Bitcoin: Fear & Greed

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the Cryptoverse today we're going to talk About Bitcoin and we're going to be Providing an update to the fear in greed Index if you guys like the content make Sure you subscribe to the channel give The video a thumbs up and check out the Sale on into the cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse decom the fear and Greed index is a pretty popular metric In the cryptoverse you can track it Actually at this website here I will Link it in the description below but Essentially it shows you it gives you a Gauge of what the fear and GRE index is And you can see today it's at 74 which Is considered greed yesterday it was at 79 extreme greed last week greed last Month neutral at 52 and you can actually Scroll down to the bottom here and see How it changes uh through the years Going all the way back to 2018 and and if you want to get even More information on the fearing Gade Index you can scroll down and see Exactly how they come up with it one of The interesting things about the fear And greed index is it it does really Capture how we swing from one extreme to The other right and and how as The Cycles go on we go from extreme fear to Extreme greed and back and forth and Back and forth and it seems like

Whenever at one extreme it seems like We'll never go back to the Other Extreme And then when we get to that extreme it Seems like we'll never go back to the Other one but history shows that there Is certainly an e and flow to the fear And greed index and you can see really The fearing GRE index has been putting In higher lows really since June of 2022 Right it's been putting in higher lows And higher highs so we talked about the Fear and greed index a few weeks ago we We mentioned this higher low and higher High structure and one of the reasons I'm providing an update on it now is Because we did put in another higher low But more importantly it put in a higher High so it is finally moved into that 79 Level if you look at this you know this Area over here from basically October Through Jan January the highest it went Was around 76 or so so now we've gone to A higher level on the fear and greed Index as Bitcoin has finally broken Above that 50k threshold so one reason I Want to talk about this is to look Historically at the fear and greed index To get an idea of of possible outcomes Right now unfortunately with the fear And greed index it doesn't really go Back that far it only goes back to you Know early 2018 so we can't really look To see what it was doing you know back In 2016 2017 but with the data that we

Have we can see that there have been two Prior Trends here two prior if you look At the 2019 bull market the 2020 late 2020 early 2021 bull market what you'll Notice is that in both of them the fear And greed index went into the '90s right Now again right now we're at 74 Yesterday we hit 79 last two bull markets one led to new Highs one did not both of them fear and Greed index went into the '90s be that As it may one of them stayed in the 90s For a long time one of them did not so If you look closely here 2021 we went Into the 90s in late November and then Stayed in the in the 90s for a long time We even dipped back down some when we Had these sell-offs but I mean we stayed Back up right in the '90s for several Months and then ultimately we finally Came back down to Earth where the fear And greed index went back down to like 10 or something um you know in the Summer of 2021 the summer lull which you Know was pretty I mean it was it was Highly anticipated right that summer we Would go down and and sort of cool off For a while and we did but you can see That you know had you sold all of your Bitcoin the first time it hit 90 you Would have you know the fing 90 you Would have sold at at 16k now of course Back then when you're watching the price Go up it's easy you know it's easy to

Look at it now and say that was a a Silly decision right when you look at it When it hit 90 you have to imagine a lot Of people that just saw the price at at AT3 $3,800 you know just a half year before Or so we're probably quite you know Really relatively ecstatic to see it up At 18K right and you're talking about a You know 4 and a2x move in less than a Year by Bitcoin and that was one of the Reasons why the F GRE index was in the 90s but it stayed there for a while as Bitcoin continued to climb this was also During you know low interest rates Quantitative easing we have another Example over here 2019 where the fear And greed index was putting in sort of Like marginally higher highs right I Mean it went up to 69 and then it went Up to 71 and then it went up to 77 or 78 And then ultimately it topped out at 95 Now in this case had you sold some Bitcoin when it went into the '90s it it Would have worked out quite well right I Mean there you would have been no way of Knowing that that that that was actually The top right when it went to the fear GRE index of 95 and you know Unfortunately if if when you saw it go To 95 back over here in 2021 if You' use That as a reason to you know completely Exit your position you would have missed Out on on a a continued move by Bitcoin

