Bitcoin: Dubious Speculation

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back Into the cryptoverse Today we're going to talk about Bitcoin Dubious speculation if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Also check out into the crypto various Premium at into the I Did want to mention that we are running A sale on into the cryptiverse premium So make sure you check that out you can Lock in that lower rate as long as you Do not cancel your subscription we of Course do have a website with thousands Of charts not only do we have crypto Charts we have charts for equities and The macro verse as well we've been using The last 18 months to really build that Out so make sure you check it out link Is in the description below and we'll Run that sale just for probably a a Couple of weeks or so let's go ahead and Jump in so so we talked a lot about this About Bitcoin Falling back down to its 20 week Estimate right fading the rally from April and right now we find ourselves With Bitcoin down about five and a half Percent on the week Now if you remember one of the the Things we've discussed this year is that Oftentimes in the pre-halving year we See about half a half down right that's What we historically see and also we

Spoke at link about how during the Prehabbing year we get both the Bears And the Bulls wrecked and once everyone Is sufficiently wrecked then sometime During the the having year we actually Generally see a much more sustained Increase in the price be that as it may Right now we are still sort of knee-deep Within the pre-halving year and so my General expectation is that the move Will ultimately get faded in the second Half of the year We have talked at length about various Outcomes supported by the data one of Which is Bitcoin falling back to the Bull market support ban and one of the Reasons that I have not been as Optimistic on on you know on crypto in The prehabbing year is one of the things That we've watched closely is the Altcoin market right and the reason why We've watched it is because we want to Better understand why is Bitcoin going Up is it going up because of some Fundamental bullishness or is it going Up because the altcoin market is Bleeding back to the Blue Chips right There's a there's a distinct difference There and that's what we need to to Remind ourselves of if you remember There's there's really two clear times Where you should compare in my opinion The current test of the 20-week moving Average right you can look towards 2019

And you can look towards 2020. And in both cases you will find evidence To support either View However the thing that I keep coming Back to is If the market is so bullish Y is total three showing extreme Weakness okay now think about this for a Minute right in 2020 when we were Holding the line when Bitcoin USD was Holding the line so two was total three It was holding line as well Showing you that there was a lot of Liquidity coming into the market there Were a lot of new market participants Coming in because the all coin Market Was holding a line But we know the altcoin market has not Been holding the line and fell below the 20-week SMA a month ago right a full Month ago at this point And you can see that despite everything That happened with Bitcoin total three Hasn't even gotten back above its own Bull market support ban so you could Better off think of it as a bear Market Resistance ban one of the things we've Talked about is that if Bitcoin were to Get some and we said we mentioned this a Few weeks ago we said that if Bitcoin Falls back in and then gets this bounce Back up it could be a temporary Bounce By Bitcoin USD back up to the upside but Because total three is already below its

Bull market support ban it might not Even be sufficient to get the altcoin Market back above its prior it's bull Mark scorpion it could just be a retest Of the 20 weight 20 week estimate or the 21 week EMA and a potential rejection From it right Now so far that's what we've seen in Reality at this point total three didn't Even make it to the bull market support Band but be that as it may we did at Least get a small bounce here and note That this Bounce That Failed even to get Back to the 21 Wiki ma occurred when Bitcoin bounced off of its own bull Market sport Banner mostly it almost Made it there Bitcoin moved up about 10 Percent during that time total three Couldn't even be bothered to get back Above a spool Mark scorpion during that Same period of time and so you really Have to ask yourself right you know if There's so much liquidity pouring into Crypto Why is the altcoin market so weak right Why is the altcoin market so weak and I Will remind you in 2019 So if we go take a close look at 2019 Total three fell below the 20 week SMA The week of July 8th July 8th Wow why is that important well you might Say well does that mean we have another Month no I mean the the altcoin Market's Already below it but the reason it's

Important as I want to remind you is That total three fell below the 20 week Estimate back on July 8th of 2019. Sort of sending out a warning signal to Bitcoin now it's not like it had to play Out like this but remember Bitcoin USD Did not fall below its 20 week SMA on July 8th like the altcoin market did in Fact on July 8th Bitcoin was still near Its prior High it wasn't until late September that Bitcoin saw the Capitulation with the capitulation Candle below its bull market sport band Sort of confirming that we were in fact In a renewed downtrend and and that Downtrend was likely going to last for Some time we ended up fading it for Basically the rest of the year We rallied into the recession and then We came down okay now anytime I mention This anyone a lot of people sort of Don't like the fact that I gloss over Everything that happened with the Pandemic as if it's not you know as if It's just something to sort of just Gloss over and not and not talk about How it how it was a Black Swan at the End of the day We had an inverted dual curve in 2019. Okay It did not predict the pandemic right We're not suggesting that an inverted Yield curve predicted the pandemic that Would be that would be silly right it

