Bitcoin: Fear & Greed Index

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the crypto verse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing the fear and greed index If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and also check out the Sale on intothe cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse tocom let's go ahe And jump in so the fear and greed index Is from this website right here we did a Video on it a couple of weeks ago and we Speculated dubiously of course right That we would likely push up into the Extreme greed into the 80s to 90s and I Wanted to do an update because we now Have reached that 80 level and I want to Compare it to Prior moves that we've Seen so if you're not familiar with the Fear and GD index it's of course you Know comes from this website right here Um and they of course break it down over Time as well and you can even read like What goes into it looks like volatility Market momentum and volume social media Surveys Dominance and Trends so that's what goes Into it now if you go look at the fear And greed index it is now at 80 so what We can do is we can we can color code This so now this is the price of Bitcoin Colorcoded by the fear and greed index And what we're going to do is we're Simply going to hide all of them and

We're just going to look at anything Between 80 to 100 okay that's all we're Looking at now unfortunately the fear And green index doesn't go back Beyond You know 2018 right it just starts over Here in early 2018 it would have been Really nice to see what it would have Looked like in in say 2015 2016 and 2017 Of course we do have rist metrics that We can look at that kind of stuff for But it is kind of interesting to follow Along and the reason for that is you can See that there's been a few times in in You know in sort of the history of this Data set where we went into the 82100 range okay and we're going to Break each of those down So the last time we hit these levels was Actually in late 2021 right Coincidentally at around the same price Right I mean Bitcoin was basically the Same price over here that it is now and We also had a fearing grid index in the 80s you can see that it looks like it Went all the way up to about 84 right There 75 and then 84 so basically into The 80s um in in those levels before It Ultimately came back down there's Another example in this bll run here Where had you sold your Bitcoin just Because we hit the 80s um you can see just how much higher Higher that that Bitcoin ultimately went Right I mean you know we actually hit

The 80s in the fear and GRE Index right Over here in sort of August September 2020 uh maybe August 2020 we came back Down we got about a 20% correction we've Had a lot of 20% Corrections over the Last 15 16 months and then ultimately we We went back into the 80s again and Again and again and again and so because Of that this is a this is a metric that As far as I'm concerned you don't want To use it in and of itself To tell you whether you should you know Whether you should buy or sell right Because it can stay in extreme greed and Extreme fear for very long periods of Time in fact if you to look at it where It was between say 0 and 20 I mean it Was between 0 and 20 all throughout here In 2018 and then it still had another 50% drop right and then again if you Look at 80 to 100 it was 80 to 100 Throughout this entire range and Bitcoin Still went up another 3x right so I Don't think we can use it by itself but If you're looking at this and then you Have Confluence among another of you Know a number of other indicators then That could be more useful for instance If you know you have five different Indicators you track and the only one That is showing caution is the fear and Greed index then it could be easier to Dismiss it but if you're tracking five Indicators and they're all flashing

Caution including the fear and green Index then it might be better used for Conflu to say hey it is getting somewhat Froy out there um and and we need to Have a a cool off period so there's that Example right there's the 2020 the late 2021 example and there's also of course The 2019 example right which we've made A lot of comparisons too and you know I've received a lot of questions again You know why compare this to 2019 when It it clearly is is is different this is The the question I often receive and you I've tried to do a good job of answering That question um and I I don't really Think that it it's worthwhile to to Spend too much time talking about it and I will touch on it but the reality is is That every single rally will be slightly Different than ones that came before it And so it would likely be you know not The wisest to assume that any rally has To play out like any prior rally right So we must remember that but the reason I've made the comparison since 2019 so Many times is just simply because of of You know of monetary policy and and Those sorts of comparisons right that That's the reason um and and again if You're new to the channel which I mean There are some new people coming into The space clearly you know just looking At like high high interest rates seeing Bitcoin really rally after the pause I

