page what's a coin Bureau deals page when it's at home it's Only the place where you'll find the Best discounts and Promos in all of Crypto what do you mean I mean trading Fee discounts of up to 60% and sign up Bonuses up to $60,000 on some of the Best exchanges holy smokes they got Discounts on Hardware wallets too by any Chance they sure do detective like you Wouldn't believe well that sure sounds Kind of swell lady but just you give me One good reason why I should believe a Single word you say you don't have to Take my word for a detective take a look At the link down below and see for Yourself she wasn't kidding those deals Really were something else turns out That crypto ain't such a bad place after All you just got to know your way Around now how high BTC will go after The Haring depends on the time frame We're talking about for instance btc's Returns immediately after the harving Have been mixed after the first harving In November 2012 BTC rallied by around 40% specifically from $10 to around $14 I know I know if Only regrets aside after the second

Haring in July 2016 BTC crashed by 40% Specifically from around $770 to around $470 as you can see BTC had rallied Aggressively leading up to the harving Suggesting that it was a sell the news Event in the short term and after the Haring in May 2020 btc's price Rose Roughly 10% specifically from around 8700 to around $9,700 you'll notice that these gains Disappeared one week later but it's Important to remember the circumstances At the time there was a pandemic going On and everything got messed up to put It mildly this brings us to the current Haring which is coincidentally occurring In the context of similar Global Uncertainties all be it not nearly as Dramatic as last time the difference This time around is that more people are Aware of BTC than ever before many have Argued that this means the Bitcoin Harving is priced in and BTC will see Minimal volatility conversely others Have argued that the introduction of the Spot Bitcoin ETFs has created a steady Stream of demand which combined with the Sudden reduction in new Supply would Quickly result in explosive price action Post harving this could very well be the Case but there's one Wild Card the Bitcoin miners obviously Bitcoin miners Want to make money in practice this

Means that the BTC rewards given in each Block must be greater than the costs of Computing and energy required to mine Each block No profits no Mining this is where things get a bit Complicated but also interesting so pay Close attention logically the Consequence of cutting the BTC rewarded In each block in half means that the Profitability of Bitcoin miners will Likewise be cut in half all else being Equal there have been many reports about How major Bitcoin miners will go under After the Haring but the thing is that All Is not equal for starters if btc's price Is sufficiently high then most Bitcoin Miners could still be profitable even After the harving depending on your Source the cost of mining one BTC after The harving could be as high as $100,000 chances are that BTC won't be 100K by the time this video is posted But consider this a Bitcoin block is Mined every 10 minutes to to ensure that This 10-minute block time is maintained The mining difficulty will automatically Change depending on the total amount of Computing power on the Bitcoin Network The more computing power the harder it Becomes to mine BTC and vice versa so if Lots of Bitcoin miners do go offline After the harving because it becomes

Unprofitable for them to mine BTC this Will reduce the total amount of Computing power on the Bitcoin Network The result will be that the mining Difficulty will decline which will lower The cost of BTC mining uring that more Efficient operations stay online put Differently it should just result in More minor consolidation which could Create other issues in the future more About that in the description now the Bigger question though is how much BTC Bankrupt Bitcoin miners will sell it's Hard to say since most mining operations Are private but we do have a similar Precedent after ethereum's transition From proof of work to proof of stake in September 2022 miners sold tens of Millions of dollars of eth while these Eth sales by ethereum miners seem to Have suppressed the price of eth they Didn't cause eth to crash as such it's Safe to assume that we could see a Similar effect for BTC after its harving Any miners that go under will sell their BTC but it may only temporarily offset The buying from the ETFs also keep in Mind that Bitcoin transaction fees have Been hitting record highs lately this is Because of new Innovations on bitcoin Such as ordinal nfts and brc2 tokens Which we covered in another video If BTC Fees stay high or continue to rise this Will lower the risk of BTC being sold by