Would be silly to assume that but if you Go look at again if you look at Treasure Yield spread so we're just looking at The three month of the 10-year yield the Spread on the three month and the 10-year yield we had an inverted yield Curve and normally it means a recession Comes upon the uninversion that's what It normally means now it doesn't tell You what event is going to cause it Because I mean a lot of times that look The narrative does not drive the price The price drives the narrative okay so In this case an inverted yield curve It's not going to tell you the exact Reason that the market is going to go Down But what it does suggest is that upon The uninversion the economy is going to Be in a relatively fragile state and it Only takes one more thing to really tip It over the edge and yes in 2020 it Happened to be the pandemic I'm not Suggesting that the inverted yield curve Predicted the pandemic but what I am Suggesting is that the inverted yield Curve predicted that the economy was Sick and it only took one more thing to Send it over the edge okay so again That's basically what happened right I Mean we we faded the second half of the Year we rallied into the recession and Then and then we actually got the Recession it was a very quick recession

Imagine what would have happened had the FED not printed six trillion dollars We'll never know and even in the next Recession they'll probably they'll Probably print at some point they might Not print as quickly as they did this Time also there might not be a Capitulation as quickly as there was This time remember last time that that We saw this capitulation by Bitcoin it Was on the back of the unemployment rate Skyrocketing to basically 10 or more Almost overnight right more than 10 Percent you know 14 15 almost overnight So if instead the unemployment rate just Sort of slowly goes up Then it might be a more you know slow Systematic bleed based on on you know The rate at which the unemployment rate Is going up rather than some type of Major capitulation crash right like we Could see something like that play out And it could be a lot of a lot of people Sort of really wanting the FED to Pivot Uh and get us back to QE but they they Might be somewhat resistant to do that In the short term Bitcoin is now below The bull market sport band now is this Relevant not really not yet because the Week is still pretty young I mean it's Only Monday who knows where it's going To be by by Sunday night you know we Could be back back you know we could be Back above it and the wick be nothing

More than a wick But it is at least sending off a warning Sign total three sent off the warning Sign back in in a month ago Because you know everyone and by the way We keep seeing this I I I pointed out on Twitter right all this all season stuff Trending and whatnot and I I kept saying Well you know if if you're expecting an All season who are you expecting to buy Your bags right you always have to think About well you know if if there's all These meme coins are pumping and Views Across crypto YouTube are going down and Followers to crypto Twitter analysts are Are are fading and followers to Exchanges on Twitter are fading at least The rate of new ones you know if all of That is fading then you have to ask Yourself who is going to be there To buy your bags right and you know we Talked about this on the last uh you Know the last one as well like if you Look at the social risk right the social Risk I think is is is relevant to talk About and it's been slowly decreasing For a long time remember in 2020 when Bitcoin held the line What was going on the Socialist it was Slightly going down once once price uh Pulled back but it was still it was Still trending higher right it was Putting in a series of higher lows Meaning people were coming into the

Cryptoverse okay there was there Continued to be a net Improvement in Social interest really since the end of 2018 higher lows what are we what are we Witnessing this time so far we're seeing Lower lows we have not yet seen a Sustained Trend reversal on the social Risk to me this continues to suggest That there are still some people who are Likely going to capitulate at least on Their altcoin positions they might go Back to USD they might go back to Bitcoin they they I don't know right I Don't know what they're going to do Maybe they throw them into some meme Coins and get wrecked that way but the Point is that until this really bottoms Out There still is this idea that the Altcoin market the altcoin Reckoning Does continue okay because look the Other way to look at this too is Bitcoin Where it stands right now is currently 23. we need to drop another 23 just to Get back to its March low Total three the altcoin market it's Already almost there you know I mean it Would only need to drop it out three or Four percent and it's already back to Its Mar it's March low so again to me What this continues to suggest is that The liquidity that a lot of people are Are kind of expecting to lead them to an All season is not yet Justified it's

Just it's just not and and that's Captured by the fact that the social Risk continues to go down And it's also captured by the fact that You still have had Bitcoin closing above The 20-week estimate I mean I get it I Know it's below it right now and we Could get a weekly close below it and we Could fade 2019 just like we or we could Fade 2023 just like we faded 2019. That's a distinct possibility But even though we don't yet have a Weekly close on bitcoin we've had Several on total three not one of which Over the last month has shown any Strength whatsoever It's just been a slow systematic lead Back down in the same way that it did in 2019 right it was just a slow systematic Bleed by the way by the time that Bitcoin actually fell below its 20 we Got some a back in in 2019 remember it Was in September in late September in Fact You know by this point total three had Been below its bullmark sport band for a Couple of months so again the whole idea Is that the altcoin market in 2019 Provided the war warning signal weeks Before Bitcoin USD followed below its Own 20-week SMA and I know that we're Below the 20 week SMA right now because We're now at 25 619 and by the way the Twin week SMA is at 26 192 that's 21 key