Mean it's almost identical in fact um From the paws right there Bitcoin sold Off a little bit and then went on a Fairly impressive rally uh same thing Right here here after the pause Bitcoin Sold off a little bit and then has gone On a fairly impressive rally and and we Went on the F GRE index in that rally Yes we made it to the 80 to 90 range we Also made it to the 90 to 100 range okay Now if you isolate the 92100 range you Can see that we've only hit it really a Couple of times in in in the history Right we hit it in this in this rally Over here in 2021 um I mean it was Pretty continuous flashing in that level But we we hit it through that rally and Then we also hit it in this rally over Here now in the same way had you sold All your Bitcoin in November of 2020 Just because the fear and greed index Flash 95 you would have missed out Another 3x move okay in 2019 if you sold Your Bitcoin when it flashed in the 990s And if it would it hit 95 you would have Timed at the top by identically and Again I I there certainly are some Comparisons to be made here right I mean It's not just right it's not just you Know tight it's not just um High Interest rates right it's also it's also Monetary policy right like looking at Total assets um held by the Federal Reserve right if you go look at at at at

Sorry I misspelled it if you go look at Total assets held by Federal Reserve Right also they were sort of reducing The size of the balance sheet in here And and also while while the while the FED funds rate was paused and so that's Why we've made that comparison and so You know I'll keep talking about this Because if we go into the '90s And there's other indicators you're Tracking that are also somewhat Cautionary that might be a you know sort Of a moment to say all right well are we Going to get a larger pullback or will It play out in a different manner um I Think some of the things to keep an eye On are are gold remember in 2019 when Gold broke out um the stock market Continued to do pretty well but but Crypto kind of took a breather for a Little bit so I would keep an eye on Gold as well well but when we think About the fear and GD index and where it Is right now as we talked about right It's been putting in higher lows um Really since June of 20122 also higher Highs this area over here we were kind Of stuck in the 70s for a while um and Now we've made it into the 80s and again What happened over here in 2019 is we we Had this rally into the 80s um right There we basically stayed there for one Week and then we got a pop up into the '90s and and that was where that was

Really where we saw extreme greed com Into the market where you know I mean Everyone was so bullish back then um I We went up you know if you think about The rally we've had over the last like Year and a half that same percentage Move like this same percentage move this Was a 300% rally right that same Percentage move was accomplished over Here even a little bit more than where We are right now but in only 6 months um So imagine what we've had here but you Condense that move down to 6 months and That was why everyone was so bullish Right because we were going up so Quickly and of course we hit that 95 Level in in June right we hit that 95 Level in June and again if you're if You're curious what I what I'm referring To with with gold um let me just quickly Show you um why it it it might be Somewhat relevant is if you were to Overlay gold onto the chart we know that It was it was actually when gold um Broke out right like it was when gold Broke out right here that the fear and Greed index actually hit the 90s right I That was actually when it happened and And we're we're sort of looking at at at Gold uh this doesn't really capture all The Wicks let me let me change this to a Daily time frame um yeah like if you Look at if you look at like the daily Time frame you can see that that gold is

Is starting to to potentially break out Um and and it would be it would be Somewhat I I guess it would rhyme a lot If at the same time that gold is Breaking out you also have the fear and Greed index going into into the 90s Right if that were to happen say in the Next couple of weeks and it would be Somewhat yearly similar right so I would Keep an eye on the fearing grid index And and see if we do push up into the '90s again we've been in the 80s for so We got into the 80s on February 28th Right so we've been you know we were 82 On February 28th 80 February 29th and March 1st and now March 2nd we've been At 80s so we've been about four days in The 80s again back over here once we got Up into the 80s we got up in there June 16th and we were still in the 80s about eight days later and Then nine days later we were still in The 80s and then I guess 10 days later We finally had that push with the fear And greed index into the Mid90s um but again I mean we we know That the the the the rally that took Place in 2019 while it was a 300% rally It took place over a shorter time period Um it it didn't play out in the same in The same exact way but it is something That's interesting now if it were to Play out like this over here then it Would imply staying in the 9s for a