Distressed miners in some then btc's Price immediately after the harving is Likely to stay roughly where it is and Could see choppy price action because of Bankrupt Bitcoin miners selling their BTC but what about the longer term Effects although it's impossible to Predict the future history once again Offers us some guidance here roughly one Year after the Bitcoin harving in November 2012 BTC hit an all-time high Of over $1,100 specifically in November 23rd This translated to a return of over 100x Between btc's price around the time of The harving and the top of the first Crypto bull market roughly one year and A half after the Bitcoin harving in July 2016 BTC hit an alltime high of almost $20,000 specifically in December 2017 this translated to a return of Roughly 30X between btc's price around The time of the Haring and the top of The second crypto bull market similarly Roughly 1 year and a half after the Bitcoin harving in May 2020 BTC hit an All-time high of almost $70,000 specifically in November 2021 this translated to a return of Roughly 7x between btc's price around The time of the harving and the top of The third crypto bull market this Underscores something I mentioned Earlier and that's that BTC has seen

Diminishing returns over time this Admittedly limited history suggests that Btc's returns have diminished by roughly A factor of three with each cycle this Means that BTC will Top out at around 2.5x relative to its current price the Timing of exactly when this will happen Is where things get tricky that's Because some have argued that the true Top of the third crypto bull market took Place in the spring of 2021 they claim that the November 2021 Rally was artificial and orchestrated by Large players in the crypto industry Namely FTX if this is correct then it Suggests that BTC will hit its top Sometime next spring as there would be Two precedents the 2012 Haring and the 2020 Haring if this is false then it Suggests that BTC will hit its top Sometime next summer or Autumn as there Would again be two precedents 2016 and 2020 the Silver Lining to this Complicated precedent is that it still Provides a range within which the BTC Top could occur specifically between April 2025 and October 2025 this range should be enough to know Roughly when BTC has peaked when you Combine it with the price target of 2.5x From today there's just one caveat and That's that it's possible that the Approval of the spot Bitcoin ETFs has Changed btc's market dynamics many have

Argued that the ETFs have unlocked a Previously untapped source of capital Which could flow into BTC and take its Price much higher than what many have in Mind more importantly it's possible that These ETF flows will limit how much BTC Will crash after the next cycle top is In for context BTC has historically Fallen by over 70% from top to bottom It's possible that this draw down will Be much lower once more experienced Hands start holding more BTC if it's not The ETFs that do it then buying by Central banks could do the trick instead For reference central banks will be Allowed to hold up to 2% of their Balance sheets in crypto starting from The 1st of January 2025 the Central Bank of Switzerland Actually noted in 2022 that it would be Open to buying BTC someday and come to Think of it it's quite possible that a Big BTC buy by a major Central Bank will Be the Catalyst that will Mark the top Of btc's price alternatively it could Mark the beginning of the blowoff top Phase of the crypt bull market cycle the Same way that micro strategy buying BTC In the summer of 2020 did this ties in To how the rest of the crypto Market Could respond to the Bitcoin harving This can be assessed by looking at how BTC dominance changed after the harving For those unfamiliar BTC dominance

Measures how much of the total market Cap of all cryptocurrencies is made up Purely of BTC unfortunately BTC Dominance doesn't go all the way back to The first Bitcoin harving in November 2022 that's likely because altcoins were Only just starting to emerge back then And didn't have a significant share of The total market for what it's worth This is likely irrelevant as crypto Market infrastructure was also nent in Any case what's fascinating is that BTC Dominance fell roughly 4% after the Second Bitcoin harving in July 2016 this suggests that there was some Rotation out of BTC and into altcoins This is fascinating because btc's Strength relative to altcoins didn't Recover even after BTC crashed 40% to Clarify BTC is seen as the safe haven in Crypto so a 40% crash in btc's price Should have resulted in a rise in BTC Dominance as the rest of the crypto Market would have also fallen and fled Into BTC the absence of this Dynamic Could likewise be a consequence of the Crypto Market still being relatively Immature regardless BTC dominance fell Sharply during the 2017 Crypt bull Market specifically by 60% down to Around 40% of the total crypto market Cap naturally this happened near the top Of the 2017 cycle specifically in December

