Bitcoin: Early Halving Year Pattern (Update)

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse today we're going To talk about Bitcoin and we're going to Provide an update on the early havinge Price action pattern that we previously Outlined if you guys like the content Make sure you subscribe to the channel Give the video a thumbs up and also Check out the sale on into the Cryptoverse premium at into the Cryptoverse Spot ETF we said that we will likely get A pullback about mid January and then After the spot ETF Occurred and we were back over here you Know at around 42k one of the things we Noted in this video over here where we Talked about the early having year Pattern is that what tends to happen is You get a dip early on in the having Year so take a look at 2024 and then Compare it to 2020 um and 2016 And 2012 right so in all cases in all prior Cases for Bitcoin sometime in Q1 there was a correction that took Bitcoin anywhere from between 15 to you Know 30% below the yearly open right so The yearly open for Bitcoin this year is 42 or sorry 42,2 79 So from 42279 a 15% drop puts you at around 36k

Okay now remember there's no guarantee It's going to play out like prior Cycles I'm just simply pointing out historical Draw Downs at this phase of the cycle Right and again in 2016 looks like the Max draw down was about 16% in 2012 it looks like Max draw down Was about 16 177% as well so far from The yearly Open at this point Bitcoin has dropped About 8 and a half% 8 to %. right so it Has been a a you know somewhat of a Substantial drop and you know it's easy To look at a drop like this and come to All sorts of Conclusions but I think it's also Important to you know to try to stay as True to the Chart as we can and say well Look at this point this correction has Not evolved into anything more than what We've already seen it doesn't mean that It can't but if you were to look at the Pullback in February of 2023 going into March was about a 22% drop and then this Drop here right was about a 21% drop This drop here was also about a 21% drop And coincidentally enough this drop so Far has been about a 21% drop so while It certainly has felt like a large Pullback right I mean 48 49k all the way Down to 39K it is still it's still Within the realm realm of what we have Seen over the last year um so if it were To fall to the 20we

SMA or the bull marks wor been it would Actually have to fall further than it Has fallen during these other three Prior Corrections the one way that both Could be true where we go to the Bullmark SW band but Bitcoin doesn't Fall too much further would be if it Just takes a while and you know the 20we SMA just sort of slowly curls up here Right and then you know bitcoin price Action just sort of Fades into that Something like that could happen in fact That has what has been happening for Bitcoin price action in a lot of these Prior Corrections is that it kind of Slowly faded back to it and like here's An example where it was still above it And we got to pop back up and then it Still faded back down a few weeks later And we had a long Wick down same thing Over here right it got close didn't make It to the bullmark squ band and then it Popped back up only then a few weeks Later only then drop back down again Right So those sorts of patterns could of Course repeat themselves you know you Could go to the 20we SMA but it doesn't Mean that you have to immediately drop To it um if it were to play out like These prior Patterns and looking at say like the Short-term risk that we were talking About in the last video it's a slow

Process down right where the where the Extension from the 20we SMA just sort of slowly goes back down To where we get back to that bull market Support band right so you know we are Getting relatively close um again just To reiterate while I talk about the Short-term stuff I do not think it makes Sense to try to time the market in this Way Uh you know for me as I've said before I Buy when the risk is low the risk Metric's low and then I I take profits When the risk levels are high um but I I Don't try to time each individual move Based on on this sort of Outlook one Other thing that we could look at is That 50-day moving average we covered That a little bit as well so the 50-day SMA uh for Bitcoin we have fallen below It about about 10% you can see that Prior drops below the 50-day SMA were Closer to that one was about 14% this One was about 14% And then this one Right here was about 14% so if it were If Bitcoin were to drop 14% below the 50-day SMA from where it you know sort Of crossed down a 14% drop actually puts It at around 37k you know we we've Mentioned a lot that sort of those High The high 30k range is going to be where You know if the Bulls are going to hold The line that's where they're going to Want to do it in this high 30k range um

And so here we are right we're in the High 30k range we'll see if that happens The other thing of course to just to Remain aware of is the the 100 we Estimate right or sorry yeah this is the The 100 we moving average so this is Sort of like a A different scenario where if the Market Support ban doesn't hold like 2019 right if it if it doesn't hold then The 100 we ese is I think what you would Look towards next so the 100 we ese is Currently around 28k which Coincidentally is is sort of slowly Starting to go back up to where the Prior breakout Zone was right slow Slowly starting to go back up so if it Plays out like this and we get a drop Below the bullmark support band sometime In the next couple of months then I Think you would be looking towards that That 100 we moving average um as as sort Of the next level that that could Theoretically hold as Support there's other ways that we can Look at the market as well there's the Uh the fear the fear and greed Index This has been putting in um you can see That it has been putting in higher lows And higher highs for a while so the Current fear and greed index reading is At 48 so this one might be a one to keep An eye on the prior low was all the way Down at 30 right all the way down at at