But I mean I do think each of these bull Markets uh whether it was a 20 late 2020 Early 21 bull market or the 2019 bull Market which did not lead to a new high In in both in both cases we saw the Fearing Reed index go into the '90s and In one case we put a new all-time high In the other case we did not one was During a period of lower rates in QE 2020 2021 and then the 2019 one was During a period of QT and higher Interest rates okay so I mean again you Can compare either one uh if you want to But I still think that in terms of in Terms of like Market structure market Dynamics what was going on at the Time 2019 to me still seems like you Know a candidate you know one to to pay Attention to um and that's not to say it Has to play out in the exact same way But if you look at at certain Trends in The crypto verse you know now compared To to back then it certainly seems like Like it's a similar type of move and We've talked a lot about that um you Know one of which is just looking at at Interest rates and and seeing like you Know this move over here was during a Period of rising rates and then holding Steady right that's when it that's when It occurred similar thing over here Right Rising rates and then holding Steady this move over here was during a Period of lower rates and holding steady

Right so two completely different types Of of of bull markets right one during QT 2019 and then one during QE late 2020 Early 2021 two very different types Additionally in one of these in one of These bull markets eth Bitcoin was Leading the charge so like the eth Bitcoin valuation was going up and in One of them the eth Bitcoin valuation Was going down and I mean if you've Watched this Channel at all I'm sure you Are aware of which is which but um you Can see that in in in the QT bll Market E Bitcoin was going down in the QE bull Market eth Bitcoin was going up right Here we have a Q it's QT right we've been in a qt bable Market but e Bitcoin has been going down So again that's that's some of the Reasons why I I prefer to compare it to 2019 is because Bitcoin is really Leading the charge here right I mean Over here during this major move Altcoins are really taking off and and I Know a lot of people are are constantly Promising you guys alt season and Whatnot and and they're calling for the Bitcoin dominance to collapse but that's Really not what happened in 2019 I think A lot of people are are just blindly Looking at what happened in 2021 to sort Of forecast what will happen you know to The altcoin market in

2024 but remember in 2021 Bitcoin it was zering lower rates in QE And also also Bitcoin was setting new Highs now if Bitcoin sets new highs that Could potentially change the um change The dynamic but until that happens I I I Still think that at least in the phase Of the cycle we're in right now it it It's sort of like this Bitcoin dominance Up Cycle um Bitcoin dominance up Market and so when you look at the fear And greed index and we try to identify Is it more like this one or is it more Like this one I would lean towards Saying it's more like 2019 however There's a caveat to that and the caveat Is that we don't have the fear and greed Index for 2015 2016 2017 right and you Know there's been a lot of people that Have and again I'm not I'm not saying It's not evaluated look at the market Right there's a lot of people that are Comparing you know this Market over here To this one over Here if it's if if we want to continue To make that comparison though I mean You can see that this one over here Actually had pullbacks where it retested Those prior breakout points we haven't Actually had that yet and so that Comparison could be thrown out the Window if if if something like that were

Not to to happen so my guess is that it Will play out in a different way than Both 2021 and 2019 I think by looking at both cases You can Understand how you might want to manage Your risk for instance if we do see the Fear and greed index print in the '90s Which again it hasn't happened yet it's Gone up to 79 if we see it print in the 90s like 2019 did that could be an Important signal to not Ignore on the other hand if it prints in The 90s and then just continues up like 2021 you may be remiss to completely Part with your entire Bitcoin position Um you know in in in such in such a Trend so there's different ways that you Can manage that I mean of course there's We talk about risk management a lot my Sort of my main views for a couple years Now almost two and a half years has been A a Bitcoin heavy crypto portfolio over An altcoin heavy portfolio and the Reason I've I've made Fairly clear is Because I think I mean I think that We're still in a phase where Bitcoin is Absorbing all this liquidity from the Altcoin Market rather than the other way Around right like a lot of people think All this liquidity from Bitcoin is Flowing to alts but I I continue to say I don't think that's true I think Altcoin liquidity is flowing back to