Amazing 25822. so we are currently below It We could pop back above it by the you Know by the end of the week but let me Talk about one of the things I am uh I Am worried about in in terms of in terms Of the relative health of the Cryptocurrency market okay Now we're going to relate this to the s P So we've talked before about how total Three gave the warning sign To bitcoin and said you know what Things aren't looking great you know Liquidity's drying up it's no longer Going to be able to really support the Bitcoin rally for too much longer gave The warning sign in 2019 Bitcoin Eventually fell below okay Bitcoin is Already below its 20 week SMA right now It is Where the potential issue is is the Stock market If you think about what has transpired In equities it has basically just been Up only for weeks take a look at the NASDAQ it has been essentially up only For weeks at some point there will Likely be a mean reversion trade meaning That everyone who comes in and Yolo's in At a new local high gets wrecked right That's what the market does it goes up a Lot in over a certain period of time Everyone Yolo's in they get wrecked then

It goes down for a while everyone sells At the bottom then they get wrecked Right At some point I would imagine over the Coming weeks we will see a mean Reversion trade where we see the NASDAQ Come back down now listen guys no one is Taking the RSI to the bank okay we know That no one's taking the RSI to the bank But I will point out that we are at Least if we go look at say like a daily Time frame over here you know we are Getting pretty high up here on on The Daily RSI and you know normally when it Gets this High we're not too far away From at least a pullback in the not so Distant future one of the things I Wanted to mention though is when you Look at the NASDAQ in 2019 what was Going on what's going on right here That justified Bitcoin going back up to Much higher levels the NASDAQ was Putting in new highs It's not yet putting in new highs right I mean it hasn't put in new highs And I mean it still is maybe trying to Close this Gap up here that I'm sure That some people would like to see get Filled but the point is that what Happened in July you can see there's a Pullback here in may we we put in a new High but in the summer the NASDAQ saw a Seven or eight percent correction Furthermore

The S P 500 in 2019 was also putting in New highs Right It's not today They would have to Rally a good a good Amount today to get anywhere close to New Alzheimer's it's not it's not close To New all-time highs right now but look What happened in it to the s p in in July we got about a seven percent move To the downside okay Why is that an issue and then and then It and then it came back down again These Corrections by the s p Were absorbed and we went to New highs In late 2019. Bitcoin did not right Crypto is further along the risk curve Than equities Equities can climb the wall of worry Easier than cryptocan There's a difference between a company That's turning profits you know and Making billions of dollars and the most Recent altcoin uh that that has a good Community right there's a big difference Between those two The latter needs QE it needs ideally low Interest rates it needs a good narrative Okay we're really struggling with QE Right we are in QT we have higher Interest rates and the narrative right Now is that the SEC is going after Crypto so

Crypto it it takes a lot more to get Crypto moving than it does the equity Market and that's why you see it lag so You might you know some people might be Sitting here thinking that that it's Just we're just a few days away from From Bitcoin catching up to the NASDAQ But just remember this remember this If you overlay the S P 500 to Bitcoin in 2019 you will see in fact that Bitcoin Faded while the s p continued to climb The wall of worry okay it continued to Climb the wall of worry and it wasn't Until early 2020 or the having year that Bitcoin saw its final capitulation and Then the actual bull market began Not just this sort of half up half down Nonsense that goes on the prehabbing Year Okay so It's not that dissimilar from what we've Previously seen we've seen in the Prehabbing year where the s p climbed The wall of worry and crypto faded And then it wasn't until after we had The resolution of the yield curve and The recession that everything went up Together so there's a distinct Difference here that I I think we need To remind ourselves of is that Bitcoin Does not always follow the NASDAQ okay The other thing that I I think is Important to think about with regards to Bitcoin In the same way that that you know

