Bitcoin: Fear and Greed Index

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Be discussing the fear and greed index If you guys like the content make sure You subscribe to the channel give the Video a thumbs up and check out the sale On into the cryptoverse premium at Intothe cryptoverse decom let's go ahead And jump in so the fear and greed index Uh comes from this website and I will Link this website down in the Description below if you want to go Check it out um it basically you know Just provid you an update on what the Fear inre index is at at any given time And right now we can see that the fear In greed index is currently coming in Let me reload this page here is Currently coming in at 73 um which is is sort of ticked up here A little bit over the last few days so I Just wanted to look at that in the Context of History to show you know how Useful it has been how how other times It hasn't been as useful and how we can Even make it even more useful I think The fear and greed index is a is a is a Great tool to to understand um you know Just how Fe fearful the market is how Greedy the market is and so on and so Forth um but it it it can have you know Sometimes un unwanted effects if you're Not familiar um with with just how long

We can stay in in greed or extreme greed Or just how long we can stay in fear or Extreme fear if you look at this chart If you look at the raw values you can See that we are at levels now that are Higher than where we were earlier in the Year which also corresponds to a higher Price for Bitcoin than where it has been Earlier in the year for a lot of Altcoins they are you know they're They're still around or below their February or April highs some of them are Well above those April highs Bitcoin is As well above where it was earlier in This year and so too the fear and green Index is at a higher level today than it Was back then currently at 73 now greed And fear again as I said earlier you can Stay in a in fear or Greed for a long Time before you know before sentiment Ultimately reverses Course and so what I wanted to do is Just look at the brief data that we have Here to show where it topped out based On the last two um you know based on the Last two moves where the the fear and Greed index went up into this higher Range after coming from some pretty low Levels so you have two main examples you Have 2019 and then you also have 2020 And 2021 and in 2019 you can see that it It you know it started off all the way Down here at around 9 and it then Eventually topped out at

95 okay so it went from 9 to 95 in the Spam of about six or seven months or So now in 2019 if you saw the fear and greed index At 95 and you sold it would have worked Out incredibly well right if you just Said hey I'm going to sell my Bitcoin Whenever the fear and green index gets To the 90 to 100 level it would have Worked out very well because you know it Was basically at 80 83 87 and then it Went from 87 to 90 95 and then that was The top right so if you had just waited To the 90 to 100 range it would have Worked out very well in 2019 and then you know Bitcoin still Hung around those highs for months but It it you know it still was just lower Highs right it was nothing more than Lower highs and those lower highs lasted For about about nine months or so um Lower highs and lower lows until until We finally got you know the the the Pandemic Black Swan event that finally Sort of reset the entire that class now Let's say you took that same strategy in 2021 and you said all right I'm going to Sell my Bitcoin when the fear and green Index gets to 90 to 100 well had you Done that um it would have meant you Sold your Bitcoin here on November 20th Which is right around the time the Bitcoin hit about 15.62 K so this shows You that it's not always the best tool

In terms of in terms of understanding When price action will reverse course Because after the fear and greed index Hit 90 Bitcoin still went up you know Another 4X or so from that level so it's Not Always perfect it's not always just Because it goes to say extreme fear or Extreme greed it does not mean that Price can't go higher or Price can't go Lower I would Argue that 2019 was sort of a a you know Sort of a a your your preh having year Rally um that that topped out at at a Lower high right at at a lower high as Opposed to an all-time high and you know Back then we we also had an an inverted Yield curve like we had today we had um Actually right when Bitcoin topped here Just after that was right when the FED Started cutting rates in fact right so Bitcoin topped um and then bit uh the FED started cutting rates because you Know because of what was going on in the Economy back then and you can see that Back over there right selling Bitcoin at A fear and green index of you know if You waited until 90 to 100 it would have Worked out great but had you done so in 2021 you would have missed out on Another 4X move so some of the Differences between the 2019 rally and The 2021 rally so 2019 was a prehab year And um you know it it we were not in uh