2017 this highlights the levels of Altcoin speculation happening around That time after the third Bitcoin Harving in May 2020 BTC dominance Likewise saw a decline specifically by 14% notably this was a decline of 3x More relative to after the second Harving this likewise suggests that There was an even larger rot out of BTC And into altcoins immediately after the Third harving as in 2017 BTC dominance Fell sharply during the 2021 crypto bull Market specifically by around 35% down To around 40% of the total crypto market Cap unlike in 2017 this happened much Sooner in the cycle specifically in the Spring of 2021 and lasted all the way Until the spring of 2022 this suggests That the rotation into altcoins was more Sustained compared to the 2017 cycle Which makes sense given that most Altcoins arguably didn't have any Meaningful utility until 2021 this admittedly limited history Suggests some very peculiar Dynamics for Altcoin dominance during this cycle Basically it suggests that BTC could see A big drop in dominance of up to 40% After the harving but could see a much Smaller drop in dominance of around 10% As we approach the next cycle top it Also suggests that altcoins could have a Lot more staying power during the next Crypto be Market the initial 40% drop in

BTC dominance sounds crazy until you Remember two things stable coins and the Spot ethereum ETF the market cap of Stable coins will grow a lot as the next Crypto bull market approaches and eths Will run Once spot ethereum ETFs are approved Assuming they are approved of Course and this all relates to how much Altcoins could rally and for how long in Case it wasn't clear enough altcoin Prices are highly correlated to btc's Price altcoins perform the best when Btc's price is trading sideways or Rising gradually as it causes traders to Get bored and start aping into more Speculative cryptos so the way you may Want to look at this then is by using Traditional stock market metrics to Compare altcoin returns to those of Bitcoin more specifically you can view Altcoins as having a certain beta to Bitcoin more volatility relative to BTC As a rule of thumb altcoins with market Caps of more than $1 billion have a beta Of two relative to bitcoin altcoins with Market caps of less than $1 billion have A beta of up to four And altcoins with market caps of less Than $100 million have a beta of roughly Eight compared to bitcoin so if btc's Price goes up by 2.5x between now and The cycle top then some large cap Altcoins should eventually go up by

Around 5x some midcaps should eventually Go up by around 10x and some small caps Should eventually go up by around 20x Again this is a rule of thumb not a Guarantee for all I also need to stress The word eventually these gains won't Come right away nor will they Necessarily happen at the same time for All Altcoins it also goes without saying That it won't be up only there will be Massive Corrections along the way and These will become sharper as we approach The cycle top and if our BTC dominance Predictions play out then it means that Altcoins could spend a lot more time at Or around their all-time highs compared To previous Cycles it could also mean That they will see similar drawdowns Relative to previous Cycles during the Next crypto be Market the catch is that This may only apply to larger more Established altcoins such as ethereum Which will have spot ETFs of their own And could therefore experience the kinds Of Dynamics I mentioned earlier highs That surprise to the upside less Volatility to the downside and Potentially propped up by central banks So if you want to make sure you don't Miss out on these gains then there are Three things you need to do the first is To understand which narratives are Likely to be the biggest during the next

Crypto bull market we did a video about That not long ago which we'll leave down In the Description the second thing you need to Do is make sure that you have accounts On the right crypto exchanges and as it So happens the coin Bureau deals page Has trading fee discounts of up to 60% And sign up bonuses of up to $60,000 on The best crypto exchanges these deals Will help you preserve profits and They're only available for a limited Time so do take advantage of them ASAP Using the link in the description now The third thing you need to remember is What I mentioned a few moments ago and That's that not all altcoins will will Rally at the same time so if you see That some cryptos in a narrative are Starting to Rally hard don't chase them Instead try and find cryptos in that Narrative that haven't rallied yet Similarly if you notice that the cryptos In your portfolio aren't keeping up with The rest of the crypto Market be aware That it could just be because they're Lagging make no mistake there could be Some cases where those cryptos won't Ever rally but if you've done your Research this hopefully shouldn't happen And if you want to supercharge your own Research and join the most knowledgeable Crypto Community out there then become a Member of the coin Bureau Club every

Week we do in-depth reviews of small cap Altcoins that are members voted for Provide daily crypto Market updates Occasional team amas and constant Discussions on our members Discord the Link to that will also be down in the Description And that's all for today's video folks So if you learn something new Smash that Like button to let us know if you want To keep learning be sure to subscribe to The channel and ping that notification Bell if you want to help others learn Then take a second to share this video With them if you think they'd enjoy it Of course as always thank you all so Much for watching and I'll see you next Time this is Guy signing off [Music]

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OUR TAKE

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