30 so a pretty big drop that we got back In September so um we'll see if this one Can can do that same thing again if it If it puts in a lower low then that Could be a sort of a sign that the trend Is changing but otherwise I would look To see if it if it continues the Pattern so this is sort of just you know I just wanted to provide an update on on This early year having pattern where Bitcoin does get this Pullback And and it's actually sorry it's Actually happened several times in fact And in fact in in both of the last two Cycles when it had this Pullback again this is just a fact right It's not a this is not a this is what Ben thinks this is just a fact in both Of the last two cycles when Bitcoin had A pullback in q1 we tested both the Bullmark sport band and the 100 we Moving average right so it happened Right here and then in the last Cycle it happened right Here but in both cases when we held Support one we didn't in both Cases both of those were eventually Tagged so we're getting kind of close Right and I don't want to give you the Impression that there's a guarantee that We even drop to the 20we ese you know The market Can surprise and you know I mean it's

Always possible that it it it gets a pot Back up and and then leaves everyone Second guessing themselves for another Two months um so that's why I say I Would just I would come up with a Strategy stick to it whether it's based On risk levels or something else stick To it and um go forward like that as far As altcoins go because I I I see people Ask me about altcoins in the comments a Lot as far as altcoins go they're always As always they're going to be dependent On bitcoin if Bitcoin bounces then it Would likely raise the altcoin market up If Bitcoin drops then the altcoin market Will get wrecked even harder so for Instance to get back to the bullmark Sport band for Bitcoin to get back to Say the 21 week EMA it's only about a 5% Drop whereas for the altcoin market to Get back to that Level 21 we EMA it's about a 7 to8 8% Drop right so you can see how the Altcoin market is is more volatile as The as these moves play out and that's One of the reasons why we see the Bitcoin dominance just kind of slowly Keep grinding up because as Bitcoin Falls back into the bull market support Band that's exactly what happens is alts Fall a bit harder if you think back to Earlier in 2023 there was a period over Here where Bitcoin was falling back into The bull market support band and if you

Were to Overlay Bitcoin dominance onto The chart you can see the dominance was Starting to go up before we got that Bounce right before that bounce occurred And so whether we get a bounce or not it Seems likely that dominance would Continue to go up as this move continues Right and even in this move over here There were some weeks where Bitcoin Popped back up I mean like it it got Pretty close to the 20we SMA and then it Got a a 5% weekly candle right a 5% Weekly candle from the current price Would put Bitcoin back at you know 42k Or So so just trying to give people you Know the perspective here on the market And to say look I mean I I I know that It it certainly seems like this has been A large pullback but at this point it's Actually been a pretty standard pullback And when you look at the year-to date Roi of this year compared to 2016 it's Actually pretty closely still following It right now again if if a Black Swan Event were to occur if if the economy Were to slow down then yes we could Deviate from this stuff that that's Exactly what happened in 2020 right I Mean we we deviated from it and we had a Much larger drop but I'm just trying to Show you that every single cycle early On in the having year we've had a drop In q1 that took us you know between 15

To 30% below the yearly open this cycle That would Correspond you know to hitting the high 30k range which is where we've been uh Even going a bit lower would still be Within the realm of historical Norms this reaction is going to be a Very important reaction okay because if It bounces which is what it you know you Can see there's examples over here where It gets to the 20we estimate and then Bounces if it bounces Then the dominance of Bitcoin should Absolutely soar and if that is the case Then I imagine ether Bitcoin would would Likely take a Hit so again probably going it's Probably going to stay relatively boring For a little bit longer you know in Terms of thinking about a mid January Correction the the whole idea was that It would take at least a few weeks if Not a couple of months um and and so far We're we're sort of in our third week of The correction some of these Corrections Over here took a lot longer Right so I could still drag on for Another you know three to four weeks Easily and not be out of the realm of of What we've historically Seen so you know I I think that these Markets are are are exhausting for Everyone draining for everyone um There's certainly a lot of different

Views on on how things are going to play Out but again all I can stress is that It's important to have a plan and stick To it no matter what and if we do get a Larger drop then these three right if we Get a larger drop where either it goes To the to this level here or the 100 Week or even lower you need to have a Plan in place so you know how to Navigate that right you don't want to be The person that goes into it not having A plan and then you end up capitulating Something only then regret it a few Months later so make sure you have a Plan stick to it we've outlined likely Outcomes hopefully it's useful to you Guys thank you for tuning in make sure You subscribe give the video a thumbs up And I'll see you guys next time bye

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