While so I think that will be Interesting to see because you know over Here once we got up into the '90s we Really stayed there for months so if if We do see some type of Spike you know in March or April into the 90s the question Is is it just a one-off print like 2019 during qt or is it more durable Like what we saw back over here in in Late 2020 so that'll be worth keeping an Eye on and I I think that these other Metrics that we've tracked for I think Like you know the FED funds rate um gold Those could all be instrumental in Helping us understand what is the most Likely outcome right but anyways the Other way to look at the fear and greed Index is to take a moving average right Like say like a 30-day SMA and and see That in 2019 the 30-day SMA of the F and Greed index topped out at 76 even though We had a print at 95 right the 30-day SME of it topped out at 76 in 2021 the 30-day SME of it topped out at 92 right So we actually were in the '90s for a Long time for the 30-day SMA to get into The 90s there's also the period in 2017 Sorry 2021 where the 30-day SME got to About 73 we also saw the 30-day SME get To about 77 in August of 2020 and again that was Just before a 20% pullback um and then We saw a rally after that so when you Look at the chart right if you were to

Just sort of draw a line from where we Currently are across the page you can See there's not been that many times Where we've gone too much higher with The 30-day SME of the fear and greed Index right we have gone higher and Certainly the 30-day ese of the fear and GRE index should should go higher Because um you know as as as the fear And GD index continues to say in the 80s It's likely going to just sort of pull That up but you can see if you just sort Of draw a line across the page right Here if I hover hover over it there's Only there's what 1 two three four five You know about five times in history Where we rallied above that level in Four of those times we rallied up into The sort of the high 70s for that 30-day Ese of it and then one time we saw it go All the way up into the 90s the 30-day Ese of the fearing greed index um and so I think that's what you know it's Worthwhile to see just how far this Thing can go because the market has has Been heating up quite a bit right and we Are starting to see some of the froest Stuff start to move some and and and Sometimes when that happens um you know Bitcoin will eventually punish those um That are are are chasing especially Before you especially when you're in the Period of of um Bitcoin not in in in Price Discovery right like when

Bitcoin's not at new highs and it's Still below the prior highs Bitcoin has A habit of of oh sees these other you Know if sees these other altcoins moving Um then it will it will sort of take the Reigns back um after after certain Period of time we've seen that happen Really for the last year and a half with The dominance um but I won't go too much Into that so anyways that's the fear and Greed index you can also apply say like A 30-day EMA to it if you would prefer Or even maybe it'd be worthwhile to Apply a 7-Day EMA to it if you apply a 7-Day EMA to the fear in greent index You can currently see that it's at about 78.5 n um and if you kind of hover that Across the page you can see there's been A few times we've gone above that um one Of the times of course was in 2019 where The 7day EMA of it went up to about 87 Which about you know about nine above The current levels and then over here in 2021 we saw it go all the way up into The upper 80s um and then that other Time in August 2020 that was just a 20% Pullback though right I mean a 20% Pullback um for Bitcoin right just to Give you an idea of what something like That would look like Rick from the highs 20% pullback would would essentially put You at at around 51k um And that would be if it were to emulate You know that one if you were to emulate

2019 and it just keeps continue to spike For a while um then you know then of Course it could be due for for a sort of Different Playbook and also there's There's 2021 but anyways that's Fe and Greed index um hopefully you guys Enjoyed the video and you know I'm I'm Not going to make videos on the fearing GRE index you know every two weeks Forever but as long as you know as long As we continue to sort of climb that um Those sort of those values you can see Over here we were in the 50s and then The we were in the 50s for a wild in the 60s this was in the 70s now we're in the 80s we we in the 70s again and now we've Popped up into the 80s so we are getting Pretty heated and and because it's Getting pretty heated I wanted to Provide another update and and maybe We'll do another update on it in in a Couple of weeks and see if it you know If it's still in the 80s or if it's made That move up into the 90s if you guys Like the content make sure you subscribe To the channel give the video a thumbs Up and again check out the sale on into The cryptoverse premium at intothe Cryptoverse

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