Bitcoin and so a lot of people are still They're still looking at these altcoins And saying well when are they going to Pump against Bitcoin and and then Bitcoin just keeps on on sucking that Liquidity right back very similar to 2019 right very very similar to 2019 and Also very similar to parts of of 2021 I Mean if you look at at this move over Here 2021 late 2020 early 2021 Bitcoin Dominance was also going up but it Wasn't in sort of the same macro Structure that it's been in um you know Basically since this this uptrend began And I that's why I think it makes it it Resembles the 2019 style move over the 2021 stop move if you actually look at How much Bitcoin went up over here I Mean it went up 300 142% we are already up 234 in fact a 340% move which again there are Diminishing volatility from one cycle to Another but 342 per move just to give You an idea of how crazy it was back Then would basically put you at the Prior highs now again you get Diminishing volatility from one cycle to Another like this move here from the Bottom to this high was about 11,000 per Move this one here was um a modest 2,000% move so it's not exactly Comparing the same thing but you get you Certainly get the idea right so I I Think that the fing GRE index is a

Useful metric um I I think that you Cannot take it to the bank in terms of If it prints a 90 does that definitively Mean that it's the top no 2021 shows us That right it shows us that 2019 though Would say hey if it's the '90s you Should you should really consider being Cautious because at that point Point Um that that essentially marked the the High if you look closely though what You'll notice is that in 2019 even if You did not take any profits when it hit 95 Bitcoin still came back down and then Went back up and put in a double top Where the the fearing greed index put in A lower high right so you had a a a Lower high in price and then a lower High on the fear and greed index and Then you had another lower high here in In you know in August of 2019 which was A very different structure from 2020 Late 2020 and 2021 where after basically Hanging out in the extreme greed area For a month we came back down and then Went right back up to it so my guess is That you know you you you can you can Watch the structure of the fear greed Index and see if it if it's continuing To put in higher lows or if it breaks a Low or if it's unable to put in a new High we just put in a new high yesterday Again given where bitcoin price is There's a decent probability that the Fear greed index will continue to climb

And one way to to sort of visualize this Stuff is to take a a a moving average Right let's say like a 30-day EMA and Then by looking at it like this it helps To tune out some of the noise right I Mean here you can see that the the 30 The 30-day EMA of it went into the into The low 70s so far we are at 65 although Over here we went into the about 77 1 so Back in 2019 we it did go a little bit Higher in 2021 we went all the way up Into the '90s for the 30-day EMA of the F green index and I also think it's Worthwhile to view it like this as well Color-coded version right so you can see Where the extreme fear was another Interesting thing is That bitcoin price put in a lower low in November of 2022 compared to June but The fear and green index put in a higher Low so some form of Divergence so maybe That's something to look for right maybe Maybe we get an example where Bitcoin at Some point puts in a you know it puts in A lower high and the fear GRE index puts In a higher High um and it sort of Reverses what it did over here but in The meantime Bitcoin uh I mean it just Went to 52k fear and greed index is at 79 as of yesterday we we'll see where it Comes in uh later today if we look at This you can see the next update is is Going to come in in about 4 hours from At least the time that I'm recording

This video so let's see where it comes In in the '90s it starts to send off um Some some warning warning signals I mean Really I mean in anything in greed or Extreme greed is you know merits some Caution but with Bitcoin I mean you know It can spend a lot of time right in the 60s 70s 80s and 90s if you go into the 90s you know the clock really does start To tick before you know before there is A a a larger pullback right now we're at 74 yesterday was 79 we'll see where Comes in thank you guys for tuning in Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and again Check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at into the Crypto.com I'll see you guys next time Bye

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