Bitcoin is now right around its bull Market support ban and trying to hold Out support remember total three just to Remind you is already below it okay Total three is already below it so what We talked about was if Bitcoin Fades Back down and then bounces it could just Be a rejection of total three by the 20-week SMA now let's carry that line of Reasoning to the equity Market okay if Equities if if the s p let's go over Here to the s p if the s p were to get Some type of mean reversion back down Then what happens to bitcoin if the s p Drops five percent but bitcoin's already Below its fullmark scorpion That's basically what happened right in In 2019 and remember too you know the s P had a correction an eight percent Correction when it hit forty one hundred It then had a nine percent correction When it hit 4200 we're now basically we Just hit around 4 300. so there is this Idea of you know what if if the s p gets Some type of even a five percent Correction or if it's like a 10 Correction and you already have Bitcoin Below its 20 week estimate if and when The s p gets that mean reversion trade Then that's how you sort of see crypto Fade in the second half of the year Because while the s p might just be Getting some type of mean reversion Where it goes back down in the short

Term right like it could do something Like this it could fade and then and Then rally back up in the second half of The year Climbing the wall of worry until we get You know we get a either a potential Recession Bitcoin might already have thrown in the Towel because it's already back below The 20 because of may just like it was In 2019. just like it was in 2019 right Remember the s p went up crypto went Down for the second half of 2019. okay So that is is something that I I think We need to constantly remind ourselves Of is that Bitcoin does not always Follow the NASDAQ it does not always Follow the S P 500 in fact historically What what we normally need to see with The NASDAQ is new highs for Bitcoin to Really you know to really do well I mean Guys again in 2019 when Bitcoin went up 4X even in the prehabbing year 2019 it Still wasn't a new high the NASDAQ was Putting in new highs the NASDAQ was Putting in new highs in late 2019 and 2020 it had this capitulation but then It still was putting a new horizon in Mid to late 2020 as well and and Bitcoin Did very well so The NASDAQ is still not at new highs Okay and I mean you know you might say Well you know maybe it is going to go to New highs hey maybe you're right I don't

Know what I do know is I look at this Chart and I'm expecting some type of Mean reversion at some point all right Um I'm not saying that it has to play Out as as bad as as it did over here I'm Not really expecting the NASDAQ to Correct 83 percent I mean so far it's About a 30 something percent correction But a Counterpoint is that you know back Over here If you look at where this the NASDAQ Rally to back in Crash you can See that it basically rallied right back Above the the 618 which I think is is is More or less where it is right now maybe Slightly above it just like it was back Then so there is still I think some Reason again right yeah just above 620. So I think there is still some reason to Be cautious in general but do note that Just like 2019 the equity Market can Climb the wall of worry even if crypto Refuses to do so right even if crypto is Stuck in traffic on struggle Street Equities can still often do well as long As there's not a an imminent recession Risk and we are starting to see Recession risk come back at least with The unemployment rate starting to move Higher and and we we I just put out a 68 Uh 68 tweet thread on Twitter going Through a lot of the different recession Indicators some of which they were in a Recession some of which say we're not in

A recession some service sessions coming Some say it's nowhere close look you're Gonna find you're gonna find reasons to Believe what you want to believe Um you don't really have to look that Far But I I you know my my sort of thinking Is is if the altcoin market is so Bullish Why are people leaving right here when Bitcoin held the line social risk was Going up Here it's going down okay that's what's Happening right now and the other thing To consider is when you look at total Three divided by the market cap of Bitcoin we talked about this as well it It sort of seems like an oscillator Right kind of used to get this ebb and Flow from one extreme to the other No I'm sure someone's gonna want me to Talk about the dominance and believe me I like talking about it too but we also Mentioned many times that the dominance After a substantial rally could get some Type of long consolidation not that Dissimilar from what we have seen Many many times Consolidation Consolidation have to remove higher Consolidation guess where all three of These ultimately found support Well you have the 100 day as as one Potential stop

That's currently coming in at around 47 Percent You also Have The bull Mark scorpion right as as a a Potential line for the Bitcoin dominance To defend so while Bitcoin USD is below Its 20 week SMA as we speak the Dominance is not and I would argue that If we get weekly closes below the 20-week SMA then you likely would see The altcoin market bleed back to bitcoin Just like they did in 2019 right Remember if you if you go look at total Three and and you look at let's go look At say the monthly Candles Where did alts get wrecked right they Got wrecked here And they also got wrecked again here and They got wrecked again here and they Kept bleeding against Bitcoin for the Most part during that entire phase okay So you could argue that we sort of Completed this one and now we're in sort Of the second phase right so this is Your your sort of your primary bear Market one one this is your your fade of The prehabbing year which is two which Is arguably what we're in right now and Then maybe the grand finale is the the Rise of the altcoin market as you rally Into a recession right and when you when You see the uninversion of the yield