The same type of easing quantitative Easing that we were in back in back in 2021 right so the FED printed a lot of Money um trillions of dollars in 2020 and and Bitcoin went on a on a very Spectacular bull run the 2019 Bull Run Um while it was impressive and and Bitcoin went up you know 3 to 4X in that Year it still resulted in a lower high And we got the unversioned the yield Curve had to deal with the sort of the Fallout of that over the next you know Nine months or so until until the money Printing returned and then we had enough Juice to go to alltime highs so we look At it today and again the fear and greed Index is at 73 and there's no guarantee As to how high this is going to go I Mean if you if you look over here in in April the fear and greed index topped Out at at 69 and and then price action Became pretty bearish for the next Couple of months or so right the price Just went down but just be aware that if If something like that were to repeat in Like 2019 note that the 90 to 100 level Did in fact um Mark the top unlike what Happened in 2021 now there's a way that You can clean it up uh and that would be To apply like a moving average to it Right you could apply like a 30-day EMA Uh to this thing and and this might be a Little bit more useful because you know An instantaneous data point isn't always

Going to tell you Necessarily um the general you know how The market is is really Moving had you waited until this metric Reached the 90 to 100 phase it would Have it would have allowed you it would Have it would have occurred a little bit Later close to around 24K back in 2020 As opposed to 15K so it would have Gotten you another 10K up before you Necessarily became on alert and normally When you break all-time highs that's When long-term holders become on alert If you look at like the hotle waves uh That's where long-term holders start to Sell is when Bitcoin makes new all-time Highs so then if you look at at 2019 you Can see that the fear and greed index um 30-day EMA topped out at 73 okay it Topped out at 73 in June the 30-day EMA Of the fear greed Index right now is 64 but we also noted that the Instantaneous value of the fear and Greed is 73 so you know if we stay at These levels you know for for a little While that 30-day EMA will start to get Up to you know to where it was back in In 2019 so looking at it colorcoded you You can see it look something like this Um 2019 you know the the the EXT extreme Greed was relatively Shortlived um and then we went back to Extreme fear uh in in q1 of the having Year and then a year after that we were

In extreme greed but that time when we Went back to extreme greed we were there For a lot longer um for months before Before the the rally really started to Falter and then we still went back up And put another all-time high and then We finally came back down so I think That this is a useful tool the fear and Greed index and um and I think it can be It can be useful for understanding you Know where we are in the cycle how you Know is it extreme fear is it extreme Greed um you know looking at at history It shows you that extreme fear it's not Always the bottom right I mean like in April of 2018 we hit extreme fear right And and in in June of 2018 we hit Extreme fear it's the same way like in In Q3 of 2022 we hit extreme fear and there were A lot of people confident that that was The bottom um but in fact you know we Rolled over in Q4 just like we did back Here In in 2018 so I mean it does show you That just because you go to extreme fear Does not mean that the bottom is in just Like when you go to extreme greed it Doesn't necessarily mean that the top is In um but it does show you where the Where the market is starting to slowly Shift right it doesn't necessarily mean The top or the bottom is in but it it Means that sentiment is starting it will

Likely start to shift in the other Direction you know sometime in the next Few months right so like you know when We hit extreme fear in May of 202 too it Certainly did not mean the bottom was in And in fact price is only marginally Above where it was back then right I Mean you can see the price was at uh Right around 36 37k in fact which is Where we are today um so if if you saw The fear and greed index hit you know Extreme fear back in May of 2022 and you Bought um you know you would have been Dismayed when you watched it drop Another 50 55% or so so those people you Know if they bought there they're only Now just getting back Into into Break Even but anyways I think It's useful tool make sure you guys Check out uh check it out you can find The the website this is what the website Looks like I will link the website in The description below thank you guys for Tuning in subscribe give the video a Thumbs up again check out the sale on Into the Crypt vers premium and I will See you guys next time bye