Curve and then that would be three And then at that point then I might get Interested in the altcoin market if that Opportunity presents itself if it Doesn't present itself then hey I'm a Fixed income investor instead of an Altcoin investor but that's what I'm Arguing in terms of the altcoin market Is that it tends to just get wrecked not Only in the bear Market year but also The prehabbing year and maybe even the Early stages of the having year as well Okay Now something else I wanted to mention Is that if you look at the monthly Hikanashi candles for Bitcoin it Actually has turned red okay now at this Point there's not sufficient evidence to Know again if it's going to stay red or Not but we have talked about the general Idea of seeing this rally fade and last Month we saw you know we had a we saw This this candle sort of have the the Upper part of the body of the candle Lower than the prior month just like we Had in 2019 and then so far this monthly Candle has in fact turned red so if it Is going to follow the ghost of its 2019 Self then it could just mean that we Just see Bitcoin sort of slowly fade for The next several months right like that Is a a distinct outcome that is Worthwhile to consider again it is now a Monthly hiking sheet

Candle that is red If you just look on normal candles you Can see that in fact we did get a Monthly close last month down seven Percent and then so far this month is Already down about seven percent as well Uh sort of again going of the opinion Right that we get half up and half down In the pre having year and arguably we Are in that downward process as we speak Okay one of the other things I wanted to Mention as well is going back to this Metric that we were following not too Long ago and that is the the stable coin Supply ratio oscillator because this Rally the the stable coin Supply ratio Oscillator went to the same level in 2019. look at this look at the line Across the page right same level in 2019. And it did not Mark the high for Bitcoin Right it did not you can see that we we Ended up getting one more move higher For Bitcoin just like we did over here In 2023 right we did get another move Higher but then after that final move Higher We faded for the next like eight nine Months and the Civil Quints biracial Oscillator slowly came back down and We're watching that happen right now The stable coin Supply ratio oscillator Is is slowly coming back down to earth Remember again we do have the sale going

On for into the crypto virus premium so Make sure you check it out link is in The description below So that's a metric that I think we have To remind ourselves of is look saw Something similar in 2019 We still just fade in the second half of The year okay and and there's plenty of You know there's plenty of different Things that you can uh look at and and By the way if we just look at where we Are on this curve you can see it's it's 48 below the uh the fair value Regression trend line Um but anyways you know Bitcoin as it Stands oftentimes in prehabbing years What normally happens is people get Excited they call for new highs those Highs do not materialize and and then Both sides Get Wrecked now how do both Sides Get Wrecked right well you go into The Year everyone calls for a recession We don't get it the Bears Get Wrecked Then halfway through the year everyone's Calling for new highs we don't get it The Bulls get wrecked by the end of the Year everyone is sufficiently wrecked And then and and only after we get back To likely QE Can we see those sustained pushes to to New all-time highs so I want to remind You that you know my goal with this Channel is not to just be a a blind bull Or a blind bear I think there's always

Going to be some reasons to be bullish And there's always going to be some Reasons to be bearish one reason Potentially to think that Bitcoin could Have renewed strength is that the Dominance is still relatively low Suggesting that there could be Sufficient liquidity in the altcoin Market to lead to another move to buy Bitcoin not necessarily to a new yearly High but just maybe up enough to really Break the dominance above 49 the Counterpoint again though is that in 2022 we saw the dominance rally you know Quite a bit even when Bitcoin USD was Going down so I don't really think it's It's necessary to have that for the Dominance to break about 49 but I do Think the dominance is on its path to Ultimately breaking above 49 percent Even of course in the short even if if Even of course if in the short term the Dominance has pulled back down to around That 47 level but again even in that Case we're still above the bulmark Square BET right it's still above it uh And has plenty of wiggle room right Plenty of wilgram uh on the dominance And still trying to stab about the 20 Week estimate which is not really the Same thing you can't really say the same Same thing about Bitcoin USD you can't See that say the same thing about total 2 which includes eth right total two is

Is getting back below its bull Mark Swap And total three really never had a Chance total is also below the bull Mark's Work and at this point it could Just be a wick we'll have to follow it Up uh later on this week to see you know Where It ultimately ends up but again in The same way that total three is already Below the 20 Bitcoin is now potentially Testing below it total two already had a Weekly closed below it what happens if The s p gets a pullback and bitcoin's Already at the 20 week it you know the Issue is that if it's already at the 20 Week then it has no wiggle room to go Down with the S P 500 and if the s p Gets that five or ten percent mean Reversion correction then uh then that Could send Bitcoin well below the 20 Week estimate and sort of cement in the Idea of fading in the second half of the Year anyways if you guys like the Content make sure you subscribe to the Channel give the video a thumbs up and Again check out the sale on into the Cryptographers premium at into the links in the description Below I'll see you guys next time bye


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